Stephen Frankola

Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over

short FSLR.

Lower Your Solar Electricity Costs with First Solar

first solar is the absolute worst solar to buy - and i've been happily short since $270. it still has a P/E of 50-100. its panels are made out of toxic metals. sales growth is slowing while margins are declining. other (private, start-up) thin-film makers are winning huge contracts. silicon prices are falling. insiders are selling. there is no reason to be long FSLR right now.

check out my website.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Jack -
Thank you very much.

I bought May 220 put at $.30 yesterday when the stock was trading around $300.

It closed at $1.71 today, trading as high as $1.90.

Certainly there is a ton of volitility priced in and little time left, so hopefully FSLR will keep pulling back tomorrow and I'll exit. I'm being greedy, and hopefully I won't get burnt.

It's a shame your trade didn't go through, Jack.

The analyst releases today weren't even that terrible - one cut from outperform to perform, one cut from "buy" to "accumulate" while RAISING the price target and I think another analyst may have even upgraded (hopefully his boss talked to him tonight). Maybe another of the "strong buy" guys will feel compelled to bail tomorrow.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Thankfully FSLR is cooperating and vindicating me a little bit today.

As long as I watch closely, my short will be profitable. However, as stated in the original post, I do believe that this downtrend has farther to go.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

8 analysts have strong buy recommendations and 11 have buys. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone drop their rating (especially someone with a SB). Obviously, I'm short, but even the solar permabulls here aren't calling this a "strong buy" at this point.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

I don't claim to be a professional, but I didn't start yesterday either. I understand your point, though, Andrew.

And Steve - You're right - I didn't get into the game until I was about thirteen, so 2002 is probably when I started investing.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

hmm - andrew - i could sell them at the bid right now and double my money. as you see your profits evaporate, don't be overly critical of another person who knows what he's doing.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Jack - I agree with you
and you should bet by doing a short flsr/long other solar. less risk, potential great reward.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

by the way:
bought the 220 puts while the stock was above $300 today at $.30. Could flip them now and double the money, but I'll hold and see what happens.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Steve-
Remember what happened to internet stocks in 2001?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Margin contraction, cost increases, and a refusal to discuss Tellurium? Guidance is in-line, at best, for q2.

forex saved them this quarter.

they did raise guidance a tiny bit for the year, but is it really good enough? midrange was about 1b vs. 950mil before the call.

how can a long still be confident at this price?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

disregard my first statement. it's early.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

In the last post, 4.2 euros is not $6.60.

Babak, I appreciate the kind reply, but actually, you sort of have my thoughts twisted. I think that solar will be a good long term play, but FSLR will not hold up at current valuations.

The first number was OK but didn't blow things away. Obviously, the conference call at 8 is what's going to matter now.

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

well BWLD's after-hours performance should make up in any losses I incur with the FSLR short tomorrow.

Andrew, there are multiple famous short sellers, such as en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... , and it's a hedge fund and mutual fund tactic. Don't be overwhelmed by "professionals" - why not utilize a tool that professionals do?

First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?

Well Jack, I'm glad that you at least seem to (roughly) agree with my conclusion...