Stephen Pace

Tech, gadgets, long only
Stephen Pace
Tech, gadgets, long only
Contributor since: 2014
The only shares I have left are at $140, so I bought some more when it touch the 140s again. Basically you believe Tesla will be able to pull out of the cash nosedive before they hit the ground or not. I believe they will, and I believe you'll see 100k reservations for Model 3 the first week. I was guessing 40k previously, but that is when I thought the reservations were going to be $40k and $2500.
Nope, I think TSLA is overvalued for $280 and I sold most of my holdings. But at $140s? Yeah, I bought some more.
@ispank: We'll see lines at the stores and the servers crash from the number of reservations taken. 100k reservations the first week -- free $100M loan.
He said no Signature series, but I'm hoping that existing owners will get the option to join the queue a day early. But you may be right--the lines alone would be a significant news story. I think there would still be lines even if existing Tesla owners were able to join early, though.
Come back next year after Tesla is cash positive and say that again. Shorts are about to be severely burned.
Any CPO cars are referenced as inventory, plus service center loaners. CPO cars don't count as new car sales, but service center loaners do since they have never been titled. There is no confusion in this and no change to stated policy.
@nnnnnoway: "not really a Tesla fan anymore, especially since Jada Smith got his X before I got mine. He wasn't even in puberty when I put 40K down on this car. just not reasonable." I can give you plenty of scenarios where you are completely wrong, here are two:
1) "JS: DAAAAAAD. Can you put up $40k for a car I will get in a few years when I'm ready to drive?" WS: No problem."
2) "JS: DAAAAAAAD. I want this car now! WS: No problem." <WS buys for a hefty premium from one of the many Model X flippers out there>
When money is no object, lines mean nothing, but it doesn't mean Tesla let him skip ahead of you. He might have already been ahead of you or paid someone else who was.
2007: "The Roadster will never be built, Tesla doesn't know what they are doing"
2011: "The Model S will never be built, they don't know how to build a car from scratch, Lotus basically built the Roadster"
2015: "The Model X will never be built, the falcon wing doors will prove too hard to build and they will have to go back to the drawing board and make new doors"
@valuation_investor: I'll put you down for 2016: "The Model 3 will never be built". Do you want to add "The Gigafactory will never be built" to the list also?
Regarding Porsche Mission E, the stats they released "zero to 62 mph in less than 3.5 seconds, 310 miles of all-electric range" is already slower than the "2.8-second zero-to-60" of a shipping Tesla Model S P90D with Ludicrous. And you don't think Model S will be better by the time Porsche launches their vehicle? There are on average 20 engineering changes per WEEK on the Model S, and we've seen firsts with remote updates, autopilot, and more. Further, where is Porsche going to get 800V for their magical recharger? Tesla already has a global SuperCharger network that uses standard 480V industrial power.
If you think Faraday Future is going to produce a realistic competitor anytime soon, my guess is you didn't watch their 'launch'. I wish them luck, but they really botched the unveil.
Add to that, the other OEMs are selling yesterday's technology. As carbon tax comes to the fore, emission testing becomes more and more stringent, and some cities start to ban gas cars from the city limits, we'll see which OEMs survive the switch. Some will, but not all.
Hyperloops are only for city pairs. We'll still fly longer distances.
@Mitch Zeitz There is a grace period from when someone buys the car and when it has to be registered. Also, as someone else pointed out, the registration system itself was broken on Dec 30-31. De Danske Bilimporterer probably uses some form of government registration data to estimate their number since Tesla doesn't report it directly.
@Randy: Exactly. People who haven't toured the Fremont factory since the new line went in really have no clue on the amount of production Tesla will capable of in 2016.
@Davewmart: Don't worry, the other 300 will be delivered in a few days. The ratio at one Houston service center was 8 Model X ready before the new year, but only 2 delivered. 6 people couldn't take delivery over the holiday, but will very soon. A few days either way doesn't really matter in the larger picture.
Keef and Ralph are the same person.
@putitallonred With a lower center of gravity than any SUV on the road, try to roll a Tesla Model X. I dare you. NHTSA couldn't. On the other hand, a BMW i8 flips quite easily:
http://bit.ly/1ZJtFLL
@Frank: Good thing the Tesla navigation screen tells you exactly where to go for the SuperCharger then.
@robiniv Elon and his team did alright tonight. In fact, they made history.
@jvs11560: Well, there were thousands of us who did that with Model S, so.... there's that. Beyond that, if you think not having a sunroof is what is going to kill Model X, think again. The new windshield wraps up around over the driver's head and gives you a sense of floating through the air. I could say the same thing as you: why would you buy an SUV that doesn't have the amazing visibility of the Model X?
@pot pie: You laugh, but if Tesla sent out an email tomorrow to all 100k owners and said "$5k gets you a spot in the queue, $40k gets you in the first 1k spots", they would take in a ton of reservations. I've said for a long time that if Tesla just opened it to anyone and asked for $2500 refundable deposit, they'd have 40k reservations in the first week, and 100k in the first few months is probably reasonable beyond that. That would be unprecedented for a car that people hadn't even seen yet. There is huge pent-up demand for a cheaper Tesla. How do I know? People come up to me all the time unsolicited as I park and say "Model 3 will be my next car!" I'll probably have 4 reservations in my extended family alone.
Think of this another way. You think the BMW 7 or Audi A8 is superior to the Model S. We disagree on that, but for a second lets pretend that is true. Look at how many people currently driving Prius or non-large premium sedan stretched to buy a Model S that would NEVER have plunked down the same money for either of those other cars. I'm in that category for sure--my Model S is 2X as much as I've ever spent on another car. People buying a Model 3 will be more price sensitive for sure, but then again, the differential will be much lower. Given the jump from a Prius to a BMW 3 (which most of those people would have never have bought anyway even though they could afford it) will be jumping to Tesla Model 3. That has to really annoy BMW, but they probably already know given internal surveys and exposure to that market with their i series.
@redstock: "no loaner car available that is very bad for those who only have 1 car" If there is no Tesla loaner available, Tesla rents you a car.
I've done a lot of work in Mexico City and the wealth there is staggering. The difference is, the gap between the wealthy and poor seems to be more stark than in the United States. But don't kid yourself, there are plenty of people down there that can afford a Tesla Model S. Carlos Slim isn't the only rich guy in Mexico. In fact, there are already plenty of gray market imported cars already there.
@winfield100: "Ralph" is Keith Leech, a retired engineer from Australia living in Sydney, NSW. He uses aliases online like Keef Wivaneff and Ralph Vader and likes to think he is a 'green scam' crusader. You can see some of his work here:
http://bit.ly/1mMeBI4
http://amzn.to/1YNHto8
http://bit.ly/1YNHs3m
http://bit.ly/1Q9EDai
@cptamerica: Two points:
1) My official referral short link is http://ts.la/stephen8299 which resolves to http://bit.ly/1YNGcNV . The entire purpose of the referral program is to 'refer' people to the Tesla site to buy a car so of course it will have Tesla in the name.
2) You do raise an interesting point about using other's trademarks in AdWords. Technically I think these AdWord buyers are violating Tesla's trademark (certainly they didn't ask permissions before they did it). However, why would Tesla want to try and stop them? They are spending money to try to get others to buy a Tesla. Seems like something Tesla would not want to discourage. However, as a practical matter, it has been very difficult for trademark owners to prohibit use of trademarks in Google Ads to the point that most people have stopped trying. See:
http://bit.ly/1YNGd4b
@78silverannvette Exactly. Ralph Vader / Keith Leech loves to grab such posts. Green Mountain could have 100k happy customers but Keith will find the one that doesn't understand kWh and posts a rant to a forum completely devoid of the detailed energy used from month to month that resulted in the bill that was generated.
@Ralph Vader / Keith Leech: Because you are being daft (as usual), I'll clarify: Norway doesn't want Norwegians to buy ICE cars. Norway uses their hydrocarbon production to generate hard currency for Norway and would prefer to sell every drop outside of Norway. Hence the tax policy to discourage domestic ICE sales.
@Immigrant Financial: Minor correction, Tesla isn't giving out $1k for referrals under the program that expires 31 Dec 2015. The purchaser gets the $1k discount and the referrer can qualify for things like Gigafactory opening and Model 3 unveil. This makes the program legal in the states that were having a hissy fit that the referrer program wasn't legal in their state.
@Paulo: Just... stop. Owners have been buying AdWords from day one when the referrals started. There is nothing new here. I personally believe this is against the spirit of the program, and if someone won that used that tactic, my guess is Tesla would have disallowed the free car. But they aren't going to stop people from getting them 'free' orders. By contrast, the European winner of the Model X (Bjorn Nyland) got his through his large following of his YouTube videos and his win was well deserved.
@Jmar705: Perhaps you are unaware that it is the Federal Government providing the $7500 tax credit, not Tesla. Certainly it isn't "Tesla offering a discount off the list price of a car". As for Norway and Denmark, there is a penalty for buying ICE vehicles, not a 'discount' for electric ones. A Tesla costs the same amount in Norway as it does in the US. It isn't Tesla's fault that a BMW M5 costs double, it is Norway deciding they don't want people to buy gasoline vehicles anymore and penalizing them heavily when they do.
@solucky: "Loaners for sale" Hate to break it to you, but this was the Tesla policy from day one. My local service center kept getting their cars sold out from under them. As an owner, this was slightly annoying (as the service center would sometimes supply a gasoline loaner), but as a shareholder I'm fine with it. Demand is a good thing. Sometimes people need a car right away, and without dealers, people might not be able to wait. Loaners sales allowed Tesla to meet the demand with a quick turnaround. As production increases, Tesla can make more loaners while at the same time meeting current demand, but it doesn't mean Tesla doesn't still sell the loaners when someone wants a car immediately and the loaner is close to or exactly what the person would order. Also, because the loaners aren't titled, they are still eligible for the $7500 federal tax credit.
@potpie: I'm just providing a counterpoint to the folks who try to denigrate the car and try to imply it isn't fun to drive, which couldn't be further from the truth.
@The Struggling Millennial As a Model S owner, I don't miss the VROOM. I drove back and forth to Austin from Houston over the Thanksgiving holiday, and the Model S is loads of fun on that drive. I love being able to silently slingshot around a bunch of people driving slow in the left lane. Poor Mustang tried to keep up with me for a while...