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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    LGF is one of the few stocks I have written about other than SIRI.

    Suggested by around $14. Figure it's at least a hold until they near exhaustion on the hunger games series. They do well with teenager type movies... which is the group that spends the most (typically) on movies when they're not sneaking in. :P
    Jul 24, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Nothing to make of it. It's doing what it should from a technical standpoint. Just gonna need to follow through.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    And we're a month away from them trimming their PT again!
    Jul 20, 2015. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    I'd assume their own. Institutional holdings reported per quarter.
    Jul 20, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Another thing that doesn't make sense is when they have price targets and recommendations that do not match up with their positioning.

    How many times have I seen a hold or avoid rating or a downgrade only to see a quarter later that they increased position.

    Likewise how many times have I seen a buy or overweight or upgrade to a rating only to see a quarter later they unloaded.
    Jul 20, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    They'll lower it again and follow the share price.

    It's what these 'analysts' do.

    Very few of them stick to a target. Even some of the ones I respect 'more' than others seem to follow the price around. It's like the madness of CNBC just throwing numbers out there from their uh... 'professionals'... with 'research' behind it...

    What was their target when P was at $40? What about when it was at $7?

    Checking history on some of these analysts and reports is cringeworthy...
    Jul 20, 2015. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    They also have a $28 price target on Pandora as far as I am aware. BRUTAL for any of their clients who are following their recommendations there.

    Brutal.
    Jul 20, 2015. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Hmm... question wasn't directed at you?

    Anyways I am almost 100% sure that your position is not so large that you can't simply liquidate it immediately at the bid price without moving the share price by a penny. Why do you need to reduce positions slowly?

    You say you are holding because of me... I am not sure that makes any sense. I mentioned $4 was a good exit area earlier in the year unless one wished to hold long term. You can't be thinking long term with comments like you said above about Malone milking SIrius of every penny and casting off a dry indebted husk (not how Malone does things anyways, but you should understand this...)

    Your entire comment history on SIRI is extremely negative, complaining, talking about manipulation, making insinuations or statements which are not true (under the guise of "I believe...)...

    Do yourself and everyone else a favor and sell, END THE TORTURE you are putting yourself through on a daily basis. Put everything into Netflix! Everyone I know says they bought a bunch of that recently (and GOOGL, everyone bought a bunch of that too... ).

    You sound envious of Malone. Extremely so. It's one of the seven. Best to lose that emotion.
    Jul 20, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    You get them down the line, long term, when the return exceeds the cost.

    Not before.

    Share buybacks are a long term issue. I have said this over and over and over and over and over again.

    If I buy something today for $1 I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1.

    If I bear interest cost on that $1 I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1 + compounded interest +inflation.

    If I buy with cash I don't realize gain until that thing is worth more than $1 + inflation.

    There are other issues that go into this such as tax benefit on interest cost vs. cash cost.

    Once this is all calculated and borne out over YEARS then you will have your answer.

    Any and all investors in Sirius XM should run the numbers on this, weigh vs. expectations of company performance, number of shares repurchased, cost in cash and debt, and expected number of years to target and figure whether or not they wish to hold through the period or sell and repurchase (or not) later on.

    Or instead of doing that they can simply post on message boards asking if anyone else has done this work, despite the fact that at least one individual has communicated the answer in multiple comments and articles.
    Jul 19, 2015. 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    No. Why in the world would Sirius XM or the car companies pay to install Sirius XM equipment in vehicles intended for sale outside of North America?

    That wouldn't make one shred of sense. None.

    Used vehicles that are exported post North America sale may have satellite radio but it would be absolutely, completely and utterly useless outside of Sirius XM's coverage area.
    Jul 19, 2015. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Also considering your comments above, WHY do you continue to hold SIRI?

    Your expectations are for the stock to be 3.65- below $4 by year's end, another offer from Malone so he can ... leverage to pursue his "cable dreams."

    Yet you own the stock.

    Why? What benefit do you see by holding, considering that you see absolutely no share price appreciation for the next 6 months (and a higher probability that the share price will be LOWER) followed by another LMCA offer followed by the company being essentially robbed of its cash / borrowing capacity?

    Yet you hold the stock.

    Why? Something doesn't compute.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    It has not missed more metrics than it has hit.

    Headlines are not indicative of what the expectations were by "analysts" and which of their expectations were met and which ones were missed. Generally headlines will focus on EPS or revenue only (keep it dumb for the audience).

    Total up the analyst estimates for those who follow the company, match them up to what the company reports.

    Sirius XM does not "miss" more than they hit or beat. This is certainly the case with the more important numbers... what the company guides vs. what they hit.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    "Sirius has a history of missing more key metrics then meeting them, and that is also a problem."

    Don't make things up.
    Jul 18, 2015. 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    It's not.

    Trust me, funds are not sitting there salivating at the thought of buying a whole bunch of SIRI the moment it hits $5 per share.

    They're not.
    Jul 17, 2015. 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM Setting Up For A Significant Move? [View article]
    Where what you say DOES make sense is when you are dealing with leverage through options. For instance for the past 5 days I have been trading AAPL options here :

    http://bit.ly/1Sq8skq

    Lot of stuff to weed through and don't mind the Midas guy on there... he's a local troublemaker, but anyways...

    If I can buy an AAPL $127 option for 80 cents, I only have to spend $80 for a contract that underlies 100 shares. Those 100 shares would cost me $12,750 (roughly at the time of the trade). This is a way for someone who doesn't want to front a large amount of money a way to use the leverage afforded by the option to gain large amounts on small movements in the share price. Thus the option moves quickly while the share price of the stock (more expensive) moves slowly.

    Buying 300 contracts at $0.80 cost me $24,000. To buy the same amount of shares underlying the contracts (30,000) would have cost me $3,825,000 (Eh, a bit much for me... hell a bit much for every single trader I know... ). $24,000 would have bought 188 shares of AAPL.

    The stock only moved about a dollar today, so that $24,000 put into SHARES would have yielded profit of $188... negligible, not particularly worth it right?

    But the option in question held until close was worth $1.58 (unfortunately I sold at $1.45), for a profit if held until close of $23,400.

    This is not to suggest that someone with just a little bit of money to invest and especially someone "new" to the market should even get into options, but what you are describing with low priced stocks vs. high priced stocks is actually what happens when using options for leverage.

    That said it is EXTREMELY HIGH RISK and one little blip on the day, one piece of bad news, one trend reversal or fail on support and someone in options could lose EVERYTHING without a properly set stop loss. AAPL falling a dollar today would have almost completely wiped out the holder of those same options.
    Jul 16, 2015. 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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