Stephen Frankola

eBay Culling the Herd?

Read my latest blog post at my website (it should be on seekingalpha soon too) about how eBay kicked me off the site after generating thousands in revenue for them.

eBay doesn't care about treating its customers well. Amazon, here the merchants come!

Is This Oil Bubble Going to Deflate?

I have no agenda.

AeroGrow International: A Bargain at Under $5

as an avid gardener, i'd love to have one... but it's really just an expensive toy.

for an afternoon of work and $50 (TOPS), a suburbanite could plant a full garden. (obviously, someone living in a high-rise doesn't have the same luxury).

However, at $150 initial cost and super expensive seeds, any real monetary gains usually enjoyed when gardening are nullified.

So, it's a nice toy, but not a revolutionary product. as we're almost in/entering/in/emergin... from a recession, who's going to spend $200 for a tabletop garden?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Jack -
Thank you very much.

I bought May 220 put at $.30 yesterday when the stock was trading around $300.

It closed at $1.71 today, trading as high as $1.90.

Certainly there is a ton of volitility priced in and little time left, so hopefully FSLR will keep pulling back tomorrow and I'll exit. I'm being greedy, and hopefully I won't get burnt.

It's a shame your trade didn't go through, Jack.

The analyst releases today weren't even that terrible - one cut from outperform to perform, one cut from "buy" to "accumulate" while RAISING the price target and I think another analyst may have even upgraded (hopefully his boss talked to him tonight). Maybe another of the "strong buy" guys will feel compelled to bail tomorrow.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Thankfully FSLR is cooperating and vindicating me a little bit today.

As long as I watch closely, my short will be profitable. However, as stated in the original post, I do believe that this downtrend has farther to go.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

8 analysts have strong buy recommendations and 11 have buys. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone drop their rating (especially someone with a SB). Obviously, I'm short, but even the solar permabulls here aren't calling this a "strong buy" at this point.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

I don't claim to be a professional, but I didn't start yesterday either. I understand your point, though, Andrew.

And Steve - You're right - I didn't get into the game until I was about thirteen, so 2002 is probably when I started investing.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

hmm - andrew - i could sell them at the bid right now and double my money. as you see your profits evaporate, don't be overly critical of another person who knows what he's doing.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Jack - I agree with you
and you should bet by doing a short flsr/long other solar. less risk, potential great reward.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

by the way:
bought the 220 puts while the stock was above $300 today at $.30. Could flip them now and double the money, but I'll hold and see what happens.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Steve-
Remember what happened to internet stocks in 2001?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Margin contraction, cost increases, and a refusal to discuss Tellurium? Guidance is in-line, at best, for q2.

forex saved them this quarter.

they did raise guidance a tiny bit for the year, but is it really good enough? midrange was about 1b vs. 950mil before the call.

how can a long still be confident at this price?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

disregard my first statement. it's early.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

In the last post, 4.2 euros is not $6.60.

Babak, I appreciate the kind reply, but actually, you sort of have my thoughts twisted. I think that solar will be a good long term play, but FSLR will not hold up at current valuations.

The first number was OK but didn't blow things away. Obviously, the conference call at 8 is what's going to matter now.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

well BWLD's after-hours performance should make up in any losses I incur with the FSLR short tomorrow.

Andrew, there are multiple famous short sellers, such as en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... , and it's a hedge fund and mutual fund tactic. Don't be overwhelmed by "professionals" - why not utilize a tool that professionals do?