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Stephen Pace

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  • Do Not Short Tesla Stock [View article]
    @cashchain: "Reality only Gen III in high volume could support stock... but... if batteries are that capable every major auto mfgr will have an EV - fierce competition." Tesla was well aware that there aren't enough affordable batteries in the world for Gen III. Tesla could have said "we'll wait for that to happen" and been a quite successful niche high-end provider of EVs, but that isn't Tesla's goal. Tesla wants to make sustainable transportation the norm, not the exception, so instead they are taking the much riskier approach of being an active player in forcing the price of batteries down with the Gigafactory. While others are sitting around waiting, Tesla is acting. Success is by no means assured, but if Tesla reduces the price of the existing batteries by 30% EVEN IF THE FACE OF NO OTHER IMPROVEMENT (which will no doubt also occur), Gen III makes it to market. As I have said many times, if the Tesla Model ≡ is half as cool as the Model S and gives a BMW 3 series value for the cost of ownership of a $25k Toyota Camry, Tesla will sell all they can make. People don't realize how small 200-500k cars is into the global market. My extended family will have 4 reservations in the second Tesla opens the queue. Many other owners have told me similar stories. One more thing. Even if Ford made a Ford Fusion EV with the same costs and features (looks, auto-update, AppStore, driver assist, performance) as Tesla Model ≡, would you buy it without SuperChargers to support your long distance trips? Let Model X be your guide--if Model X is as awesome as projected, it bodes well for Model ≡.
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:00 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Short Tesla Stock [View article]
    @Skeptic84 Like Navy Man, those of us who provided Tesla with "interest free loans" as you describe it were happy to do it to help play one small part in the success of the company. It was much riskier in the early days as Tesla could have failed and we would have more than likely lost our deposits. However, there is 0% chance of Tesla going under prior to Model X, so other than the frustration of waiting, the ~20k or so who have already put up $40k or $5k for a reservation for Model X have little to worry about. Given the interest rates at the time I reserved mine, it wasn't like we were losing out on much interest either.
    Dec 21, 2014. 07:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors testing battery swap program in California [View news story]
    @pot pie: "The fact is, other companies now have to give them cash because some crazy politicians concocted this scheme in CA." Maybe you don't live in LA, but in my view, politicians are well within their mandate to protect their citizens from things that are killing them. Smog in LA was terrible before California required improved emissions, and ZEV credits are part of the same idea: require cars that don't contribute to the smog issue. You can say that makes them "crazy", but if you lived in a city like I do with a terrible number of bad air quality days, you might think otherwise.

    MIT Study: Air Pollution Kills 200,000 Annually in US:
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors testing battery swap program in California [View news story]
    @pot pie: "45 minutes" I know you are trolling, but I'll give you the real answer. It takes around 20 minutes to get back half your range from almost empty on a SuperCharger (say, 120 miles). However, if you wanted to drive 180 miles (say, if your destination was 90 miles from the SuperCharger and you wanted to go there and return to the same SuperCharger), you'll need more than 20 minutes worth of juice. Hence me saying 45 minutes. With tapering, an hour tops for "full". But if you plan charging with your meal, not much of an inconvenience plus your fill-up is free vs. the $80 I used to spend on my previous vehicle that required premium fuel.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors testing battery swap program in California [View news story]
    @pot pie: Perhaps you missed the part about Tesla requiring that you pick up your own battery (now charged) on the way back. If you swap an old pack for a new pack and never go back to get yours, Tesla will send you a bill for the difference.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors testing battery swap program in California [View news story]
    @pot pie: The revision to the ZEV rules requires significant usage of the station to qualify, so if that were the only reason, I think Tesla wouldn't have done it. Instead, it shows what is possible, and provides yet another option for owners. Besides quite a few wealthy owners among them who would think nothing of spending $80 to save 45 minutes, there are already owners on the forums who said they would take advantage of it in certain cases. One example was bringing the family down to Disneyworld--when you have a car full of kids, 5 minutes vs 45 minutes is worth the cash. We'll see what the usage is. I would do it once just to annoy the kooks who claimed that swapping was not only impossible, but that the previous battery swap event and video was "entirely faked."
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:50 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors testing battery swap program in California [View news story]
    @jyurow: Shai Agassi has stated that he got the idea for Better Place by visiting Tesla, not the other way around.
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Claims Are Out Of Sync With Reality [View article]
    Elon stated in multiple places that true autopilot is still years away. He has been very clear that Tesla automotive assist features still require a driver, and lane change is one of those. Yes, the driver will have to check his rearview mirror before using it. You can call that gimmicky if you want, but Tesla putting out features now to get real-world experience and feedback now for improvements in the future. Most of your other points are grasping at straws. For instance:

    1) Hyperloop? Elon said he was open sourcing the white paper explicitly because HE DID NOT HAVE TIME TO WORK ON IT. He said "I WILL NOT BE DOING THIS, BUT I PUT IT OUT THERE IN CASE SOMEONE ELSE DOES." He was explicitly annoyed that California was building the most expensive yet slowest high speed train in the world and wanted to point out there could be alternatives.

    2) CHAdeMO - I'll admit I'm on the waiting list for this, but as the Japan experience shows, I'm happy for them to wait until some of the issues are worked out. If you've read about the issues involved, you can see they aren't all on the Tesla side. While CHAdeMO is a "standard", different manufacturers have implemented some points slightly differently and the Tesla is the only car pulling as much juice for as long. Some of the CHAdeMO boxes have shut down after long charges making them unavailable for the next person, and some of the cooling systems have proved inadequate (either in design or in maintenance practices). For instance, some Nissan dealers were not cleaning out the intakes and they were getting filled with leaves. My hope is that CHAdeMO will die, but if it doesn't, the issues will get worked out, the companies making crappy chargers will die (like Blink), and Tesla Model S vehicles will have yet another place to charge since Tesla makes adapters for everything.

    3) As an owner, I'm happy that Tesla is prioritizing SuperChargers before solar panels. Not only are the solar panels more expensive, but they really need to be placed in a place like Arizona where the investment makes the most return. I fully expect Tesla will announce that instead of solar panels at every SuperCharger, they ran the numbers and have decided that putting up a field of solar panels elsewhere makes more sense. Maybe the Gigafactory will have excess capacity.

    4) Battery swap will never be a popular option, but Tesla has stated they'll have one pilot station live soon. When that happens, I fully expect every doubter who has posted an article or comment on SeekingAlpha saying it would never happen to post their apologies. Not.
    Dec 11, 2014. 09:55 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Motors' Road To India Won't Be Easy [View article]
    @C.N: 1) Tires are no more a problem for Tesla than they will be for any other vehicle. The person buying a Tesla will be able to afford to replace a tire now and then, just as they would have to do for their Audi A7 or BMW 7 Series.

    2) The Tesla has such a long range that a few hour power outage or even a few days is unlikely to affect the typical driver that has a 50 mile commute. Not only that, traffic is often so slow in some Indian cities that even a 60 kWh car should be able to clear 250 miles on a charge, if not more.
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Motors' Road To India Won't Be Easy [View article]
    @tschmidt_de: Many people with deep knowledge of the automotive business said things like:

    "No one will buy electric cars. Electric cars have too many roadblocks in front of them, not the least of which is a lack of charging stations and infrastructure. The Tesla Roadster will never ship."
    "The Model S will never ship. If it does, it will be a terrible car. Building cars is harder than building software."

    Yet, these things got done. Now people are saying the Model X will never ship. Sure, it has been delayed, but having A) driven a Model S for over 2 years and B) seen the Model X prototype vehicle in person, there isn't a doubt in my mind that the Model X will not only ship, but it will be a great vehicle. One step at a time--Elon has to make the people doubting the Model X look like fools before he can make the people doubting Model ≡ look like fools. No one is saying the things Tesla is trying to do aren't hard, they are. But Elon has put together a great team and will get it done.
    Dec 6, 2014. 07:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Underestimates Supercharger Expenses [View article]
    @tscmidt_de: No other company wants to join the network at this time because no other car manufacturer wants to support a non-open standard nor has a car that is superchargeable. Maybe an OEM will work out a usage agreement and adapter with Tesla--but only after actually building a long range, superchargeable car. Which doesn't exist yet. The numbers are tiny anyway--think about how much a typical OEM spends on commercials and then compare that cost to SuperChargers which could be argued is a marketing expense of sorts. Tesla is getting $2k per car (either explicitly or implicitly) and that goes a long way to ensuring that Tesla isn't going to lose money in this area. If anything, they'll make money. By the time Gen III comes out, they'll have a good idea about usage and could decide to charge either a per use fee or reasonable limits on Gen III cars should they be getting close to break even on the system.
    Dec 5, 2014. 05:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Deliveries In Europe Show Strange ASP Increase [View article]
    @cparmerlee: I visited my service center recently and asked about drive train replacements. A good chunk of replacements that they had done were for 'customer satisfaction'. That is, the motor was still working fine, and likely would have worked fine forever, but it made more noise than the owner liked. It seemed like early adopters don't mind the sound so much (sounds like what you think an electric car might sound like on acceleration), but the chunk of VINs after that until they resolved the issue is where most people were asking for replacements. You can try to spin that as a negative, but the vast majority of replacements were not because the motor quit working, but because people didn't like the noise. And most of those got door to door service and a replacement Tesla while they waited to get their car back. As problems with cars go, there are a lot worse ones out there (ignition switches and airbags being two that have been in the news recently).
    Dec 1, 2014. 10:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Volvo's Plug-In Electric SUV Make Life Difficult For Tesla's Model X? [View article]
    @TooLateSchmart I guess you're trolling, but in case you aren't, 2 in the front, 3 in the back seat, and 2 kids under 8 years old in the rear facing seats in the hatch.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Volvo's Plug-In Electric SUV Make Life Difficult For Tesla's Model X? [View article]
    @TooLateSchmart: 95% of the time, you'd charge at your house. If you don't have a house, you can charge free at South Sioux City Hall or the Hy-Vee Market at 2615 Stone Park Blvd. By the end of 2015, there will be a SuperCharger right smack in the middle of Iowa. But it looks like the chargers bordering Iowa would already enable you to get to the east west corridors.
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Reported Deliveries Don't Seem To Jibe With External Data [View article]
    @Ad van der Meer: They would also be surprised by how many cars have made it to Mexico, despite it being officially unsupported by Tesla.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment