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Stephen Faulkner

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  • Sirius XM: 390 Million Shorts Should Join The Long Side [View article]
    See you in two weeks! ;)
    Apr 9, 2013. 07:15 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks To Buy, 1 To Avoid For Long-Term Media Investors [View article]
    You linked the instablog directly from this article, and tell every "SIRI bull" to go there and read it, as a "challenge." You then state (in this article here), upon the reader's return :

    "Together, we've set a bar. We've set expectations as a community. Let's realize and meet that standard on every article. No exceptions."

    My comment directly addressed the tone of this article which you posted after posting your instablog. Directly after you post an instablog stating that authors and commenters alike must share responsibility, you pen and post an article poking and prodding at the same people you invite over there to read your instablog.

    This was the correct place to address the tone of this article, yet I apologized for sidetracking from the content of the article for the readers who do not wish to get into this specific part of it.

    "I am not sure how long you've been at this sort of thing, but it's impressive how you seem to have figured it out -- and understand me better than I understand myself -- in such a short time."

    What sort of thing? Writing? I've written for 14 years now, in many different spaces and from many different positions. I've had to manage communities of hundreds of people within a highly competitive anonymous environment and have been at the center of plenty of controversy over the years. Tens of thousands of pieces of writing, and much of it back and forth. While I do not have a degree or schooling to better help me understand the anonymous faces behind the computer screen, I do have 14 years of firsthand experience in doing so.

    A skilled author will completely control the audience and the flow of disucssion. If I move this discussion to your instablog thread and cite specific examples from your articles over the past several months and present an argument, this would be preferable? But see, the tone within that instablog is pleasant, congratulatory, because it is interlaced with good tidings and the 1,000,000 subscriber number. If I come in with a negative, I change the tone. I'm the bad guy. I know how it works. Like I said, 14 years have taught me well.

    Instead I chose to attempt to explain here, and in what I feel is a constructive fashion, and relevant to the tone set within the article, and the "challenge" at the top. I am attempting to "help" in my post, although I completely understand if you do not take it that way.
    Mar 29, 2012. 06:04 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts On Manipulation [View article]
    You need to re-read. All stocks are manipulated. Your basis for your short was that SIRI was overvalued and had run up because Pandora had run up.

    That was absolutely foolish and reckless. Don't try to make it look like I am saying it was manipulated UP... that's just as absurd as those suggesting SIRI is being manipulated down and that is why it isn't at $10 a share.
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts On Manipulation [View article]
    Eh I think you took away the wrong idea Shock... fundamental analysis is the most important thing here. Do your due diligence first and understand what the stock is worth and reasonable extensions above and below and then let whatever happens in the middle, happen.
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:20 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    P/E ratio is used to assess the valuation of every other company? Really? I wasn't aware of that. Perhaps you left something out?

    I'll take a gander...

    P/E ratio is used to assess the valuation of every other company by individuals who know nothing about how to assess the valuation of every other company.

    There we go. Companies operate in different spaces, have different margins, derive income differently, etc.

    I hope your basis for valuation on the 100's of companies you analyze hasn't been centered around P/E... Yikes...
    May 12, 2014. 06:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM : Liberty Media's Offer Is Attractive Despite $3.68 Offered [View article]
    Richard, there is no $3.68 ceiling just like LMCA did not set a $2.15 ceiling as you stated back in 2012 with their first forward contract. You repeatedly trumpeted at the time that LMCA's initial purchase price was a ceiling and that LMCA would not pay more than this and that was all SIRI holders would get.

    You were wrong because you had absolutely no understanding of the issue.

    I am not saying there will be a bloodbath here (I agree there will not be) but please do not start rumors here again like you did in 2012. Anyone who sold into what you said thinking LMCA would refuse to pay more than $2.15 for any more SIRI shares at the time missed one of the longest and most exceptional runs SIRI has ever had.

    Certainly this is unlikely to send SIRI on any sort of a run, but there is, without a doubt, absolutely no CEILING at $3.68.

    It's likely SIRI will see respectable volatility as it seems there is an extensive amount of confusion about this. I don't think starting rumors of some short squeeze bloodbath is going to help things either so for those saying there will be one, I'd suggest not getting hopes too high. There will be enough volume and enough people selling due to confusion, fits of rage, or simply deciding they do not wish to partake in the deal that any and all shorts will have plenty of room to cover any unhedged positions without skyrocketing the price over recent highs.
    Jan 4, 2014. 10:02 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Showing You Why I See $4.50 [View article]
    Will get to the rest later but while I have a minute...

    Don't feed trolls unless you want all your bridge crossings to be a nuisance :P
    Nov 18, 2013. 09:45 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Be Serious About Sirius? [View article]
    You guys crack me up :P I may write something soon... dunno if it will be before or after the call, though, as I leave for a short vacation on Wed and won't be back for a few days.

    Still think $4.50 brush by jan op ex. or around there, $4.25 mid / fair value at that point. Gimme a half a cent a day and I am happy. Buy the 50 day MA.
    Oct 20, 2013. 04:05 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Buying At These Prices Is Playing With Fire [View article]
    "FY 2013 Estimates
    Closing Price 3.97
    Share Count (billions) 6.45"

    Yeah well since the share count is 6.2 billion and not 6.45, your entire set of calculations is off for EOY 2013 unless SIRI decides to issue another 250 million shares and has not bought back any more shares to date.

    This article should be deleted as it is based around erroneous BASIC information...
    Sep 20, 2013. 05:00 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Is Nobody Else Excited About Agero? [View article]
    "Interesting that you chose Honda. I understand that Pandora will come standard in every Civic and Honda. Sirius satellite radio won't. "

    My choice of Honda's dashboard isn't particularly interesting. I chose an inexpensive popular car, and it's done in general to show tech progression, not to dig into exactly what cars offer what. Pandora is a software application which requires a data connection, and thus anyone with a smart phone can use Pandora with any car through an aux input or FM transmitter without the car manufacturer adding a sat rad antenna to the vehicle and a small amount of hardware. Pandora comes in EVERY vehicle in this case. Arguably, Sirius XM does as well because everyone who is Pandora capable is Sirius XM capable through Sirius XM's smartphone application.

    SIRI *hardware* comes in the EX model Civic with satellite linked Navigation and above. It does not come in the the least expensive "LX" bare bones model.

    Agero's connected vehicle unit is working with Honda, at least in some capacity :

    "The lack of excitement is likely because there is absolutely no financial information, little understanding about the size of the business and possibly because it's cellular based technology. There is an incredible amount of competition in this space and it comes from a variety of companies."

    Sure, and there will be financial information. Maybe SIRI / LMCA just went and did something on a whim here... Perhaps they made a really dumb move? We're left to guess. I'd like to think those in charge know what they are doing, and I would much rather look at the larger picture on this than just write it off or worse yet, pull a bunch of potential negatives out of it. The market does hate uncertainty, that is for sure, and those who are able to look two or three steps ahead or figure things out before they are all spelled out in front of them are the ones who *should* see the most benefit.

    And yes it's cellular based tech... which makes sense, because Sirius XM is not in need of a bunch more one-way satellites....

    "It could be the strategically correct move, but I wonder why Agero sold this piece of the business, yet kept the rest. Too much competition? Profitability? Did Sirius make them an offer they couldn't refuse? Did Sirius overpay?"

    It might go a little like this.... with too much competition Agero decided it was time to exit, quickly, as the writing was on the wall and profitablility was going down the toilet. In a brilliant move by Agero, they quickly formed a plan to pull the wool over Sirius XM's eyes and through deception and deceit, the fools at Sirius XM made the brilliant individuals at Agero an offer they couldn't refuse. Consequently, Sirius XM grossly overpaid for the Agero acquisition, and the street just might soon find out causing a sharp decline in share price....

    Perhaps there are even worse things to come?

    "It seems Ford, GM and others are going in their own directions, maybe because they want to maintain the customer contact and own the revenue stream. Or, maybe because they thought they could differentiate their offerings for a competitive advantage."


    "Wall Street hates uncertainty, and this transaction is loaded with uncertainty. That's reason enough for a ho-hum reaction."

    And that's fine. We can get 100 reprints of the news, and I'll throw in my two cents on the speculative side. Generally I really dislike speculation, but with this one I am comfortable in looking years down the road.
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:51 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Sirius Fight Off Apple, Google And Pandora? [View article]

    Howard's contract is not up in 18 months. It is up in 31 as dmdpsu corrected.

    On top of this you show a very serious lack of understanding of Howard and the sector in general to think that:

    TuneIn.... will just throw a few hundred million at Howard and get him back on an internet version of FM.

    Again, dmdpsu has the right viewpoint here.

    You will absolutely have to do better than this stuff or the readers are just going to chew you up and spit you out. The Sirius XM vs. Pandora vs. Google vs. Apple issue has been beaten to death, dug up, beaten again, buried, rotten, the worms have taken the flesh from the bones and what was left was ground up into dust for some witch's potions. End of 2011, early 2012 "article a day" about the topic pretty much killed the discussion on it. Nothing has changed since.
    Jun 3, 2013. 10:09 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Trial Offers Cannot Overcome Demographics [View article]
    To be fair, Rocco, that "vision" has not worked out so well for these "visionaries" in terms of investing.

    From the "visionary" trying to play the proposed run up before September earnings last year, to the "visionary" stating that Sirius XM would not hit $2 again any time soon, to the "visionary" stating that people should get ready to "short Sirius XM below a buck" to the "visionary" repeatedly calling for Sirius XM's failure, to the "visionary" selling at $2.15 saying Sirius XM is fairly valued, to the "visionary" saying Sirius XM is a great short under $2.10, to the "visionary" who repeatedly cried that the stock's performance last year just "didn't make sense," to the "visionary" who shorted out the stock on the huge run up last May, to the "visionary" who covered the short and bought back in near the high, to the "visionary" that was calling for $2.75 and even $3 in the middle of last year... and on and on and on....

    "There is clearly a distinction between those with vision and those without it. That's really what it comes down to in this whole SIRI "debate.""

    Well my goodness! I'd say there is! And these self proclaimed visionaries are looking more and more like the crazy drunk screaming doomsday predictions on the street corner. It's a sunny day, not a cloud in the sky, yet "the prophet" calls for a tornado to wipe us all off the face of the earth at any moment...

    I'd say to be careful of visionaries. Some can't see beyond the tips of their own ego :) and they will always tell you to let go of the past, because the past speaks volumes about how wrong their own "visions" were. Check your sources.

    With all due respect, of course. I enjoy many of your writings but I roll my eyes a bit at the thought of more "vision" coming through the pipeline.


    "An emotionally deranged psychological vacuum inhabiting 'typical' SIRI long."
    Mar 25, 2012. 11:35 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Losing Lawsuit On Royalties, Sirius 'Not Happy' With The Turtles [View article]
    Sure but it's pennies and doesn't change the monthly sub rate. For those that may be sensitive to what might amount to pennies a month, there is and always will be over the air free radio available.
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    SIRI, LMCA, and myself thank you for your 50K retail contribution to the buyback program. ;)
    Aug 13, 2014. 03:50 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Comparing Apples To Oranges [View article]
    If it was we'd see a higher churn rate than 1.8% with 1% of that attributed to owners selling cars / moving to a new.

    Churn has been averaging down. Doesn't support the idea that anything is *killing* SIRI. Makes for an attractive headline, though!

    Sirius XM being KILLED by blahblahblah! You won't believe what it is!


    Those services aren't really even crippling growth if you look at the pace of sub additions. Yeah... on a percentage basis relative to the base an argument can be made that growth is slowing but linear adds are relatively stable as they should be.

    The short of it is that the headlines have said that such and such will kill SIRI for years now. Perhaps something will. Actually I'd say with 99% certainty something will someday... but the signs just aren't there to support it. Just speculation.

    Everyone is entitled to their own opinion :) The constant nonsense used to bother me, too, but unless you're willing to counter the daily articles that say the same thing with your own daily articles that say the same thing, the best one can do is roll their eyes :)
    Jul 29, 2014. 03:11 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment