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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    Let LMCA/K catch up. It's at too much of a discount. If you want to buy SIRI here you have more upside in LMCA/K though that is narrowing.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    Competition comes when the driver can utilize this data stream for anything more than passive listening (IE: Driverless cars, which I guess removes the idea of the "driver" entirely).

    Decades away... regardless of how much talk is being made about it. (People have been talking about the flying car since my grandparents were kids, for example.)

    Anyways... can already get "wi-fi" in the car through the phone. Have been able to do this for nearly a decade.

    Facebook thing is designed to reach areas that have no internet access at all...

    I think you are too hung up on personal bias here. A great example above is where you do not take the time to research the Facebook issue above and simply throw it in your "threat to Sirius XM pile."

    Obviously you are not long or short the issue and don't seem to have interest in putting money on one side or the other (which is puzzling because you sound absolutely confident here that this is a sure thing...) but if you DO decide to do so I would suggest additional research and digging around to understand what drives people to sub to SIRI and what keeps them away and what the actual threat to those who do subscribe, is.

    It may also be a good idea to research and develop and understanding of how technology effectively "trickles" into the car dashboard based on new vehicle sales rate compared to existing used vehicles already on the road, and how many years that takes to permeate the used space. A good start is looking at SIRI's penetration rate in new vehicles vs. how each year adjusts the total installed base.

    Will SIRI eventually plateau? Perhaps, from a radio standpoint if everything stays the same. At some point churn out will counter new subs. But it won't be due to "Wi-Fi" until or unless the driverless car becomes a reality... unless one assumes the dash will be lit and active for anything other than passive activities for that driver that needs to focus on the road. With states adopting stricter laws surrounding mobile use (I live in NH, we just got the hands free law, thank God... hope they're strict with it...) and with in dash entertainment / DVD movies for example that do not work without the car in park / E-Brake on... it's not going to be easy for an app maker to get into that stack for the driver of a vehicle in motion beyond what can already be done on a cell phone.
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    I'm not finding what I saw the other day. It may have been pulled or it may not be what I was thinking it was (IE: Author speculation).

    It was on Forbes, though... but that doesn't mean anything, honestly.
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Needs Strong Subscriber Growth And Margin Expansion To Justify Its Current Price [View article]
    Told ya you'd get it soon :)


    Though I'm going to take the other side at this point and say you sold too soon here. This move isn't over. LMCA/K has 10% + in it yet... likely more.

    It has to move before SIRI breaks. Would have to go into a long explanation as of why but I did make some comments elsewhere to SIRI holders about this and that LMCA/K was the better play off the bottom as it had much more upside to it. Some guy wrote an article recently that explains it better... LMCA has been overly depressed vs. NAV.

    Doesn't mean *tomorrow* it goes up but I think August will do very well by investors.
    Jul 30, 2015. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    CN I read it somewhere... driving now will have to check when I get home.

    Grats to your son :)
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Media: Get $3 Billion Or More For Free [View article]
    This is a very good article that I fear will probably fall on deaf ears or most will not comprehend that do read it. (I'm limited on time and did not read it entirely in detail but it's on my bookmarks to return to!)

    The thing one has to remember is that LMCA has typically traded at a discount to NAV, so buying because of that would have one assuming that history will change, and honestly it is unlikely to do so.

    LMCA is best bought for (or historically has been best bought for) spins. Buy before the spin and ride it through and then ride up whatever is spun out as the value is "unlocked."

    Eventually it'll be done again.

    I will say that LMCA / K does have a longer way to climb here before SIRI can move up based on its most recent call. I mentioned some time ago that there is more upside in LMCA / K based on how it was trading (it seemed to suffer recently for absolutely no reason... ) especially with SIRI undervalued itself. LMCA / K's discount has been higher than normal for some time now.

    Good opportunity still. LMCA / K could appreciate 15 to 20% from here easily, especially if SIRI carries it up, and 40 to 50% over the course of 12 to 18 months (this is based on my projections if SIRI breaks the $4 per share area).

    That gives more upside in LMCA / K still, even with the last couple of days of movement.

    But again not many will understand this... LMCA / K just isn't on the radar of most (and I am sure that is fine with its holders most days).
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    I think you guys are being a bit hard on the author here. He's simply sold out and stated why (even if it may be misguided, time will tell).

    Worst he can do is miss out on potential gains. Not a big deal.

    SIRI needs more sellers. Investors in SIRI should be thrilled when any holder sells out (unless that investor needs to exit soon or for some reason needs to leverage their SIRI position for other reasons). The buyback program is a beast that needs constant food, and the more food out there the cheaper it is, and the less the beast needs to work to accomplish its goals.

    Will AT+T destroy SIRI? Will anything? Who knows. Sounds scary though... sell sell sell! :)
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:41 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    None of them are buying SIRI. There is little to no benefit for anyone to buy SIRI. SIRI would be a good acquirer... but SIRI is not an acquisition target.

    But that hasn't stopped people from making up stories that X, Y, and Z companies are looking at SIRI or might buy SIRI or whatever over the years.

    Wake me up when it happens. I'll buy you a share of SIRI.
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Sirius XM After Earnings For A Zero Gain [View article]
    Then you sold in October 2013?

    Because market cap and P/E were higher, then, and it went over $4.

    It was also over $4 this year now on 5 separate days.

    If you are still "waiting" then what made you HOLD at $4?
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    "Rocco lost? I think he won. In 2012 he said he was buying Pandora at 6 dollars and it went to over 30"

    Rocco sold out of P long before it hit 30 and he was a buy at / near the IPO. Did not wait until it hit the bottom. He admitted error several times and I've been hard on the guy in the past but there's something to be said for standing up and saying he was wrong on SIRI and wrong on P.
    Jul 29, 2015. 06:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wi-Fi In Autos, A Sirius Problem [View article]
    The author would do well to short the stock if this is their sentiment.

    "All I know, and I believe this to be 100% true"

    You can't know and believe. Either you know or believe (which indicates uncertainty) and you can't know because it's impossible to be 100% certain on the future.

    Thus "I believe." Too many people "know" their speculation with such certainty that they are devastated when it doesn't come to fruition.

    I am not really serious about suggesting you short the stock either... You would if you knew... but since you don't, you won't, and I think that you will be much better off for that going forward.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:37 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    Flo and Eddie is not outstanding. It's done.
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    "How much money will it take till Sirius has reasonable EPS? 5 billion? 10 billion?"

    Sell your shares immediately or go short then if you are not happy with their process and feel it will weigh on the share price.

    Or just complain.... I guess...
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM up 3.1% after record EBITDA, raising 2015 guidance on growth [View news story]
    They don't owe another 200 million on lawsuits. Some of that is paid.

    The did not issue several hundred million more options. They are simply authorized for us if needed (no different from the past).
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) James E. Meyer on Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Ugh. Diluted share count (weighted averaged for 3 month period) :

    July 2015 5.5 billion
    April 2015 5.64 billion
    Feb 2015 5.86 billion
    Oct 2014 5.97 billion
    Jul 2014 6.2 billion

    Reduction from July 2014 to July 2015 of approximately 700 million shares.

    You can look up the "sometime back before that."

    No idea what the heck you were looking at to come to the conclusion there were 5.5 billion static shares but whatever it was was the wrong thing.
    Jul 28, 2015. 06:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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