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Stephen Faulkner

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  • Sirius XM Customer Dis-Service [View article]
    It's just very strange. Have continued calling here. Each time, straight through to a human being. Sometimes it's someone sounding Indian, sometimes it's someone sounding American.

    1 866 528 7474

    Say "customer service" and boom... done. No hold, and this is exactly what I have experienced every single time I have called over the years I have been a subscriber.
    Dec 31 05:46 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
    "how do you know they are buying above the share price? Where is that information please?"

    Forward contract, strike price $2.15, on top of which they pay fees. The fees are unknown, so it is only fair to say they are paying $2.15 per share for 302 million shares. They have also purchased shares on average price of around $2.13 immediately after they announced the first forward contract. This data is all readily available in their public announcements as well as the SEC form 4 data for their acquisitions.

    You can dig for their announcemnts. At this point they have been discussed all over the place, so there are tons of sources. Unless the share price of SIRI is over $2.15 when they close on 7/6, the fact is quite simple... they will be paying "above share price."

    "They DID say that they would not pay more than 2.15 ergo, a CAP."

    No, they absolutely did not state this. There is 'speculation' about this, and some authors / writers use this as a "fact" in their articles, but neither the company nor a representative of the company has ever stated this. Other people's articles are not sources. You, Me... we're "guys down the street" and certainly can be quoted for opinion but these blogs and opinion pieces are NOT a credible source to quote from as "fact." I will happily place a gentleman's bet with you on this one. I'll dye my hair orange and change it to my profile picture (for three days) if I am wrong, as well as posting an article around the statement with an admission of "wrong" linking to you and your article. If you're wrong, you merely admit it and post a link to my article, no orange hair. Fair? To be clear, I am saying they did NOT state / say, etc., that they would not pay more than $2.15 a share for Sirius XM. I also maintain that since their forward contract has a strike of $2.15 per share, and closes on July 6th, and because that $2.15 strike has added fees, that they are actually set to pay MORE than $2.15 per share for Sirius XM in the coming weeks. You in on this? Keep in mind the burden of proof would be on you, and we can give it a week for you to come up with said proof.

    It's unfortunate, Regarded Solutions, that you have taken so much offense to my questioning some of your reasoning in a recent article of yours, that you have decided to lower yourself to comments such as the one above, among others. There's absolutely no reason to be hostile on here. I'll gladly answer questions, comments, etc, and I'm happy to engage in discussion.

    Also, I can't dump SIRI. I'm in cash, and I have never shorted a stock in my life (and likely never will)... I don't hold SIRI at the moment, though you can be sure I will be following them, and adding when and if I am comfortable.
    Jun 29 05:26 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM [View article]
    He mentioned it. Therefore the article does not lose relevance.
    Feb 27 10:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Persistent Short Squeeze For Sirius XM But Not For Pandora [View article]

    How do you know around 270 million of these positions are hedged vs. the notes? That would mean that end of October and mid November there were only around, say, 1 to 10 million actual shorts on SIRI, or like 0.016% to 0.16% short. That would be outstanding for any stock out there.

    I'm always surprised how some relative veteran commenters on SA wade into commenting about .... oh nevermind :P I may not agree with Leah's articles but good lord, if you're going to use the know it all tone make sure you know it all :) lol

    I've always said much of that position is hedged but there's no way to know the exact number. One can only make assumptions and I think to make assumptions that nearly the full amount of hedged vs. those notes is wrong.

    We'll find out in a year I guess.
    Dec 22 12:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    If SIRI added commercials to the music stations I would do two things.

    1) Cancel my service.

    2) Immediately sell my investment in Sirius XM and move on.
    Dec 6 08:36 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: After $4 Billion, Where's The Growth? [View article]
    Buyers need sellers. And sellers (in my opinion) are wonderful for longs like me at this level. SIRI is in the middle of establishing an average that will set pricing of purchases from LMCA (as CN discussed). Two days left to set that price... and it appears they will get the lowest end of the range and thus get near maximum bang for the buck on $500 million more in repurchases.

    I hate suggesting anyone sell here... because I'd be lying if I were to say I thought that would be a good idea... but anyone selling / shorting / etc. right now is doing SIRI and 98% of my position a favor long term.... (those Nov 16th short term $3.50 calls are crying though... ! ;)
    Nov 8 12:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]

    Ask your friend CN?

    You have proven time and again you dislike my articles and opinions. Your questions here are a bait, and I'm not interested in taking it.

    I don't model for quarterly subscribers and have been quite clear about that since I started writing. I find that sort of micro analysis to be of little value.

    I'd suggest asking Spencer Osborne, who, in my opinion, does an excellent job on average in his estimations. You won't ask him, though... cuz you are not interested in the answer ;)
    Sep 29 06:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIRI Faces 'Sirius' Resistance [View article]
    Eh, actually, forget it Ol Blue Eyes. Was poking through your comments for the article here. I doubt they will take it and honestly I don't want to use the spotlight to embarass you.

    From your comments on SIRI which can be found here :

    July 9th you said :

    "The best thing you can do with the report of an investment analyst is to toss it out with last night's leftover pizza. Theirs is the most overrated and under productive job in the country. They seldom do any original research; they come up with wildly different predictions based on the same facts; they are wrong at least half the time and are almost never called to account for their errors."

    Yet here you ask for my credentials. I'd argue that the best you will find in the way of "credentials" these analysts you talk about tossing out with last night's leftover pizza (I'd argue that pizza is great for breakfast but if you want to toss it, be my guest).

    You seem to make the assumption here that I am writing for a "pathetic few extra bucks." But if you rewind to March 12th 2012 you will find a comment by you directed at Rocco Pendola:

    "Rock isn't a bad guy. It's his audience that lets him get under their skin with his very competent writing. He's a great fan of The Boss and he knows how to work SA to maximize his income. Nothing wrong with that. Just a smart guy."

    Did you ask for his credentials when he was suggesting shorting SIRI at $1.27 the year prior?

    From the same day, March 12th 2012 :

    " A large amount of money would just end up being wasted on bad ideas. They can invest wisely and buy back too."

    Is a comment you made regarding suggestions that the company use the cash on hand to branch out into new ideas vs. buy back the stock. Now you beat your dead horse of a tabletop radio to no end in comments.

    And one of my favorites, from when I started writing:

    "I think that it is very unfair to those SA contributors who have been earning a nice piece of change from SA for their Sirius overcoverage to suddenly have to compete for the Sirius investor's attention with all these johnny-come-latelies. I guess it's hard to keep a good thing to yourself, but really, new regulars Faulkner, Nadeem Moulvi, VFC's Stock House. And you have Crunching Numbers and Little Apple recycling ancient news from the Cramer interview under big new headlines. Perhaps Sirius investors should try to remain loyal to the SA contributors who have been overcovering Sirius for the longest time, before everyone decided to horn in."

    Ripping on myself, Crunching numbers, and Little Apple, no? In the same breath you suggest people remain LOYAL to writers like Rocco Pendola and Cameron Kaine (Richard Saintvilus) who were suggesting selling and / or shorting Sirius XM at prices under $2 a share a little over a year ago. Over 100% gain since then.

    Here's the deal. My problem with your constant negative barrage is it has no real substance behind it, and your past comments are all over the map and in complete conflict with one another. You may not choose to listen to what I have to say because I am not interested in just throwing out a wall of worry to "look smart" and that is fine. There's another author on here who is always concerned with everything SIRI does and sees little to no positives in anything, and you should probably follow him.

    Don't follow me just to correct me, though. You will be wasting your time. All I need is your comment that people should follow the "intelligence" of Rocco Pendola (Short SIRI "under a buck" as he said... because he likes Bruce Springsteen, no less) in response.

    One final note, you mention the readers of SA as a choir:

    "where the choir is not very sophisticated"

    And I think you do not give people enough credit here. I'd argue that many of the people I speak with directly ARE very sophisticated and understand SIRI quite well. It's why you see a bit of hostility from them when people just run around screaming "sell sell sell." They understand 1+1 = 2 and don't need others telling them that in another dimension 1+1 might equal 3.
    Sep 21 12:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 302 Million Liberty Shares Go 'Long Term' This Weekend [View article]
    What about the WHIG media! Sneaky buggers... nobody ever notices them!
    Jul 3 08:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Does Not Need To Raise Prices [View article]
    I just do not see much value in making up news or stories when there is a lack of news or stories. I could come up with ideas all day about what I would do if I were the head of a bunch of companies but that really doesn't help people with their investments. I'd argue that such things serve to confuse more than clarify.

    Furthermore your article skips over various issues so you may prove your point, such as stating that Sirius XM should raise prices in part to offset higher royalties. But you understand that Sirius XM has a fee called a music royalty fee, or MRF, which is a floating number and recently went up in order to offset these royalties, so why would Sirius XM increase prices on top of increasing prices?

    I get it. SIRI is probably going to be pretty darn boring until the Q2 call other than share price movement and finding stuff to write about in the meantime may be difficult as the "story" has been told and will likely change very little if at all. If stuff is made up ... I'll probably write an article in disagreement and point out the errors / things which are simply made up.
    May 30 01:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Awwww DRAT! ;)
    Jan 25 08:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Serious About Sirius XM [View article]
    "Liberty Media owns close to 50% of all shares and has "capped" the share price at $2.15 by stating they will not pay more for the shares"

    Where did Liberty Media state this? If you can find it I will be very very very surprised. They are also paying $2.15 share price plus fees, which are estimated to be at $0.15 per share, making the total they are paying $2.30.

    "Mel Karmazin has been exercising his options for cash, not for shares"

    Incorrect. Mel has been exercising his options and converting them for shares at the strike price, paying for them, and then reselling those shares.

    "Karmazin has sold roughly half of his position, and the "dumping" could continue for another 3-6 months"

    Actually, his sales will continue as outlined in the plan disseminated in February of this year. You are also incorrect in stating he has sold half his position. He has sold a quarter of his position, has plans to convert and sell half total, and has no plans currently to sell the other 50%, or 60 million shares he has in options, or the roughly 10 million shares he holds personally. Mel is actually selling out less than half of his total shares, which begs the question, why would he keep over 50% of his stake, including his personally held shares which are not in options, if he lacks faith in the stock?

    "Traders are staying away because the RSI (relative strength index) has been terrible to trade within as has the very narrow range "

    Really? 5% swings aren't enough for traders? I think you're mistaken here. You're throwing out a term like "RSI" and saying that this is the reason traders have stayed away from the stock. What, then, has moved the price of SIRI up and down 5%, and what has caused the volume? How did this happen with no trades?

    "I have read all sorts of articles recently that have suggested various ways to make money by owning SIRI shares. Mostly it has to do with buying shares and selling covered calls. That does make some sense if you were bullish about the stock, but actually if you were bullish about the stock you would just buy and hold."

    You're completely wrong here. Selling covered calls is a strategy for those who are mildly bullish. What you are saying "the stock is stuck" is the PERFECT situation for one to buy a stock and sell covered calls! If I buy a stock today at $2 and have a bullish sentiment of 20% appreciation in a year, and sell a $2.50 covered call a year out for $0.15 per, and the stock appreciates to $2.40, I make MORE than if I had merely bought and held the stock. If you are interested in learning about options strategies there are many informative books out there, or even resources on the web. Covered calls are honestly the first option strategy one learns, and it's a bullish strategy. I do see you've said it makes sense if you are bullish on the stock, but then you contradict and conclude saying it doesn't make sense if you are bullish, as anyone bullish would buy and hold.

    "It is my opinion that the share price will continue its death march (either down or sideways) until Liberty Media finally takes complete control, or when Mel Karmazin finally leaves"

    But you suggest holding the stock if one owns it? Why would you suggest an individual hold a stock that will "continue its death march"?

    While I agree this is not the time to buy back in to SIRI for myself, and that SIRI is currently in a downtrend, your reasoning has a lot of holes or is quite simply misinformed in some cases.

    "That is the reason I have a lifetime subscription and always will, no matter who owns the company."

    Well of course you "always will." It's a lifetime subscription... if Pee Wee Herman takes over the company you'll still have a subscription.... lol :)
    Jun 26 09:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings: On The Way To New Highs? [View article]
    "This was about the only negative in their whole presentation, but that is what put downward pressure on the price."

    Is it? Are you sure it has nothing to do with the deal on the table and LMCA going down, and the expectations of the valuation of the offer (if it were to go through) and the resulting valuation if SIRI shares?

    Until this deal is off the table or completed, expect SIRI to be locked with LMCA's share price (exactly as it has been).
    Feb 6 04:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings: On The Way To New Highs? [View article]
    Write offs.
    Feb 6 12:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Investors Vs. Users: $27 For One Share, Or $23+ Per Month [View article]
    I don't forget... how many vehicles are you juggling on your commute? I have a Lynx portable which can move from vehicle to vehicle so the usage is similar (albeit you have to get another antenna for a separate car... but SIRI has sent me these for free after a simple phone call).

    If you are referring to a husband / wife heading to work seperately, double the data for Pandora. I guess I am not quite sure you thought about what you just threw out there.

    Some real world tests come in at half Verizon's estimates, yes. It's likely that this is due to Pandora's lower quality option or user's lower quality connections forcing lower quality audio to provide for a smooth experience.

    I did a real world test some time ago and found with the good quality audio that data usage fell more in line with Verizon / AT+T's estimates. Regardless, it is not free by any stretch of the imagination.
    Nov 12 08:15 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment