Seeking Alpha

Stephen Faulkner

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Stephen Faulkner's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Sirius XM Does Not Need To Raise Prices [View article]
    "This is the business of writing and blogging - things are made up from time to time. Otherwise, you are just a reporter. That ain't fun :-)"

    I think that's a problem. My understanding is that things are not supposed to be "made up?"
    May 30 02:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Outlook For Sirius XM's Average Subscription Fee [View article]
    Are you guys kidding with this computer generated stuff? Your price target formula says if I DOUBLE current revenue per subscriber that the stock's price target is only $4.40, less than 2x what your price target is at $134 per sub.

    So let me get this straight. If Sirius XM brings in DOUBLE the revenue (MRF will absorb the increased costs of royalties) and other costs stay the same, SIRI will not even be worth twice as much as it currently is.

    Do you see why this is absurd?

    You guys write some ok articles but man ya have to lose that silly interactive price target thing unless you're going to make it reasonable....
    Apr 30 07:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    I'm am very confused at the idea of entering a short with a 5 year horizon... you even stated that tech is notoriously dangerous to be in long term. I agree and it goes both ways with the danger on that, short or long.

    Just be careful...
    Mar 4 01:42 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Customer Dis-Service [View article]
    It's just very strange. Have continued calling here. Each time, straight through to a human being. Sometimes it's someone sounding Indian, sometimes it's someone sounding American.

    1 866 528 7474

    Say "customer service" and boom... done. No hold, and this is exactly what I have experienced every single time I have called over the years I have been a subscriber.
    Dec 31 05:46 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Reflections For The Weekend [View article]
    "how do you know they are buying above the share price? Where is that information please?"

    Forward contract, strike price $2.15, on top of which they pay fees. The fees are unknown, so it is only fair to say they are paying $2.15 per share for 302 million shares. They have also purchased shares on average price of around $2.13 immediately after they announced the first forward contract. This data is all readily available in their public announcements as well as the SEC form 4 data for their acquisitions.

    http://bit.ly/J1Ynq2

    You can dig for their announcemnts. At this point they have been discussed all over the place, so there are tons of sources. Unless the share price of SIRI is over $2.15 when they close on 7/6, the fact is quite simple... they will be paying "above share price."

    "They DID say that they would not pay more than 2.15 ergo, a CAP."

    No, they absolutely did not state this. There is 'speculation' about this, and some authors / writers use this as a "fact" in their articles, but neither the company nor a representative of the company has ever stated this. Other people's articles are not sources. You, Me... we're "guys down the street" and certainly can be quoted for opinion but these blogs and opinion pieces are NOT a credible source to quote from as "fact." I will happily place a gentleman's bet with you on this one. I'll dye my hair orange and change it to my profile picture (for three days) if I am wrong, as well as posting an article around the statement with an admission of "wrong" linking to you and your article. If you're wrong, you merely admit it and post a link to my article, no orange hair. Fair? To be clear, I am saying they did NOT state / say, etc., that they would not pay more than $2.15 a share for Sirius XM. I also maintain that since their forward contract has a strike of $2.15 per share, and closes on July 6th, and because that $2.15 strike has added fees, that they are actually set to pay MORE than $2.15 per share for Sirius XM in the coming weeks. You in on this? Keep in mind the burden of proof would be on you, and we can give it a week for you to come up with said proof.

    It's unfortunate, Regarded Solutions, that you have taken so much offense to my questioning some of your reasoning in a recent article of yours, that you have decided to lower yourself to comments such as the one above, among others. There's absolutely no reason to be hostile on here. I'll gladly answer questions, comments, etc, and I'm happy to engage in discussion.

    Also, I can't dump SIRI. I'm in cash, and I have never shorted a stock in my life (and likely never will)... I don't hold SIRI at the moment, though you can be sure I will be following them, and adding when and if I am comfortable.
    Jun 29 05:26 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Strong Sell [View article]
    Good enough to see all viewpoints. Not all authors follow a stock closely and some will just do a sort of drive by analysis and move on to the next.

    It's good to see the perspectives of those who do, though, to understand how the stock may look to the passer by :)

    I feel like most of these types of articles come out as a stock drags low, and at some of the best buy points. Similarly you'll see a lot of "drive by buys" when a stock is topping out.
    Jul 14 09:10 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: A Strong Sell [View article]
    We'll see after Q2 and reaction. :) Going to have to be a good quarter coupled with certain things happening EOY.

    I think a revisit to last year's highs is a pretty sure bet, though.
    Jul 14 09:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Caught Between Apple, Google, Amazon And A Hard Place [View article]
    Fiscal cliff! I remember that scary stuff! Yikes! We were all doomed ahhhh!!

    SIRI paid it in almost exact amounts so LMCA could purchase the remaining shares it needed to go to control. There were a few articles on it. Think Spencer had one. Be good reading material for you! :)

    Blue chip dividends. Ok then buy blue chip dividend paying stocks? Why the heck would I want SIRI to go that route?

    "Yeah, you're not a fan of paychecks, either."

    I'm a fan of MY paycheck... probably not yours lol.

    I do see beyond Q2! That's why I haven't advocated that people sell! It's why I don't shift my price targets based on the current price of the company... You had a $5 target for 2013 and then said to short it back when it was down near $3! My goodness...

    I have a good multi year history with this stock at this point :) You... not so much... under this name or your previous ones. =/
    Jun 30 05:07 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications? [View article]
    Wall Street Playbook,

    What was P/E when you had a $5 target last year? What was it when you said dump the stock down to $1.65 in 2012? What would P/E be at your current target of $3.50? Why do you believe P/E of.... 60? Should go higher from here? What would it have been when you wrote SIRI is an attractive short a few weeks prior with a price target of $3?

    Perhaps you can shed light on why you chose to focus on enterprise value and EBITDA when you presented a bullish case for SIRI but choose P/E when bearish?
    Jun 9 09:20 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings Is A Worthwhile Speculation [View article]
    Appreciate your perspective, Alexander. Thanks!
    May 19 03:54 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM's Dip [View article]
    Where was P/E when you projected $5 per share in 2013?

    (I can't find it as I don't know which one of your other names you posted that one under...? Perhaps you can supply a link? If you used P/E there then I will have to eat my comment ! :) )
    May 12 07:06 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM [View article]
    He mentioned it. Therefore the article does not lose relevance.
    Feb 27 10:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Persistent Short Squeeze For Sirius XM But Not For Pandora [View article]
    Jack...

    How do you know around 270 million of these positions are hedged vs. the notes? That would mean that end of October and mid November there were only around, say, 1 to 10 million actual shorts on SIRI, or like 0.016% to 0.16% short. That would be outstanding for any stock out there.

    I'm always surprised how some relative veteran commenters on SA wade into commenting about .... oh nevermind :P I may not agree with Leah's articles but good lord, if you're going to use the know it all tone make sure you know it all :) lol

    I've always said much of that position is hedged but there's no way to know the exact number. One can only make assumptions and I think to make assumptions that nearly the full amount of hedged vs. those notes is wrong.

    We'll find out in a year I guess.
    Dec 22 12:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    If SIRI added commercials to the music stations I would do two things.

    1) Cancel my service.

    2) Immediately sell my investment in Sirius XM and move on.
    Dec 6 08:36 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: After $4 Billion, Where's The Growth? [View article]
    Buyers need sellers. And sellers (in my opinion) are wonderful for longs like me at this level. SIRI is in the middle of establishing an average that will set pricing of purchases from LMCA (as CN discussed). Two days left to set that price... and it appears they will get the lowest end of the range and thus get near maximum bang for the buck on $500 million more in repurchases.

    I hate suggesting anyone sell here... because I'd be lying if I were to say I thought that would be a good idea... but anyone selling / shorting / etc. right now is doing SIRI and 98% of my position a favor long term.... (those Nov 16th short term $3.50 calls are crying though... ! ;)
    Nov 8 12:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8,275 Comments
6,379 Likes