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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM Set To Resume Share Buybacks [View article]
    No, a year ago means a year ago. He did not say when the stock was over $4, he said a year ago. That's a crystal clear statement. Not "about a year ago" or "approximately a year ago" but "a year ago."

    I was not aware he meant when the stock was over $4 for a few days last October. When did he tell you this? I would assume if one meant "6 months ago" they would say "6 months ago" and not "a year ago."

    My response is in absolutely no way a personal attack. I am trying to understand how one can be long "a year ago" and now be down by $55K when the share price is presently above where it was "a year ago."

    Perhaps he attempted to trade and made mistakes (which would not be an issue with management). His profile indicates that he has bought / sold / bought more, etc., and that might offer explanation as well.

    His profile also says he is "getting tired of the delay." An increase of 10X+ value from $0.33 in less than 5 years isn't really a delay. That's an exceptional return. So perhaps the comments are simply exaggerations borne out of frustration due to unreasonable expectation and extreme impatience?

    "No, don't answer that."

    Answered it. The "like" button is below for your clicking pleasure.
    Apr 17 08:37 PM | 42 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    Dan,

    You and I had a discussion on twitter back in December when you shorted SIRI. At the time SIRI was trading for $2.89 and I made the suggestion you should cover the position immediately that you had just entered.

    To be clear you had tweeted on that day :

    "Short $SIRI @ 2.89. Buy 50 Jan '15 put option contracts at 2$ strike @ .27* = $1350. (Dec. 31 12:34 pm) *ask: .28 bid: .26 last: .26"

    Obviously what you do with your own money is not my personal business but since you made the trade public, I thought I would bring this up as you did not disclose that you also hold 50 Jan 2015 $2 put option contracts (unless you closed these at a loss?)

    You presently sit at a ~10% loss on your SIRI short at $2.89, and to exit your puts today at $0.14 bid would be a loss of nearly 50%. That's a tough pill to swallow.

    Does this not concern you?

    Also, outstanding positions in September 2013 $2 puts are 36, and they are about 3 cents each. That's about $100 worth if you own all of them. Trade fee and option fee here would cost you about $10 or so I am guessing? Why even enter such a position? Trades on the termination end are going to add another $10 or so there, soo you will need prices to be below $1.96 or so by September of THIS YEAR to turn a profit? To reach this level you would have to crater past even the lowest analyst estimate in the next 6 months, fight the $2 billion buyback, and grab a price John Malone couldn't even manage to get as he was pursuing control.

    Do yourself a favor. I beg of you. You're a young kid... and that money (and reputation) is worth even more because of it. Losses now can sting hard. Find an opportunity and at least cover the short, as well as those 2015 puts.....
    Mar 4 12:38 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To John Malone: You Cannot Save Sirius XM Radio [View article]
    God help us....

    "In 2009, billionaire John Malone and his Liberty Media Corporation (LMCA) negotiated a sweetheart deal in hopes to save Sirius XM (SIRI) from inevitable bankruptcy."

    Malone did not negotiate this in hopes to save Sirius XM. He negotiated this in order to capitalize on what was at the time, Sirius XM's failure.

    "Today, Sirius XM trades for $2.50, which calculates out to $9.8 billion in market capitalization."

    Wrong, don't take your info from yahoo financials. Marke cap includes the remaining preferred stake and is higher.

    "As an already impressive score, John Malone and Company's original $530 million Sirius investment is now worth $4 billion."

    $530 million was a loan which was repaid. The stake which is worth (over) $4 billion is due to the convertibles which were given for $12,500 cost, not $530 million.

    "Certainly, it would serve Malone's interests best to effectively hijack Sirius shareholders and talk them down, in order to avoid paying a premium."

    You state earlier that Liberty is near 50% already, and then follow by saying Malone's best interest is to "hijack" SIRI shareholders to talk them down so it doesn't have to pay a premium? Did you proofread your article? Does this even make sense to hypothesize this if Liberty is what amounts of a small number of shares (0.4%) away from full control? Why bother talking anyone down (who are they going to talk down anyways?) for what may amount to a million dollar savings of a multi billion dollar investment?

    "Big Media is Failing"

    This entire section... well, you know that thing cartoon charaters do when they are taken aback by something that is ridiculous / outlandish / etc? It's kinda like a boing boing boing noise as they shake their head back and forth and their eyes bug out? Congratulations on getting that response out of an actual human :P

    " Sirius' intermediate term recovery is largely due in part to Detroit bailouts and easy financing terms that have supported improved automotive and satellite radio subscription sales."

    Did you research the impact of the Detroit bailouts? "Largely due in part to"... what does this even MEAN?

    "Going forward, European contagion alongside increased market penetration for digital media will destroy Sirius' profitability"

    Europe has what to do with Satellite radio which um... has nothing to do with Europe, exactly?

    "As a betting man, John Malone should take his chips off the table, cash out, and run.
    "
    Have you called John Malone to warn him? I'm sure he'd be ever so grateful....

    "Going forward, Sirius XM and Liberty Media shareholders are setting themselves up for severe losses, largely due in part to the clash of personalities between a few legendary figures, who now happen to be out of their league."

    Largely due in part again... how all these reasons be the large part? Which is it? And again, have you offered your advice to these "legendary figures" who apparently know nothing and are simply egomaniacs looking to battle it out a the expense of everyone else? You could save them from potential ruin, if they would just listen to you...


    Come on man... are you serious with this piece? It's really really really bad... worse the the one from that guy yesterday, and that one was horrible!
    Sep 26 10:58 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: The Big Money Keeps Pouring In [View article]
    http://bit.ly/XfQ8QI

    Oh come on "duke" ;) Why the sudden rush of postings? Remember back in June, your comment to me?

    "Well, Stevie, it was just a month ago when you and I debated whether you had a price target of 2.75 on the stock... ...it is hard to keep up with all the fabrications and denials. You might want to just admit that you got it wrong because you don't understand the dynamics of the market. WHEN I GET IT WRONG I FREELY ADMIT IT. Trust me it is good for your credibility.
    If you want to use point and figure to alert you readers that is fine. Spencer tried it with the 50 day EMA a couple of weeks ago. You are going to get the right result for the wrong reason. The impending death cross as the 50 day average falls below the 200 day average is what every one is focusing on...not to mention that JM's second forward contract will be complete tomorrow.
    Here is a hint for your next article since you want to play technical analyst. What does the slope of the fall of the 50 day average as it moves through the 200 day have to do with the fall rate of descent of the stock and its target price.
    If you really understood TA, you would have been able to predict SIRI's fall before $2.00.
    Looking forward to your next piece of fiction."


    Humorous, no?

    "WHEN I GET IT WRONG I FREELY ADMIT IT."

    No admission, though. Go figure. SIRI hit $2.75 months later, and $3.25 or "close enough" to my $3.30 target before the Q4 call. You were looking for under $1 in 2012, yes? What happened to that? Even the bearish retrace in April / May / June along with the overall market didn't pull it back that far.

    You use such an arrogant, know it all tone, yet a quick look through your history of postings here and on yahoo clearly shows you have been wrong far more often than you have been right.

    What about the comment cut and pasted to Spencer Osborne's site?

    http://bit.ly/VmX8Mb

    "If Spencer knew the first thing about securities law he wouldn’t have written an article that was blatantly stupid on it face and if one of you knew any thing about the basics of investing you would have called him on it long before I did. I warned you that I would be trying to get rid of those four likes.
    So how is JM going to do a legal buyback, remain in control of SIRI and have all you geniuses holding the bag. I will show you and I have been alluding to it for months. JM wants the FCC to give him de jure control before he converts the preferred. He will then convert just enough of the preferred to common so that he can replace the current board. The new board will lever up the company and do a buy back but it will only buy back JM’s unconverted preferred shares, not the common. All perfectly legal and you get a debt ridden company that JM still controls. Please tell me that there was at least one soul out there who actually had the brains to figure this out."

    Really? That's how it's gonna work, eh? Seems like your brain was the only one to figure this out. Tell me, how does this work now that LMCA has converted every last one of its preferred shares of stock? How stupid everyone else is, though...

    Your post from June 10th 2012 :

    "You think there is any possibility that Liberty is doing another forward contract with a target price of $1.90 and that when it needs to acquire shares under the target price, it merely drops the bid price and that is why the price declined to 1.86?
    While you are figuring that it go check the TU and THUR prints. You will see a number of block sales that didn't move the bid/ask. You think these could be negotiated sales to fill in the forward contract. If not how does an 8M share sale not move the bid/ask.
    Maybe you should consider an alternative theory or maybe you want to consider what happens WHEN THE FORWARD CONTRACT GETS FILLED."

    Second forward contract in June? No. Did you admit you were wrong? Nahhh ;)

    Or THIS brilliant gem :

    "I suggest you read my post yesterday and my response to the questions if you want to learn where the 302M shares came from. Ever hear of a pyramid of forward contracts...probably not. You might want to learn some of this stuff if you plan to keep writing these articles."

    Pyramid of forward contracts? It was done through UBS, one contract, and you even made claim that the reason you had been quiet as the stock rose from your short in the $1.80's up to $2.40 early in 2012 was because you HAD to be silent because YOU were part of the forward contract negotiations.

    Throw 100 darts and you are bound to hit the bullseye here and there. Remove the 98 that missed and it looks impressive... leave them there and the self proclaimed genius fades away, and arrogance looks like foolishness.
    Feb 16 12:07 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    "Although net new subscribers in each period has remained relatively stable"

    Your chart shows over two years it has remained on a relatively stable INCREASE from 370 or so to 720 + which is quite nearly a double. Yet you call this "stable" (because it fits with your opinion). There are few if any statisticians who will look at the graph you provided and say that that is steady.

    You then go on to mention the graph of deactivations as showing an increasing metric. The graph has a very similar slope to net additions. It is impossible for one graph overlayed on another, where each graph follows the same average trend and slope, to be completely different in analysis. You are skewing presentation of data to fit your assumptions. Bad idea.

    "Peaking New Car Sales"

    You mention 15.75 is near max. Yet 15.75 is 1.25 million off of the average 17 million. You also fail to account for the massive HOLE in the graph from the 2009 area. The problem here is that that hole needs to be filled over the next 7... 8 ? years. Don't give me a report saying Americans are driving less and a cut and paste from Rick Munarriz's daily Sirius XM update to meet his article quota over at The Motley Fool. The population is increasing, not decreasing. More cars will be needed and more will need replacing. The average (that "relatively stable" part.... ) thus will tend to trend a bit higher.


    There are multitudes of other errors here. A glaring omission of the fact that a new car buyer who was a previous sub might list as a deactivation but is really not as they roll into a gross conversion a quarter later (and the number of these will be increasing and they are certainly not a concern.) You ignore how this fits with decreasing "churn."

    Far too many assumptions are made and like you said you "just don't know" certain points of data. To make the worst assumptions in all cases, of course you will arrive at the conclusion that the world is ending tomorrow for Sirius XM. I mean, I can start writing a bunch of short, stay away from, or sell this stock, articles on here when I "just don't know" and decide to make up a bunch of negative assumptions but is that really good advice?

    "Take it from me, I don't have a clue!"

    Who would listen?

    Unfortunately it seems we'll be getting more of this, as you said "stay tuned" in your article here.

    "Friendly" suggestion?

    Know. Do more thorough research. Understand the multitude of issues going on with Sirius XM and the overall market and why they are all coming together to the point that the share price (all that matters to an investor... show me the money, right?) is behaving as it is. Look into the Latino programming. Understand how that plays into the used car channel. 40 million? Right? Give or take. Understand cash flow, share buybacks / return of capital to share holders, debt refinancing, etc. and how that plays into share price. Understand ARPU and how an increasing base subject to feathered price increases over time can have DRAMATIC effects in terms of revenue.

    I have heard this subscriber headwinds thing for years now. YEARS. Sure, eventually a guy will come around and fire this article out and be correct either in the short or long term, but I see no issue through 2014. Often we see argument that a stock is a sell because maybe possibly in 3 to 100 years something bad might / will happen, but is there value in that?

    You are making good attempts here, but it's not enough to even pull a golf clap. There are far too many errors in data and interpretation.
    Sep 29 11:10 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Web 2.0 Will Destroy Sirius XM Radio [View article]
    I read the headline. No more reading was necessary.

    To save others the trouble, please view this clip from "Billy Madison" and consider it my response.

    http://bit.ly/NVcQM5
    Sep 28 10:19 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media: Buy Before This Happens [View article]
    Horrible. You do realize that for every 2 shares Mel sells that Liberty must buy 1, thus effectively reducing the effect of the increased number of shares on the market as sales by half. What makes you think his sales will cause the stock to "plunge" when 20 million went out last week and the shares subsequently ROSE? Likewise he sold in August, and the shares rose. He sold in July and the shares rose. Only May and June sales, in the middle of a bearish market overall, saw declines in the share price.

    "What this statement means for Sirius shareholders is pretty obvious. The share value will plunge because Karmazin will probably sell off the Sirius stock options he owns before he leaves. Since his current employment contract will end on December 31, that will be soon.

    Karmazin has apparently started the selloff. SEC paperwork shows that he sold 20,362,700 shares on September 17th, 18th, and 19th. What this effectively does is put a lot more Sirius shares on the market.
    "

    It's not "obvious" because what you say is obvious is not going to happen as a result of the sales. Also, Karmazin has adopted a trading plan for the sale of these shares and he has been selling shares on a similar schedule since earlier in the year. It's fully expected he will sell the other portion once they vest and this has been covered repeatedly so this should come as no surprise to investors. It also doesn't really put a lot more shares on the market as these options already exist, and the shares are expected to print once they vest and are exercised.

    "It is in the interest of both Malone and Karmazin to knock this stock's value down. Malone wants to avoid a big tax bill, and Karmazin wants to rake in a big pile of cash by selling shares."

    This is crazy talk. Why would Karmazin want the share price DOWN if he wishes to receive capital from sale of shares? If you want to sell something don't you want the price UP? Why would Malone want to knock the share price DOWN to avoid taxes? Would you want your investments to decrease in value simply because you wished to make less profit and thus pay less tax? Claiming that either individual would like to see lower stock pricing at this point has absolutely no basis in reality.
    Sep 25 09:03 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Takes Huge Bite Out Of Sirius [View article]
    This article is so confusing, misinformed, and blatantly erroneous.... over and over and over again.
    Jun 8 07:02 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Customer Dis-Service [View article]
    I always find the comments claiming poor customer service and long wait times to be interesting. I have had several calls to SIRI over the years (the most recent subscribing my girlfriend's car after the free trial period) and never had a wait time longer than a few seconds, and arguably those few seconds were simply to ring me out to an operator.

    Now, I didn't want to go posting this so I just tried calling five different times from three different phones over the course of 30 minutes, two of these numbers are not tied to my own account (work phone, girlfriend's phone).

    ALL times I was connected to a human being in customer care IMMEDIATELY.

    I never understood the claims of 30 minute... 1 hour, 3 hour wait times, or whatever they are. I've never had a single issue.
    Dec 31 04:54 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Likely To Pay Dividend To Fuel Buyback [View article]
    Uhhh... you serious? 10 years at 650 mil shares a year ($2 bil around current pricing) = 6.5 bil shares, more than shares outstanding.

    That's a big dent, considering the dent would exceed the size of the target....
    May 2 07:00 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    Well good thing you don't have to think about it Pete cuz you sold out back in 2012 for $2 or so, right? Spamming articles with comments of "dump it" "dump it before it goes to $1.50" "dump it before Obama gets your money"...

    If you had the money you'd buy AAPL hand over fist back when it was $700 a share too, right? I mean you did say that.

    "Liberty will kill itself and Sirius XM in less than a year" You said in 2012.

    The funny thing is if you look at your post history you make these comments AT THE BOTTOMS. You are the poster child for fear. You really want that AAPL at $700 a share and you HATE that SIRI at $1.80. You're always "sick" over stuff.

    The market needs people like you, because the guy that buys your SIRI from you and then sells it back to you higher has to make his money, and the guy who shorts you AAPL and buys it back from you lower has to make his money too.

    Not everyone has gotten sick here, and those who don't look at the day to day and run around like a worried little puppy aren't foolish or stupid or anything... they're likely doing quite well (despite some purchases, for a time being, being under water a bit). I can say this because I'm one of those people.

    Stay sick. But don't try to infect everyone else by spewing nonsense. It's a free country and you can do what you want, I guess, but you're not doing yourself (or anyone else) any favors.
    Apr 18 05:41 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM [View article]
    "Now I will explore the company's valuation and give a detailed analysis on this subject. However, I will move forward with one assumption that the current buyout offer will not be successful."

    Don't need more articles about the offer and 100 guesses going every which way. I appreciate that he didn't get into it.
    Feb 27 10:30 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Sirius Offer From Liberty Media: Should Sirius Shareholders Buy, Sell Or Hold? [View article]
    It's impossible to have it both ways. Suggesting taking profits on some AND holding some is issuing a buy and sell suggestion in the same breath.

    If you are INVESTED in SIRI you will want to know if your investment should continue to perform in similar fashion after the swap and base your opinion on holding on whether or not the Liberty stake you will then own has future prospects to your liking.

    If you are TRADING SIRI then you will want to know if a higher effective swap price (better ratio) will be negotiated and how long this might take.

    There is no "take profits" and "hold some." That's wishy washy advice from the realm of "I don't know." Your bearish points really aren't long term fundamental concerns and are more suited to, as you said, the "smash and grab style" strategy that likely cares little to nothing about SIRI as a company and just wishes to play volatility.

    That's fine, the market takes all types, but what is your advice to the current SIRI investor? Not the smash and grab trader. Do you feel SIRI will offer similar prospects wholly owned by Liberty, and can current investors expect reasonable gains through LMCA-C shares they receive from the swap, which should be composed of roughly 80% SIRI and 20% "other."?

    I'm not so sure there is a valid bearish concern over LMCA controlling a media company of significant size like SIRI. They already do... and if that's not a concern now and one is invested in SIRI now, there is absolutely no reason it should suddenly be a concern after an equity swap which does not really change the control structure.
    Jan 4 12:55 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Buy, 1 To Avoid For Long-Term Media Investors [View article]
    Rocco, I think you need to understand that the quality of the comments are due in part to the tone the author sets. You write well, and trust me when I say I completely understand how to twist the screws and get people agitated with a simple shift of words, and you employ this in great fashion. But to then shrug and go "whaaatt???? It wasn't meeee it was them!" is akin to when I'd poke at my brother when we were younger until he decided to hit me, and then he'd get in trouble. I should have known better, I'm the older brother. Like the author of an article on Seeking Alpha, I set the tone.

    I hope you don't mind but this piece is as good an example as any.

    Since you opened with, as you state "a friendly challenge" to Sirius XM bulls, I am sure you understand that right off the bat, you are adversarial with part of your audience. Such a comment is accusatory to "all" Sirius XM bulls who comment, not merely the handful of commenters who dog many of your articles, and articles of others who have chosen the route of essentially homogenizing the 99% in with the vocal 1% and labeling them all as the 1% portray themselves.

    Part of my decision to become a writer here for Seeking Alpha was a back and forth with one of the authors whom I attempted to have an actual thoughful discussion with about Sirius XM within the comments section of one of their articles. In what I felt was polite disagreement with the author (the complete discussion is easily reasearched at the beginning of my comment history), I was met with repetitive brush offs which eventually turned into "typical siri long" and 'only an idiot would' type comments. Understand that as a SIRI bull who rarely ever commented but was a daily reader, it is frustrating enough to have to weed through the daily "unless you're stupid like a typical braindead emotionally deranged SIRI long living in a psychological vacuum" articles. Upon attempting to have some sort of intelligent discussion, to then receive it within the comments when it was certainly not deserved? I'm a big boy :) I can handle myself... and I have done quite well at that and will continue to do so. But I think to some others this may be offputting and the result being a detriment to Seeking Alpha.

    You go on shortly thereafter to state :

    "If you do not think we're headed in a direction that portends universal wireless access, I'm not sure you're paying attention."

    Again, I completely understand what you are saying, but it's a poke at anyone who disagrees with you. It paints them as idiots... daydreaming and gazing around chasing butterflies as the world passes them by. Immediately, if anyone dares to disagree they run the risk of falling into this group of children not paying attention. Again, trust me when I say I know how to work with words and bend people's emotions in subtle ways, and you do it well. Not many people can do it in a subtle fashion. That's a compliment in some ways but I don't think it works well here if you are trying to promote civil discussion within the comments. You incite those who do not have thick skins, and this can and will cause a backlash, especially in an online forum.

    Further you go on to paste a quote and then follow up with :

    "Of course, SIRI bulls will latch onto points A and B and argue that I make the case for SIRI. That misses the point."

    Instantly, if anyone decides to argue with you on this they are, "of course" a SIRI bull (already illustrated as the "bad" guys within the article), and they "miss the point." Possibly due to anyone who is bullish on Sirius XM not paying attention, as stated in the body and in the titles of some of your articles.

    If you go on the offense with a group of people you can expect some backlash. It's just how these things go. I'm not even going on the offense in my articles yet I had a SIRI bear the other day lighting them up with what amounted to "You're all dumb, go look at AAPL, AAPL rules!" etc etc. Ignore it, it goes away. If it doesn't... continue to ignore it. To make these few the focus of your articles and incite them is going to create more of them, and completely degrade the quality of your comments.

    Again, trust me, I know exactly how to press the right buttons on most people and send them this way or that. You're able to do this also. You write well. I can read your articles and be completely fine with them, but not everyone can. I think you do yourself a complete disservice by going the button pressing, screw twisting, or whatever you'd like to call it, route. Is it frustrating with a couple of people take shots, make fun of your picture or dance around as Pandora goes down in share price and poke and prod at you? Of course it is. Ignore it? You can ignore these things and let them tire of it and move on (and most of them will) or you can fight with them and have the overall message of some very good articles and potentially great discussion lost in the little battle with these few you've chosen to fight.

    In my short month of writing here I have received a large number of direct messages, the majority of them saying what amounts to "thank you for being polite." This is not me tooting my own horn here... but it is apparent that many individuals, at least when it comes to SIRI, had become frustrated with the nonsense.

    As authors we're in the position of control, and able to set the tone we wish for our articles. I hope everything I wrote above is taken as constructive criticism, as that is all it was meant to be. (Sorry to sidetrack from the article but having started the article with such comments, I felt this was the best place to respond).
    Mar 29 04:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
    Also, Regarded, I'm going to ask that you keep it civil in the comments section if you wish to partake in the discussions here. I'd like to have discussion with my readers, and that's going to be impossible if you come in here and start some kind of war.

    Please respect that, and try to keep your comments on point and on topic, free of personal insult. If you can't do that, then please refrain from posting within my article. You're an author here... you represent Seeking Alpha with each post you make.
    Jun 29 05:32 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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