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Stephen Pace  

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  • Long-Term Tax And Competitive Headwinds Abound For Tesla Motors [View article]
    @newmone: Not its not, not by anyone sane anyway. The opposite is true--Tesla did the engineering for powertrain in the electric Toyota RAV4. There were plenty of interesting stories of how the two teams worked together on it.
    Nov 23, 2015. 08:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Will Fall Far Short Of Elon Musk's Model X Delivery Forecast [View article]
    @Ralph Vader: I've had my car on the track (Texas World Speedway) at speeds well over 100 miles per hour and done plenty of heavy braking. I've also spoken with other owners that have tracked their cars. I concur with Raster: "Without experience about what you're talking about, your opinion lacks weight." What's more, when the Model S came out, many of the automotive mags took a very hard look at the Model S suspension and were shocked at how good it was given it was their first attempt. One described it as 'Audi-like', but the fact they got it so right (and got Car of the Year) isn't surprising given how many top automotive engineers they have working for them.
    Nov 13, 2015. 12:32 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Will Fall Far Short Of Elon Musk's Model X Delivery Forecast [View article]
    @Ralph Vader / Keith Leech: Katzenberg's car was t-boned by an SUV. And billionaires don't generally 'gush' unless they really want to. I have no doubt that he'll buy another Tesla because if money isn't a factor, why wouldn't you buy the safest car on the world?
    Nov 13, 2015. 12:20 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Gives Us Further Information As The Bulls Strike At Strawmen [View article]
    @Always dubious: Didn't happen with Model S, so I doubt it will happen with Model X. If you wait this long for a vehicle, especially the Sigs with $40k, down, you are taking delivery.
    Nov 5, 2015. 07:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold [View article]
    @anon321#: GM drops off cars at the dealers and says 'bye'. Tesla drops off cars at people's homes and doesn't count the car until delivered until then. You may think people traveling at Christmas is a joke, but if Tesla tells you you car will be ready the day after Christmas and you're sitting on a beach in Pensacola instead of at home, you might defer delivery as well.
    Nov 4, 2015. 12:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold [View article]
    @User 19236151: "To be fair, I think he said 100,000 annualized pace by the end of 2015, i.e. 1950-ish a week. Which they'll be short of, but close to (maybe)." Elon didn't say they would sell 100k cars in 2016. What he said on answer to the question was that he feels natural demand once the markets have matured is around 100k Model S per year (no year specified). If 97% of current Tesla owners say they will buy another Tesla, and average owner keeps their car 4-5 years, you are going to start seeing a lot of existing owners rebuying in addition to the new owners. Some think demand is saturated, but I personally wouldn't buy a Tesla in a geography without a service center, and new service centers are popping up opening up virgin territory. Not having a service center hasn't stopped more than 300 crazy Russians from buying a car, but not everyone has the means to act with that risk. Mexico will be opening up which should be interesting given how many people from Mexico I've seen at the Houston Galleria location looking at and ordering cars for grey market import.
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold [View article]
    @Mr. Cat: Race you to it. :-) I figure there will be at least 4 reservations in my extended family alone.

    @Anton: Regarding CapEx, Tesla is going to need to do some investing for Model 3, no question. But even there I think Tesla will pull out a few rabbits. If they want to get started slow, they could rework / reuse the existing first line in Fremont now that Model S and X production is shifting to the new line. They will likely need to produce in multiple geographies given the volume and there will be a bidding war to locate those additionally plants.

    Even if you were to say Model S demand will drop to 40k a year (no way, but let's pretend), and Model X reaches a similar number of 40k per year, at ASP $85k (real number is higher) and margin of 27%, that is over $1.8B in cash. If the cars sell at a higher ASP (likely given Ludicrous), that is even more cash. If margin increases to 30%, that is more cash.

    What assumption is wrong?
    Nov 4, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold [View article]
    @Anton: I think the difference this time is Tesla is well positioned to do it. CapEx for Model X done with the second line pretty much complete, Model X ramp about to start, 25k+ Model X backlog to go through, autopilot released with tons of media interest and owner YouTube videos hitting the net. You heard Elon on the call. Tesla firmly believes they can sell 100k Model S per year at market maturity and probably as many Model X. Many will dispute that number, but to them I just have this to say:

    2012: 2,650
    2013: 22,477
    2014: 31,655 (total: 56,782)
    2015: 50,000 (projected total: 106,782)

    The number goes up every year, and even the most ardent Tesla hater knows the number will go up next year too. Without traditional advertising. For competitors, that has to be a scary thought.

    I don't think Bolt will sell well. I think EV faithful will wait to see what Tesla puts out on offer, and I don't think what is unveiled early next year will disappoint. That unveil will freeze the market until Tesla is ready to start selling, and when they open the order lines, the world will be shocked at just how many people plunk down money for a Model 3.
    Nov 3, 2015. 11:14 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold [View article]
    @boxman22: TMC tolerates plenty of people posting ill of Tesla. That said, Tesla doesn't own or control TMC, so even if TMC did, it has nothing to do with Tesla.
    Nov 3, 2015. 10:56 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: How Low Does The 2015 Forecast Go? [View article]
    @Bodian: Yet 2015 sales are higher than 2014 sales. And 2016 sales will be more than 2015. Yawn.
    Nov 2, 2015. 12:47 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors keeps LG Chem in the mix [View news story]
    @out for now: "The main thing this announcement does is prove that LG's chemistry is sufficient to support fast charging." No it doesn't. The new Roadsters will recharge at the same rate on the same 240V. Roadster's can't SuperCharge, unfortunately, although I was hoping Tesla was going to somehow come up with a solution for that when they did the upgrade.
    Oct 28, 2015. 12:49 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gigatalk from Elon Musk [View news story]
    @cparmerlee ">>> The point is that when an officer of a public company provides material information to selected people that he does not make in public, that can constitute insider trading, or at least become the basis for shareholder lawsuits.<<<"

    Let's be clear, you can sue for anything. But in the case of Elon's Twitter announcements, you'd lose because Twitter doesn't even require an account to read tweets. Just point your web browser at his tweet stream and you are good to go. If you are a public figure and people are being rude to you, you have every right to block their Twitter account, but anyone can see the tweets buy just logging out of their account. SEC doesn't say you have to be able to access tweets using a particular account, only that they can be accessed free of charge and are 'widely disseminated' which Twitter is. Bodian is just whining and my bet is he is reading the tweets anyway given how closely he follows Tesla.
    Oct 26, 2015. 06:57 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Autopilot Lane Change: Likely To Be Unsafe At Any Speed [View article]
    @Paulo Santos There is nothing new here. How about this: Tesla ships the feature 'off' and when you switch it on, the system pops up a box which you have to dismiss that reminds the user that the system doesn't see oncoming cars approaching at speed and you are responsible for that. Does that meet your criteria of informing people? Because that is the only issue here. You suggest that Tesla drivers are unaware of how the sensors work now (I disagree), but if that is your primary beef, a pop-up warning goes a long way to addressing the 'informed' issue. However, it is hard to make a foolproof system because fools prove to be very ingenious. Obviously the $50k sensor package Google uses for their self-driving system is the most advanced, but few are going to pay for that. Tesla is saying 'here are some things we can do now for a reasonable price' and having people use common sense. We already know that Tesla lawyers are less conservative compared with Toyota lawyers. Whenever I got into my previous Lexus I had to click a 'I won't use the screen when driving' EVERY TIME and even worse, even if a passenger was sitting next to me (which the car knows due to the airbag sensor), the passenger can't set the nav destination while driving. Because of this, I will never buy another Lexus. Tesla is advancing the state of the art and getting real-world data and experience with these packages and how they are used.

    My NHTSA prediction on lane change is this: this feature is certainly no worse than a human and is actually better because it uses the blind spot sensors. Because of that, it will be approved when evaluated. Humans are terrible drivers and don't check their mirrors, ignore blindpots and crash, DAILY. This feature is one step improved from that. My two cents, anyway.
    Oct 23, 2015. 11:42 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk: Tesla could start China production in 2 years [View news story]
    @Skeptic84: Someone just drove coast to coast in a Tesla in 57 hours, 48 minutes while barely touching the wheel, so I think Elon has delivered on the promise of fast long distance travel. As faster supercharging has arrived, the need for 5 minute swaps for $50 become less important.
    Oct 23, 2015. 10:32 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla unveils autopilot software; lane-changing, parallel parking supported [View news story]
    Under your Whopper #6, automatic lane change goes live exactly as shown at the launch (e.g. you have to press the turn signal and while the car will check your blind spot, you yourself have to check to make sure a speeding car isn't bearing down on you and that the lane change is otherwise safe). You had this as something that would never see the light of day, but here it is.
    Oct 14, 2015. 11:36 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment