Sirius XM: If You're Not Bearish, You're Not Paying Attention [View article]
Cameron,
I am curious, as you state you covered at a profit in your article on February 6th :
"I sold this morning at $2.15 for a 46% gain from my cost basis of $1.47. I'm pretty content with this gain. I will have more opportunities to buy back in. I'm confident in that. Even if it goes back to $2.30 or even $2.44, nobody will bet their life that it will stay there. Sirius will have a great year, no doubt. But right now, this was the best decision for Cameron. "
Yet on October 18th of 2011, you posted a comment in which you state the following regarding your SIRI holdings :
"So far it appears that was a great trade and it will only prove better going forward. I was lucky to be able to pick up some shares at $1.35 to lower my average below $1.70. So at the moment I'm at my break even point. I continue to believe that it will be upwards from here "
Now, to be fair, "below $1.70" could mean $1.47, could mean $0.01!, but I would think that $1.47 would be closer to "below $1.50" and stated as such. Given that since October 18th the share price very seldom tread under $1.70, and if so only by a penny or two, how did you accomplish averaging down from below $1.70 to your stated cost basis of $1.47? I do not remember you stating you had shorted or sold your shares from October 18th until February 6th, but I certainly could have missed something.
I meant to ask this the other day but got caught up in a few things and it slipped my mind, so sorry for the late question.
Deeper Color On Sirius XM's Subscriber Picture [View article]
Another article about the 1.3 number? Really? We due for another tomorrow? Two? Three? Maybe we need an article trying to predict how many articles are going to come out about the 1.3 subscriber guidance...
From the transcript of the conference call :
"Our net subscriber addition guidance is tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1, 2012. Since the time of the Sirius and XM merger, we have been conservative in all of our subscriber growth forecast. I believe this is a prudent cost and we will continue that practice. We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses. "
I can't understand why so much time and energy is being focused on this 1.3 number when the reason for it was given in such a direct fashion right within the conference call itself. You guys write as if the 1.3 number is a mystery and you and Scooby Doo are gonna get to the bottom of it and rip off the mask and show the world "the truth."
"Our net subscriber addition guidance is tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1, 2012. Since the time of the Sirius and XM merger, we have been conservative in all of our subscriber growth forecast. I believe this is a prudent cost and we will continue that practice. We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses. "
4 Stocks To Buy In First Quarter Based On A Rebound In Consumer Confidence [View article]
I think we're in for a big year for Sirius. There's just too much going on to ignore... way too many positives loaded and ready to fire (things that have been repeated so many times and don't need to be reiterated) that I think will just build off each other one after another after another.
My take on the Lynx being released "late"... Rushing it for the holiday season would have faced stock shortages, and cost extensive amounts for marketing. It wasn't ready, and it wasn't time. I know Rocco is a big fan of saying the release of 2.0 borders on a non event but, with all due respect to his opinion, I don't think it was meant to be an event.
The event comes with America's Got Talent, cross marketing between AGT and the Howard Stern Show, and what I feel will be the real release and marketing push Satellite radio 2.0 as the year unfolds. Could be wrong... I, like everyone else, is full of opinion here, but I am confident enough in these opinions to keep a large part of my portfolio with Sirius today. I've put my money where my mouth is, and in a big way (for me), and will be keeping a close eye on SIRI and its competitors as the year unfolds.
Sirius XM: Why Lower Prices Benefit The Buyback [View article]
wilmncmikey :
Your comment history has been 100% bearish on SIRI since you began commenting back in 2010. Had SIRI investors listened to you calling them stupid, foolish, etc., and telling them to dump the stock and run because all hell was about to break loose, those investors would have missed out on gains that have been one of the best in the stock market over the last several years.
Past perfomance is no indicator of future results but... past displays of foolishness can be a valid mesure of an individuals present and future credibility.
Just something to keep in mind as you feverishly begin calling everyone stupid again ;)
Sirius XM: Absolutely Critical To Liberty Media [View article]
Saintssense ---
I get it though, some people like to chit chat back and forth. I just don't find a lot of value in it. Jack's a special case. I've little patience with him based on his attitude in the past. This 'crew' comes from that dukeufinstu character that used to post a bunch of drivel and speculation on the yahoo boards. From "The Duke's" original mission statement :
"We are a group of students engaged in a multi year project that monitors the XM and SIRI boards. The students come from backgrounds in finance, economics, computer sciences and mathematics.
There are a number of people that post under our user name. The group does not have its own email address nor are we permitted to interact with any poster except through the board.
We do post on both boards. We do not take sides on any issue. Our goal is to stimulate debate or ask questions that will enhance the debate. We do not want to become part of the debate."
Unfortunately the remnants of that experiment by the duke financial students linger on today. Who knows. Perhaps Jack was one of the group. Lots of questions, zero answers, and zero value. SIRI investors are not some "experiment" to toy with, and I don't appreciate this kind of nonsense within my articles. There are others who will be happy to entertain it.
Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Sell Your Shares [View article]
I remember the $5 article I wrote :) I still believe it. I still feel Pandora has a lot to prove, though the massive short position in that company is a lot of future buying power if those guys are pushed to cover... I'd almost say P is a good play for a short squeeze candidate, regardless of the true future of the company. One "1 penny" quarter and the stock might beat the tar out of those shorts.
SIRI institutional ownership went down because LMCA converted 40% of SIRI locked in preferred, to common, as well as LMCA taking possession of UBS's shares purchased for the forward contract (which was roughly 5%). If you remove UBS from the mix institutional investors have had net buying, not net selling. Don't be fooled by 29%... the number is 29% plus LMCA's 51 or so %. Count LMCA as institutional (arguably they are stronger hands than institutional as I dont see LMCA selling to market) and you have an 80% institutional position.
Now you have a $2 B buyback which can soak 10% of the current shares (roughly) but where do they come from? In my opinion the first $2B buyback comes from the non institutional shares, which could effectively HALVE the non institutional float.
That would place the shorts at 400 million against what would then be a roughly 670 million float... and that might get troubling for them, especially if a second buyback is announced. While many of the 400 million are likely hedged, it's possible that may are not.
I'll have an article for next week that should cover my feelings in depth on Malone's recent moves and how they relate to SIRI. Be sure to look for it, as I think it could spark some interesting discussion and I'll look forward to reader comments on that one especially :)
You guys caught me on a very chatty day today :P who knows what tomorrow will bring ;) lol but thanks very much for the comment :)
Sirius XM: 400 Million Shorts Still Playing With Fire [View article]
"Just some more shorts that weren't smart, apparently, based your limited view of how to make money?"
Had they been "not short" / "not hedged" and simply taken possession of the shares and then sold them, would they have made more money?
Yup!
Greater risk, sure, but the reward is greater as they would not have lost profits on the underlying shares.
'What should I say to you? Should I not say 'Hath a dog money? is it possible A cur can lend three thousand ducats?' Or Shall I bend low and in a bondman's key, With bated breath and whispering humbleness, Say this; 'Fair sir, you spit on me on Wednesday last; You spurn'd me such a day; another time You call'd me dog; and for these courtesies I'll lend you thus much moneys'?'
You can bring it into modern language on your own time.
Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]
I think it's the tone of the article. When I read what Frankie typed I don't really take away that they are saying Sirius XM may be a good choice in any sense of the word. It appears they gloss over Sirius XM and brush it aside, saying clearly :
"With the ability to stream Internet audio, which is often free, think twice before paying for a satellite-radio receiver and subscription, unless there's specific Sirius XM content you want and/or you live where data reception is spotty."
Think twice... unless. Put very differently than "Sirius XM may be a good choice." It's all in the delivery and presentation of things. Granted I have not read the article but will seek it out when I get home (Frankie do you have a link for online?)
The problem with P's use of data is that at 21 hours a month it should use about half the plan. Sure, it alone doesn't hit the limit, but it eats into the plan. If I have $20 in a pile and something costs me $11, I only have $9 left for other things before I need to add money to the pile. Yeah the pile is $20 per month use or lose, but if my "non Pandora" stuff costs me $12 in data out of that plan, it can be argued that now I must add another $10 gig of data to support my Pandora listening.
I expect data limits to increase and this become less of an issue as time goes on, but not anytime soon. Girlfriend hits the gym 5 days a week, 45 min to an hour, and can't use P that way because she can't really afford to have an extra data charge with the other stuff she does with her plan. Me, I tether while mobile for work, and my 2 gig comes in very close on a monthly basis. I don't really care about a $10 charge BUT if I use Pandora (and I have) it pushes me over quickly.
Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]
CN, Frear elaborated on this with his take on the data :
"So what I think that is, is I think it's a set of very technology forward people who want that kind of car, want that enabled vehicle and they are already consuming across multiple channels. We have surveyed our customers a significant component of our customers, stream and stream regularly just like they listened to AM and FM radio; we don't expect to get them exclusively, all right, but we do expect to deliver value so they believe we are worth paying for."
I mean, you can make your own assumptions I guess. Perhaps Frear is not being truthful here or *IS* being truthful in his opinion but doesn't understand the situation... ?
I try to take what people say with a grain of salt but I have little reason to doubt his opinion of the situation in this case. Girlfriend (there she is again!) has Ford Sync, and uses both Sirius and Pandora. Her car is connected in the way they are talking about here... bluetooth, she can run the apps and sync up, etc. It's just a Ford Fusion SEL, not really a high priced car. Wasn't even over $30k loaded.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
SIRI is unlikely to sell two "versions." When you've listened to the conference calls and read what company executives have said about future plans and expectations, what have you heard? You speak with authority so I assume you have listened to and read these things... and have done your research?
If you have not, you should. If you have, then why are you leaving out what the company has clearly stated?
They see transition to IP as an eventuality, have a plan in place, and are positioned advantageously for the transition as they are the only company which can provide a seamless hybrid system.
It is very hard to have discussion on this, usually, because the "IP will kill satellite radio in a few years" crowd tends to completely ignore the facts or has not fully researched the situation.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
I dunno I'm really not... maybe I am unique but I don't think so. I followed a bunch of people when I joined Twitter for expansion here... but man, I had to cut almost everyone out. Too much nonsense.
I need less suggestions in a day, not more. Might be an age thing. I'm 35. But my girlfriend is 25 and I'm noticing she's distancing from the "social" networks and such more and more as time goes on. Too much BS :P
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
Randy what you see as "new" was beaten to death over the years here. So much so that if I include "Pandora" or any hint of "internet radio" in my articles they fetch anwhere from one half to one quarter of the views.
You'll get the vehement posters here as it's a slow day, and these articles kinda halted for awhile. One of the few reasons I started writing was because I was so sick and tired of the same re-hash of the same article.
Now Richard (who used to write here as Cameron Kaine) has done a complete about face on this and is now bullish on SIRI and bearish on Pandora, but for nearly a year this was the normal article that would come out EVERY SINGLE DAY from the team of Richard, Rocco Pendola, and a few other various authors who would swoop in to bat the SIRI cage once in awhile for the daily clicks. SIRI investors are stupid, emotional, braindead. Heck Rocco Pendola even penned an article where he was "convinced most SIRI longs hate themselves."
Is there an intelligent discussion to be had here? Perhaps. But it requires the author to approach it in a delicate manner and THEN to understand the background and be prepared for the backlash he or she will get.
Daniel has simply dug up the corpse of the horse that was beaten to death and then beaten into the ground (and beaten by gnomes as it rotted away) and is attempting to beat it again.
I mean, time will tell. I give Daniel credit for putting his money where his mouth is but really? 30 contracts of puts at 6 cents? I'm not so sure I'd call that a position, even with a minimum sized account. Heck the fees on the front and back end shave 10% off the top of that $180 position as is... =/
Might there be a day that going short SIRI is a wise idea? Perhaps. But it's not TODAY... The opening sentence of this article makes the rest seem foolish when the author is shorting on a 5 year time horizon...
Sirius XM: If You're Not Bearish, You're Not Paying Attention [View article]
I am curious, as you state you covered at a profit in your article on February 6th :
"I sold this morning at $2.15 for a 46% gain from my cost basis of $1.47. I'm pretty content with this gain. I will have more opportunities to buy back in. I'm confident in that. Even if it goes back to $2.30 or even $2.44, nobody will bet their life that it will stay there. Sirius will have a great year, no doubt. But right now, this was the best decision for Cameron. "
Yet on October 18th of 2011, you posted a comment in which you state the following regarding your SIRI holdings :
"So far it appears that was a great trade and it will only prove better going forward. I was lucky to be able to pick up some shares at $1.35 to lower my average below $1.70. So at the moment I'm at my break even point. I continue to believe that it will be upwards from here
"
Now, to be fair, "below $1.70" could mean $1.47, could mean $0.01!, but I would think that $1.47 would be closer to "below $1.50" and stated as such. Given that since October 18th the share price very seldom tread under $1.70, and if so only by a penny or two, how did you accomplish averaging down from below $1.70 to your stated cost basis of $1.47? I do not remember you stating you had shorted or sold your shares from October 18th until February 6th, but I certainly could have missed something.
I meant to ask this the other day but got caught up in a few things and it slipped my mind, so sorry for the late question.
Deeper Color On Sirius XM's Subscriber Picture [View article]
From the transcript of the conference call :
"Our net subscriber addition guidance is tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1, 2012. Since the time of the Sirius and XM merger, we have been conservative in all of our subscriber growth forecast. I believe this is a prudent cost and we will continue that practice. We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses.
"
I can't understand why so much time and energy is being focused on this 1.3 number when the reason for it was given in such a direct fashion right within the conference call itself. You guys write as if the 1.3 number is a mystery and you and Scooby Doo are gonna get to the bottom of it and rip off the mask and show the world "the truth."
"Our net subscriber addition guidance is tempered by our sense of conservatism around the price increase we implemented January 1, 2012. Since the time of the Sirius and XM merger, we have been conservative in all of our subscriber growth forecast. I believe this is a prudent cost and we will continue that practice. We will update our guidance, if appropriate, as the year progresses.
"
Again, there's the truth.
4 Stocks To Buy In First Quarter Based On A Rebound In Consumer Confidence [View article]
My take on the Lynx being released "late"... Rushing it for the holiday season would have faced stock shortages, and cost extensive amounts for marketing. It wasn't ready, and it wasn't time. I know Rocco is a big fan of saying the release of 2.0 borders on a non event but, with all due respect to his opinion, I don't think it was meant to be an event.
The event comes with America's Got Talent, cross marketing between AGT and the Howard Stern Show, and what I feel will be the real release and marketing push Satellite radio 2.0 as the year unfolds. Could be wrong... I, like everyone else, is full of opinion here, but I am confident enough in these opinions to keep a large part of my portfolio with Sirius today. I've put my money where my mouth is, and in a big way (for me), and will be keeping a close eye on SIRI and its competitors as the year unfolds.
Sirius XM: Why Lower Prices Benefit The Buyback [View article]
Your comment history has been 100% bearish on SIRI since you began commenting back in 2010. Had SIRI investors listened to you calling them stupid, foolish, etc., and telling them to dump the stock and run because all hell was about to break loose, those investors would have missed out on gains that have been one of the best in the stock market over the last several years.
Past perfomance is no indicator of future results but... past displays of foolishness can be a valid mesure of an individuals present and future credibility.
Just something to keep in mind as you feverishly begin calling everyone stupid again ;)
My Chat With A Hedge Fund Manager On Why I Own Sirius [View article]
Sirius XM: Absolutely Critical To Liberty Media [View article]
I get it though, some people like to chit chat back and forth. I just don't find a lot of value in it. Jack's a special case. I've little patience with him based on his attitude in the past. This 'crew' comes from that dukeufinstu character that used to post a bunch of drivel and speculation on the yahoo boards. From "The Duke's" original mission statement :
"We are a group of students engaged in a multi year project that monitors the XM and SIRI boards. The students come from backgrounds in finance, economics, computer sciences and mathematics.
There are a number of people that post under our user name.
The group does not have its own email address nor are we permitted to interact with any poster except through the board.
We do post on both boards. We do not take sides on any issue. Our goal is to stimulate debate or ask questions that will enhance the debate. We do not want to become part of the debate."
Unfortunately the remnants of that experiment by the duke financial students linger on today. Who knows. Perhaps Jack was one of the group. Lots of questions, zero answers, and zero value. SIRI investors are not some "experiment" to toy with, and I don't appreciate this kind of nonsense within my articles. There are others who will be happy to entertain it.
Sirius XM: Why I Want You To Sell Your Shares [View article]
SIRI institutional ownership went down because LMCA converted 40% of SIRI locked in preferred, to common, as well as LMCA taking possession of UBS's shares purchased for the forward contract (which was roughly 5%). If you remove UBS from the mix institutional investors have had net buying, not net selling. Don't be fooled by 29%... the number is 29% plus LMCA's 51 or so %. Count LMCA as institutional (arguably they are stronger hands than institutional as I dont see LMCA selling to market) and you have an 80% institutional position.
Now you have a $2 B buyback which can soak 10% of the current shares (roughly) but where do they come from? In my opinion the first $2B buyback comes from the non institutional shares, which could effectively HALVE the non institutional float.
That would place the shorts at 400 million against what would then be a roughly 670 million float... and that might get troubling for them, especially if a second buyback is announced. While many of the 400 million are likely hedged, it's possible that may are not.
I'll have an article for next week that should cover my feelings in depth on Malone's recent moves and how they relate to SIRI. Be sure to look for it, as I think it could spark some interesting discussion and I'll look forward to reader comments on that one especially :)
You guys caught me on a very chatty day today :P who knows what tomorrow will bring ;) lol but thanks very much for the comment :)
Sirius XM: 400 Million Shorts Still Playing With Fire [View article]
Had they been "not short" / "not hedged" and simply taken possession of the shares and then sold them, would they have made more money?
Yup!
Greater risk, sure, but the reward is greater as they would not have lost profits on the underlying shares.
'What should I say to you? Should I not say
'Hath a dog money? is it possible
A cur can lend three thousand ducats?' Or
Shall I bend low and in a bondman's key,
With bated breath and whispering humbleness, Say this;
'Fair sir, you spit on me on Wednesday last;
You spurn'd me such a day; another time
You call'd me dog; and for these courtesies
I'll lend you thus much moneys'?'
You can bring it into modern language on your own time.
Anymore questions, Jack?
Sirius XM's $1.325 Billion Short Position Must Be Repaid [View article]
Sirius XM has not previously done a buyback. Feel free to joke around Nino but don't try to spread misinformation.
Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]
"With the ability to stream Internet audio, which is often free, think twice before paying for a satellite-radio receiver and subscription, unless there's specific Sirius XM content you want and/or you live where data reception is spotty."
Think twice... unless. Put very differently than "Sirius XM may be a good choice." It's all in the delivery and presentation of things. Granted I have not read the article but will seek it out when I get home (Frankie do you have a link for online?)
The problem with P's use of data is that at 21 hours a month it should use about half the plan. Sure, it alone doesn't hit the limit, but it eats into the plan. If I have $20 in a pile and something costs me $11, I only have $9 left for other things before I need to add money to the pile. Yeah the pile is $20 per month use or lose, but if my "non Pandora" stuff costs me $12 in data out of that plan, it can be argued that now I must add another $10 gig of data to support my Pandora listening.
I expect data limits to increase and this become less of an issue as time goes on, but not anytime soon. Girlfriend hits the gym 5 days a week, 45 min to an hour, and can't use P that way because she can't really afford to have an extra data charge with the other stuff she does with her plan. Me, I tether while mobile for work, and my 2 gig comes in very close on a monthly basis. I don't really care about a $10 charge BUT if I use Pandora (and I have) it pushes me over quickly.
Sirius XM: Take Rates In Connected Cars 'Higher' [View article]
"So what I think that is, is I think it's a set of very technology forward people who want that kind of car, want that enabled vehicle and they are already consuming across multiple channels. We have surveyed our customers a significant component of our customers, stream and stream regularly just like they listened to AM and FM radio; we don't expect to get them exclusively, all right, but we do expect to deliver value so they believe we are worth paying for."
I mean, you can make your own assumptions I guess. Perhaps Frear is not being truthful here or *IS* being truthful in his opinion but doesn't understand the situation... ?
I try to take what people say with a grain of salt but I have little reason to doubt his opinion of the situation in this case. Girlfriend (there she is again!) has Ford Sync, and uses both Sirius and Pandora. Her car is connected in the way they are talking about here... bluetooth, she can run the apps and sync up, etc. It's just a Ford Fusion SEL, not really a high priced car. Wasn't even over $30k loaded.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
If you have not, you should. If you have, then why are you leaving out what the company has clearly stated?
They see transition to IP as an eventuality, have a plan in place, and are positioned advantageously for the transition as they are the only company which can provide a seamless hybrid system.
It is very hard to have discussion on this, usually, because the "IP will kill satellite radio in a few years" crowd tends to completely ignore the facts or has not fully researched the situation.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
None.
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
I need less suggestions in a day, not more. Might be an age thing. I'm 35. But my girlfriend is 25 and I'm noticing she's distancing from the "social" networks and such more and more as time goes on. Too much BS :P
Sirius XM In Serious Trouble As Mobile Revolution Gives Rise To Social Radio [View article]
You'll get the vehement posters here as it's a slow day, and these articles kinda halted for awhile. One of the few reasons I started writing was because I was so sick and tired of the same re-hash of the same article.
Here :
http://bit.ly/YRKYKx
Now Richard (who used to write here as Cameron Kaine) has done a complete about face on this and is now bullish on SIRI and bearish on Pandora, but for nearly a year this was the normal article that would come out EVERY SINGLE DAY from the team of Richard, Rocco Pendola, and a few other various authors who would swoop in to bat the SIRI cage once in awhile for the daily clicks. SIRI investors are stupid, emotional, braindead. Heck Rocco Pendola even penned an article where he was "convinced most SIRI longs hate themselves."
Is there an intelligent discussion to be had here? Perhaps. But it requires the author to approach it in a delicate manner and THEN to understand the background and be prepared for the backlash he or she will get.
Daniel has simply dug up the corpse of the horse that was beaten to death and then beaten into the ground (and beaten by gnomes as it rotted away) and is attempting to beat it again.
I mean, time will tell. I give Daniel credit for putting his money where his mouth is but really? 30 contracts of puts at 6 cents? I'm not so sure I'd call that a position, even with a minimum sized account. Heck the fees on the front and back end shave 10% off the top of that $180 position as is... =/
Might there be a day that going short SIRI is a wise idea? Perhaps. But it's not TODAY... The opening sentence of this article makes the rest seem foolish when the author is shorting on a 5 year time horizon...