Seeking Alpha

Stephen Pace

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Stephen Pace's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tesla: It's Time To Impress [View article]
    @cparmerlee I also know little about accounting, but it seems like they would have to converge over time. Why? Because the reason they are GAAP negative is they can't recognize the revenue from the leases that they already have in the bank. Once they can recognize it, it seems like it would push them GAAP positive assuming everything else stays the same. Of course, nothing stays the same. For instance, margins for 1H 2015 are likely to be higher again since the early Model X will all be Signature Series. That is $40k in the bank already that should be recognizable on a maxed out car once it is delivered (but only brings in the balance of $60k-$80k for the final payment).
    Oct 14 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Time To Impress [View article]
    @MtSmalls Once the Model X event is announced, the stock is likely to start trending up again. I would anticipate a very similar event with an acceleration test, showing off a big person getting into the back seat with child seats in the second row, and the same autopilot test.
    Oct 14 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: It's Time To Impress [View article]
    @davep007: If the cupholder is the only thing holding you back, Tesla has a solution for that soon:

    http://bit.ly/1w61kSc

    There are also third-party console options already on the market:

    http://bit.ly/1w61itM
    Oct 14 10:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    @Siddharth Dalal Also, don't forget that using launch control "too much" can void the warranty in most ICE vehicles. Example:

    http://bit.ly/1D29fSZ
    Oct 10 10:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Something In The 'D' Which Might Prompt Direct Competition [View article]
    @Paulo Santos Just to be clear, the car does not overheat, it goes into reduced power mode so that it _doesn't_ overheat, and reduced power mode is still substantial. While that might seem like semantics, it won't affect the average driver outside of Germany. I've put my car on a track, and I never saw the limiter go below 80 mph. That said, it would be very interesting to see if there were other modifications to P85D to add a larger radiator or integrating the coolant lines with the AC system. If no change were made, while 155 mph would be possible, it wouldn't be for very long. Cooling advancements would be nice in that case, and Tesla could appropriately charge an add-on for 'track hardware'. That would add even more margin for them.
    Oct 10 06:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Write A Tesla Short Article [View article]
    1) Look at Tesla's revenue curve. They are generating cash and are reinvesting it into future models. Tesla could have stopped at Model X and said "we're going to be a niche high-end OEM" like Porsche and called it a day. But they didn't want to do that and they aren't going to stop until Model ≡. Anything less and they would consider themselves a failure since their goal is to bring sustainable transportation to the masses.

    2) The batteries will lose range over time, but most Roadster batteries are fine. Model S batteries are even better. Sure, there will be some issues, and there have been some folks that have had their packs replaced already, but for the most part, things seems great on degradation and reliability front. Time will tell. Remember, warranty doesn't include a range guarantee.

    3) Please, Sergey Brin isn't a self-oriented person? Elon Musk? This entire point seems more like you are trying to insult owners than add anything to the conversation.
    Oct 9 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Not To Write A Tesla Short Article [View article]
    @French battery specialist The current life of a Model S battery is unknown. However, Tesla warranties them for 8 years unlimited miles and all indications are, if there is no internal failure, the pack will last 10+ years. In 10 years, the pack will not have the range it had at the beginning of life. Let's say it will have 70% of range, which is conservative based on Roadster batteries. That means an 85 kWh battery would have 185.5 miles of range in 10 years. That still meets way more than my daily driving needs. Further, in 10 years, maybe I will decide to replace my battery with a 500 mile range battery (no doubt available by then). What happens to the old battery?

    1) Given the huge battery size, there would be more than enough juice left to be used for grid storage for another 10 years.
    2) Recycle: Battery recycling technology may well be better in 10 years, 20 years if the battery is used another 10 years for grid storage.

    Worse case, the battery gets thrown away in 20 years. The Tesla pack is not toxic and indeed is certified landfill safe. Not that I think many will end up there, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if it did.
    Oct 9 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs Model C, Not D [View article]
    @PeterJA "A 85kWh battery pack divided by 5 is 17kWh. That's a golf cart or a car with a 40-mile range." Besides this excellent point, what is the margin for such a car? The margin for one S85 with options may be larger than the margin for 5 Leafs. And Elon has said again and again that 200 mile range is the magic number that eliminates range anxiety, especially when coupled with a SuperCharger network.

    @Valueseeker The entire reason Tesla needs the Gigafactory is to reduce the cost of batteries 30%. That, coupled with cell improvements, is going to get us the base $35k Tesla Model ≡ with the 200 mile range. The car can't arrive before then. We'd all like it sooner, but don't worry, Tesla has plenty of Model S and X to sell before S ≡ X arrives in the meantime.
    Oct 9 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Re/code on Tesla: The D stands for dual-motor [View news story]
    @Frank Greenhalgh: Some will, sure. Case in point: Nissan GT-R. You think people are buying Veyrons because they look good?
    Oct 7 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Re/code on Tesla: The D stands for dual-motor [View news story]
    @fiwiki2: Model S has been getting lighter over time. Even if the second motor adds a couple hundred pounds, we'll see what the 0-60 is on the performance edition. Likely sub-4 second putting it into supercar range.
    Oct 7 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Tesla's VP Of Communications Resign Yesterday? [View article]
    @Vico Confino: George Blankenship is retired and spending time traveling, doing photography, and seeing his grandkids. He came to TMC Connect this year and filled us in on what he's been doing. Great guy and always fascinating to listen to. He said in that position, you keep Elon's hours which are insane. As many here have stated, being VP of Communications for Tesla isn't the easiest job in the world despite Anton Wahlman's article lamenting the amount of free coverage that Tesla gets.
    Oct 7 02:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Tesla's VP Of Communications Resign Yesterday? [View article]
    @Value Horizon: I met Peter Rawlinson at the Oct 2011 factory event and I loved his YouTube videos. For a while, outside of Elon, he was the most informative internal resource there. While it was disappointing that he left, it sounded like "his job was done". Certainly the car went on to be successful and the company needed a Jerome Guillen level guy to actually build it and build it at volume.
    Oct 7 02:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Run Is Done [View article]
    @Treehill No, but they have one for gasoline car fires. In 1980 it was 456k fires with 650 deaths and $1.4B USD in damage--quite an accomplishment. Of course, they're much improved now. By 2012, there were "only" 172,500 gasoline car fires and 300 deaths:

    http://bit.ly/1sZGj6S
    Sep 25 10:09 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barclays: Asia critical for Tesla Motors to meet delivery guidance [View news story]
    @samdehne I don't think Tesla is losing much sleep over the new Fisker. For one thing, it isn't a pure EV and doesn't help China get rid of tailpipes which is their goal. Second, the car is slower, has much less storage, and seats fewer people. The infotainment system is also terrible compared to Tesla's (that said, Tesla's infotainment setup pretty much makes any car infotainment system look bad, but Fisker's seems to be especially bad).
    Sep 17 03:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Projections For Tesla To Sell 500,000 Cars In 2020 Are Absurd [View article]
    @samdehne The government is receiving a service from SpaceX for the money they pay--at a significantly reduced rate compared to what they themselves can deliver. Further, it bolsters a US company to reduce our reliance on Putin's rocket engines.
    Sep 17 11:40 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
444 Comments
1,686 Likes