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Stephen Frankola

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  • Netflix Q4 Sends Shares Higher but Shorts May Still Have the Last Laugh [View article]
    pretty delusional to believe that i wouldn't have exited that position. i wasn't correct, exited pretty painlessly, and that was that. even better, i've made a lot of money as an FBA seller on amazon during the past two years. but thanks for commenting, troll.
    Feb 6 12:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico Will Follow Egypt Into Collapse [View article]
    that makes about as much sense as abstinence-only education
    Feb 3 01:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Of all S&P 500 companies, 115 paid a total corporate tax rate of less than 20% over the last five years; 39 of them paid less than 10%. The paradox of a high U.S. corporate tax rate and low revenue from those taxes is "the worst of all worlds," David Leonhardt writes. "The government raises less money in corporate taxes than it once did, because of all the loopholes that have been added."  [View news story]
    Agreed. The article also criticized deductions for investments (it mentioned Southwest buying planes)... but promoting investments in such goods (via tax policy) creates a lot of economic benefit (jobs, profits) for the companies that make the durable goods/services that are being purchased.
    Feb 2 06:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: Maybe the First Social Media IPO, But Not the Best [View article]
    Just wondering - why do you model expenses more than doubling from 2010 to 2011?
    Feb 1 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Dismal Owner Earnings, Priced to Plunge [View article]
    its definitely scary that the cost of streaming content has gone up by 124m from q1 to q4 while revenue has only gone up by 102m (and dvd content purchases have been roughly flat)... that alone seems like the nail in the coffin.

    disclosure before permabulls attack: no position
    Jan 31 11:16 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Companies Facing Upcoming Tipping Points When Reporting Earnings [View article]
    I agree - that's why I chose the puts. The chance of getting burned on an actual short sale was way too high.
    Jan 26 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Game Changer for Sirius XM: Data Services for Electric Vehicles [View article]
    versions* oops
    Jan 24 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Game Changer for Sirius XM: Data Services for Electric Vehicles [View article]
    sounds like sirius is patenting a smartphone app.... an app that probably already exists in dozens of virgins on iOS and Android platforms.
    Jan 24 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Verizon's iPhone Sales May Disappoint Apple Investors [View article]
    obviously this was no attempt to predict the future precisely, rather, it was an attempt to discuss and editorialize the contrarian point of view on this topic.
    Jan 21 12:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Verizon's iPhone Sales May Disappoint Apple Investors [View article]
    While I definitely agree that Apple shares are not expensive based on ratio valuations (PE, etc) compared to almost every other growth tech company, stock performance after earnings reports would concern me if I owned this stock. Apple just beat by 20% and the stock was flat (though any upside may have been moderated by the news of Steve leaving) - but, if most other stocks in the universe beat by 20%, they'd be flying through the roof. Apple and analysts love the game of sandbagging expectations and beating them, and I really do think that when expectations aren't destroyed during a quarter investors will be in for an unpleasant surprise.
    Jan 21 08:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola Mobility: Short-Term Prospects Brightened by Android's Victory; Long-Term Concerns Remain [View article]
    Not only is that purely opinion, but I think that it is one that has little basis in fact at the moment; both Gingerbread and the latest generation of devices have matched or exceeded iPhone 4 in terms of performance and desirability. I'm sure that iPhone 5 will be "magical" (since that's the only adjective that Apple uses to describe new products), but the half-dozen Android-device manufacturers and Google will begin work on bringing their own improvements to market, making any temporary iPhone advantage short-lived.
    Jan 19 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Sirius XM Convertibles [View article]
    you, R A F and the others appear to want it both ways.

    On one hand, at $8/mo EVERYONE can afford it!!! All the poor people out there who cant buy cell phone data plans or iPods can pay for satellite radio!!!

    On the other, having an XM unit in your car is the ultimate symbol of luxury and actually changes the hyundai grille to the BMW double-kidney and/or comes with free Bentley logo.
    Jan 17 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Latest Free Shipping Teaser, And the Growing Long-Term Problem [View article]
    You are correct - my initial article was superficial in my description, and Amazon definitely takes in money on FBA transactions. The point I was trying to make was that, in some transactions, Amazon appears to be absorbing cost in order to please buyers/sellers - when I sell an item that weighs 2.5 pounds and get charged $2.50 of non-commission fees, Amazon is likely losing money on inbound processing, storage, outbound processing, and shipping that item. You're also correct about the discounted rates with carriers (I appreciate those rates every time I ship to an FBA warehouse). However, once everything is summed, Amazon is paying out $850m more than they take in to make all of this happen - which they seem OK with because it has a positive affect on sales and commission.

    I also agree that their model is currently working beautifully. But as you allude to yourself, when margins for many sellers are paper-thin, it will only take a slight fee increase to unbalance the equation, drive sellers away, and reduce Amazon's commission cut.
    Jan 17 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Latest Free Shipping Teaser, And the Growing Long-Term Problem [View article]
    I personally don't think that the potential loss of tax-free selling will hurt Amazon's business; at worst, they go from being cheaper relative to other retailers to the same. I don't buy things from Amazon to save the 6-7% sales tax I'd be paying in PA (though I have seen plenty of comments on this topic where others state that tax avoidance is a big draw). However, if rulings unfavorable to Amazon to begin to occur, the immediate bill (billions) and litigation expense incurred while attempting to avoid it will be painful and meaningfully detrimental to short-term earnings.
    Jan 17 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Motorola Mobility Unit Spin-Off: Should Investors Tread Carefully? [View article]
    whether or not this stock will pan out, both gingerbread and new android devices have surpassed current iphone tech... so until iphone 5 comes along, you're simply wrong.

    (i don't have an android phone or an iphone or own this stock).
    Jan 12 11:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment