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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Your model assumes share repurchases will be done at a share price which is nearly 400% above current share price in 8 years (2023).

    Wouldn't that assumption, then, mean that you assume someone purchasing SIRI at $3.70 today and holding would see nearly 400% appreciation in 8 years? Roughly 18.X% compounding per year?

    There are a massive number of moving parts here. But if you model that the share price will be nearly 400% higher from present levels in 8 years it sounds like an excellent investment to me.
    Jul 12, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Are you assuming the special dividends will be reinvested and held by all current owners through the entirety of the model?

    Does the special dividend reduce the share price by the amount of the dividend each time, or does the share price recover the loss? For instance if the SP is $3.70 and a 20 cent special div goes out does the SP go to $3.50 (and stay there) due to the increased debt or decrease in cash or does it go back up to $3.70 regardless?

    A share repurchase uses the money and retires an proportional number of shares adding debt, reducing share count, and thus effectively keeping the current share price the same.

    A special dividend disburses that money, lowers cash or increases debt and thus in effect makes the company worth less by the amount of the dividend. Since the share count remains static the company is worth pre-dividend value minus the dividend disbursed.

    Since SIRI is not issuing dividends and is unlikely to issue special dividends then share repurchases (which is what SIRI is doing) should be modeled.

    They're really not the same in effect on future share price. The immediate effect SHOULD result in the holder of equity seeing no increase or decrease in the value of their account at the point of event... but the are very different over time.

    Also taxes must be modeled into those special dividends. Share repurchases do not need to be modeled with taxes in mind.
    Jul 12, 2015. 12:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    I wouldn't use special dividends in your model since it is far more likely they will repurchase shares.

    Unfortunately this will, as you said, be negative to value in your model and reduce your valuation even further.

    I think you're missing a lot of long term interplay of numbers.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Your comment here shows a very important disconnect.

    Sirius XM is not a music only service.

    Judging by the article and your comments I think you're starting with an idea and trying to prove it, vs. gathering all available information and researching and then forming your idea (and if you did the latter I think you missed things which are rather important, most of which can't really be put into numbers in a chart).

    Also it is puzzling that you are long LMCA and / or LMCK yet see SIRI as risky from current levels or even something to be avoided / without much upside unless they add numbers of subscribers which can not possibly be obtained. LMCA / K is by vast majority made up of SIRI value, even more now than it was in recent history due to various spin outs.

    What do you expect outstanding share count to be each year going forward and what do you expect the average purchase price per share to be as the years progress? You increase debt per year but I don't see an assumed reduction in share count through this addition of debt... what do you see this debt being used for?

    Connected vehicle services. These seem to be ignored, and projecting out 8 years (difficult if not impossible really) should probably include some sort of opinion on how this portion of the company will play out. I may have missed this but don't think I did.
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM re-ups CFO Frear for three years [View news story]
    Such is life.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM re-ups CFO Frear for three years [View news story]
    It is likely he would disagree with your opinion of what he is worth. It's also likely that those who matter (those who make the decision as to how much he is offered) also disagree with your opinion of what he is worth.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM re-ups CFO Frear for three years [View news story]
    If you dislike this then why buy shares in the company? Frear has been there for years. It's best to sell and buy into a company in which you do like those at the top.
    Jul 8, 2015. 04:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Might Be Due For A Breakout [View article]
    Nothing has changed. I do post more often on the siriusbuzz.com forums if you want to look there.

    I just suggested buying 3.68. It could go lower, but eh, here looks good enough to me.
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Explaining The 1 Cent 'Miss' In Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Greg you recently asked me if I was concerned about auto sales possibly declining and I answered you there.

    The answer is no, again. Doesn't matter if it's some guy at Barclays who thinks maybe X will happen or Y will happen or your personal concern that auto sales may have peaked.

    Doesn't even make sense that a driverless car would reduce car sales anyways. So they are going to make them and not sell them? Sounds silly to me.

    Who the hell looks 20 years out in tech anyways? Anything like that doesn't happen overnight. One can reconsider each year. Not a big deal. Why worry about 20 years out NOW?
    Jul 2, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    If you're not sure then you will want to do research (if at all interested in the stock and going long or short.)

    I can assure you that what you believe here is not even close to being true... so I am not sure where you came up with this idea. Even the most simple glance at diluted totals from before the buyback and then to now will show significant reduction... a simple glance. Any investor in any company should understand how to read these numbers as they are fairly important, especially if you are investing in a company that has a significant portion of strategy in share repurchases.

    Just throwing things out there like "he" is holding it down and when "he is ready" "he" will let it go up and that "he" is riding the gravy train (how you ride some gravy train on a stagnant share price is beyond me....) is not productive conversation.

    Though I see such comments often from people (not just on SIRI). It's always "they" are holding it down. "They" are controlling the price. "They" will "let it go up" when "they" want....

    At some point people look beyond the "magical man in the sky" stuff and try to understand things on a more realistic / scientific level. Thank "God" too... or else we'd be dancing around praying to a little tiki man as people got polio and died instead of understanding that it isn't "he" or "they" almighty but rather something that has a more sensible explanation.

    Or maybe it IS "he" controlling the markets? God himself? After all, those who believe say nothing happens anywhere without God's will... from wars to murders to .... stock prices. SIRI dropping yesterday was because God wanted it to. Maybe God is making John Malone do it, and God wants everyone to lose money and wants John Malone to ride a gravy train, so to speak?

    I'm rambling but eh, there's a point in here somewhere.
    Jun 30, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    John Malone is the controlling holder and thus your sarcastic comment actually has some merit.
    Jun 26, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    Thank you Scott :) I may have one coming soon... just need to decide if this charge will hit in Q2 or 3 before I write.
    Jun 26, 2015. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    Yet you own the stock. Your last comment said you believe something "illegal" is going on.

    Yet you own the stock...
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    Also what makes you think that someone would pay nearly a nearly 50% premium to market price for SIRI? Especially if you believe it would be unable to get over $4 without an entity paying such a premium?

    "Current management behaves like caretakers for Malone of a museum with no new exhibits. Or maybe I should have said a cemetery."

    And yet, that is the management that runs the company. If you hold shares, and believe this, why do you continue to hold shares? As a share holder you are along for the ride and can get off at any time you like by selling your shares. Why "ride" if the ride is on a clear path and you are unhappy with it?
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM settles major-label suit over old songs [View news story]
    The company doesn't need to be sold. If it needed to be sold then Liberty would sell it.

    Or do you mean "I would like them to sell this, so I can get $5 to $6 per share quickly" ?
    Jun 26, 2015. 12:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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