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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: Is Nobody Else Excited About Agero? [View article]
    Thanks PG :)
    Aug 24, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Is Nobody Else Excited About Agero? [View article]
    You can't take profits yet still realize future gains on that same amount... lol I wish it worked that way!
    Aug 23, 2013. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Shorts Cover By $84.6 Million [View article]
    I have done some trades over the past few weeks and done really well, but that's fun money / high risk and maybe 1 to 2% max of everything. I appreciate the offers and ideas and I do listen, but I did not play with GLD or SLV as my attention was elsewhere.

    YHOO, AAPL, SPY were trades I took and did very well with. The *only* bad days I had? Holding things too long and going against my rules I set for myself. Lesson learned, and thankfully losses were minor on those few trades, and massively eclipsed by the gains.

    I really don't have time to trade for awhile... my free time will be outside of market hours until the ground freezes and sales calls slow (I sell emergency power systems, and home owners are not likely to spend more for trenching frozen ground or installing under snow vs. simply waiting for spring). So I bought SIRI at $3.62 today with that cash and it can simmer there. I don't worry about my SIRI so much as a weekly option at $1.00 I am looking to flip out of at $1.15 on a $165 stock that has 2 days to go :P holding that stuff overnight will make you restless!

    I do own some GME short term. We'll see what happens over the weekend. Conditional sells near $54 and $51.

    (I do wish I had taken my bearish Pandora bet though before close yesterday!... darn it!... that would have been a quick 75%! )
    Aug 23, 2013. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    You're welcome BLD :)
    Aug 23, 2013. 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    Nah it's not all new car sales. I mean, they assist with growth... it gets more radios out there, but consider churn includes those buying cars who are already subscribers and thus cancelling the old radio and moving to a new trial.

    It's a complex system of people moving around within the system. Net deactivations are not all people who are "cancelling" and as time goes on more and more of those deactivations are people who are simply moving vehicles.

    Less new cars should = old cars that are kept longer. Of course, SIRI will slow in growth at SOME point but I don't see that being a concern at the moment, even if new car sales were to slow down a bit (which I don't see them doing).
    Aug 23, 2013. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    It would be a slowdown but I don't think anyone would be particularly disappointed with that rate of return.

    IMO % gains will slowdown but $$$ gains should remain similar. Linear progression vs. geometric.

    That is, of course, absent the buybacks and absent the possible benefits of Agero (and whatever else may be in the works). That's where you may get a bit of a shift in gains .

    Arguably.... the linear trend from 2009 to 7/2012 shifted on 7/12. New trend, higher rate of $$$ appreciation at that point.

    Trend lines can be seen on weekly chart, pull up from lows of 2009 until 7/12 and supporting trend is easy to see right up to $1.85

    Price has not dropped back to that trend in a very long time (it is currently at $2.50)

    Now pull up from 7/02/12 and use 6/24/2013 bottom. New trend, currently at low of about $3.50.

    Event week of 7/02/12 was Liberty closing on its forward contract for 302 million shares I think it was.

    New support trend is $0.005 per day give or take..., old support trend was about $0.002 per day or so. If you want "best" buys that have not been broken and show very clear support, those lines are keys. Long term resistance has remained the same. This is somewhat interesting as the rate of increase of support is faster than the resistance. Something will have to give one way or another at some point.

    (remarkably slow Friday, sorry for the long winded run on!)
    Aug 23, 2013. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    As I posted in the shorts article, bought SIRI here today $3.62 earlier with the bit of cash I was using to "learn" trading, sticking with the buy a couple pennies over the 50 day moving average strategy.

    Looking good so far. I think we at least go back to retest highs assuming it breaks 3.72.
    Aug 23, 2013. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    "1. If revenues go up to 2 billion from 1 billion, then buying back shares, at $6 then, is the same as buying them at $3 now."

    Eh... I don't see that. Relative to revenue yes you can make the comparison but buying $3 today when share price hits $6 tomorrow just turned today's revenue into tomorrow's revenue in that case.

    It's complex in integration as to how it all works out but sooner and lower is better than later and higher, even if price follows revenue.
    Aug 23, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    Fine by me... let the street not see what we see (or at least what we think we see). SIRI is buying back here... and the cheaper the better. Though I have said buyback prices don't *really* matter in the long run because it should be ALL good... I can't argue that lower prices are not better prices for the company to repurchase at :)
    Aug 23, 2013. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    As easy pointed out below these are options. They allow me leverage (essentially) in my IRA. It would take a lot to explain them if you are unsure of what they are to begin with.
    Aug 23, 2013. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Shorts Cover By $84.6 Million [View article]
    As promised, "trade" cash into SIRI, 3.62.
    Aug 23, 2013. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    Elvis lives!
    Aug 23, 2013. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    I am not sure it is worth the time entertaining the thought of LMCA just simply dumping SIRI tomorrow... as I think the chances of that happening are 0.... It's like wondering what would happen if the moon shot off out of orbit and into the Sun... ;)

    There's that Turtles lawsuit... but I'm not particularly concerned with that.

    I figure the market flubs around for a bit here until they don't taper in September.
    Aug 23, 2013. 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    I'm sure we'll get more color on this after the acquisition.
    Aug 22, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Worried? Don't Be [View article]
    Media companies are not valued on p/e (typically). EV/ EBITDA and multiple should reflect expectations of growth.

    Remember to factor in float shrink and future financial benefits of buyback as SIRI is buying back and appreciating asset.

    $1000 in SIRI at say, $0.10 is a nice $36,500 or so right now. :) 3550% gain, 4 years. Other stocks have done as well but there are none in the media space that I know of.
    Aug 22, 2013. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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