The Outlook For Sirius XM's Average Subscription Fee [View article]
Are you guys kidding with this computer generated stuff? Your price target formula says if I DOUBLE current revenue per subscriber that the stock's price target is only $4.40, less than 2x what your price target is at $134 per sub.
So let me get this straight. If Sirius XM brings in DOUBLE the revenue (MRF will absorb the increased costs of royalties) and other costs stay the same, SIRI will not even be worth twice as much as it currently is.
Do you see why this is absurd?
You guys write some ok articles but man ya have to lose that silly interactive price target thing unless you're going to make it reasonable....
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
I'm am very confused at the idea of entering a short with a 5 year horizon... you even stated that tech is notoriously dangerous to be in long term. I agree and it goes both ways with the danger on that, short or long.
It's just very strange. Have continued calling here. Each time, straight through to a human being. Sometimes it's someone sounding Indian, sometimes it's someone sounding American.
1 866 528 7474
Say "customer service" and boom... done. No hold, and this is exactly what I have experienced every single time I have called over the years I have been a subscriber.
Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
"how do you know they are buying above the share price? Where is that information please?"
Forward contract, strike price $2.15, on top of which they pay fees. The fees are unknown, so it is only fair to say they are paying $2.15 per share for 302 million shares. They have also purchased shares on average price of around $2.13 immediately after they announced the first forward contract. This data is all readily available in their public announcements as well as the SEC form 4 data for their acquisitions.
You can dig for their announcemnts. At this point they have been discussed all over the place, so there are tons of sources. Unless the share price of SIRI is over $2.15 when they close on 7/6, the fact is quite simple... they will be paying "above share price."
"They DID say that they would not pay more than 2.15 ergo, a CAP."
No, they absolutely did not state this. There is 'speculation' about this, and some authors / writers use this as a "fact" in their articles, but neither the company nor a representative of the company has ever stated this. Other people's articles are not sources. You, Me... we're "guys down the street" and certainly can be quoted for opinion but these blogs and opinion pieces are NOT a credible source to quote from as "fact." I will happily place a gentleman's bet with you on this one. I'll dye my hair orange and change it to my profile picture (for three days) if I am wrong, as well as posting an article around the statement with an admission of "wrong" linking to you and your article. If you're wrong, you merely admit it and post a link to my article, no orange hair. Fair? To be clear, I am saying they did NOT state / say, etc., that they would not pay more than $2.15 a share for Sirius XM. I also maintain that since their forward contract has a strike of $2.15 per share, and closes on July 6th, and because that $2.15 strike has added fees, that they are actually set to pay MORE than $2.15 per share for Sirius XM in the coming weeks. You in on this? Keep in mind the burden of proof would be on you, and we can give it a week for you to come up with said proof.
It's unfortunate, Regarded Solutions, that you have taken so much offense to my questioning some of your reasoning in a recent article of yours, that you have decided to lower yourself to comments such as the one above, among others. There's absolutely no reason to be hostile on here. I'll gladly answer questions, comments, etc, and I'm happy to engage in discussion.
Also, I can't dump SIRI. I'm in cash, and I have never shorted a stock in my life (and likely never will)... I don't hold SIRI at the moment, though you can be sure I will be following them, and adding when and if I am comfortable.
"Liberty Media owns close to 50% of all shares and has "capped" the share price at $2.15 by stating they will not pay more for the shares"
Where did Liberty Media state this? If you can find it I will be very very very surprised. They are also paying $2.15 share price plus fees, which are estimated to be at $0.15 per share, making the total they are paying $2.30.
"Mel Karmazin has been exercising his options for cash, not for shares"
Incorrect. Mel has been exercising his options and converting them for shares at the strike price, paying for them, and then reselling those shares.
"Karmazin has sold roughly half of his position, and the "dumping" could continue for another 3-6 months"
Actually, his sales will continue as outlined in the plan disseminated in February of this year. You are also incorrect in stating he has sold half his position. He has sold a quarter of his position, has plans to convert and sell half total, and has no plans currently to sell the other 50%, or 60 million shares he has in options, or the roughly 10 million shares he holds personally. Mel is actually selling out less than half of his total shares, which begs the question, why would he keep over 50% of his stake, including his personally held shares which are not in options, if he lacks faith in the stock?
"Traders are staying away because the RSI (relative strength index) has been terrible to trade within as has the very narrow range "
Really? 5% swings aren't enough for traders? I think you're mistaken here. You're throwing out a term like "RSI" and saying that this is the reason traders have stayed away from the stock. What, then, has moved the price of SIRI up and down 5%, and what has caused the volume? How did this happen with no trades?
"I have read all sorts of articles recently that have suggested various ways to make money by owning SIRI shares. Mostly it has to do with buying shares and selling covered calls. That does make some sense if you were bullish about the stock, but actually if you were bullish about the stock you would just buy and hold."
You're completely wrong here. Selling covered calls is a strategy for those who are mildly bullish. What you are saying "the stock is stuck" is the PERFECT situation for one to buy a stock and sell covered calls! If I buy a stock today at $2 and have a bullish sentiment of 20% appreciation in a year, and sell a $2.50 covered call a year out for $0.15 per, and the stock appreciates to $2.40, I make MORE than if I had merely bought and held the stock. If you are interested in learning about options strategies there are many informative books out there, or even resources on the web. Covered calls are honestly the first option strategy one learns, and it's a bullish strategy. I do see you've said it makes sense if you are bullish on the stock, but then you contradict and conclude saying it doesn't make sense if you are bullish, as anyone bullish would buy and hold.
"It is my opinion that the share price will continue its death march (either down or sideways) until Liberty Media finally takes complete control, or when Mel Karmazin finally leaves"
But you suggest holding the stock if one owns it? Why would you suggest an individual hold a stock that will "continue its death march"?
While I agree this is not the time to buy back in to SIRI for myself, and that SIRI is currently in a downtrend, your reasoning has a lot of holes or is quite simply misinformed in some cases.
"That is the reason I have a lifetime subscription and always will, no matter who owns the company."
Well of course you "always will." It's a lifetime subscription... if Pee Wee Herman takes over the company you'll still have a subscription.... lol :)
Sirius XM: It Seems The Buyback Has Started [View article]
nino you have been saying malone has done back door deals on the siri buybacks but this has not happened. You said it the other day as well.... Unless you have some sort of proof that Malone has a deal in place on the buybacks, knock it off. And even if he does it's the same... shares removed. Doesn't matter where they are bought from and EVEN BETTER if they are bought in a deal at a fixed price than if they are bought back at higher pricing. I understand you're trying to scare the longs that have held... but man, give it a rest!
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
Daniel is filtering content!
These are not cheerleaders and ignorant fools, Daniel (I am sure there are some.. but few.) You came into this highly unprepared to deal with the very knowledgeable community of SIRI longs. You MUST be more educated than your intended audience if you wish to debate them. Having an opinion and a chip on your shoulder is not sufficient.
Sirius XM Shorts Exceed 400 Million Bad Ideas [View article]
Nino already is going nuts. He's part of that short position and was expecting Malone's actions to destroy Sirius XM.
You guys need to lay off the other writers, though. C'mon... as far as I know all are bullish here. Everyone just has different opinions as to their level of bullishness and their approach to analysis. All opinions presented here are valuable. I may disagree with some opinions, and readers may disagree with some opinions, but civil thought provoking discussion works best!
Some Sirius XM Investors Just Don't Get It [View article]
"I view this as a financial engineering transaction, rather than some long term strategic action by Liberty or Malone. Will this benefit Sirius XM shareholders? It is difficult to know, but I suspect that investors will find that Sirius XM will overpay for the shares purchased in the buyback. On the other hand, I expect that Liberty and Malone will do quite well."
I cannot fathom why, if this is your position, that you are long SIRI and not LMCA instead? You're basically saying that SIRI is going to get grabbed by the hair by LMCA, pulled through the mud, and left on the side of the road beaten and bruised having overpaid for shares and end up leveraged nearly 5.5X? Yet you hold SIRI and not LMCA?
I just don't see this happening. Makes no sense to me at all. So Liberty participates in a buyback, leverages up to what is bordering on a damaging level (to the point it knocks the credit rating down, possibly several notches as you state they will lever up "way above" what S&P would like), then executes an RMT and spins the company to share holders.
Who "wins" there? SIRI? No, SIRI gets essentially destroyed, or saddled with debt to the point it ends up beaten down to the brink of financial disaster on any single hiccup. LMCA shareholders? No... they get to participate in a buyback appreciation, sure (same as the straight SIRI holder), but they get spun out debt laden SIRI that's one bad quarter away from financial disaster. Malone? Not really... he gets similar to what the LMCA holders get.
The "win" play in your scenario is to stay long SIRI, ride the rapid run up on a buyback, and dump immediately before the RMT and buy LMCA for the quick "premium" then immediately dump the spun stock, I guess? LMCA being partial SIRI should receive less benefit percentage wise from a SIRI buyback than straight SIRI (the 100% play), the assumed "premium" goes to LMCA in the RMT so dumping SIRI then going LMCA makes sense, then you are spun a damaged / near death company so just be sure you're one of the first to sell.
It's just not reasonable to think that the intention here is for LMCA to chew up SIRI and spit it out.
I enjoy your articles and abilities to pull facts and crunch numbers with precision... but I *think* you're getting outta your zone here as this is a lot of speculation. (and you're still claiming Malone has indicated he wants a premium when he has not ! ;) While I don't doubt there will be a RMT *at some point*, I don't think before that that Liberty will over extend SIRI to dangerous levels on credit. Lever up? Sure. To the point the credit rating gets decimated and they're left choked out on debt? Absolutely not.
Sirius XM: Is Liberty Supporting The Share Price On Purpose? [View article]
"Why don't you tell us again about your theories on why all the convertibles would be converted at below 1.87, so they would get a premium, and that's what Liberty would pay."
Because I didn't say that the first time. How can I say something again than I never said in the first place?
"And tell us again why you sold everthing below $2 because it was going so much lower."
I did sell at $1.95 and I outlined why, and my plan to buy lower *if* it headed there, and why I thought it *might* head there, but in the same article I illustrated my intent to re-buy around the same price with a few undisclosed conditions if my lower price assumption was not met. Price never went lower, I re-bought for a few pennies higher, and easily made it up in a couple of trades after the fact.
" All that negative crap you were writing 2-3 months ago."
2-3 months ago I wrote one article, and then I followed much later with a few articles when I was considering getting back in but "not yet." I was fairly silent for about 6 weeks. It's all there in my history, Jack. Pretty clear to see. You commented on the article in question at the time, yet you are making it sound here like I beat some drum about my idea and led people to their doom. It was one article where I sold. Heck I even said in the article that it was a speculative play and for longer term investors ANY of the current prices at the time looked good for a buy. It's right there... not like I can edit that stuff in there now.
"You were scaring people out of Sirius when they could have been buying 70 cents lower. Now you are pumping because you missed that buying opportunity and paid much higher to get back in."
I commented when I bought back in and at what price. $2.02. Sale? $1.95. Difference? $0.07. Follow more closely, Jack. You're ignoring the other trades since then on the way up which have easily erased that 7 cent loss and increased my position as well. I'm pretty clear with those when I do them, or at least outline them a day ahead of time and the price points.
"Liberty is the only buyer now and is willing to pay up to $2.54. What happens when the only buyer is not buying anymore and only the sellers are left? Give us some theories on that scenario."
Lose the attitude, get the chip off your shoulder, and take a time out. Then *ask* if I will give you some theories and perhaps I might answer. I have no problem with debate or dissenting opinion, but your attitude is foul and your "facts" are misrepresentations. Check both before you come in the door again if you wish to have a back and forth discussion, or in the future you can talk to your own shadow.
Sirius XM Has Tested $1.83 - What's Next? [View article]
Spencer nice article. I sold out today at open, $1.95/4 And liquidated my June calls.
I have an article in queue explaining why and on my new entry points, one at $1.47 and another back at $1.95. Basically I'm long either way, back when it hits my sell point or if it dips enough to my low point.
For what it's worth, Jeff Pierce has been very sharp with SIRI technical analysis, and technical analysis in general. I listened to him on Demian's show Tuesday and what he said along with the information I wrote about Monday, as well as UBS' position at 233 million shares I found yesterday (which is STILL not out in the public domain on any of the institutional holdings lists except Fidelity...??? it's not on Nasdaq, for instance, but the filing is right here at the SEC : http://1.usa.gov/JMUMie) Anyways, there's specific reasons I think it'll hit $1.50 or less in short order and it has to do with what I see as a potential $220 million payday for the bond holders, or 40% (maybe more?). It's terribly for the short term, great for the long term. Watch for the change of control which will lock in the bonus afforded to them, and make shorting the stock almost pointless ....
In my opinion we are in for a VERY fast drop and subsequently a very fast return to the $2.15 range. Keep an eye on it...
This whole thing stinks, but as I always say, what're ya gonna do about it? Can't beat 'em. Follow the money, look a few steps ahead, make some cash. This is showing a tremendous opportunity as the puzzle pieces come together.
The Outlook For Sirius XM's Average Subscription Fee [View article]
So let me get this straight. If Sirius XM brings in DOUBLE the revenue (MRF will absorb the increased costs of royalties) and other costs stay the same, SIRI will not even be worth twice as much as it currently is.
Do you see why this is absurd?
You guys write some ok articles but man ya have to lose that silly interactive price target thing unless you're going to make it reasonable....
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
Just be careful...
Sirius XM Customer Dis-Service [View article]
1 866 528 7474
Say "customer service" and boom... done. No hold, and this is exactly what I have experienced every single time I have called over the years I have been a subscriber.
Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
Forward contract, strike price $2.15, on top of which they pay fees. The fees are unknown, so it is only fair to say they are paying $2.15 per share for 302 million shares. They have also purchased shares on average price of around $2.13 immediately after they announced the first forward contract. This data is all readily available in their public announcements as well as the SEC form 4 data for their acquisitions.
http://bit.ly/J1Ynq2
You can dig for their announcemnts. At this point they have been discussed all over the place, so there are tons of sources. Unless the share price of SIRI is over $2.15 when they close on 7/6, the fact is quite simple... they will be paying "above share price."
"They DID say that they would not pay more than 2.15 ergo, a CAP."
No, they absolutely did not state this. There is 'speculation' about this, and some authors / writers use this as a "fact" in their articles, but neither the company nor a representative of the company has ever stated this. Other people's articles are not sources. You, Me... we're "guys down the street" and certainly can be quoted for opinion but these blogs and opinion pieces are NOT a credible source to quote from as "fact." I will happily place a gentleman's bet with you on this one. I'll dye my hair orange and change it to my profile picture (for three days) if I am wrong, as well as posting an article around the statement with an admission of "wrong" linking to you and your article. If you're wrong, you merely admit it and post a link to my article, no orange hair. Fair? To be clear, I am saying they did NOT state / say, etc., that they would not pay more than $2.15 a share for Sirius XM. I also maintain that since their forward contract has a strike of $2.15 per share, and closes on July 6th, and because that $2.15 strike has added fees, that they are actually set to pay MORE than $2.15 per share for Sirius XM in the coming weeks. You in on this? Keep in mind the burden of proof would be on you, and we can give it a week for you to come up with said proof.
It's unfortunate, Regarded Solutions, that you have taken so much offense to my questioning some of your reasoning in a recent article of yours, that you have decided to lower yourself to comments such as the one above, among others. There's absolutely no reason to be hostile on here. I'll gladly answer questions, comments, etc, and I'm happy to engage in discussion.
Also, I can't dump SIRI. I'm in cash, and I have never shorted a stock in my life (and likely never will)... I don't hold SIRI at the moment, though you can be sure I will be following them, and adding when and if I am comfortable.
I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
Getting Serious About Sirius XM [View article]
Where did Liberty Media state this? If you can find it I will be very very very surprised. They are also paying $2.15 share price plus fees, which are estimated to be at $0.15 per share, making the total they are paying $2.30.
"Mel Karmazin has been exercising his options for cash, not for shares"
Incorrect. Mel has been exercising his options and converting them for shares at the strike price, paying for them, and then reselling those shares.
"Karmazin has sold roughly half of his position, and the "dumping" could continue for another 3-6 months"
Actually, his sales will continue as outlined in the plan disseminated in February of this year. You are also incorrect in stating he has sold half his position. He has sold a quarter of his position, has plans to convert and sell half total, and has no plans currently to sell the other 50%, or 60 million shares he has in options, or the roughly 10 million shares he holds personally. Mel is actually selling out less than half of his total shares, which begs the question, why would he keep over 50% of his stake, including his personally held shares which are not in options, if he lacks faith in the stock?
"Traders are staying away because the RSI (relative strength index) has been terrible to trade within as has the very narrow range "
Really? 5% swings aren't enough for traders? I think you're mistaken here. You're throwing out a term like "RSI" and saying that this is the reason traders have stayed away from the stock. What, then, has moved the price of SIRI up and down 5%, and what has caused the volume? How did this happen with no trades?
"I have read all sorts of articles recently that have suggested various ways to make money by owning SIRI shares. Mostly it has to do with buying shares and selling covered calls. That does make some sense if you were bullish about the stock, but actually if you were bullish about the stock you would just buy and hold."
You're completely wrong here. Selling covered calls is a strategy for those who are mildly bullish. What you are saying "the stock is stuck" is the PERFECT situation for one to buy a stock and sell covered calls! If I buy a stock today at $2 and have a bullish sentiment of 20% appreciation in a year, and sell a $2.50 covered call a year out for $0.15 per, and the stock appreciates to $2.40, I make MORE than if I had merely bought and held the stock. If you are interested in learning about options strategies there are many informative books out there, or even resources on the web. Covered calls are honestly the first option strategy one learns, and it's a bullish strategy. I do see you've said it makes sense if you are bullish on the stock, but then you contradict and conclude saying it doesn't make sense if you are bullish, as anyone bullish would buy and hold.
"It is my opinion that the share price will continue its death march (either down or sideways) until Liberty Media finally takes complete control, or when Mel Karmazin finally leaves"
But you suggest holding the stock if one owns it? Why would you suggest an individual hold a stock that will "continue its death march"?
While I agree this is not the time to buy back in to SIRI for myself, and that SIRI is currently in a downtrend, your reasoning has a lot of holes or is quite simply misinformed in some cases.
"That is the reason I have a lifetime subscription and always will, no matter who owns the company."
Well of course you "always will." It's a lifetime subscription... if Pee Wee Herman takes over the company you'll still have a subscription.... lol :)
Sirius XM: It Seems The Buyback Has Started [View article]
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
These are not cheerleaders and ignorant fools, Daniel (I am sure there are some.. but few.) You came into this highly unprepared to deal with the very knowledgeable community of SIRI longs. You MUST be more educated than your intended audience if you wish to debate them. Having an opinion and a chip on your shoulder is not sufficient.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
Sirius XM Shorts Exceed 400 Million Bad Ideas [View article]
You guys need to lay off the other writers, though. C'mon... as far as I know all are bullish here. Everyone just has different opinions as to their level of bullishness and their approach to analysis. All opinions presented here are valuable. I may disagree with some opinions, and readers may disagree with some opinions, but civil thought provoking discussion works best!
Sirius XM's Stock Looks Rich Heading Into Earnings [View article]
Not to be taken seriously.
Sirius XM Shorts Squeezed Badly [View article]
Some Sirius XM Investors Just Don't Get It [View article]
I cannot fathom why, if this is your position, that you are long SIRI and not LMCA instead? You're basically saying that SIRI is going to get grabbed by the hair by LMCA, pulled through the mud, and left on the side of the road beaten and bruised having overpaid for shares and end up leveraged nearly 5.5X? Yet you hold SIRI and not LMCA?
I just don't see this happening. Makes no sense to me at all. So Liberty participates in a buyback, leverages up to what is bordering on a damaging level (to the point it knocks the credit rating down, possibly several notches as you state they will lever up "way above" what S&P would like), then executes an RMT and spins the company to share holders.
Who "wins" there? SIRI? No, SIRI gets essentially destroyed, or saddled with debt to the point it ends up beaten down to the brink of financial disaster on any single hiccup. LMCA shareholders? No... they get to participate in a buyback appreciation, sure (same as the straight SIRI holder), but they get spun out debt laden SIRI that's one bad quarter away from financial disaster. Malone? Not really... he gets similar to what the LMCA holders get.
The "win" play in your scenario is to stay long SIRI, ride the rapid run up on a buyback, and dump immediately before the RMT and buy LMCA for the quick "premium" then immediately dump the spun stock, I guess? LMCA being partial SIRI should receive less benefit percentage wise from a SIRI buyback than straight SIRI (the 100% play), the assumed "premium" goes to LMCA in the RMT so dumping SIRI then going LMCA makes sense, then you are spun a damaged / near death company so just be sure you're one of the first to sell.
It's just not reasonable to think that the intention here is for LMCA to chew up SIRI and spit it out.
I enjoy your articles and abilities to pull facts and crunch numbers with precision... but I *think* you're getting outta your zone here as this is a lot of speculation. (and you're still claiming Malone has indicated he wants a premium when he has not ! ;) While I don't doubt there will be a RMT *at some point*, I don't think before that that Liberty will over extend SIRI to dangerous levels on credit. Lever up? Sure. To the point the credit rating gets decimated and they're left choked out on debt? Absolutely not.
Sirius XM: Is Liberty Supporting The Share Price On Purpose? [View article]
Because I didn't say that the first time. How can I say something again than I never said in the first place?
"And tell us again why you sold everthing below $2 because it was going so much lower."
I did sell at $1.95 and I outlined why, and my plan to buy lower *if* it headed there, and why I thought it *might* head there, but in the same article I illustrated my intent to re-buy around the same price with a few undisclosed conditions if my lower price assumption was not met. Price never went lower, I re-bought for a few pennies higher, and easily made it up in a couple of trades after the fact.
" All that negative crap you were writing 2-3 months ago."
2-3 months ago I wrote one article, and then I followed much later with a few articles when I was considering getting back in but "not yet." I was fairly silent for about 6 weeks. It's all there in my history, Jack. Pretty clear to see. You commented on the article in question at the time, yet you are making it sound here like I beat some drum about my idea and led people to their doom. It was one article where I sold. Heck I even said in the article that it was a speculative play and for longer term investors ANY of the current prices at the time looked good for a buy. It's right there... not like I can edit that stuff in there now.
"You were scaring people out of Sirius when they could have been buying 70 cents lower. Now you are pumping because you missed that buying opportunity and paid much higher to get back in."
I commented when I bought back in and at what price. $2.02. Sale? $1.95. Difference? $0.07. Follow more closely, Jack. You're ignoring the other trades since then on the way up which have easily erased that 7 cent loss and increased my position as well. I'm pretty clear with those when I do them, or at least outline them a day ahead of time and the price points.
"Liberty is the only buyer now and is willing to pay up to $2.54. What happens when the only buyer is not buying anymore and only the sellers are left? Give us some theories on that scenario."
Lose the attitude, get the chip off your shoulder, and take a time out. Then *ask* if I will give you some theories and perhaps I might answer. I have no problem with debate or dissenting opinion, but your attitude is foul and your "facts" are misrepresentations. Check both before you come in the door again if you wish to have a back and forth discussion, or in the future you can talk to your own shadow.
Enjoy your weekend.
Sirius XM Has Tested $1.83 - What's Next? [View article]
I have an article in queue explaining why and on my new entry points, one at $1.47 and another back at $1.95. Basically I'm long either way, back when it hits my sell point or if it dips enough to my low point.
For what it's worth, Jeff Pierce has been very sharp with SIRI technical analysis, and technical analysis in general. I listened to him on Demian's show Tuesday and what he said along with the information I wrote about Monday, as well as UBS' position at 233 million shares I found yesterday (which is STILL not out in the public domain on any of the institutional holdings lists except Fidelity...??? it's not on Nasdaq, for instance, but the filing is right here at the SEC : http://1.usa.gov/JMUMie) Anyways, there's specific reasons I think it'll hit $1.50 or less in short order and it has to do with what I see as a potential $220 million payday for the bond holders, or 40% (maybe more?). It's terribly for the short term, great for the long term. Watch for the change of control which will lock in the bonus afforded to them, and make shorting the stock almost pointless ....
In my opinion we are in for a VERY fast drop and subsequently a very fast return to the $2.15 range. Keep an eye on it...
This whole thing stinks, but as I always say, what're ya gonna do about it? Can't beat 'em. Follow the money, look a few steps ahead, make some cash. This is showing a tremendous opportunity as the puzzle pieces come together.