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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    That's a fairly new feature. I don't really listen to radio over IP so I haven't tried it out but from what I have heard it is "interesting" :)

    Honestly as far as IP listening goes I'd love a service which allows me to listen to curated content or allows me to access any song, any time for one monthly fee.

    Hopefully SIRI will advertise increased features and whanot at the right time. :)
    Apr 7 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    "Then again, I often find the price behavior of SIRI defies logic."

    The price of every stock often defies logic... these things do not move in straight lines...
    Apr 7 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    "The first forward was a significant chunk, but certainly not a "vast majority" of what it needed"

    Ok ok ... pick pick pick pick :P You're not gonna find any nits in my hair....

    "Anyone who sold during the period at artificially low prices would raise the stink."

    Artificially low? If SIRI was buying back and it was public knowledge could investors not complain that share prices were made artificially high for their purchases? That SIRI was buying back higher to detriment of holders?

    I think if people sold (or day traded) that they are no longer "investors," no? SIRI disclosed they would be buying. SIRI can set up an arrangement with a third party to secure shares. SIRI can buy those shares later, yet state that they have not yet bought any shares because they... have not yet bought any shares. The point of my fourth article last year was that there were ways around things which do not require a company discloses something or allows them to say "we are not" when in actuality they ARE doing it... in a roundabouts way. I found plenty of ways to get two cookies without getting in trouble when I was a kid, when I was originally told I could only have one.... one for each hand? Have my brother give me his cookie in return for doing his chore? Have my brother give me his cookie or else....? Rules and regulations, generally, are like the guarantees stamped on the sides of everything.... makes you feel good :P

    "Or we may not, according to your article... If there were share purchases in Q1 through a 3rd party, Sirius would state there were no purchases"

    May state. "Do not be surprised if..." is different than "would state." I'm not going to be surprised either way. If they say they have bought shares or not, I'll accept the possibility that they may have done so through a forward like LMCA did last year.

    "But again, I fail to see the need to hide the fact that Sirius actually purchased stock."

    Was there a need to hide LMCA having bought? Heck, when they said they had the stock went down :)

    "The more shares that had been purchased, the less future buying pressure from Sirius and the less fuel for upward pressure on the share price."

    Think so?

    "I'm still missing something important here."

    I don't think you are... I think we just have different perspectives.
    Apr 7 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    Yeah but do longs really care about market undulations other than to find entry points to add to position?

    You can find ghosts in the machine anytime you want, and every single day whether the market is at 1600, 1200, 800, or 600 there will be people claiming that everything is going to hell. Fear sells.

    Bunch of people out there trying to appear like geniuses talking about the market is too high, we need a correction, bubble this and bubble that. What, that got tired of telling everyone to get out because of the "fiscal cliff" or the "sequester" ? =/

    Not criticizing you, just that the stuff you typed up here are macro issues (or are they?) that shouldn't impact what is going on right now.

    If SIRI is able to buy back at lower pricing, that should be viewed as highly positive, and not a bd thing at all. Less than $2.90? Bring it on. Heck, bring it down to $0.10 again and let them buy back the company with money to spare!
    Apr 7 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    It's all speculation :) I just don't tend to dig into certain types like ideas about international expansion, SIRI data service, buyout ideas "Apple should buy Sirius XM" and whatnot... Any time I go down that path on suggestion I hate writing the article / comment :P
    Apr 6 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    UBS was back on level 2 as of April 1st, day after quarter ended. If there's any time to back off it's after the quarter ends, not a simple few days before the call.

    They may disclose in Q1, but I would not be surprised if there was no disclosure. Disclosure or not I still believe they have contracted for these shares to be delived en masse at the end. So they third party the thing and let them handle it and deliver at the end... "we haven't bought yet" can be said right up until delivery, even if the third party bought the shares for them already.
    Apr 6 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    Wall Street Cheat Sheet are just random people like anywhere else. Don't think they are trying to drive the price... they're compensated for an opinion, that's all (as most are).

    Institutional count is 29% I think... LMCA is 51%, putting larger hands at about 80% of SIRI.

    Keep in mind that for the stock to go down all it takes is for buyers to do nothing... kinda like that saying for evil to triumph all it takes is for good men to do nothing ;) Big buyer off gives price control to the shorts... question is how long do the buyers stay back? I know quite a few looking for a simple gap fill at $2.90 that sold out near $3.25.... couple million shares gonna move the needle? Not likely... but added to others who may use that point to pick up shares... and there could be a strong bounce at a gap fill. I'm kinda banking on that as I'm ready to buy near the $2.90 area.
    Apr 6 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    Within almost 9 months? certainly :)
    Apr 6 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    We'll see if it's good detective work :) I could certainly be wrong here.... but an entity has been buying for four straight months and some things match up with SIRI. Heck, LMCA could have initiated the forward and transferred it over to SIRI later.... there are lots of possibilities here that would allow SIRI to circumvent disclosure, and allow them to say over and over "we have not purchased any shares yet."

    Time will tell...
    Apr 6 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    Well it depends how news is taken if this is true. Huge upside surprise or huge downside surprise? How will the street take it? Will investors looking for the buyback to drive prices through the roof bail at that point?

    If SIRI has bought back through a forward, they should have "round two" ready... release the info about the first buyback being filled or mostly filled with a forward, announce a second, and grab up shares of those who sell out because they were only in it for the pump?

    There's also the possibility that some other entity was buying huge numbers of shares... but I have a hard time figuring out who might be interested in that unless the idea is for them to make a direct offer to SIRI on the buyback ...

    Regardless of who has been doing the buying, someone(s) has(have). The money flow is far too high to point to retail, unless you believe retail has pumped in about $1.2 billion in positive cash... Nah, I'd say retail has been selling out... which is JUST FINE by me :) As I said last weekend, please, for the love of God, sell your shares! I'm in it for the longer haul....
    Apr 6 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    I think you're looking at things with too narrow of a perspective. Remember when I wrote here :

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    You commented :

    "For all we know, Liberty has acquired 49.9% already, but I doubt it. While Maffei was a bit evasive on some answers on the CC, I don't think he's stupid enough to lie. It just doesn't seem to be worth the risk. "

    Regarding speculation on Liberty's first forward. In that article I had speculated on a forward contract without knowing it was called a forward contract (still learning!) but the concept is similar. Don't focus too much on lies and whatnot... there are ways around every mountain, and I don't think any sane investor would raise a stink on a purchase through a forward at low pricing. Traders may but... well, they're not investors... Shorts may but... well, they're not investors. And I just don't see it as lying if it is said they have not bought any shares yet, when a third party is accumulating and they will 'eventually' buy those shares.

    A third party contract to grab hundreds of millions of shares while being able to say "we haven't bought yet" is exactly the way I would do it (assuming it is legal).

    I'm sure we'll find out soon enough :)
    Apr 6 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    I get what googer is saying though he certainly could have been more tactful. Keep in mind that lower pricing may still come. I would not be surprised to see a "gap fill" at least in short order here. It's a few cents away.

    I also know people who have bought and sold on the way down and made a few hundred bucks here and there. It's not a game I wish to play, but some are making money on the pennies. Me? I wired funds this afternoon and am looking for a specific buy if the stock hits around $2.90. The longer it stays lower, the better, in my opinion :) Gives me time to accumulate more.
    Apr 5 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Massive Buyback Through A Forward Contract With UBS? [View article]
    I just watched Evil Dead.... the boogeyman is child's play in comparison! ;)
    Apr 5 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Absolutely Critical To Liberty Media [View article]
    Yeah it has to do with the GM deal. Spencer is better to ask on the specifics of that as he understands the situation to a T.
    Apr 3 06:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Short Interest Decreases (Mid-March Update) [View article]
    Thanks Bill :)
    Apr 3 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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