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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • A Sirius Offer From Liberty Media: Should Sirius Shareholders Buy, Sell Or Hold? [View article]
    It's impossible to have it both ways. Suggesting taking profits on some AND holding some is issuing a buy and sell suggestion in the same breath.

    If you are INVESTED in SIRI you will want to know if your investment should continue to perform in similar fashion after the swap and base your opinion on holding on whether or not the Liberty stake you will then own has future prospects to your liking.

    If you are TRADING SIRI then you will want to know if a higher effective swap price (better ratio) will be negotiated and how long this might take.

    There is no "take profits" and "hold some." That's wishy washy advice from the realm of "I don't know." Your bearish points really aren't long term fundamental concerns and are more suited to, as you said, the "smash and grab style" strategy that likely cares little to nothing about SIRI as a company and just wishes to play volatility.

    That's fine, the market takes all types, but what is your advice to the current SIRI investor? Not the smash and grab trader. Do you feel SIRI will offer similar prospects wholly owned by Liberty, and can current investors expect reasonable gains through LMCA-C shares they receive from the swap, which should be composed of roughly 80% SIRI and 20% "other."?

    I'm not so sure there is a valid bearish concern over LMCA controlling a media company of significant size like SIRI. They already do... and if that's not a concern now and one is invested in SIRI now, there is absolutely no reason it should suddenly be a concern after an equity swap which does not really change the control structure.
    Jan 4, 2014. 12:55 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Buy, 1 To Avoid For Long-Term Media Investors [View article]
    Rocco, I think you need to understand that the quality of the comments are due in part to the tone the author sets. You write well, and trust me when I say I completely understand how to twist the screws and get people agitated with a simple shift of words, and you employ this in great fashion. But to then shrug and go "whaaatt???? It wasn't meeee it was them!" is akin to when I'd poke at my brother when we were younger until he decided to hit me, and then he'd get in trouble. I should have known better, I'm the older brother. Like the author of an article on Seeking Alpha, I set the tone.

    I hope you don't mind but this piece is as good an example as any.

    Since you opened with, as you state "a friendly challenge" to Sirius XM bulls, I am sure you understand that right off the bat, you are adversarial with part of your audience. Such a comment is accusatory to "all" Sirius XM bulls who comment, not merely the handful of commenters who dog many of your articles, and articles of others who have chosen the route of essentially homogenizing the 99% in with the vocal 1% and labeling them all as the 1% portray themselves.

    Part of my decision to become a writer here for Seeking Alpha was a back and forth with one of the authors whom I attempted to have an actual thoughful discussion with about Sirius XM within the comments section of one of their articles. In what I felt was polite disagreement with the author (the complete discussion is easily reasearched at the beginning of my comment history), I was met with repetitive brush offs which eventually turned into "typical siri long" and 'only an idiot would' type comments. Understand that as a SIRI bull who rarely ever commented but was a daily reader, it is frustrating enough to have to weed through the daily "unless you're stupid like a typical braindead emotionally deranged SIRI long living in a psychological vacuum" articles. Upon attempting to have some sort of intelligent discussion, to then receive it within the comments when it was certainly not deserved? I'm a big boy :) I can handle myself... and I have done quite well at that and will continue to do so. But I think to some others this may be offputting and the result being a detriment to Seeking Alpha.

    You go on shortly thereafter to state :

    "If you do not think we're headed in a direction that portends universal wireless access, I'm not sure you're paying attention."

    Again, I completely understand what you are saying, but it's a poke at anyone who disagrees with you. It paints them as idiots... daydreaming and gazing around chasing butterflies as the world passes them by. Immediately, if anyone dares to disagree they run the risk of falling into this group of children not paying attention. Again, trust me when I say I know how to work with words and bend people's emotions in subtle ways, and you do it well. Not many people can do it in a subtle fashion. That's a compliment in some ways but I don't think it works well here if you are trying to promote civil discussion within the comments. You incite those who do not have thick skins, and this can and will cause a backlash, especially in an online forum.

    Further you go on to paste a quote and then follow up with :

    "Of course, SIRI bulls will latch onto points A and B and argue that I make the case for SIRI. That misses the point."

    Instantly, if anyone decides to argue with you on this they are, "of course" a SIRI bull (already illustrated as the "bad" guys within the article), and they "miss the point." Possibly due to anyone who is bullish on Sirius XM not paying attention, as stated in the body and in the titles of some of your articles.

    If you go on the offense with a group of people you can expect some backlash. It's just how these things go. I'm not even going on the offense in my articles yet I had a SIRI bear the other day lighting them up with what amounted to "You're all dumb, go look at AAPL, AAPL rules!" etc etc. Ignore it, it goes away. If it doesn't... continue to ignore it. To make these few the focus of your articles and incite them is going to create more of them, and completely degrade the quality of your comments.

    Again, trust me, I know exactly how to press the right buttons on most people and send them this way or that. You're able to do this also. You write well. I can read your articles and be completely fine with them, but not everyone can. I think you do yourself a complete disservice by going the button pressing, screw twisting, or whatever you'd like to call it, route. Is it frustrating with a couple of people take shots, make fun of your picture or dance around as Pandora goes down in share price and poke and prod at you? Of course it is. Ignore it? You can ignore these things and let them tire of it and move on (and most of them will) or you can fight with them and have the overall message of some very good articles and potentially great discussion lost in the little battle with these few you've chosen to fight.

    In my short month of writing here I have received a large number of direct messages, the majority of them saying what amounts to "thank you for being polite." This is not me tooting my own horn here... but it is apparent that many individuals, at least when it comes to SIRI, had become frustrated with the nonsense.

    As authors we're in the position of control, and able to set the tone we wish for our articles. I hope everything I wrote above is taken as constructive criticism, as that is all it was meant to be. (Sorry to sidetrack from the article but having started the article with such comments, I felt this was the best place to respond).
    Mar 29, 2012. 04:56 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
    Also, Regarded, I'm going to ask that you keep it civil in the comments section if you wish to partake in the discussions here. I'd like to have discussion with my readers, and that's going to be impossible if you come in here and start some kind of war.

    Please respect that, and try to keep your comments on point and on topic, free of personal insult. If you can't do that, then please refrain from posting within my article. You're an author here... you represent Seeking Alpha with each post you make.
    Jun 29, 2012. 05:32 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: $4 Per Share Will Depend On Q2 Report [View article]
    "streaming can become a potential disruption to satellite delivery"

    And here I thought I was losing signal underground for other reasons!

    After reading this bad news I decided to make a phone call. It went something like this :

    "Hello, do I have The Buggles on the line?"

    "Yes yes... who is this?"

    "This is Steve Faulkner, prolific writer at Seeking Alpha"

    "Who?"

    "Steve Faulkner... you know, Sirius XM?"

    "...."

    "Anyways... I have a huge opportunity for you. Do you ever get tired of being referred to as one hit wonders?"

    "Umm... yeah... we've been sitting in this room here day after day for more than 30 years trying to break out of that mold we cast for ourselves in the early '80's"

    "Well listen... you know about Satellite Radio right? Sirius XM?"

    "Of course we do, they play Video Killed The Radio Star like once an hour on 80's on 8"

    "Well how would you like to get on Hits 1?"

    "Please oh great Faulkner! Tell us how!"

    "Have you heard the news? Streaming now interrupts Satellites. That, coupled with the high costs of maintenance on those satellites spells certain doom for Sirius XM. Do you see where I am going here....?"

    "Yes... I think.... OH MY GOD...."

    "That's right.... STREAMING KILLED THE SATELLITE STAR!"

    "Hold on...."

    "...."

    "...."

    "There's a problem...."

    "What's that?"

    "We just checked, we can't use that title"

    "Why not? Someone already wrote that song?"

    "Not exactly...."

    "What is it then?"

    "Apparently there is someone who has trademarked _______ killed Sirius / Satellite Radio"

    "You're kidding me... who?"

    "Someone named Richard Saintvilus.... we'll have to contact him for a royalty arrangement..."

    At that point I blew chocolate milk out my nose and hung up!
    Jun 27, 2014. 01:26 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    What in the WORLD is this ?

    Uhhh... yeah like, ummm... Sirius, like uhhhh, yeah, so like you can get Pandora, and uhhhh, yeah like Podcasts and stuff, and ummmm, when uhhhh, like I think yeah, so like Bearish on Sirius, uhhh, I don't know if the company will go bankrupt, but yeah, probably like niche radio, so bearish Sirius.

    "Nicholas Pardini, Managing Partner:

    Nicholas Pardini is renowned within the financial industry, for his investment expertise and top-down approach in fundamental analysis of global economies. Pardini’s unmatched ability to identify optimum investment opportunities has established him as a notable voice worth listening to, as well as a vital strategist in identifying specific macroeconomic trends."

    Renowned, unmatched, and vital? Come on Nick. What the heck is this?
    Jun 6, 2014. 04:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    Sorry from what I can tell by time and sales on those September options you paid 6 cents for them. Net outlay is closer to $200 and you will need prices below $1.93 in September or before to turn a profit.

    Dan... c'mon man it's one thing to be bearish but this is REALLY REALLY bearish....

    You mentioned to me in December that if SIRI kept going up you'd just short more and buy more puts. I really hope you are not doing that... Not for *my* sake. Heck, the more shorts the better as they'll buy later...
    Mar 4, 2013. 12:51 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Kool-Aid Is Evaporating For Sirius And Pandora [View article]
    Commented below. Call me crazy but I bought today against my rule of holding 50% cash this year. Shares though... couldn't stomach an options purchase :) Still human... though some might argue as to the contrary!
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:20 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: You Won't Believe What I Found In The Q2 Report [View article]
    Few hundred? Thousand? They still have "Opie" I believe.

    I wasn't a fan of the show and I don't know anyone who is / was so I'm rather detached from the matter. It's over and done with at this point.
    Jul 30, 2014. 11:10 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Comparing Apples To Oranges [View article]
    Bright young man, this Jack Banser :)
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:35 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Right On Track For A Break Towards $4 Per Share [View article]
    Do it Doug!!!
    Jul 16, 2014. 08:17 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    Ummm, uhhh... it might go up or down, but podcasts are like, gonna kill Sirius XM Holdings Inc. because like just plug in your ummmm, your iPhone and like, the podcast plays so like, bear Sirius.
    Jun 6, 2014. 09:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why Liberty Will Not Pursue A Deal [View article]
    It closed at $3.27 today on news that SA author Stephen Faulkner, lovingly known as "favorite" to the masses, had changed his picture back to his face the previous day after almost 8 months of various pictures and oddities...

    'Such a stunning profile deserves a boost in the share price of Sirius XM', one analyst was heard as saying. Greg Maffei could not be reached for comment, but street consensus is that he approves wholeheartedly.
    May 22, 2014. 06:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    P/E ratio? For SIRI? Really?

    Any time I hear someone argue P/E ratio I roll my eyes, and this isn't just some blanket dismissal. SIRI should be valued at the very least on FCF, not P/E. FCF is FAR more important.


    This was a nice, simple article by a new author to SIRI. Looks balanced to me. Not everyone needs to make up a bunch of negatives and try to twist up a bearish article to be balanced. Sometimes balanced includes no negatives or positives at all.
    May 12, 2014. 03:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    "The data is right there in the charts. I think subscriber additions have generally been stable, although I note that there was a breakout in the recent quarter. Too early to say if that's a new trend."

    Yes it is. Higher highs, higher lows. Average line could be roughly drawn from 375 to 625, an increase of 250. 67% increase on an averaged basis. Stable? Not really. In a 10 period sample stable would show short term fluctuations around a horizontal line. This line has a 6.7% grade on a quarterly basis which is anything BUT stable, unless you are saying it is increasing in a stable fashion... but you did not, because it does not fit with your hypothesis and assumptions.

    Do I think the net add number will increase? Short answer is yes, on an averaged basis I would not be surprised to see continuing increase along a similar slope.

    "On used car program data, it's not disclosed by the company. No way to do more research... unless you can point me to more data and if so please send it over. "

    Can't. Don't have it. Don't really need it at this point as it's in rough preliminary stages (they just rolled out Service Lane in the last quarter...).

    "Making assumptions and predictions and having a discussion is really the point of this site."

    Is it? Maybe I missed the memo? I'd like to think that there's a bit more accountability on the author's end, but yes I do realize that that is not the case. I mean, all the people that have written the article above in various forms (except one person) have essentially disappeared and moved on.

    "Obviously you would prefer that everything written about Sirius was cheerleading."

    Yeah yeah... and had I the time coupled with the inclination to do so I could run around gathering similar accusations from other commenters and writers (actually check Jack10000's comment history, as I am pretty sure he's said it before.) This is yet another assumption that you are wrong on. Who was it that said this last... Marc Gerstein? Kofi Bofah?

    Here's the deal. I don't need to pretend to accept a re-hashed article that has been written again, and again, and again, and has been proven wrong again, and again, and again, just to look smart because now I get to play the part of the concerned individual. Caution is warranted when caution is warranted, and as you CLEARLY state above :

    "By the way, I don't necessarily see any issue in 2014 either"

    Which means that you do not see an issue for the next FIFTEEN MONTHS at least...

    then why in the world would you now choose to suggest people sell or avoid Sirius XM stock on something which "may or may not...." affect the stock and something which you say you do not see affecting the stock with certainty in the next 15 months?

    Is the concern of subscriber equilibrium a valid concern? SURE! :) But like you are saying here, it is of no concern in the next 15 months through 2014. Tailwinds "may" start to max out but you "really don't know." Why stress about it right this second? Why sell or avoid Sirius XM for something that may happen someday down the road? Your arguments here provide for a bearish look at every single stock in existence because someday, maybe, something bad might happen that might be a bad thing for the stock ... I think...? Yes, all growth eventually slows (on a percentage basis). Yes, equilibrium is reached eventually in almost all areas. But you have failed to show why that means investors should sell or avoid Sirius XM as an investment TODAY.
    Sep 29, 2013. 06:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Subscriber Acquisition Costs Keep Rising [View article]
    Yes the total cost of acquiring subscribers will rise if SAC does not fall faster than gross additions rise.

    I mean... if I add 1 million subscribers at $10 per, my cost is $10,000,000 ... but if I add 2 million subscribers at $9 per, my cost is $18,000,000

    So long as I can cover the cost, and so long as I can monetize the new subscribers to similar extents, this really doesn't present any sort of a problem. It's a particularly good thing if SAC declines while total costs for acquiring subs goes up, because you acquired a greater number of subs for less cost.... like buying in bulk.
    Apr 10, 2013. 08:32 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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