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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM started at Buy by Gabelli, seeing bullish options action [View news story]
    "A quick question ---what are the number of shares tied up in Options by Liberty Media?"

    Zero. Been that way for a very long time now...

    "Noticed Siri at 3.71 ----next on downside is $3.65 as I recall."

    No. Next on downside after $3.71 is $3.70....

    "End of October earnings."

    What about it?
    Sep 29, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    I'm not sure why LMCA would care to have SIRI break through $4 per share while both SIRI and LMCA are under heavy repurchase plans.

    The time to want it higher is after you are done buying not before.

    So I am not sure the company cares to do anything to drive the share price north of $4.

    I wonder why FBN securities can state definitively that Liberty plans to close the gap soon... what's their source? Or are they simply guessing and it's a "might plan" and not a "plans to"?
    Sep 21, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM started at Buy by Gabelli, seeing bullish options action [View news story]
    "I have 2 questions that you may be able to answer. Is it possible that the large, ongoing buyback program is helping to keep it rangebound by essentially setting a ceiling price?"

    How would a buyer keep the price down, exactly, other than to set the upper limit to a purchase price and thus remove their buys above that point and hope others would sell near it?

    "And how can you tell if retail investors are moving out of the stock?"

    There are a number of shares outstanding. There is a requirement that institutions report their holdings. Liberty Media owns a fixed number. The rest are tied up in options.

    Thus the retail percent can be calculated after each reporting period.
    Sep 20, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM started at Buy by Gabelli, seeing bullish options action [View news story]
    Short interest can't be taken in a vacuum either. Someone can be short 10 million shares against 80,000 options one day and long 10 million shares the next. If the reporting date of the short interest falls on one day it shows 150 million shares short, and if the reporting date falls on the next it shows 140 million shares short.

    Useless information when considering the small moves. Short interest is up since July. Hell in May it was 139 million shares and now it's 152 million shares. Is it really "dropping" or is it only "dropping" when considering the last two data points?

    Everything recovered quickly in the recent correction.

    SIRI has been set to break out higher for the majority of this year. Needs a reason to do so. Until or unless that happens it'll just drag along as it has been. I can point you to plenty of people still left who are "just waiting for $4 per share" (again... go figure) to sell out, along with plenty of traders happy to sell at $4 per share with the intention to buy back lower, along with plenty of option holders willing to hedge at $4 per share or even willing to short at $4 per share...

    Who is going to buy heavily at $4 per share when they can get it for less, currently? And the buyback won't drive it over $4 per share on its own.

    Needs news. Could be as simple as an earnings beat. Could be as simple as an overall market break. Could be more complex.
    Sep 20, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM started at Buy by Gabelli, seeing bullish options action [View news story]
    "One bull bet on the company yesterday in a big way: 21,000 November 4 calls bought yesterday in a single print. Total call volume on Sirius XM was over 22,700, over nine times its daily average."

    Bull bet? You sure? What if those options are a hedge on a short? Was the 80,000 $4 calls purchased earlier in the year (actually, rolled out from an earlier expiration at the time) a "bull bet"? Or was it a hedge which allowed the individual to capitalize more safely by shorting at or near $4 and covering over, and over, and over again?

    It is a massive mistake to suggest that any option position exists in a vacuum and it is absolutely impossible to know what the buyer or seller of options has or doesn't have hedged against that position.

    What about the seller of these options? Is that not a bear bet? Because there is a seller here, too.

    What about the December $4's entered into a couple days ago? Bull bet? Bear bet from the seller's side? Short hedge?

    OptionMonster's "HeatSeeker" system is junk. The "articles" they fire off about this rubbish is templated, and the analysis ignores anything beyond the superficial.
    Sep 18, 2015. 07:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Not sure if it is or it isn't. Not looking to time the market.

    Some may sell SIRI and not buy other stuff that goes up... they may buy something that goes down. There was a guy on here literally posting every day about how he sold out of SIRI and got into "metals and miners" and how everyone should take a little or all off the table and do the same and how metals and miners were going up and how "I love goooollllllld!" with his little picture of Austin Powers / Goldmember and whatnot.

    After a couple months of that, never heard from him again. Ever. And Gold, metals, and miners, have all tanked out.

    My question is why you bought $3.82 if you feel the market is due to roll over? That does not make sense. "The bull market is almost over" and "I just bought" are conflicting.
    Aug 30, 2015. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    If that makes you feel better to think that way...
    Aug 30, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    No no guy before you said Sirius XM is "toast" if interest rates rise.

    He also said "So hears your sign" which makes absolutely no sense, either.
    Aug 30, 2015. 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriusXM Ups Share Buyback To $8 Billion [View article]
    Bring Iran in. The cheaper energy is the better for the masses.

    Got oil within 6% of my $35 target but I didn't pull the trigger... will see if waiting was the right decision or if I missed the chance. Certainly has had a nice bounce.

    Not saying I want you guys to lose money but I still think oil / silver / gold have a ways to fall here...
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "You have never been on the board, and I have been"

    Yeah you're on or have been on the SIRI board and that Duke guy is a 19 year old girl in college. Right.

    Someone on the SIRI board would not be playing crazy commentator on SIRI articles.

    "When (not if) institutional investors start complaining that Malone is getting, in their view, excessive ownership via buybacks they will make Malone abandon buybacks unless Malone joins them."

    More stupidity. Institutional investors have been reducing their holdings by number of shares and selling into the buyback as their percentage of a constantly decreasing number of shares has dropped. None of them are or will be complaining. And non of them can or will "make" Malone do anything. They're on for the ride. Well guided or misguided as the case may be.

    Once an entity has the proper percentage of ownership it can FORCE the remaining holders. Ya think these institutions holding shares will play hardball with Malone and there's going to be some big fight and you're gonna hide in the corner of it all and benefit to the tune of 20 - 40% premium and line your pockets?

    You have a rude awakening coming for you, Mr Know It All :)
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Taxes should be minimal. Satellite expense is an expense, thus will reduce taxable income. Can't put them in the same basket because one expense eliminates or reduces the other.

    Higher rates may mean less or no borrowing for buybacks as time wears on (a "problem" that will be known ahead of time, if it's a problem at all). And SIRI generates enough to pay for the satellite expenses coming up.

    Expenses are, generally, percentages of income so lower income in the case of some disastrous issue knocking subs down doesn't necessarily mean the company will have problems paying for content, at least not on the music side of things.

    Interest rates rising should be expected at some point and will not result in the company becoming "toast." That's an absolutely stupid statement.

    '08 and '09 was a completely different set of circumstances. SIRI is "different" today.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "Yes, it is not right or fair or whatever you call it that Malone is getting a larger piece of siri with buybacks for nothing"

    Yes, its' fair.

    "My answer is NEVER. As Maffei keeps saying, the last share is the most expensive one... and it may very well be mine."

    That's patently stupid. If your shares are the last shares you have no say. You can't hold a tenth of a percent of the company and block / guide anything. You're along for the ride. That's all.

    The last share is the most expensive is just like saying you always find something the last place you look. But hey, maybe you'll be right and get $4.19 for your share, right? :)

    "The original deal was doomed because of the exchange price and concern and fear that Malone may spend siri's cash on his cable deals. "

    Again speculation. You can't possibly prove this. The original deal was never brought for a vote. But here you are posting in definitive terms that what you say is true. What, because other people had the same opinion? The cable dreams thing? I and others are of a different opinion. The offer was made at a time LMCA was worth a historical premium to valuation and thus it made an attractive point to attempt to push this through as LMCA could offer a near 5% premium to SIRI holders in the proposed deal.

    Cable "dreams"? No.

    "Malone withdrew because he realized that he would be voted down and embarrassed."

    Prove it.

    "Now that the his cable business is spun off another offer, if it is right, has much better chance to pass."

    It does?

    "If it is not right he will get another, this time much fatter cake on his face."

    He will? And to say "another" he would have had to get one to begin with.

    I have never seen an investor base in a stock with so many individuals who make derogatory comments about the one who has ALL the control. Dancing around in the streets because some off the cuff deal never went through and pretending that they somehow won this great victory... while they sit there for 2 years bragging about it as the share price drags and everyone around them sells out to the one in control, giving that one more and more control every single day.

    The only victory you could possibly hope to achieve is solidarity among the minority and, no, "LOL," that ain't happening. A fragmented bunch easily corralled off into different pens and dissected at will if they don't die from old age. The rest get folded into the controlling entity no matter what they want or think, despite years of holding out, because when you're that far into the minority you do not matter one bit. Fleas on a camel's back.

    "Malone will NEVER get siri via buybacks. No one will let him."

    Time will tell, but time is telling that LMCA IS getting SIRI via buybacks because your fellow longs are happy to sell back and help LMCA reach that point.

    And more will sell.

    And more.

    But you claim no one will let them / him? Dunno dude... history is proving you COMPLETELY WRONG.

    To be clear here I am not saying those holding will not eventually benefit... I believe they will, but you say a lot of things that you can't prove and you seem to lack a certain understanding of what a majority holder can accomplish. You can hang on and ride along in kind with the majority holder (which you are doing, so learn to love it / him) or you can fall off the wagon with your fellow longs along the way.

    Or you can post about imaginary cake.
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    It increases ALL holder's percentage of ownership.

    LMCA's percentage CAN NOT increase if existing holders DO NOT sell into the buyback as there would be NO shares available. All shares are WILLINGLY sold into the buyback. Period. Hold your shares and you benefit the exact same as LMCA does.

    "However, at some point the independent directors will have to stop the buybacks unless Malone agrees to sell back some. "

    You can't make this claim. Sirifair you spread a TON of misinformation. What you just said should read that this is your GUESS.
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    "He tried...;!!! Got a fat cake on his face. Another try like this make him look like a fool."

    Fat cake? What are you talking about? The offer was made and never voted on. All that ensued was a flurry of stupid comments (I had one myself) that SIRI investors should refuse the deal. Liberty retracted the offer.

    There were also a ton of comments about how "Malone" was doing this to "pursue his cable dreams" (as if somehow those that wrote that had any idea what in the world they were talking about).

    How is it "fat cake on his face" for LMCA to allow SIRI to buy back enough shares that the same end is reached for what amounts to ZERO premium to SIRI holders when a premium was offered in the original deal?

    Fat cake? Really?

    The only fools are people who believe that. Even worse are the ones that repeatedly scream that coming up on 2 years later, with SIRI's share price lower, LMCA's percentage higher, all for "Free."
    Aug 29, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sirius XM's Buyback Is Significant [View article]
    Why do people always post that if interest rates rise it will be a problem?

    The company isn't taking out adjustable rate loans on this stuff. It's fixed with long term maturations that the company can easily pay off.
    Aug 28, 2015. 06:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment