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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    But Malone didn't do anything unless you believe he changed the tax laws, so I am confused as to why you are just saying this again?
    May 14, 2015. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why Now Is The Time To Buy [View article]
    Sorry my 2 year chart goes a little beyond 2 years to 4/19/13 for some reason where it was $2.97 before zipping up over the next month to what is $3.43 on 2 years ago 5/13/15

    Then again on 6/24/13 it was $3.04 intra day so all a matter of perspective.

    I did write again and again and again that my target (which I have repeated as a "sell" target) was $4.25 for 2013 and it did come to $4.18. I still think people who did not wish to ride out the period for it to grow into that valuation should have exited that area especially since my target was for 3 months later and it hit close enough early. Suggested "leave a few pennies for the other guy" and that $4.25 was an "area" with a "2-3% range"

    Investors who have added at or below the 50 day moving average over the last 2 years should be up significantly and really shouldn't be upset about anything unless they had unreasonable expectations. SIRI is within a fair range of valuation here (which everyone should calculate BEFORE investing and understand that the share price might go up and down within that range without any significant changes within the company to cause the price to deviate from the range).

    Buy back impact takes time. I did write several articles illustrating this with multi year timeframes. There's very little impact short term. Takes billions and years to pull shares out, but as time wears on and so long as price stays LOWER in the EARLY years then impact later is much greater to the upside based on the average price paid vs. the average price of the stock later on. So long as the appreciation in the stock in that time frame exceeds cost of interest (in very simplistic terms) the buyback is / was successful.

    As it stands the buyback has a lower average price than the current share price and is very slightly successful. But it hasn't been long enough... and besides ... any "investor" does not want the buyback to be successful YET... but I can see how someone who did not wish to hold SIRI anymore would have preferred the buyback quickly ramp the price so they could sell and leave someone else holding the bag of an unsuccessful buyback program.

    There is extensive reading material out there on buybacks. Stay clear of "opinion pieces" and those ones that talk about how most buybacks are NOT successful (which is true but is not applicable here so far.)

    This is stuff I have talked about again and again though. I think if people do not have a multi year horizon they are going to get bored / tired and sell. This is exactly what is needed to get everyone away from the stock.
    May 13, 2015. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    I just don't like anyone attempting to tell me what to do :) Roxie has read my articles and commented for a long time so there really is no excuse that they are not equipped with information from previous ones. They are welcome to go back and link if they wish... rather than tell me to do it.

    If anyone asks politely I'd probably be happy to go back and dig up a little old info when I have time. Generally such questions come through direct message and I'm usually happy to help :)
    May 13, 2015. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Probably should sell then. If you're asking the question of whether or not the company will do anything "amazing" I think you'll find the answer to be "no."

    Best to sell before the stock starts to "look like dead money" at determined areas of resistance vs. holding it through areas of resistance for several months. This is not so much a criticism as it is an observation. If you've held the stock since it hit $4.04 there really has been no compelling reason for it to pass that point (yet) and that really was a prime area to sell that has been visited time and again over the past several months. It does not make sense to hold through there and then consider selling it at $3.80 months later.
    May 12, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why Now Is The Time To Buy [View article]
    "With all of the buybacks there has been no appreciation with the stock price in two years. So how has the buybacks increased shareholder value?"

    2 years ago the share price was under $3. It is currently $3.83. That's respectable appreciation over a 2 year period.

    "Well, 2015 is almost half over and Siri is still stuck in a narrow trading range"

    I did write a very clear and to the point article detailing this back in February. You'll get another chance to sell at $4 if you wish to exit.
    May 12, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    It has hit $4 several times and you've had several times to sell at or above $4 per share since you wrote your comment on my previous article in February saying that $4 "works for me!". I wrote an article previously explaining that I expected that price to present resistance and haven't changed from that stance. You should have sold there as was suggested if you're looking for an exit point.

    You can follow my trades at the other site mentioned and you can thumb through the archives to see that I expected a $4.04 top (and mentioned it 3 days prior to it being hit). They're always announced at least a day in advance as to what price for the buy and sell.

    You're misreading the $5 as a prediction. I just don't believe $4.50 will present significant resistance and when / if current resistance is broken I'd expect hesitation closer to $5 than $4.50.

    I've stopped trading as of the last earnings report and simply choose to add to my position and hold from here as the headlines differ from the results.

    Good luck. You'll get another chance to sell at $4.
    May 12, 2015. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Inanimate things can have beauty, sure. Not stocks. I don't personify them. They don't have necks and stuff... I don't pretend they are beautiful things with necks =/
    May 6, 2015. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Negative.
    May 6, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Competent CEO's do as they are told by the majority owner.

    I don't consider my investments "beautiful" by any stretch of the imagination.

    And no it is unlikely that it would go much higher. Might get to the top end of valuation more frequently but it already did that during the buyback and under Malone so your argument is flawed.

    Unless, of course, you're "one of those" who thinks SIRI is some $6, $8, $10+ stock right now...
    May 6, 2015. 02:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    You're welcome.
    May 5, 2015. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Yet you bought and hold the stock. You must love that boot on your neck.
    May 5, 2015. 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    No, I won't point it out in my writing. I already have. New comers can research by reading older articles or teaching themselves.

    It takes my time to write this stuff. It takes more time to link back for the lazy.

    The street appreciates this just fine. This is why SIRI has a paper P/E that appears high yet it actually trades at one which is reasonable based on the NOLs. Around $4 per share IS WITHIN REASONABLE VALUATION.
    May 5, 2015. 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Appropriate or not it was just a big old story.

    Clean up the tax mess then, if it's time.
    May 5, 2015. 03:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    I don't assume that the share price will shoot up at cessation of the buyback (if cessation comes). I expect that over time the buyback will reduce shares and increase my stake at an interest cost which is lower than the appreciation of the underlying shares repurchased with the debt.

    That's my expectation. No magic.

    I wrote about this years ago... and I wrote years ago the high end of valuation / target was 4.25.

    The market absolutely respects siri. It's trading within its historical range of valuation gong all the way back to 2009.
    May 5, 2015. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Well that was a rant for nothing.

    You're misunderstanding. Their *effective* tax rate was as such due to the fact that future tax BENEFIT will be realized (meaning they will pay fewer taxes) and since they already booked future expected taxes under NOL carryforwards in umm.. q2 or q3 2013 I think it was... whenever they booked 52 cents EPS, they need to account for this TODAY and thus they need to remove the NOL benefit decrease.

    They didn't pay that percentage. They actually paid NO taxes last quarter at all. None. Had they not booked the NOLS all at once a couple years back they would have posted EPS of 5 cents for the quarter.
    May 5, 2015. 11:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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