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Stephen Faulkner

 
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  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    Jack.

    Ask your friend CN?

    You have proven time and again you dislike my articles and opinions. Your questions here are a bait, and I'm not interested in taking it.

    I don't model for quarterly subscribers and have been quite clear about that since I started writing. I find that sort of micro analysis to be of little value.

    I'd suggest asking Spencer Osborne, who, in my opinion, does an excellent job on average in his estimations. You won't ask him, though... cuz you are not interested in the answer ;)
    Sep 29 06:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIRI Faces 'Sirius' Resistance [View article]
    Eh, actually, forget it Ol Blue Eyes. Was poking through your comments for the article here. I doubt they will take it and honestly I don't want to use the spotlight to embarass you.

    From your comments on SIRI which can be found here : http://bit.ly/18LJMeo

    July 9th you said :

    "The best thing you can do with the report of an investment analyst is to toss it out with last night's leftover pizza. Theirs is the most overrated and under productive job in the country. They seldom do any original research; they come up with wildly different predictions based on the same facts; they are wrong at least half the time and are almost never called to account for their errors."

    Yet here you ask for my credentials. I'd argue that the best you will find in the way of "credentials" these analysts you talk about tossing out with last night's leftover pizza (I'd argue that pizza is great for breakfast but if you want to toss it, be my guest).

    You seem to make the assumption here that I am writing for a "pathetic few extra bucks." But if you rewind to March 12th 2012 you will find a comment by you directed at Rocco Pendola:

    "Rock isn't a bad guy. It's his audience that lets him get under their skin with his very competent writing. He's a great fan of The Boss and he knows how to work SA to maximize his income. Nothing wrong with that. Just a smart guy."

    Did you ask for his credentials when he was suggesting shorting SIRI at $1.27 the year prior?

    From the same day, March 12th 2012 :

    " A large amount of money would just end up being wasted on bad ideas. They can invest wisely and buy back too."

    Is a comment you made regarding suggestions that the company use the cash on hand to branch out into new ideas vs. buy back the stock. Now you beat your dead horse of a tabletop radio to no end in comments.

    And one of my favorites, from when I started writing:

    "I think that it is very unfair to those SA contributors who have been earning a nice piece of change from SA for their Sirius overcoverage to suddenly have to compete for the Sirius investor's attention with all these johnny-come-latelies. I guess it's hard to keep a good thing to yourself, but really, new regulars Faulkner, Nadeem Moulvi, VFC's Stock House. And you have Crunching Numbers and Little Apple recycling ancient news from the Cramer interview under big new headlines. Perhaps Sirius investors should try to remain loyal to the SA contributors who have been overcovering Sirius for the longest time, before everyone decided to horn in."

    Ripping on myself, Crunching numbers, and Little Apple, no? In the same breath you suggest people remain LOYAL to writers like Rocco Pendola and Cameron Kaine (Richard Saintvilus) who were suggesting selling and / or shorting Sirius XM at prices under $2 a share a little over a year ago. Over 100% gain since then.

    Here's the deal. My problem with your constant negative barrage is it has no real substance behind it, and your past comments are all over the map and in complete conflict with one another. You may not choose to listen to what I have to say because I am not interested in just throwing out a wall of worry to "look smart" and that is fine. There's another author on here who is always concerned with everything SIRI does and sees little to no positives in anything, and you should probably follow him.

    Don't follow me just to correct me, though. You will be wasting your time. All I need is your comment that people should follow the "intelligence" of Rocco Pendola (Short SIRI "under a buck" as he said... because he likes Bruce Springsteen, no less) in response.

    One final note, you mention the readers of SA as a choir:

    "where the choir is not very sophisticated"

    And I think you do not give people enough credit here. I'd argue that many of the people I speak with directly ARE very sophisticated and understand SIRI quite well. It's why you see a bit of hostility from them when people just run around screaming "sell sell sell." They understand 1+1 = 2 and don't need others telling them that in another dimension 1+1 might equal 3.
    Sep 21 12:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: 302 Million Liberty Shares Go 'Long Term' This Weekend [View article]
    What about the WHIG media! Sneaky buggers... nobody ever notices them!
    Jul 3 08:27 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Does Not Need To Raise Prices [View article]
    I just do not see much value in making up news or stories when there is a lack of news or stories. I could come up with ideas all day about what I would do if I were the head of a bunch of companies but that really doesn't help people with their investments. I'd argue that such things serve to confuse more than clarify.

    Furthermore your article skips over various issues so you may prove your point, such as stating that Sirius XM should raise prices in part to offset higher royalties. But you understand that Sirius XM has a fee called a music royalty fee, or MRF, which is a floating number and recently went up in order to offset these royalties, so why would Sirius XM increase prices on top of increasing prices?

    I get it. SIRI is probably going to be pretty darn boring until the Q2 call other than share price movement and finding stuff to write about in the meantime may be difficult as the "story" has been told and will likely change very little if at all. If stuff is made up ... I'll probably write an article in disagreement and point out the errors / things which are simply made up.
    May 30 01:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    Awwww DRAT! ;)
    Jan 25 08:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Serious About Sirius XM [View article]
    "Liberty Media owns close to 50% of all shares and has "capped" the share price at $2.15 by stating they will not pay more for the shares"

    Where did Liberty Media state this? If you can find it I will be very very very surprised. They are also paying $2.15 share price plus fees, which are estimated to be at $0.15 per share, making the total they are paying $2.30.

    "Mel Karmazin has been exercising his options for cash, not for shares"

    Incorrect. Mel has been exercising his options and converting them for shares at the strike price, paying for them, and then reselling those shares.

    "Karmazin has sold roughly half of his position, and the "dumping" could continue for another 3-6 months"

    Actually, his sales will continue as outlined in the plan disseminated in February of this year. You are also incorrect in stating he has sold half his position. He has sold a quarter of his position, has plans to convert and sell half total, and has no plans currently to sell the other 50%, or 60 million shares he has in options, or the roughly 10 million shares he holds personally. Mel is actually selling out less than half of his total shares, which begs the question, why would he keep over 50% of his stake, including his personally held shares which are not in options, if he lacks faith in the stock?

    "Traders are staying away because the RSI (relative strength index) has been terrible to trade within as has the very narrow range "

    Really? 5% swings aren't enough for traders? I think you're mistaken here. You're throwing out a term like "RSI" and saying that this is the reason traders have stayed away from the stock. What, then, has moved the price of SIRI up and down 5%, and what has caused the volume? How did this happen with no trades?

    "I have read all sorts of articles recently that have suggested various ways to make money by owning SIRI shares. Mostly it has to do with buying shares and selling covered calls. That does make some sense if you were bullish about the stock, but actually if you were bullish about the stock you would just buy and hold."

    You're completely wrong here. Selling covered calls is a strategy for those who are mildly bullish. What you are saying "the stock is stuck" is the PERFECT situation for one to buy a stock and sell covered calls! If I buy a stock today at $2 and have a bullish sentiment of 20% appreciation in a year, and sell a $2.50 covered call a year out for $0.15 per, and the stock appreciates to $2.40, I make MORE than if I had merely bought and held the stock. If you are interested in learning about options strategies there are many informative books out there, or even resources on the web. Covered calls are honestly the first option strategy one learns, and it's a bullish strategy. I do see you've said it makes sense if you are bullish on the stock, but then you contradict and conclude saying it doesn't make sense if you are bullish, as anyone bullish would buy and hold.

    "It is my opinion that the share price will continue its death march (either down or sideways) until Liberty Media finally takes complete control, or when Mel Karmazin finally leaves"

    But you suggest holding the stock if one owns it? Why would you suggest an individual hold a stock that will "continue its death march"?

    While I agree this is not the time to buy back in to SIRI for myself, and that SIRI is currently in a downtrend, your reasoning has a lot of holes or is quite simply misinformed in some cases.

    "That is the reason I have a lifetime subscription and always will, no matter who owns the company."

    Well of course you "always will." It's a lifetime subscription... if Pee Wee Herman takes over the company you'll still have a subscription.... lol :)
    Jun 26 09:25 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why Sirius XM Should Be Avoided [View article]
    I need to start writing daily articles again... because it seems like SIRI gets daily doses of nonsense... again.


    Here, Mitu. Not that you will read them or comment here but these may help you as you begin to try and analyze companies. Specifically SIRI. They should explain why you are seeing some of the things you are seeing. I think your misunderstanding comes from a superficial "first glance" analysis and you would be better served by digging deeper to understand the "why" behind the numbers and their comparisons Q-Q and Y-Y.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 9 11:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Q2 Profit Up 7.7% Year-Over-Year If You Look Closely [View article]
    That's a heck of a compliment JRF77 and I really appreciate it. Obviously my analysis doesn't pick apart the income side too (for instance the income attributed to the SIRI Canada special dividend) but for the purposes of example I felt it best not to complicate the situation too much. Eyes start to glaze over by the middle of this article for many already would be my assumption.

    I'm glad you suggested people should not try to value based on P/E. It's fine for a quick glance / stock screen type analysis but because it is so very basic in calculation it is open to a massive range of errors. It seems many novices start by using P/E because it's "easy" but I find people quickly graduate from using that metric in a meaningful way... Some don't, unfortunately.

    I'd say free cash flow per share is probably the best way to look at SIRI right now, especially considering what they are trying to do with share buybacks as that is what will drive the current objective forward. And I agree that there's a lower valuation on untaxed earnings as they will undoubtedly be subject to tax in the future. For SIRI, that's a relatively long ways out, though, much to the benefit of the current objective :)
    Aug 4 12:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Right On Track For A Break Towards $4 Per Share [View article]
    Regarding "Do it Doug!".... http://bit.ly/1oHL5Ut

    Regarding : "I had it for years and no movement" I never understand when people say this. Years is plural, so two... and I can find no two or more year period in which SIRI did not move. Silly :)
    Jul 16 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Caught Between Apple, Google, Amazon And A Hard Place [View article]
    Exactly!
    Jun 30 06:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Caught Between Apple, Google, Amazon And A Hard Place [View article]
    "That's funny, wasn't it you, WSP, who wrote an article awhile back about how Apple SHOULD buy Sirius?"

    I need to stop drinking chocolate milk while reading these comments! Ends in disaster every time.

    To answer your question... yes he did. :)
    Jun 30 03:57 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: $4 Per Share Will Depend On Q2 Report [View article]
    You can laugh. It's ok :)
    Jun 27 01:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple And Amazon Take Down Sirius XM? [View article]
    "This is the type of stuff we have to tolerate with the legalization of marijuana! lol"

    Yes.
    Jun 24 03:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Explodes By 56% Over The Past 2 Weeks [View article]
    Uhhh.... ok?
    Jun 12 10:36 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Buyback Return Requires Long-Term Horizon [View article]
    Figure 15% a year or so (and I think that's relatively conservative). If you want to track the bottom track from $3 here and carry forward. If you want to track tops track about $4.50 here and carry forward.

    So $3.50 EOY (use end of Jan 2015) and $5, then $4 / $5.75 for 2016 Jan, etc.

    Obviously historical supports and resistances based on EV/ EBITDA ratios can change with company perception and effect with the buyback should start somewhat of a curve over several years. You'll want to measure the market sentiment as well, keep an eye on auto sales, churn, conversions, etc etc etc. Just understand SIRI health related to size and growth % ... and at the same time try to understand the market may misunderstand SIRI health related to size and growth %.

    If you want an exit you may wish to exit near last year's high (I expect it will reach there again this year) or if you want to chance it and wait for top end then you'll look for about $4.80 to $5 (leave some for the other guy). Certainly this is the buy area around $3, not the sell area. Only people I'd suggest sell here are those who are at wits end / unstable as I'd prefer they move on to something else anyways.

    I am not sure I would be in SIRI if I expected to be dead in 10 years. If I expected that, I'd probably be spending it all before Mr. Grim Reaper came to collect his dues. When that time comes I'll be happy if I have but a single penny left in my pocket, and I'll smile when I give it to him :)
    May 21 01:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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