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Stephen Faulkner

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  • Sirius XM: Thoughts On Manipulation [View article]
    Such as fine articles by The Shock Exchange! ;) Oh my goodness...

    Nothing else has grabbed my interest at the moment, though if Oil drops to about $35 I'm in :)
    Nov 28, 2014. 05:03 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Losing Lawsuit On Royalties, Sirius 'Not Happy' With The Turtles [View article]
    The payments will be small or nonexistant for back dated stuff, and will take years to go through. This will be a lot of time and money spent by both sides for a bunch of lawyers to make money and that's about it.
    Oct 20, 2014. 03:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM, Liberty Media And Pie [View article]
    Liberty Mutual? Really?

    Perhaps the 13th comment is unlucky but barely anything you said above makes any sense.

    Regarding EPS, read my article before this. Understand it. Once you do, come back.

    See you in a few years? :)
    Aug 13, 2014. 07:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why Sirius XM Should Be Avoided [View article]
    I need to start writing daily articles again... because it seems like SIRI gets daily doses of nonsense... again.

    Here, Mitu. Not that you will read them or comment here but these may help you as you begin to try and analyze companies. Specifically SIRI. They should explain why you are seeing some of the things you are seeing. I think your misunderstanding comes from a superficial "first glance" analysis and you would be better served by digging deeper to understand the "why" behind the numbers and their comparisons Q-Q and Y-Y.
    Aug 9, 2014. 11:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Q2 Profit Up 7.7% Year-Over-Year If You Look Closely [View article]
    That's a heck of a compliment JRF77 and I really appreciate it. Obviously my analysis doesn't pick apart the income side too (for instance the income attributed to the SIRI Canada special dividend) but for the purposes of example I felt it best not to complicate the situation too much. Eyes start to glaze over by the middle of this article for many already would be my assumption.

    I'm glad you suggested people should not try to value based on P/E. It's fine for a quick glance / stock screen type analysis but because it is so very basic in calculation it is open to a massive range of errors. It seems many novices start by using P/E because it's "easy" but I find people quickly graduate from using that metric in a meaningful way... Some don't, unfortunately.

    I'd say free cash flow per share is probably the best way to look at SIRI right now, especially considering what they are trying to do with share buybacks as that is what will drive the current objective forward. And I agree that there's a lower valuation on untaxed earnings as they will undoubtedly be subject to tax in the future. For SIRI, that's a relatively long ways out, though, much to the benefit of the current objective :)
    Aug 4, 2014. 12:22 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Right On Track For A Break Towards $4 Per Share [View article]
    Regarding "Do it Doug!"....

    Regarding : "I had it for years and no movement" I never understand when people say this. Years is plural, so two... and I can find no two or more year period in which SIRI did not move. Silly :)
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Caught Between Apple, Google, Amazon And A Hard Place [View article]
    Jun 30, 2014. 06:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Caught Between Apple, Google, Amazon And A Hard Place [View article]
    "That's funny, wasn't it you, WSP, who wrote an article awhile back about how Apple SHOULD buy Sirius?"

    I need to stop drinking chocolate milk while reading these comments! Ends in disaster every time.

    To answer your question... yes he did. :)
    Jun 30, 2014. 03:57 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: $4 Per Share Will Depend On Q2 Report [View article]
    You can laugh. It's ok :)
    Jun 27, 2014. 01:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple And Amazon Take Down Sirius XM? [View article]
    "This is the type of stuff we have to tolerate with the legalization of marijuana! lol"

    Jun 24, 2014. 03:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Short Interest Explodes By 56% Over The Past 2 Weeks [View article]
    Uhhh.... ok?
    Jun 12, 2014. 10:36 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Buyback Return Requires Long-Term Horizon [View article]
    Figure 15% a year or so (and I think that's relatively conservative). If you want to track the bottom track from $3 here and carry forward. If you want to track tops track about $4.50 here and carry forward.

    So $3.50 EOY (use end of Jan 2015) and $5, then $4 / $5.75 for 2016 Jan, etc.

    Obviously historical supports and resistances based on EV/ EBITDA ratios can change with company perception and effect with the buyback should start somewhat of a curve over several years. You'll want to measure the market sentiment as well, keep an eye on auto sales, churn, conversions, etc etc etc. Just understand SIRI health related to size and growth % ... and at the same time try to understand the market may misunderstand SIRI health related to size and growth %.

    If you want an exit you may wish to exit near last year's high (I expect it will reach there again this year) or if you want to chance it and wait for top end then you'll look for about $4.80 to $5 (leave some for the other guy). Certainly this is the buy area around $3, not the sell area. Only people I'd suggest sell here are those who are at wits end / unstable as I'd prefer they move on to something else anyways.

    I am not sure I would be in SIRI if I expected to be dead in 10 years. If I expected that, I'd probably be spending it all before Mr. Grim Reaper came to collect his dues. When that time comes I'll be happy if I have but a single penny left in my pocket, and I'll smile when I give it to him :)
    May 21, 2014. 01:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Reverse Split Request Denied [View article]
    I do not think you read the article.
    May 6, 2014. 10:12 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Important Points In The Q1 Report You May Have Missed [View article]
    Amp, you emailed me long ago stating you had to trade, were out of work and on unemployment, wanted to work the stock and make extra money, etc etc.

    You'll remember back then I told you I couldn't offer you advice on that. Since then I have suggested you sell your entire position multiple times.

    Instead of selling your position, you hold, and if it drags or goes down you post the same or similar things to the above. "Wish I had sold" "Stock is dead" etc. etc.

    Do yourself a huge favor. Sell your SIRI shares and get out and if you are depressed then please seek professional help. You are the poster child for the wannabe trader.

    Traders, longs, shorts, they can all make money and will all have different perspectives and timeframes. Don't look to the long term buy on the dips guy (me) for trading or short advice. I feel like I have to keep saying this to you.

    Wise up.
    Apr 29, 2014. 10:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It The Right Time To Buy Sirius XM? [View article]
    Unfortunately I can't press your "like" button for how many times I would have liked to press the "dislike" button on those spewing trader talk saying longs haven't made any money in the past few years, it was a mistake to be long, easy to make money elsewhere, blah blah blah :P
    Apr 18, 2014. 05:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment