Pandora Radio: Stuck In The Mud Until 2015's Catalyst [View article]
It is very likely. In my opinion P's base is younger, and may be comprised of a good portion of individuals who enjoy the "free" nature of the service. If P charged a subscription similar to Spotify, Sirius XM, etc., then users may either choose a more flexible IP delivered service like Spotify provides, or a service which provides a much greater variety in content and delivery such as Sirius XM provides.
Obviously I can't say for sure if they did X then Y will leave, but I can say for sure that if Pandora charged for the material which they currently give away for free then they would not have the issue of paying a high percent of income in royalties. There is no getting around the basic fact that if you pay for something, and then give it away for free, you will lose money. This does not make the situation "unfair" as Pandora claims, as other services such as Sirius XM require users to pay, and institutes a music royalty fee to cover the costs.
Pandora "charging" for the service would, in my opinion, knock users down to less than 10 million, but it would massively reduce their content costs in the process and make them extremely profitable. There is little overhead cost to Pandora other than royalties, and the CRB has provided them with a very simple, and LOW, rate to work with so that Pandora, if it charged for what it gives away for free, would make a considerable amount of money. Enough to justify a $14 per share price so that insiders can cash in? Probably not... ;) (and I insert a big WINK here because I think that point is very important when you consider what insiders are doing with their holdings.)
Pandora has continued to fail to deliver on its promises of securing enough advertising to offset costs. I see two reasons for this... they are walking a fine line here so there is ammunition they can use with the CRB to get lower rates locked in for 5, 10 years? after which they will flesh out advertising properly... OR the advertising based model and giving the music away for free is just not working. Either presents a problem for investors, because the stock enjoys a VERY hefty valuation based upon expectations that the CRB will lower rates or that Pandora will be able to monetize so many users...
If Pandora cuts the user base by charging everyone and slams current growth, (which only free can provide), the stock will suffer regardless of profitability because grand ideas of 100 million users and "maybe...." gets removed. If Pandora continues with the advertising model and is not successful with the CRB (and I doubt they will be) the stock will suffer, albeit more slowly, as people slowly catch on that hey... this just isn't working.
My opinion? CRB isn't gonna change tune. Joe is leaving. His millions of shares will be sold into the market as will other insiders who have been slowly divesting themselves of their holdings (it's a sea of red...) and P will continue to bounce up and down until reality sinks in and retail is left holding the bag wondering what in the world just happened?
Maybe I'm wrong. I don't have a position here either way and I am not hoping for P to succeed or fail. But it's something I follow and have some opinions on. I think investors would do well to avoid the stock and enjoy the service P provides until P proves that it can handle its business.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Yeah but you're talking about blogging sites. Remember sites such as Motley Fool have "quotas" (as far as I understand) where writers are paid commission on a fixed number of articles in a certain timeframe.
If you need an article, you form an opinion and fire it off... doesn't have to make sense, as long as it's readable :P
It's not manipulation :) It's just people trying to make a buck :P
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
I wouldn't look for higher pricing based on mad ramblings of a CEO move :)
It's not manipulation here, and I don't think it does any good to fall into the "manipulation" line of thinking on a stock. Pull out a chart, go back a year, check the 50 day moving average line. Use that as support. It goes up about a half cent a day. SIRI can and will bounce off this and run ahead of itself.
Now if that bounce is not justified and has little to nothing behind it it will retrace quickly. SIRI is not doing this... bounces, stays aloft, volume dwindles, it drifts down, and that 50 day line catches it and pops it up again.
Healthy activity, healthy stock, and this is what you want to see as a long term holder. If you're just a trader then this type of behavior can be maddening, because you don't get the volatility on a day to day basis to trade it.
Share price has appreciated considerably in the past 8 months, beating out most of the market. I mean... where do you think the stock should be today? $3.50? $4? How much "better" is it than back last year around $2 per share? 75%? 100%? In 8 months?
Stock is up 60% since $2, in months. If that's manipulation it's manipulation UP ;)
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
It's interesting you mention the lobbying. To be honest with you I wonder if Kennedy truly believes that IP radio is trated unfairly on this matter. On a per user basis SIRI pays FAR more in royalties than IP delivered music.
Kennedy must understand the reason P pays a higher percentage is simply due to the fact that they do not charge a subscription... P's contribution as a percentage of revenue would come in FAR below Sirius XM's if P charged even $10 per month.
Perhaps Kennedy sees the smoke and mirrors lobbying going nowhere.... I'd be very surprised if the lobbying was successful. I mean honestly... how do you spin it to convince?
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Oh I wouldn't see Kennedy as CEO either, but leading innovation on the IP side of things? Perhaps. Question is would he be comfortable in that position and is SIRI even looking for someone to take the helm on that "part" of Sirius XM.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
I don't see a merger in the cards. IP has no moat and can be developed in house at a fraction of the cost and I believe SIRI when they state there is nothing attractive out there to buy at the moment.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
P won't have 20M active accounts at $3 a month. There's a HUGE disconnect from "free" to "pay" even if paying is only $0.01 per month. It's another step, and one which people have to think about taking.
Also keep in mind that for P, they are only able to skirt around the loss / profit line in the sand because they have sweetheart royalty rates on IP delivery. Those rates should really be higher, and likely will become so in the future, pushing required sub costs up... it's unlikely $3 a month will cut it as time goes on.
If Kennedy is an innovator then he's probably just what SIRI needs on the IP side of things, especially with his proven track record at P in creating an easy to use and popular music application. I don't see Kennedy as CEO of SIRI as I said, but I could see him (pending his willingness to do so) being brought on to head up "part" of SIRI and their future expansion into IP.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
"Why would Malone want someone that left his company without completing his mission?"
You don't know if he was pulled away though. Kennedy may also realize P is on a mission of failure with no way of turning it around in the near term.
I find it interesting that Kennedy still has 100% his P options supposedly. Wonder what happens to those? He's pretty much the only insider at P who hasn't been bleeding out his shares since IPO. The current pop in price could present an attractive exit point for him.
Not sure how the auto sector would respond but I don't think it's a huge issue. P incorporation is app based, and thus doesn't require special hardware or whatever. I don't think the auto sector's opinion really matters in that it costs them little to nothing to add to an "app" enabled car dashboard, just like it costs Samsung nothing for P to be on your Galaxy S3.
Pandora Radio: Stuck In The Mud Until 2015's Catalyst [View article]
Pandora Radio: Stuck In The Mud Until 2015's Catalyst [View article]
Obviously I can't say for sure if they did X then Y will leave, but I can say for sure that if Pandora charged for the material which they currently give away for free then they would not have the issue of paying a high percent of income in royalties. There is no getting around the basic fact that if you pay for something, and then give it away for free, you will lose money. This does not make the situation "unfair" as Pandora claims, as other services such as Sirius XM require users to pay, and institutes a music royalty fee to cover the costs.
Pandora "charging" for the service would, in my opinion, knock users down to less than 10 million, but it would massively reduce their content costs in the process and make them extremely profitable. There is little overhead cost to Pandora other than royalties, and the CRB has provided them with a very simple, and LOW, rate to work with so that Pandora, if it charged for what it gives away for free, would make a considerable amount of money. Enough to justify a $14 per share price so that insiders can cash in? Probably not... ;) (and I insert a big WINK here because I think that point is very important when you consider what insiders are doing with their holdings.)
Pandora has continued to fail to deliver on its promises of securing enough advertising to offset costs. I see two reasons for this... they are walking a fine line here so there is ammunition they can use with the CRB to get lower rates locked in for 5, 10 years? after which they will flesh out advertising properly... OR the advertising based model and giving the music away for free is just not working. Either presents a problem for investors, because the stock enjoys a VERY hefty valuation based upon expectations that the CRB will lower rates or that Pandora will be able to monetize so many users...
If Pandora cuts the user base by charging everyone and slams current growth, (which only free can provide), the stock will suffer regardless of profitability because grand ideas of 100 million users and "maybe...." gets removed. If Pandora continues with the advertising model and is not successful with the CRB (and I doubt they will be) the stock will suffer, albeit more slowly, as people slowly catch on that hey... this just isn't working.
My opinion? CRB isn't gonna change tune. Joe is leaving. His millions of shares will be sold into the market as will other insiders who have been slowly divesting themselves of their holdings (it's a sea of red...) and P will continue to bounce up and down until reality sinks in and retail is left holding the bag wondering what in the world just happened?
Maybe I'm wrong. I don't have a position here either way and I am not hoping for P to succeed or fail. But it's something I follow and have some opinions on. I think investors would do well to avoid the stock and enjoy the service P provides until P proves that it can handle its business.
Pandora Radio: Stuck In The Mud Until 2015's Catalyst [View article]
Yeah.
Problem is they do not charge for their services. If they charged $10 per month as others do the problem would be solved.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
If you need an article, you form an opinion and fire it off... doesn't have to make sense, as long as it's readable :P
It's not manipulation :) It's just people trying to make a buck :P
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
It's not manipulation here, and I don't think it does any good to fall into the "manipulation" line of thinking on a stock. Pull out a chart, go back a year, check the 50 day moving average line. Use that as support. It goes up about a half cent a day. SIRI can and will bounce off this and run ahead of itself.
Now if that bounce is not justified and has little to nothing behind it it will retrace quickly. SIRI is not doing this... bounces, stays aloft, volume dwindles, it drifts down, and that 50 day line catches it and pops it up again.
Healthy activity, healthy stock, and this is what you want to see as a long term holder. If you're just a trader then this type of behavior can be maddening, because you don't get the volatility on a day to day basis to trade it.
Share price has appreciated considerably in the past 8 months, beating out most of the market. I mean... where do you think the stock should be today? $3.50? $4? How much "better" is it than back last year around $2 per share? 75%? 100%? In 8 months?
Stock is up 60% since $2, in months. If that's manipulation it's manipulation UP ;)
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Hmm... good point.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Kennedy must understand the reason P pays a higher percentage is simply due to the fact that they do not charge a subscription... P's contribution as a percentage of revenue would come in FAR below Sirius XM's if P charged even $10 per month.
Perhaps Kennedy sees the smoke and mirrors lobbying going nowhere.... I'd be very surprised if the lobbying was successful. I mean honestly... how do you spin it to convince?
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Do you feel P could afford Mel?
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
Also keep in mind that for P, they are only able to skirt around the loss / profit line in the sand because they have sweetheart royalty rates on IP delivery. Those rates should really be higher, and likely will become so in the future, pushing required sub costs up... it's unlikely $3 a month will cut it as time goes on.
If Kennedy is an innovator then he's probably just what SIRI needs on the IP side of things, especially with his proven track record at P in creating an easy to use and popular music application. I don't see Kennedy as CEO of SIRI as I said, but I could see him (pending his willingness to do so) being brought on to head up "part" of SIRI and their future expansion into IP.
A CEO Swap For Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
You don't know if he was pulled away though. Kennedy may also realize P is on a mission of failure with no way of turning it around in the near term.
I find it interesting that Kennedy still has 100% his P options supposedly. Wonder what happens to those? He's pretty much the only insider at P who hasn't been bleeding out his shares since IPO. The current pop in price could present an attractive exit point for him.
Not sure how the auto sector would respond but I don't think it's a huge issue. P incorporation is app based, and thus doesn't require special hardware or whatever. I don't think the auto sector's opinion really matters in that it costs them little to nothing to add to an "app" enabled car dashboard, just like it costs Samsung nothing for P to be on your Galaxy S3.