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Stephen Faulkner  

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  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    This is what I am looking at for next week. Today was, in my opinion, profit taking as expected. Shame I did not properly judge top on my margin account yesterday on exit when it was at 3.86 /7 but close enough.

    Daily range is 10 cents exactly. Slope is 16 cents per week, exactly, or 3.2 cents per day.

    I would not be surprised to see it move again next week. Short week... will have to gauge sentiment going into it but could move another 20 cents from 3.83 which would magically hit my 4.03 target, a P+F 4.03 target, a reasonable pullback area based on historical chart, etc etc. I expected resistance near $4... but it could go beyond that a little bit...

    Just me thinking out loud.

    If someone were to be looking to write covered calls next week near $4 may offer the opportunity. I mentioned to CN some time back to wait for (I think) .38 to .40's before writing them though I think he's already written them out. $4 would put them just about at that area. Options premiums / targets can often point where a stock is going as well.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    It was $4.17 bid in 2013. Why not sell then if that was your um... 'certain standard'? Why would you... oh jeez forget it lol...
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Lies. You drink Folgers.
    Feb 13, 2015. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Get Ready For The $4 Crowd [View article]
    Perhaps it is French? Le tarde ? Do they capitalize nouns?
    Feb 13, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    When did you buy these? They've had some nice gains the past couple weeks eh? :)
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Mr Gorbachev... tear down this wall?
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    To be clear, this is a moving average so I can't give you an exact price. I would be surprised if it is hit "soon"... but anyone buying monthly should have already bought before the call and it will be a couple weeks before they would look to buy again.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Add to position at or below the 50 day moving average. Follow the "leave a few pennies for the other guy" mentality and pick up the shares just above it.

    This may mean sometimes waiting, and it may sometimes mean buying a few cents higher than you could have... but it is much better than chasing as it runs or buying near the highs. Re-read the article there is a chart there that shows the max buy price anyone should have bought at with this strategy.... and notice all the better buy points which would have averaged everything down over the past year.

    You can make it more complicated and scale, use leverage, etc... but for most a simple approach will probably work best.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    If you don't find any SIRI content interesting you'll carry this view point and that is fine :) It's not for everyone. I have the same argument about Netflix... I know people with it and I personally think it's a horrible and useless service that has nothing of interest to me. The movies they have are pathetic and don't watch much TV so I don't see the value in Netflix.

    SIRI... I do. Different strokes for different folks :)
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    It does, and you'll notice in my disclosures I recently exited my near term options (these were not held in my IRA). With expiration next week for the Feb 20 portion and soon enough for the March 20 portion I thought it prudent to pull those off the table. Sitting with an order for 80k shares at 3.81... we'll see if it fills today. We'll see if I am able to trade around a core like many do...

    Will be a long bias trade for sure, and I'll likely switch from shares back to options on any 50 day SMA retest.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    Good to see this opinion once in awhile vs. the usual comment of "streaming will destroy Sirius XM" :)
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: With $4 In Sight, Price Has Gone Parabolic [View article]
    I wouldn't mind them eating up a couple billion shares ;) But debt covenants wouldn't allow that amount of borrowing as far as I am aware. The revolver has a 5 limit if I remember correctly.
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Oh good :) lol

    Will be interesting to see what people think of the efficacy of the buyback if the share price hits $5.75 area by Jan 2016 eh? That will be quite the return, then.

    Buybacks are always a long term issue. Always. But it is a somewhat complicated concept to understand and requires looking at a whole slew of factors. Many people don't like them because they either overpay / ramp up the share price so a ton of insiders can dump into it or because they buy back a non-appreciating asset.

    SIRI is a different case. There are two important things going on here. LMCA is getting rid of the retail share holder... which is a severe nuisance at this point. You've seen the comments... people who don't understand why Pandora has a share price of $14 and SIRI is at $4 when SIRI makes more money... There are a lot of these people in SIRI... or were.

    Watch the retail percent. I'll write about it as soon as institutional numbers are out. The more interesting number will come in May and will show who purchased the break out here through the end of March. I would be willing to put money on it that there are a huge number of retail sellers in this area. I want to see that retail number at 5 to 7 percent.

    SIRI is also buying back shares at lower valuations on average. All it has to do is post 10% or so going forward and it will continue this linear appreciation in share price over the next 5 years+. Compounding effect. SIRI just has to do better than the cost of the debt.

    Also consider the debt cost is a tax write and a tax write preserves NOL usage even if SIRI appears to pay them on paper. Thus debt cost is actually lower than it appears relative to its effect on the buyback. Debt is good... and I would like to see SIRI raise another large amount of it here.

    Lot more little things play into this... I could blah blah blah about it for hours but I don't have the patience some do :)
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Thoughts Heading Into Earnings [View article]
    Moving more than I expected. As much as institutional holdings will be interesting on the 15th, a more interesting number may come on 5/15 when end of first quarter holdings are released.

    It's good to have fewer retail and no overhang by a massive hedge convert.
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Get Ready For The $4 Crowd [View article]
    Not sure why I am bothering to comment to this but you do realize in 2007 the companies were separate and thus comparisons to share price from one company (Sirius) to another company (Sirius XM)... both completely different companies, is patently stupid, right?

    "One would assume" is incorrect, unless that "one" is a fool and not indicative of the larger base who understand such things.

    Was "tarde" a typo?

    Also why is "Growth stock?" in parenthesis twice? Secret code? lol

    You've been commenting against SIRI since 2009 according to your comment history. Lots of posts about "slowing growth" over the past year and complaints about how much insiders make earlier on. Talk of streaming about to dominate.

    At one point I suggested you go short. Did you? Because I didn't actually mean that... it was tongue in cheek... need more shares for the buyback.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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