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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    Eh, that article is a dream of the author, not anything SIRI has indicated they will be doing...

    Sirius XM / Netflix in the title probably pulls good views though!
    Jan 28 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    Well the current ratio values SIRI at a haircut to current share price. Would take ... I dunno rough eyeball guess... 10%? improvement just to value SIRI where it is today vs. LMCA. I'm out so I can't really dig into it that much but with LMCA down and SIRI up / flat the ratio ends up being a "bad" offer. It only works if LMCA is high and it no longer is.

    The lower LMCA goes, assuming SIRI stays stable or increases, the worse of a position LMCA is in on this deal.

    As time ticks on here I see the likelyhood of the deal going through as more of a remote possibility. Too much deviation here and LMCA would have to offer too much of LMCA to get this done ...
    Jan 28 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I dunno... I find run ups into earnings end up being disappointing afterwards. I've found dips or flats into earnings to provide better results. SIRI really hasn't had a run up into earnings that has held.

    Then again if you're just looking to quick flip trade in and out, that run up would probably be welcome...
    Jan 28 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    There's a nice little boost to VRNG for you. I almost bought that and held it after Altucher's article a long time ago... I did buy for a trade but exited shortly after. Not something I wanted to keep up on and it's a complicated stock. For me to remain in was a hope and a prayer and I'm uncomfortable with that.
    Jan 28 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I don't believe it ever was... More of a curiosity than anything. At least this data point lets you see where the traders have placed on the LMCA / SIRI arb. There's a little bit of usefulness to that, but moreso for a trader. For the most part it's irrelevant to a long.
    Jan 28 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I like Stern :)
    Jan 28 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    The heart is blue cuz it's been so cold, perhaps.
    Jan 28 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    Yes but I can't go on that assumption when considering a target based on siri... I have to invest with the noise out of the picture. Once the noise solidifies I can adjust.
    Jan 28 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I guess Liberty could say that that would be the maximum they would allow themselves to be paid.... but typically seller sets the low and buyer sets the high....
    Jan 28 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I really don't want to get into the manipulation thing. Conversation on that goes nowhere and is like the Seinfeld episode where they talk about write offs....

    $5 target is explained above in response to amp61. I don't think the deal is a sure thing here, and for now I'll continue to invest in SIRI based on SIRI. If we get an offer for a vote I'll reconsider at that time.
    Jan 28 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    That really wouldn't make any sense as the top end of the hedge protects SIRI and not LMCA...
    Jan 28 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I have no idea unfortunately.
    Jan 28 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I did for a few days... but that was only necessitated by the options I had expiring. I bought mostly shares but picked up a 1,000 contract block of the $2.50's at $1.30 on Friday to add to what $2.50's I had.

    Not so heavy in options this time. The offer has my plan messed up which was a simple $2.50 / $4.50 spread. Premiums on the out of money options are far too weak now. Could have previously entered into that for $1 shooting for a double by year's end over $4.50. Now too much uncertainty with the deal to mess with an option play like that in my opinion.
    Jan 28 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    I'm considering Siri on its own without a deal. I do not feel the deal is a guarantee. Part of the reason for the offer, in my opinion, was the relative gap to how SIRI and LMCA were trading at the time (LMCA relatively overvalued vs. SIRI at the time of the offer).

    Even with that valuation on LMCA the ratio offered was scoffed at.

    Now the valuation is about 10% lower since LMCA has fallen. SIRI has risen a bit. LMCA would have to offer a better ratio just to come in at the same previous valuation.

    Given that it seems many SIRI holders do not feel the original valuation / offer was fair, it's reasonable to expect that the deal would need to be bettered in SIRI holder's favor to pass. 10% again?

    Is LMCA willing to give up that much? Another 20% over the original offer? More if LMCA continues to fall?

    LMCA holders also have to approve this if / when SIRI holders do.

    Malone / LMCA doesn't need to do this deal and neither does SIRI... I'm continuing along with the deal just as it is... an offer on the table. If something is put to a vote by SIRI holders I'll pay a bit more attention.
    Jan 28 09:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Rapidly Falling While Liberty's Triples [View article]
    It would have made sense to cover below 3.40 but since the largest decrease was not when pricing was at that level then it points to shorts not covering as much in that area. One *could* assume covering was done post announcement at or towards the upper end in the $3.80's.

    Would have made more sense to cover at a nickle ...

    The part that sounds backwards is backwards.

    LMCA set the hedge on their $500 mil sellback to SIRI and would not sell below the lower bound in the $3.60's. They aren't required to sell below that level as there's a minimum sell back price. SIRI pushing out the buyback to April in agreement with LMCA is a different thing.
    Jan 28 07:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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