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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish? [View article]
    Ummm, uhhh... it might go up or down, but podcasts are like, gonna kill Sirius XM Holdings Inc. because like just plug in your ummmm, your iPhone and like, the podcast plays so like, bear Sirius.
    Jun 6, 2014. 09:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Why Liberty Will Not Pursue A Deal [View article]
    It closed at $3.27 today on news that SA author Stephen Faulkner, lovingly known as "favorite" to the masses, had changed his picture back to his face the previous day after almost 8 months of various pictures and oddities...

    'Such a stunning profile deserves a boost in the share price of Sirius XM', one analyst was heard as saying. Greg Maffei could not be reached for comment, but street consensus is that he approves wholeheartedly.
    May 22, 2014. 06:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    P/E ratio? For SIRI? Really?

    Any time I hear someone argue P/E ratio I roll my eyes, and this isn't just some blanket dismissal. SIRI should be valued at the very least on FCF, not P/E. FCF is FAR more important.


    This was a nice, simple article by a new author to SIRI. Looks balanced to me. Not everyone needs to make up a bunch of negatives and try to twist up a bearish article to be balanced. Sometimes balanced includes no negatives or positives at all.
    May 12, 2014. 03:45 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    "The data is right there in the charts. I think subscriber additions have generally been stable, although I note that there was a breakout in the recent quarter. Too early to say if that's a new trend."

    Yes it is. Higher highs, higher lows. Average line could be roughly drawn from 375 to 625, an increase of 250. 67% increase on an averaged basis. Stable? Not really. In a 10 period sample stable would show short term fluctuations around a horizontal line. This line has a 6.7% grade on a quarterly basis which is anything BUT stable, unless you are saying it is increasing in a stable fashion... but you did not, because it does not fit with your hypothesis and assumptions.

    Do I think the net add number will increase? Short answer is yes, on an averaged basis I would not be surprised to see continuing increase along a similar slope.

    "On used car program data, it's not disclosed by the company. No way to do more research... unless you can point me to more data and if so please send it over. "

    Can't. Don't have it. Don't really need it at this point as it's in rough preliminary stages (they just rolled out Service Lane in the last quarter...).

    "Making assumptions and predictions and having a discussion is really the point of this site."

    Is it? Maybe I missed the memo? I'd like to think that there's a bit more accountability on the author's end, but yes I do realize that that is not the case. I mean, all the people that have written the article above in various forms (except one person) have essentially disappeared and moved on.

    "Obviously you would prefer that everything written about Sirius was cheerleading."

    Yeah yeah... and had I the time coupled with the inclination to do so I could run around gathering similar accusations from other commenters and writers (actually check Jack10000's comment history, as I am pretty sure he's said it before.) This is yet another assumption that you are wrong on. Who was it that said this last... Marc Gerstein? Kofi Bofah?

    Here's the deal. I don't need to pretend to accept a re-hashed article that has been written again, and again, and again, and has been proven wrong again, and again, and again, just to look smart because now I get to play the part of the concerned individual. Caution is warranted when caution is warranted, and as you CLEARLY state above :

    "By the way, I don't necessarily see any issue in 2014 either"

    Which means that you do not see an issue for the next FIFTEEN MONTHS at least...

    then why in the world would you now choose to suggest people sell or avoid Sirius XM stock on something which "may or may not...." affect the stock and something which you say you do not see affecting the stock with certainty in the next 15 months?

    Is the concern of subscriber equilibrium a valid concern? SURE! :) But like you are saying here, it is of no concern in the next 15 months through 2014. Tailwinds "may" start to max out but you "really don't know." Why stress about it right this second? Why sell or avoid Sirius XM for something that may happen someday down the road? Your arguments here provide for a bearish look at every single stock in existence because someday, maybe, something bad might happen that might be a bad thing for the stock ... I think...? Yes, all growth eventually slows (on a percentage basis). Yes, equilibrium is reached eventually in almost all areas. But you have failed to show why that means investors should sell or avoid Sirius XM as an investment TODAY.
    Sep 29, 2013. 06:37 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius Subscriber Acquisition Costs Keep Rising [View article]
    Yes the total cost of acquiring subscribers will rise if SAC does not fall faster than gross additions rise.

    I mean... if I add 1 million subscribers at $10 per, my cost is $10,000,000 ... but if I add 2 million subscribers at $9 per, my cost is $18,000,000

    So long as I can cover the cost, and so long as I can monetize the new subscribers to similar extents, this really doesn't present any sort of a problem. It's a particularly good thing if SAC declines while total costs for acquiring subs goes up, because you acquired a greater number of subs for less cost.... like buying in bulk.
    Apr 10, 2013. 08:32 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 390 Million Shorts Should Join The Long Side [View article]
    See you in two weeks! ;)
    Apr 9, 2013. 07:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Buy, 1 To Avoid For Long-Term Media Investors [View article]
    You linked the instablog directly from this article, and tell every "SIRI bull" to go there and read it, as a "challenge." You then state (in this article here), upon the reader's return :

    "Together, we've set a bar. We've set expectations as a community. Let's realize and meet that standard on every article. No exceptions."

    My comment directly addressed the tone of this article which you posted after posting your instablog. Directly after you post an instablog stating that authors and commenters alike must share responsibility, you pen and post an article poking and prodding at the same people you invite over there to read your instablog.

    This was the correct place to address the tone of this article, yet I apologized for sidetracking from the content of the article for the readers who do not wish to get into this specific part of it.

    "I am not sure how long you've been at this sort of thing, but it's impressive how you seem to have figured it out -- and understand me better than I understand myself -- in such a short time."

    What sort of thing? Writing? I've written for 14 years now, in many different spaces and from many different positions. I've had to manage communities of hundreds of people within a highly competitive anonymous environment and have been at the center of plenty of controversy over the years. Tens of thousands of pieces of writing, and much of it back and forth. While I do not have a degree or schooling to better help me understand the anonymous faces behind the computer screen, I do have 14 years of firsthand experience in doing so.

    A skilled author will completely control the audience and the flow of disucssion. If I move this discussion to your instablog thread and cite specific examples from your articles over the past several months and present an argument, this would be preferable? But see, the tone within that instablog is pleasant, congratulatory, because it is interlaced with good tidings and the 1,000,000 subscriber number. If I come in with a negative, I change the tone. I'm the bad guy. I know how it works. Like I said, 14 years have taught me well.

    Instead I chose to attempt to explain here, and in what I feel is a constructive fashion, and relevant to the tone set within the article, and the "challenge" at the top. I am attempting to "help" in my post, although I completely understand if you do not take it that way.
    Mar 29, 2012. 06:04 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Might Be Due For A Breakout [View article]
    You problem begins when using P/E for valuation. I am not trying to be mean here (people often accuse me of that... I am being direct!) but you need to NOT use P/E in analysis. It's a nice little rookie first glance screening type of thing to use... but there are so many other things which go into a share price, go on behind the scenes, etc, that cause one company with X P/E to be valued fairly, another company with the same P/E to be undervalued, and another with the same P/E to be extremely overvalued.

    "With the advent of streaming, Satellite Radio is obsolete technology."

    It's hard to have an intelligent conversation when this is thrown into the mix. Opinions will not be changed on the matter. If this is your opinion I will suggest what I have suggested people do who say this since 2011 at $1.80 a share. Short. Short as much as you can, or buy $0.50 puts for a penny and load up on them. If you are approved, short those $2.50 calls vs. other's long positions. If it is such a sure thing that Satellite radio is a dying industry and that it is obsolete technology then why would one not aim to capitalize on the demise and inevitable tanking of the share price of SIRI towards bankruptcy?

    Every single commenter or writer who has made the claim that SIRI is dead soon and streaming will take over has VANISHED. They are not even around to ask their ongoing opinion... and have up and left like a fart in the wind.

    Perhaps this time one will get it right? Perhaps?
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:24 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts On Manipulation [View article]
    You need to re-read. All stocks are manipulated. Your basis for your short was that SIRI was overvalued and had run up because Pandora had run up.

    That was absolutely foolish and reckless. Don't try to make it look like I am saying it was manipulated UP... that's just as absurd as those suggesting SIRI is being manipulated down and that is why it isn't at $10 a share.
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts On Manipulation [View article]
    Eh I think you took away the wrong idea Shock... fundamental analysis is the most important thing here. Do your due diligence first and understand what the stock is worth and reasonable extensions above and below and then let whatever happens in the middle, happen.
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:20 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    P/E ratio is used to assess the valuation of every other company? Really? I wasn't aware of that. Perhaps you left something out?

    I'll take a gander...

    P/E ratio is used to assess the valuation of every other company by individuals who know nothing about how to assess the valuation of every other company.

    There we go. Companies operate in different spaces, have different margins, derive income differently, etc.

    I hope your basis for valuation on the 100's of companies you analyze hasn't been centered around P/E... Yikes...
    May 12, 2014. 06:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM : Liberty Media's Offer Is Attractive Despite $3.68 Offered [View article]
    Richard, there is no $3.68 ceiling just like LMCA did not set a $2.15 ceiling as you stated back in 2012 with their first forward contract. You repeatedly trumpeted at the time that LMCA's initial purchase price was a ceiling and that LMCA would not pay more than this and that was all SIRI holders would get.

    You were wrong because you had absolutely no understanding of the issue.

    I am not saying there will be a bloodbath here (I agree there will not be) but please do not start rumors here again like you did in 2012. Anyone who sold into what you said thinking LMCA would refuse to pay more than $2.15 for any more SIRI shares at the time missed one of the longest and most exceptional runs SIRI has ever had.

    Certainly this is unlikely to send SIRI on any sort of a run, but there is, without a doubt, absolutely no CEILING at $3.68.

    It's likely SIRI will see respectable volatility as it seems there is an extensive amount of confusion about this. I don't think starting rumors of some short squeeze bloodbath is going to help things either so for those saying there will be one, I'd suggest not getting hopes too high. There will be enough volume and enough people selling due to confusion, fits of rage, or simply deciding they do not wish to partake in the deal that any and all shorts will have plenty of room to cover any unhedged positions without skyrocketing the price over recent highs.
    Jan 4, 2014. 10:02 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Showing You Why I See $4.50 [View article]
    Will get to the rest later but while I have a minute...

    Don't feed trolls unless you want all your bridge crossings to be a nuisance :P
    Nov 18, 2013. 09:45 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Serious About Sirius? [View article]
    You guys crack me up :P I may write something soon... dunno if it will be before or after the call, though, as I leave for a short vacation on Wed and won't be back for a few days.

    Still think $4.50 brush by jan op ex. or around there, $4.25 mid / fair value at that point. Gimme a half a cent a day and I am happy. Buy the 50 day MA.
    Oct 20, 2013. 04:05 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Buying At These Prices Is Playing With Fire [View article]
    "FY 2013 Estimates
    Closing Price 3.97
    Share Count (billions) 6.45"

    Yeah well since the share count is 6.2 billion and not 6.45, your entire set of calculations is off for EOY 2013 unless SIRI decides to issue another 250 million shares and has not bought back any more shares to date.

    This article should be deleted as it is based around erroneous BASIC information...
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:00 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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