Seeking Alpha

Stephen Faulkner

View as an RSS Feed
View Stephen Faulkner's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    "A lot of us have seen siri rise from the dead, and always expected someday to see a major breakout."

    Anyone looking for a "major breakout" with SIRI is going to be disappointed. It might make good moves in short times (especially from oversold levels, 1.27, 1.80, etc) but a major breakout? What the heck would be the catalyst for such a thing? Please explain why you felt you would get a "major breakout" in SIRI.

    "I'd say over the last 2 years anyone holding this stock could have done much better elsewhere, but because too many of us tenaciously hold on and focus on this holding we are becoming extremely myopic. And that is not a good. x"

    45% return holding for 2 years. You're joking right? Anyone could have done much better elsewhere? Seriously. ARE YOU JOKING? You mention SCHM but that is up 41%.

    You come to the boards and run around suggesting people flit in and out with you. A little here, a little there... sell this buy that etc. All fine, but don't make stuff up. If you held SIRI for 2 years you have outperformed the market, even if you can cherry pick other time frames that it has not.

    "Are you also investing elsewhere? I believe an investment of over $60,000 would produce just as well or better and safer. Siri has gone up 5%ish over the last year while a no brain-er (and historically safe) ETF like SCHM is up 25%ish"

    Yeahhhh good idea. Sell what you feel is undervalued and buy SCHM. Sounds like jojopuppyfish is making the right move if he feels SIRI is undervalued.

    Have you sold your SIRI you bought above these levels, edward? Is there a reason you purchased SIRI within the last month vs. buying SCHM with those funds? Is there a reason you're attempting to discourage people from buying SIRI lower than your purchase price?

    If SIRI was $5 and had outperformed, would you suggest people buy it and sell SCHM? ;) If SIRI was $2 a share and had no appreciation in 2 years would you suggest people sell it?
    Apr 18 05:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings: On The Way To New Highs? [View article]
    "This was about the only negative in their whole presentation, but that is what put downward pressure on the price."

    Is it? Are you sure it has nothing to do with the deal on the table and LMCA going down, and the expectations of the valuation of the offer (if it were to go through) and the resulting valuation if SIRI shares?

    Until this deal is off the table or completed, expect SIRI to be locked with LMCA's share price (exactly as it has been).
    Feb 6 04:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings: On The Way To New Highs? [View article]
    Write offs.
    Feb 6 12:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Investors Vs. Users: $27 For One Share, Or $23+ Per Month [View article]
    I don't forget... how many vehicles are you juggling on your commute? I have a Lynx portable which can move from vehicle to vehicle so the usage is similar (albeit you have to get another antenna for a separate car... but SIRI has sent me these for free after a simple phone call).

    If you are referring to a husband / wife heading to work seperately, double the data for Pandora. I guess I am not quite sure you thought about what you just threw out there.

    Some real world tests come in at half Verizon's estimates, yes. It's likely that this is due to Pandora's lower quality option or user's lower quality connections forcing lower quality audio to provide for a smooth experience.

    I did a real world test some time ago and found with the good quality audio that data usage fell more in line with Verizon / AT+T's estimates. Regardless, it is not free by any stretch of the imagination.
    Nov 12 08:15 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: It Seems The Buyback Has Started [View article]
    nino you have been saying malone has done back door deals on the siri buybacks but this has not happened. You said it the other day as well.... Unless you have some sort of proof that Malone has a deal in place on the buybacks, knock it off. And even if he does it's the same... shares removed. Doesn't matter where they are bought from and EVEN BETTER if they are bought in a deal at a fixed price than if they are bought back at higher pricing. I understand you're trying to scare the longs that have held... but man, give it a rest!
    Mar 27 10:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    Daniel is filtering content!

    These are not cheerleaders and ignorant fools, Daniel (I am sure there are some.. but few.) You came into this highly unprepared to deal with the very knowledgeable community of SIRI longs. You MUST be more educated than your intended audience if you wish to debate them. Having an opinion and a chip on your shoulder is not sufficient.
    Mar 5 05:25 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
    Mick you always bring a good perspective to the table and present it in an eloquent yet humorous manner :)
    Mar 4 01:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Shorts Exceed 400 Million Bad Ideas [View article]
    Nino already is going nuts. He's part of that short position and was expecting Malone's actions to destroy Sirius XM.

    You guys need to lay off the other writers, though. C'mon... as far as I know all are bullish here. Everyone just has different opinions as to their level of bullishness and their approach to analysis. All opinions presented here are valuable. I may disagree with some opinions, and readers may disagree with some opinions, but civil thought provoking discussion works best!
    Feb 11 07:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM's Stock Looks Rich Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Trefis uses a computer generated algorithm to arrive at stock prices.

    Not to be taken seriously.
    Feb 5 02:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Shorts Squeezed Badly [View article]
    Congrats to you and anyone else who is long as well! :)
    Dec 14 05:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Sirius XM Investors Just Don't Get It [View article]
    "I view this as a financial engineering transaction, rather than some long term strategic action by Liberty or Malone. Will this benefit Sirius XM shareholders? It is difficult to know, but I suspect that investors will find that Sirius XM will overpay for the shares purchased in the buyback. On the other hand, I expect that Liberty and Malone will do quite well."

    I cannot fathom why, if this is your position, that you are long SIRI and not LMCA instead? You're basically saying that SIRI is going to get grabbed by the hair by LMCA, pulled through the mud, and left on the side of the road beaten and bruised having overpaid for shares and end up leveraged nearly 5.5X? Yet you hold SIRI and not LMCA?

    I just don't see this happening. Makes no sense to me at all. So Liberty participates in a buyback, leverages up to what is bordering on a damaging level (to the point it knocks the credit rating down, possibly several notches as you state they will lever up "way above" what S&P would like), then executes an RMT and spins the company to share holders.

    Who "wins" there? SIRI? No, SIRI gets essentially destroyed, or saddled with debt to the point it ends up beaten down to the brink of financial disaster on any single hiccup. LMCA shareholders? No... they get to participate in a buyback appreciation, sure (same as the straight SIRI holder), but they get spun out debt laden SIRI that's one bad quarter away from financial disaster. Malone? Not really... he gets similar to what the LMCA holders get.

    The "win" play in your scenario is to stay long SIRI, ride the rapid run up on a buyback, and dump immediately before the RMT and buy LMCA for the quick "premium" then immediately dump the spun stock, I guess? LMCA being partial SIRI should receive less benefit percentage wise from a SIRI buyback than straight SIRI (the 100% play), the assumed "premium" goes to LMCA in the RMT so dumping SIRI then going LMCA makes sense, then you are spun a damaged / near death company so just be sure you're one of the first to sell.

    It's just not reasonable to think that the intention here is for LMCA to chew up SIRI and spit it out.

    I enjoy your articles and abilities to pull facts and crunch numbers with precision... but I *think* you're getting outta your zone here as this is a lot of speculation. (and you're still claiming Malone has indicated he wants a premium when he has not ! ;) While I don't doubt there will be a RMT *at some point*, I don't think before that that Liberty will over extend SIRI to dangerous levels on credit. Lever up? Sure. To the point the credit rating gets decimated and they're left choked out on debt? Absolutely not.
    Oct 26 04:21 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mel Karmazin Completes Sirius XM Stock Sales [View article]
    NINO, if you are what you say you are...

    "Licensed NASD broker since 1982, wholesaling house products, $1.2 Billion in sales, NASD licenses: 22,39,7, 24,27, 63"

    Then you understand how these planned sales work. Knock it off with the fear mongering and spreading of disinformation. You understand that the sales are through a plan and he has no control of the sale date.

    Your comments are deliberately misleading and disruptive. Get outta here.
    Oct 18 10:04 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Is Liberty Supporting The Share Price On Purpose? [View article]
    "Why don't you tell us again about your theories on why all the convertibles would be converted at below 1.87, so they would get a premium, and that's what Liberty would pay."

    Because I didn't say that the first time. How can I say something again than I never said in the first place?

    "And tell us again why you sold everthing below $2 because it was going so much lower."

    I did sell at $1.95 and I outlined why, and my plan to buy lower *if* it headed there, and why I thought it *might* head there, but in the same article I illustrated my intent to re-buy around the same price with a few undisclosed conditions if my lower price assumption was not met. Price never went lower, I re-bought for a few pennies higher, and easily made it up in a couple of trades after the fact.

    " All that negative crap you were writing 2-3 months ago."

    2-3 months ago I wrote one article, and then I followed much later with a few articles when I was considering getting back in but "not yet." I was fairly silent for about 6 weeks. It's all there in my history, Jack. Pretty clear to see. You commented on the article in question at the time, yet you are making it sound here like I beat some drum about my idea and led people to their doom. It was one article where I sold. Heck I even said in the article that it was a speculative play and for longer term investors ANY of the current prices at the time looked good for a buy. It's right there... not like I can edit that stuff in there now.

    "You were scaring people out of Sirius when they could have been buying 70 cents lower. Now you are pumping because you missed that buying opportunity and paid much higher to get back in."

    I commented when I bought back in and at what price. $2.02. Sale? $1.95. Difference? $0.07. Follow more closely, Jack. You're ignoring the other trades since then on the way up which have easily erased that 7 cent loss and increased my position as well. I'm pretty clear with those when I do them, or at least outline them a day ahead of time and the price points.

    "Liberty is the only buyer now and is willing to pay up to $2.54. What happens when the only buyer is not buying anymore and only the sellers are left? Give us some theories on that scenario."

    Lose the attitude, get the chip off your shoulder, and take a time out. Then *ask* if I will give you some theories and perhaps I might answer. I have no problem with debate or dissenting opinion, but your attitude is foul and your "facts" are misrepresentations. Check both before you come in the door again if you wish to have a back and forth discussion, or in the future you can talk to your own shadow.

    Enjoy your weekend.
    Aug 31 06:15 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Has Tested $1.83 - What's Next? [View article]
    Spencer nice article. I sold out today at open, $1.95/4 And liquidated my June calls.

    I have an article in queue explaining why and on my new entry points, one at $1.47 and another back at $1.95. Basically I'm long either way, back when it hits my sell point or if it dips enough to my low point.

    For what it's worth, Jeff Pierce has been very sharp with SIRI technical analysis, and technical analysis in general. I listened to him on Demian's show Tuesday and what he said along with the information I wrote about Monday, as well as UBS' position at 233 million shares I found yesterday (which is STILL not out in the public domain on any of the institutional holdings lists except Fidelity...??? it's not on Nasdaq, for instance, but the filing is right here at the SEC : Anyways, there's specific reasons I think it'll hit $1.50 or less in short order and it has to do with what I see as a potential $220 million payday for the bond holders, or 40% (maybe more?). It's terribly for the short term, great for the long term. Watch for the change of control which will lock in the bonus afforded to them, and make shorting the stock almost pointless ....

    In my opinion we are in for a VERY fast drop and subsequently a very fast return to the $2.15 range. Keep an eye on it...

    This whole thing stinks, but as I always say, what're ya gonna do about it? Can't beat 'em. Follow the money, look a few steps ahead, make some cash. This is showing a tremendous opportunity as the puzzle pieces come together.
    May 17 07:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check Your Scales: Pandora Is A Net Exporter Of Content [View article]
    You just did it again. This is what I wrote here :

    "It is quite clear that I bought shorter term puts against Pandora due to technical reasons, and the stock flirting with danger at the $10 level, combined with some of my longer and shorter term views surrounding the company."

    This is what your reply with :

    "If your reason for buying puts was purely technical, why mix that with fundamental analysis?"

    Purely technical? Read what I typed to you, slowly. Read it again. And then, read it again, until you understand that what I said was not at all "purely technical."

    How am I supposed to have debate or discussion with you? Either you are purposefully ignoring what I state or you are somehow missing things like reading a story through the holes in a piece of swiss cheese taped to your forehead. The last time you attempted this with one of my articles it was the very same story, and I was forced to debate you with the most basic of statements.

    To be fair you do present the other side :

    "If it wasn't purely technical, wasn't the fundamental part of your analysis centered around "content and presentation"?"

    No, the fundamental part is that I do not believe Pandora, in current form, has near term sustainability, and I question whether or not it is capable of sustaining and competing long term. While I was not as detailed about the fundamental part as I could have been directly within the article, the fundamental part was covered by crosslinked articles I have written before. I wrote a three part in depth very detailed set of articles around the end of February as well, detailing why I felt Pandora was not viable. You are welcome to pull that from my history and read if you like.

    To be clear I am not upset with you, but I can't debate you like this... it will be a ton of time wasted with me repeatedly saying "no that's not what I said" or "no that's not what I meant, you missed X or Y."
    Apr 13 04:11 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment