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Stephen Pace  

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  • Further Reasons To Believe The Model X Is Delayed [View article]
    LA Times not withstanding ("Tesla delivered only 6 Model X SUVs"), the VIN of the non-Founders 'Ludicrous Mode' Model X I rode in at the event was 85. So while they may have only given away a few cars on the day, many more than that have been made. Those have been used for crash testing, marketing cars, etc. Fit and finish of the vehicle I rode in was great and the windshield is really something to behold. I can't imagine how expensive it will be to replace if you had it damaged, but it is extremely cool.
    Oct 1, 2015. 10:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla finally launches SUV [View news story]
    @Ken Sanders: If Model S is to be a guide, almost all reservations turn into real orders.
    Sep 30, 2015. 05:54 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Tesla Supercharging Partner In Europe [View article]
    @Bill: And most existing chargers are installed with wiring that cannot support more amps than they are already providing. ClipperCreek sells 80 amp chargers on the J1772 standard now (equivalent to Tesla HPWCs) but other than the Sun Country Highway in Canada, most locations installed 30 amp chargers, and even within those, most of the Blink ones had to be backed off to 23 amps. This is because the government helped defray the cost of charger installation and the people doing it did the cheapest installation possible. For just a little more money, they could have planned for the future, but now installing a faster charger in most locations is going to require a complete reinstallation rather than just changing out the box which is a bummer. Penny-wise, pound foolish.
    Sep 25, 2015. 03:24 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla 2015 Delivery Prediction, And The Chevrolet Bolt Monkey Wrench [View article]
    @Bodian: I've put my Model S on a track before. The car doesn't 'shut down' it merely goes into 'speed limiting' mode so instead of going 155 mph you can do 100. 99.9% of traffic stops are immediate--you don't need to chase anyone. For the 0.1%, the Model S will still be able to keep up in the majority of cases, but even if it can't (car chases are dangerous), the LAPD has choppers. Outside of Fast and Furious, not many get away. :-)
    Sep 23, 2015. 09:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla Adequately Reserving For Warranty Expenses? [View article]
    @Ben Strubel "While Tesla does claim that its powertrain has fewer moving parts, that does not necessarily make it more reliable or less prone to failure." A) Tesla isn't just making a 'claim' it has fewer moving parts, it DOES have fewer moving parts. For example, my last car (a Lexus) had 4 oxygen sensors, two of which required replacing over my ownership. Tesla has an engineering program that looks at everything that is going on with the fleet and evaluating all parts that are preventing 1M miles of service free travel. They run service as a break even part of the business, so that makes sense, unlike dealers who make over 50% of their money on service and actually benefit when cars have to come in for service. B) The cost of replacing the few drive train elements they have isn't likely costing Tesla that much. For example, I have a very early VIN car so I've had a few of the early issues. I had my contactors replaced in my high voltage battery, a service that is now possible to be performed at the local service centers. That replacement helped lead to Ludicrous mode, because in evaluating how to prevent such failure, they replaced the 1300 amp contactors with 1500 amp versions which helped enable 0-60 in 2.8s. Similarly, motor replacements take about 3hrs (then a wait for the firmware to update) and no doubt the returned motors are reworked, the problem corrected, and reused. (Many motors that were replaced did not fail outright but made more noise than they should.)
    Sep 21, 2015. 05:38 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors lower after WSJ report on Apple EV [View news story]
    @User 19236151: People waited more than 2 years for Tesla Model S. They waited more than 2 years for Tesla Model X. When the reservation queues open in March 2016 for the Model 3, Tesla is going to have 40k reservations the first week and they'll have presold the entire first year's production in the first month. I'm sure they'll be a few folks that wait, but I don't think it will be material given the pent up demand for Model 3.
    Sep 21, 2015. 03:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors lower after WSJ report on Apple EV [View news story]
    Easily. Take a look at the doors--at most mall locations, they slide open wide just like the similarly designed Tesla stores. 5th Ave NYC store might be an issue, though, but my guess is Apple can afford to build a hidden freight elevator somewhere nearby. The old FAO Schwarz location could be used.
    Sep 21, 2015. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors lower after WSJ report on Apple EV [View news story]
    @labas112: Tesla's answer is long-term supply contracts for local Lithium sources which they are signing now. We'll see where everyone else gets cells from once the Gigafactory starts cranking them out with all components pre-committed 2 years out. I'm not saying LG and Samsung can't make cells, I'm saying they can't commit to spending money to expand supply unless they have the output committed, and I don't believe any other OEM outside of Nissan (and maybe BMW) believes they'll be able to sell cars in the volume that Tesla believes. Battery supply could get tight.

    I look forward to Apple joining this market for two reasons: 1) Apple marketing muscle will convince people that EVs are the future and 2) Apple will push the dealer question. Are the dealers going to try to tell Apple they can't have a vehicle in their stores? Good luck with that. People will realize at that point such laws really don't make sense and Apple lawyers will sue who they need to to get it to happen.
    Sep 21, 2015. 03:33 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla sets Model X launch event for Sept. 29 [View news story]
    @Bonaire: Your comment implies reservation holders will be asking for their money back. However, based on the experience with Model S, few will. In fact, quite a few of the Model X reservations that cancelled already were due to people changing to a Model S reservation once AWD became available. No, if you waited more than 2 years for this vehicle, you're going to take delivery, even if you have to wait a few more months.
    Sep 21, 2015. 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies sees significant battery advantage for Tesla Motors [View news story]
    @samdehne: Sorry, most of the time technology wins out in the end. You can try to legislate against Amazon, but you probably aren't keeping Borders in business. Existing players will have to evolve or die. Oil changes go away. The corner gas station goes away. This is inevitable and something that can't be stopped. But the Buccees of the world will stick 20 high speed EV chargers out where the pumps used to be and will probably survive just fine.
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies sees significant battery advantage for Tesla Motors [View news story]
    @Bill Kittle: Many of these new battery technologies have been 'almost ready' for 10 years. It is one thing getting something to 'almost' work in the lab, it is another to have cells ready to go into automobile that will last 15+ years and thousands of charge and recharge cycles.
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jefferies sees significant battery advantage for Tesla Motors [View news story]
    I believe the Model S has their own NCA blend (made by Panasonic) that is lithium cobalt nickel aluminum oxide. However, Tesla recently made a change to add silicon for part of the anode in the 90 kWh packs (maybe others as well, I don't know) so they are still working on improvements. For the Gigafactory, the cells will also be somewhat larger and not the 18650s that were optimized for laptops.
    Sep 17, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, High-End Competition Is Not Tesla's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    @cashchain: "Cars are just transportation" Really? Strange that Audi, Mercedes, and BMWs sell so many expensive cars then.

    "BEV's using Lithium are decades away from parity with today's ICE" Tesla Model S has reached price parity with Audi A8. Model X has reached price parity with Porsche Cayenne and Range Rover. However, cost of operation for Tesla is significantly lower. You say 'decades away' but if Tesla is successful in bringing to market the Model 3 at base $35k with a cost of operation of a $25k Camry, you're going to see a lot of sales of that car.

    I think you're right that the average person doesn't care what powers their car as long as it gets them there, which is why when EVs hit cost and performance parity, the switchover is going to be rapid.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:24 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No, High-End Competition Is Not Tesla's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    @James Carlini: Tesla has the best of both worlds here. Tesla owners can fill up at Tesla stations without having to worry about non-Tesla congestion and can also fill up at literally any other charging station based on any standard because they have adapters (or can easily make adapters) for any standard now or to come. I personally have adapters and access cards for NRG eVgo, Blink, and ChargePoint. Do I need them? Rarely, but it is a nice to have when you need a convenient destination charge, although Tesla has that pretty well covered as well. Tesla controls access to their network via VIN--if another company wants to use Tesla's network, and can build a car that can accommodate that much charge that fast, they are welcome to pay Tesla for such access on a car by car basis. I'm sure Tesla wouldn't turn that money down, but I doubt any OEMs would want to give that type of money to one of their competitors.
    Sep 17, 2015. 12:18 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Could Be Tesla's Worst Nightmare [View article]
    @Davewmart: Remember when the Model S launched and Elon drove out on stage with 7 people in the car and all of that luggage piled up around the people that got out of the car? Very powerful statement: "The Model S can easily haul your entire family and your luggage." The Model X comes with a hitch mounted bike and ski rack standard, and no doubt those things will be shown to great effect at launch. They'll patiently explain how much easier it is to load on the hitch and how much more efficient in terms of mileage it is to carry things behind the car rather than on top. And that will be that. Down the line someone (maybe Tesla) will come out with a canoe rack that works with the doors (maybe only one falcon wing opens up when the canoe is loaded) and exactly three people will buy it. This is a non-issue as soccer mom's and dad's could care less about hauling a canoe on their SUV.
    Sep 16, 2015. 11:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment