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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
    Also, Regarded, I'm going to ask that you keep it civil in the comments section if you wish to partake in the discussions here. I'd like to have discussion with my readers, and that's going to be impossible if you come in here and start some kind of war.

    Please respect that, and try to keep your comments on point and on topic, free of personal insult. If you can't do that, then please refrain from posting within my article. You're an author here... you represent Seeking Alpha with each post you make.
    Jun 29, 2012. 05:32 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: $4 Per Share Will Depend On Q2 Report [View article]
    "streaming can become a potential disruption to satellite delivery"

    And here I thought I was losing signal underground for other reasons!

    After reading this bad news I decided to make a phone call. It went something like this :

    "Hello, do I have The Buggles on the line?"

    "Yes yes... who is this?"

    "This is Steve Faulkner, prolific writer at Seeking Alpha"

    "Who?"

    "Steve Faulkner... you know, Sirius XM?"

    "...."

    "Anyways... I have a huge opportunity for you. Do you ever get tired of being referred to as one hit wonders?"

    "Umm... yeah... we've been sitting in this room here day after day for more than 30 years trying to break out of that mold we cast for ourselves in the early '80's"

    "Well listen... you know about Satellite Radio right? Sirius XM?"

    "Of course we do, they play Video Killed The Radio Star like once an hour on 80's on 8"

    "Well how would you like to get on Hits 1?"

    "Please oh great Faulkner! Tell us how!"

    "Have you heard the news? Streaming now interrupts Satellites. That, coupled with the high costs of maintenance on those satellites spells certain doom for Sirius XM. Do you see where I am going here....?"

    "Yes... I think.... OH MY GOD...."

    "That's right.... STREAMING KILLED THE SATELLITE STAR!"

    "Hold on...."

    "...."

    "...."

    "There's a problem...."

    "What's that?"

    "We just checked, we can't use that title"

    "Why not? Someone already wrote that song?"

    "Not exactly...."

    "What is it then?"

    "Apparently there is someone who has trademarked _______ killed Sirius / Satellite Radio"

    "You're kidding me... who?"

    "Someone named Richard Saintvilus.... we'll have to contact him for a royalty arrangement..."

    At that point I blew chocolate milk out my nose and hung up!
    Jun 27, 2014. 01:26 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    What in the WORLD is this ?

    Uhhh... yeah like, ummm... Sirius, like uhhhh, yeah, so like you can get Pandora, and uhhhh, yeah like Podcasts and stuff, and ummmm, when uhhhh, like I think yeah, so like Bearish on Sirius, uhhh, I don't know if the company will go bankrupt, but yeah, probably like niche radio, so bearish Sirius.

    "Nicholas Pardini, Managing Partner:

    Nicholas Pardini is renowned within the financial industry, for his investment expertise and top-down approach in fundamental analysis of global economies. Pardini’s unmatched ability to identify optimum investment opportunities has established him as a notable voice worth listening to, as well as a vital strategist in identifying specific macroeconomic trends."

    Renowned, unmatched, and vital? Come on Nick. What the heck is this?
    Jun 6, 2014. 04:27 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    Sorry from what I can tell by time and sales on those September options you paid 6 cents for them. Net outlay is closer to $200 and you will need prices below $1.93 in September or before to turn a profit.

    Dan... c'mon man it's one thing to be bearish but this is REALLY REALLY bearish....

    You mentioned to me in December that if SIRI kept going up you'd just short more and buy more puts. I really hope you are not doing that... Not for *my* sake. Heck, the more shorts the better as they'll buy later...
    Mar 4, 2013. 12:51 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Kool-Aid Is Evaporating For Sirius And Pandora [View article]
    Commented below. Call me crazy but I bought today against my rule of holding 50% cash this year. Shares though... couldn't stomach an options purchase :) Still human... though some might argue as to the contrary!
    Oct 10, 2014. 08:20 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: You Won't Believe What I Found In The Q2 Report [View article]
    Few hundred? Thousand? They still have "Opie" I believe.

    I wasn't a fan of the show and I don't know anyone who is / was so I'm rather detached from the matter. It's over and done with at this point.
    Jul 30, 2014. 11:10 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Comparing Apples To Oranges [View article]
    Bright young man, this Jack Banser :)
    Jul 29, 2014. 02:35 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Right On Track For A Break Towards $4 Per Share [View article]
    Do it Doug!!!
    Jul 16, 2014. 08:17 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    Ummm, uhhh... it might go up or down, but podcasts are like, gonna kill Sirius XM Holdings Inc. because like just plug in your ummmm, your iPhone and like, the podcast plays so like, bear Sirius.
    Jun 6, 2014. 09:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why Liberty Will Not Pursue A Deal [View article]
    It closed at $3.27 today on news that SA author Stephen Faulkner, lovingly known as "favorite" to the masses, had changed his picture back to his face the previous day after almost 8 months of various pictures and oddities...

    'Such a stunning profile deserves a boost in the share price of Sirius XM', one analyst was heard as saying. Greg Maffei could not be reached for comment, but street consensus is that he approves wholeheartedly.
    May 22, 2014. 06:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    P/E ratio? For SIRI? Really?

    Any time I hear someone argue P/E ratio I roll my eyes, and this isn't just some blanket dismissal. SIRI should be valued at the very least on FCF, not P/E. FCF is FAR more important.


    This was a nice, simple article by a new author to SIRI. Looks balanced to me. Not everyone needs to make up a bunch of negatives and try to twist up a bearish article to be balanced. Sometimes balanced includes no negatives or positives at all.
    May 12, 2014. 03:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    "The data is right there in the charts. I think subscriber additions have generally been stable, although I note that there was a breakout in the recent quarter. Too early to say if that's a new trend."

    Yes it is. Higher highs, higher lows. Average line could be roughly drawn from 375 to 625, an increase of 250. 67% increase on an averaged basis. Stable? Not really. In a 10 period sample stable would show short term fluctuations around a horizontal line. This line has a 6.7% grade on a quarterly basis which is anything BUT stable, unless you are saying it is increasing in a stable fashion... but you did not, because it does not fit with your hypothesis and assumptions.

    Do I think the net add number will increase? Short answer is yes, on an averaged basis I would not be surprised to see continuing increase along a similar slope.

    "On used car program data, it's not disclosed by the company. No way to do more research... unless you can point me to more data and if so please send it over. "

    Can't. Don't have it. Don't really need it at this point as it's in rough preliminary stages (they just rolled out Service Lane in the last quarter...).

    "Making assumptions and predictions and having a discussion is really the point of this site."

    Is it? Maybe I missed the memo? I'd like to think that there's a bit more accountability on the author's end, but yes I do realize that that is not the case. I mean, all the people that have written the article above in various forms (except one person) have essentially disappeared and moved on.

    "Obviously you would prefer that everything written about Sirius was cheerleading."

    Yeah yeah... and had I the time coupled with the inclination to do so I could run around gathering similar accusations from other commenters and writers (actually check Jack10000's comment history, as I am pretty sure he's said it before.) This is yet another assumption that you are wrong on. Who was it that said this last... Marc Gerstein? Kofi Bofah?

    Here's the deal. I don't need to pretend to accept a re-hashed article that has been written again, and again, and again, and has been proven wrong again, and again, and again, just to look smart because now I get to play the part of the concerned individual. Caution is warranted when caution is warranted, and as you CLEARLY state above :

    "By the way, I don't necessarily see any issue in 2014 either"

    Which means that you do not see an issue for the next FIFTEEN MONTHS at least...

    then why in the world would you now choose to suggest people sell or avoid Sirius XM stock on something which "may or may not...." affect the stock and something which you say you do not see affecting the stock with certainty in the next 15 months?

    Is the concern of subscriber equilibrium a valid concern? SURE! :) But like you are saying here, it is of no concern in the next 15 months through 2014. Tailwinds "may" start to max out but you "really don't know." Why stress about it right this second? Why sell or avoid Sirius XM for something that may happen someday down the road? Your arguments here provide for a bearish look at every single stock in existence because someday, maybe, something bad might happen that might be a bad thing for the stock ... I think...? Yes, all growth eventually slows (on a percentage basis). Yes, equilibrium is reached eventually in almost all areas. But you have failed to show why that means investors should sell or avoid Sirius XM as an investment TODAY.
    Sep 29, 2013. 06:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Subscriber Acquisition Costs Keep Rising [View article]
    Yes the total cost of acquiring subscribers will rise if SAC does not fall faster than gross additions rise.

    I mean... if I add 1 million subscribers at $10 per, my cost is $10,000,000 ... but if I add 2 million subscribers at $9 per, my cost is $18,000,000

    So long as I can cover the cost, and so long as I can monetize the new subscribers to similar extents, this really doesn't present any sort of a problem. It's a particularly good thing if SAC declines while total costs for acquiring subs goes up, because you acquired a greater number of subs for less cost.... like buying in bulk.
    Apr 10, 2013. 08:32 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 390 Million Shorts Should Join The Long Side [View article]
    See you in two weeks! ;)
    Apr 9, 2013. 07:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Buy, 1 To Avoid For Long-Term Media Investors [View article]
    You linked the instablog directly from this article, and tell every "SIRI bull" to go there and read it, as a "challenge." You then state (in this article here), upon the reader's return :

    "Together, we've set a bar. We've set expectations as a community. Let's realize and meet that standard on every article. No exceptions."

    My comment directly addressed the tone of this article which you posted after posting your instablog. Directly after you post an instablog stating that authors and commenters alike must share responsibility, you pen and post an article poking and prodding at the same people you invite over there to read your instablog.

    This was the correct place to address the tone of this article, yet I apologized for sidetracking from the content of the article for the readers who do not wish to get into this specific part of it.

    "I am not sure how long you've been at this sort of thing, but it's impressive how you seem to have figured it out -- and understand me better than I understand myself -- in such a short time."

    What sort of thing? Writing? I've written for 14 years now, in many different spaces and from many different positions. I've had to manage communities of hundreds of people within a highly competitive anonymous environment and have been at the center of plenty of controversy over the years. Tens of thousands of pieces of writing, and much of it back and forth. While I do not have a degree or schooling to better help me understand the anonymous faces behind the computer screen, I do have 14 years of firsthand experience in doing so.

    A skilled author will completely control the audience and the flow of disucssion. If I move this discussion to your instablog thread and cite specific examples from your articles over the past several months and present an argument, this would be preferable? But see, the tone within that instablog is pleasant, congratulatory, because it is interlaced with good tidings and the 1,000,000 subscriber number. If I come in with a negative, I change the tone. I'm the bad guy. I know how it works. Like I said, 14 years have taught me well.

    Instead I chose to attempt to explain here, and in what I feel is a constructive fashion, and relevant to the tone set within the article, and the "challenge" at the top. I am attempting to "help" in my post, although I completely understand if you do not take it that way.
    Mar 29, 2012. 06:04 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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