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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Why You Should Buy Sirius XM [View article]
    He mentioned it. Therefore the article does not lose relevance.
    Feb 27, 2014. 10:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Persistent Short Squeeze For Sirius XM But Not For Pandora [View article]
    Jack...

    How do you know around 270 million of these positions are hedged vs. the notes? That would mean that end of October and mid November there were only around, say, 1 to 10 million actual shorts on SIRI, or like 0.016% to 0.16% short. That would be outstanding for any stock out there.

    I'm always surprised how some relative veteran commenters on SA wade into commenting about .... oh nevermind :P I may not agree with Leah's articles but good lord, if you're going to use the know it all tone make sure you know it all :) lol

    I've always said much of that position is hedged but there's no way to know the exact number. One can only make assumptions and I think to make assumptions that nearly the full amount of hedged vs. those notes is wrong.

    We'll find out in a year I guess.
    Dec 22, 2013. 12:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    If SIRI added commercials to the music stations I would do two things.

    1) Cancel my service.

    2) Immediately sell my investment in Sirius XM and move on.
    Dec 6, 2013. 08:36 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: After $4 Billion, Where's The Growth? [View article]
    Buyers need sellers. And sellers (in my opinion) are wonderful for longs like me at this level. SIRI is in the middle of establishing an average that will set pricing of purchases from LMCA (as CN discussed). Two days left to set that price... and it appears they will get the lowest end of the range and thus get near maximum bang for the buck on $500 million more in repurchases.

    I hate suggesting anyone sell here... because I'd be lying if I were to say I thought that would be a good idea... but anyone selling / shorting / etc. right now is doing SIRI and 98% of my position a favor long term.... (those Nov 16th short term $3.50 calls are crying though... ! ;)
    Nov 8, 2013. 12:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    Jack.

    Ask your friend CN?

    You have proven time and again you dislike my articles and opinions. Your questions here are a bait, and I'm not interested in taking it.

    I don't model for quarterly subscribers and have been quite clear about that since I started writing. I find that sort of micro analysis to be of little value.

    I'd suggest asking Spencer Osborne, who, in my opinion, does an excellent job on average in his estimations. You won't ask him, though... cuz you are not interested in the answer ;)
    Sep 29, 2013. 06:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIRI Faces 'Sirius' Resistance [View article]
    Eh, actually, forget it Ol Blue Eyes. Was poking through your comments for the article here. I doubt they will take it and honestly I don't want to use the spotlight to embarass you.

    From your comments on SIRI which can be found here : http://bit.ly/18LJMeo

    July 9th you said :

    "The best thing you can do with the report of an investment analyst is to toss it out with last night's leftover pizza. Theirs is the most overrated and under productive job in the country. They seldom do any original research; they come up with wildly different predictions based on the same facts; they are wrong at least half the time and are almost never called to account for their errors."

    Yet here you ask for my credentials. I'd argue that the best you will find in the way of "credentials" these analysts you talk about tossing out with last night's leftover pizza (I'd argue that pizza is great for breakfast but if you want to toss it, be my guest).

    You seem to make the assumption here that I am writing for a "pathetic few extra bucks." But if you rewind to March 12th 2012 you will find a comment by you directed at Rocco Pendola:

    "Rock isn't a bad guy. It's his audience that lets him get under their skin with his very competent writing. He's a great fan of The Boss and he knows how to work SA to maximize his income. Nothing wrong with that. Just a smart guy."

    Did you ask for his credentials when he was suggesting shorting SIRI at $1.27 the year prior?

    From the same day, March 12th 2012 :

    " A large amount of money would just end up being wasted on bad ideas. They can invest wisely and buy back too."

    Is a comment you made regarding suggestions that the company use the cash on hand to branch out into new ideas vs. buy back the stock. Now you beat your dead horse of a tabletop radio to no end in comments.

    And one of my favorites, from when I started writing:

    "I think that it is very unfair to those SA contributors who have been earning a nice piece of change from SA for their Sirius overcoverage to suddenly have to compete for the Sirius investor's attention with all these johnny-come-latelies. I guess it's hard to keep a good thing to yourself, but really, new regulars Faulkner, Nadeem Moulvi, VFC's Stock House. And you have Crunching Numbers and Little Apple recycling ancient news from the Cramer interview under big new headlines. Perhaps Sirius investors should try to remain loyal to the SA contributors who have been overcovering Sirius for the longest time, before everyone decided to horn in."

    Ripping on myself, Crunching numbers, and Little Apple, no? In the same breath you suggest people remain LOYAL to writers like Rocco Pendola and Cameron Kaine (Richard Saintvilus) who were suggesting selling and / or shorting Sirius XM at prices under $2 a share a little over a year ago. Over 100% gain since then.

    Here's the deal. My problem with your constant negative barrage is it has no real substance behind it, and your past comments are all over the map and in complete conflict with one another. You may not choose to listen to what I have to say because I am not interested in just throwing out a wall of worry to "look smart" and that is fine. There's another author on here who is always concerned with everything SIRI does and sees little to no positives in anything, and you should probably follow him.

    Don't follow me just to correct me, though. You will be wasting your time. All I need is your comment that people should follow the "intelligence" of Rocco Pendola (Short SIRI "under a buck" as he said... because he likes Bruce Springsteen, no less) in response.

    One final note, you mention the readers of SA as a choir:

    "where the choir is not very sophisticated"

    And I think you do not give people enough credit here. I'd argue that many of the people I speak with directly ARE very sophisticated and understand SIRI quite well. It's why you see a bit of hostility from them when people just run around screaming "sell sell sell." They understand 1+1 = 2 and don't need others telling them that in another dimension 1+1 might equal 3.
    Sep 21, 2013. 12:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 302 Million Liberty Shares Go 'Long Term' This Weekend [View article]
    What about the WHIG media! Sneaky buggers... nobody ever notices them!
    Jul 3, 2013. 08:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Does Not Need To Raise Prices [View article]
    I just do not see much value in making up news or stories when there is a lack of news or stories. I could come up with ideas all day about what I would do if I were the head of a bunch of companies but that really doesn't help people with their investments. I'd argue that such things serve to confuse more than clarify.

    Furthermore your article skips over various issues so you may prove your point, such as stating that Sirius XM should raise prices in part to offset higher royalties. But you understand that Sirius XM has a fee called a music royalty fee, or MRF, which is a floating number and recently went up in order to offset these royalties, so why would Sirius XM increase prices on top of increasing prices?

    I get it. SIRI is probably going to be pretty darn boring until the Q2 call other than share price movement and finding stuff to write about in the meantime may be difficult as the "story" has been told and will likely change very little if at all. If stuff is made up ... I'll probably write an article in disagreement and point out the errors / things which are simply made up.
    May 30, 2013. 01:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Awwww DRAT! ;)
    Jan 25, 2013. 08:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Serious About Sirius XM [View article]
    "Liberty Media owns close to 50% of all shares and has "capped" the share price at $2.15 by stating they will not pay more for the shares"

    Where did Liberty Media state this? If you can find it I will be very very very surprised. They are also paying $2.15 share price plus fees, which are estimated to be at $0.15 per share, making the total they are paying $2.30.

    "Mel Karmazin has been exercising his options for cash, not for shares"

    Incorrect. Mel has been exercising his options and converting them for shares at the strike price, paying for them, and then reselling those shares.

    "Karmazin has sold roughly half of his position, and the "dumping" could continue for another 3-6 months"

    Actually, his sales will continue as outlined in the plan disseminated in February of this year. You are also incorrect in stating he has sold half his position. He has sold a quarter of his position, has plans to convert and sell half total, and has no plans currently to sell the other 50%, or 60 million shares he has in options, or the roughly 10 million shares he holds personally. Mel is actually selling out less than half of his total shares, which begs the question, why would he keep over 50% of his stake, including his personally held shares which are not in options, if he lacks faith in the stock?

    "Traders are staying away because the RSI (relative strength index) has been terrible to trade within as has the very narrow range "

    Really? 5% swings aren't enough for traders? I think you're mistaken here. You're throwing out a term like "RSI" and saying that this is the reason traders have stayed away from the stock. What, then, has moved the price of SIRI up and down 5%, and what has caused the volume? How did this happen with no trades?

    "I have read all sorts of articles recently that have suggested various ways to make money by owning SIRI shares. Mostly it has to do with buying shares and selling covered calls. That does make some sense if you were bullish about the stock, but actually if you were bullish about the stock you would just buy and hold."

    You're completely wrong here. Selling covered calls is a strategy for those who are mildly bullish. What you are saying "the stock is stuck" is the PERFECT situation for one to buy a stock and sell covered calls! If I buy a stock today at $2 and have a bullish sentiment of 20% appreciation in a year, and sell a $2.50 covered call a year out for $0.15 per, and the stock appreciates to $2.40, I make MORE than if I had merely bought and held the stock. If you are interested in learning about options strategies there are many informative books out there, or even resources on the web. Covered calls are honestly the first option strategy one learns, and it's a bullish strategy. I do see you've said it makes sense if you are bullish on the stock, but then you contradict and conclude saying it doesn't make sense if you are bullish, as anyone bullish would buy and hold.

    "It is my opinion that the share price will continue its death march (either down or sideways) until Liberty Media finally takes complete control, or when Mel Karmazin finally leaves"

    But you suggest holding the stock if one owns it? Why would you suggest an individual hold a stock that will "continue its death march"?

    While I agree this is not the time to buy back in to SIRI for myself, and that SIRI is currently in a downtrend, your reasoning has a lot of holes or is quite simply misinformed in some cases.

    "That is the reason I have a lifetime subscription and always will, no matter who owns the company."

    Well of course you "always will." It's a lifetime subscription... if Pee Wee Herman takes over the company you'll still have a subscription.... lol :)
    Jun 26, 2012. 09:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Losing Lawsuit On Royalties, Sirius 'Not Happy' With The Turtles [View article]
    The payments will be small or nonexistant for back dated stuff, and will take years to go through. This will be a lot of time and money spent by both sides for a bunch of lawyers to make money and that's about it.
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Liberty Mutual? Really?

    Perhaps the 13th comment is unlucky but barely anything you said above makes any sense.

    Regarding EPS, read my article before this. Understand it. Once you do, come back.

    See you in a few years? :)
    Aug 13, 2014. 07:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why Sirius XM Should Be Avoided [View article]
    I need to start writing daily articles again... because it seems like SIRI gets daily doses of nonsense... again.


    Here, Mitu. Not that you will read them or comment here but these may help you as you begin to try and analyze companies. Specifically SIRI. They should explain why you are seeing some of the things you are seeing. I think your misunderstanding comes from a superficial "first glance" analysis and you would be better served by digging deeper to understand the "why" behind the numbers and their comparisons Q-Q and Y-Y.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 9, 2014. 11:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Q2 Profit Up 7.7% Year-Over-Year If You Look Closely [View article]
    That's a heck of a compliment JRF77 and I really appreciate it. Obviously my analysis doesn't pick apart the income side too (for instance the income attributed to the SIRI Canada special dividend) but for the purposes of example I felt it best not to complicate the situation too much. Eyes start to glaze over by the middle of this article for many already would be my assumption.

    I'm glad you suggested people should not try to value based on P/E. It's fine for a quick glance / stock screen type analysis but because it is so very basic in calculation it is open to a massive range of errors. It seems many novices start by using P/E because it's "easy" but I find people quickly graduate from using that metric in a meaningful way... Some don't, unfortunately.

    I'd say free cash flow per share is probably the best way to look at SIRI right now, especially considering what they are trying to do with share buybacks as that is what will drive the current objective forward. And I agree that there's a lower valuation on untaxed earnings as they will undoubtedly be subject to tax in the future. For SIRI, that's a relatively long ways out, though, much to the benefit of the current objective :)
    Aug 4, 2014. 12:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Right On Track For A Break Towards $4 Per Share [View article]
    Regarding "Do it Doug!".... http://bit.ly/1oHL5Ut

    Regarding : "I had it for years and no movement" I never understand when people say this. Years is plural, so two... and I can find no two or more year period in which SIRI did not move. Silly :)
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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