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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    There is nothing magic about any price.... it's not like $4 means anything specific other than what it means for market cap and what the stock is trading for at the time and what that does to ratios.

    There should be resistance there based on the chart but that has nothing to do with the company.

    It's below mid range fair value... that has something to do with the company.

    Always upside and downside. You need to determine what the company is worth and use that to guide long term buy / sell areas. Could pull back from $4... could break and go to $5... it's all within the range (my range). Your range may be different.

    What *is* your range and why?
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    So you would hold an equity which is at stretched valuations that you have made a large percentage on in order to float it for several months / through another couple earnings reports to attempt to save a few percent on CG tax?

    Let's assume he was at the max 20% LT and 39.6% ST CGR (we'll even go with 40% for simplicity sake). He bought at 3.15 if he has a 22% gain at 3.85 so at 4.13 (let's assume he would not have pulled a top) he had a gain of 31%.

    ST tax portion 12.4%
    LT tax portion 6.2 %

    Since decreases in gains decrease tax you have to use a somewhat complicated formula to figure at what price "waiting" costs you due to differences in tax but it's only about 10-12 cents.

    Thus a 3.X% move in the stock COMPLETELY eliminates the benefit of "waiting" for ST to convert to LT.

    You never, ever, ever let the switch from short term to long term tax rates drive your point of sale. It should NOT "always" be taken into account to the point it REQUIRES you to hold at any stock price.

    What if SIRI ramped to $6 in 2013 on an overblow? Should he have held out to avoid the difference in tax?

    Your comment, Bluejay7751, is patently stupid here as well because the discussion surrounds an example where holding due to "taxes" has caused the owner to hold for another 14 months and he is STILL worse off than if he had just sold near the highs like he should have and paid the higher ST CGR!

    Most investors should NOT let a significant short term gain sit and ride along if they have reached their sell point months before it approaches LT status. If he bought 3.15 and timed his buy properly he bought late June 2013. June to October gain like that? Reach your target?

    Well gosh... I dunno ;) I work in emergency power... maybe it's a good idea to instead hold for another 8 months and hope the share price stays where it is... !

    He's worse off 14 months later with that money locked up the entire time.

    It bears repeating :

    Never let taxes guide your decisions... I see them mentioned all the time. Those few percentage points can really F up your targets, opinions of value, and charts.

    SIRI's valuation is completely independent of ST / LT CG of the holder.

    "But I've got certain standards I hope to meet before cashing out of any stock"

    That is a recipe for DISASTER too... stock doesn't care about your standards. Let the company / stock dictate your standards... your standards have no effect on the stock.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    "They need to reduce share count, though or give something back to shareholders before too long."

    How does an investor in SIRI not know about the buyback program?????????
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    It's getting bought out at a good price... retail holders have been selling into this buyback near bottom end valuations to great extent. ;)

    I know that's not your question but it's part of the answer :P
    Feb 14, 2015. 09:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    You'll drive yourself crazy if you watch it every day like that. Much better to step back and look at the big picture. It isn't going to go up every day, and it will most likely find resistance at some point in the near future here.

    Nothing crazy about a single down day in 2 weeks before a long weekend. Nothing at all.
    Feb 14, 2015. 03:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    One sided anything is boring :) No offense taken!
    Feb 14, 2015. 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    In short because increasing FCF and decreasing share count should provide FCF / Share growth that exceeds the S+P average.

    Time will tell if that holds.
    Feb 14, 2015. 01:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Yeah but you like Folgers coffee =/ lol
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    lol it doesn't work that way. People should have expected profit taking after two weeks of gains like this.

    I think people can look forward to next week though I do think air is thin up here for a time until everything can digest this rapid move.

    I'll have another piece out by Tuesday revisiting retail percentage. Notice my post to JbGoose above and the link there shared some thoughts over at Spencer Osborne's site.
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Fair enough. What is your cover price and equivalent P/E, PEG and P/S? And are you short on Tuesday's opening price if it is $3.75 or above?

    What is it about $3.75 that makes $3.74 not attractive as a short?

    Good luck with your trade :)
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    You'll see I closed my Feb / Mar options Thursday (it's in disclosure here). Fully expected profit taking today based on a 2 week 40 cent run.

    See comment above to JbGoose... we'll see about next week. I think it has about 20 cents in it yet. We'll see.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    What price have you shorted at? These types of articles and comments have been around since 2009 but if you started shorting based on articles and picked the high of 2012 you are short / own puts from just shy of $3?

    Blowing off everything I write as "cheerleader articles" shows you probably haven't read them in depth.

    Good luck :)
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    You can use P/E, in which case SIRI would fail that 'screen' and you'd avoid it. It's a much more complicated play and there are a lot of things going on that can and will take a lot of time researching.

    The P/E metric is false for the time being because the NOL write was taken one time back in 2012 I think it was making one quarter show 50 cents or something of EPS. Now they pay taxes on paper but those E numbers are higher than they actually are.

    Consider also E is decreased by interest expense on the buyback and you have to gauge that effect vs. expectations of buyback efficacy and future potential increase in share price. Long term compounding issue that is NOT easy to nail down exactly but can be generalized with a few assumptions (that will need to continue to hold true).

    P/E is so very basic and really is a poor screen for any company BUT it does work fine for a first glance because you'll come across some good values in the market using it. Just keep in mind that nearly everyone uses this metric when they start in the market (assuming they decide to screen at all...) BECAUSE it is easy... that alone can make some low P/E stocks a trap...

    I don't like using P/E ... I just don't. It's too simple...
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Stop picking on CN. He has valid concerns and he's offered a good long term conservative strategy that should have worked VERY WELL over the years for many people. I know the guy can defend himself but man... you guys need to let up a bit eh?

    You don't have to AGREE with all his concerns (Obviously I don't!) but he isn't just throwing out the old "streaming will kill SIRI" that is old and tired. He researches well, and what is writes is valuable to read even if only for the fact that one can say afterwards "ok, I've considered this, and I disagree."

    CN and I are the only two that cover this stock anymore with any regularity, and the balance we offer each other is, in my opinion, important.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    What about tax made it impossible to sell? LT vs ST CG?

    Never let taxes guide your decisions... I see them mentioned all the time. Those few percentage points can really F up your targets, opinions of value, and charts.

    SIRI's valuation is completely independent of ST / LT CG of the holder.

    "But I've got certain standards I hope to meet before cashing out of any stock"

    That is a recipe for DISASTER too... stock doesn't care about your standards. Let the company / stock dictate your standards... your standards have no effect on the stock.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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