George, The Ycharts don't include the remarkable quarter just reported and change the story. Consider: 30 million to 560 million in revenue y/y and -90 million to 11 million net income q/q. Nose bleed valuation - sure. But this one quarter is extraordinary. Steve
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Last year BKE gave an extra large special dividend, $255 million, far above their "usual" $140 to $150 million, because they - and everyone else for that matter - believed dividends would be treated as ordinary income come 2013. Future special dividends likely will return to the $140 to $150 million range.
BKE decides specials by cash on hand, free cash flow, and retained earnings - not by net income.
Heads: Apple Short Sellers Win, Tails: Apple Shareholders Lose [View article]
Always enjoy your articles. Agree - we haven't seen a wash-out yet. Still too many people devoted to the stock. I do disagree with your trust in 2014 earnings estimates. Analyst consensus is too high. That is what the market is telling us.
Analysts Will Move Toll Brothers Higher [View article]
Robinson,
We have five or six homebuilders reporting this week from Ryland to Pulte. It is likely they will tell a good story -- each time boosting Toll. By the time, Toll reports in May your position will be very difficult.
Analysts Will Move Toll Brothers Higher [View article]
June1234, There was very good reason for them to have pulled back. Now, the pull back is a very good reason for them to recover, especially Toll. Steve
Michael, note the narrow range of predicted 2008-2012 average selling prices of $20,000 to $25,000 - Toll either beat or came at the top of its guidance 4 out of the 5 years.
As to homes delivered, Toll gave correct guidance. Your note implies I left out 2009 numbers - please look at the table - they're there. Making their outlook during the housing debacle is impressive. By the way, they have lately been forecasting tighter ranges of 750 to 800 homes.
Michael, if you'd read the conference call, you'd realize that inventory is high because of aggressive land purchases in expectation of increasing demand - however, THAT WOULD TAKE EIGHTH GRADE READING SKILLS.
Housing Stocks: Will A Buy Low And Sell Higher P/E Strategy Work? [View article]
Thanks for the prompt reply. I really enjoy your articles, George. Great work.
After removing the income tax benefit for Toll, EPS would have been about 45 cents rather than $2.86. Analysts expect 73 cents for 2013 and $1.38 for 2014 - a nice climb from the 45 cents. Most likely estimates are too low. When Toll gets cranking, operating margins will likely revert to their 2005 19 to 20% level.
Housing Stocks: Will A Buy Low And Sell Higher P/E Strategy Work? [View article]
Current low PE valuations for these four housing stocks are due to income tax benefits related to the reversal of deferred tax asset valuation allowances. Strip out these one-time events out and this year's low PEs would be much higher than the forward PEs.
Spring Planting And Pruning: The Buckle? [View article]
Richard, Thanks for the plug.
BKE outperformed XRT and SPY for years 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 from April to August. BKE's sell-offs from April to August had much to do with general market sentiment rather than because of any shortfall in earnings or revenue.
BKE does a lot more than "hang around" after the Xmas season. Q1 through Q3 contributes substantially to BKE's bottom line. The company makes 2/3 of its money from February to November.
Toll Brothers' Crystal Ball [View article]
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The Ycharts don't include the remarkable quarter just reported and change the story.
Consider: 30 million to 560 million in revenue y/y and -90 million to 11 million net income q/q.
Nose bleed valuation - sure. But this one quarter is extraordinary.
Steve
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This Company Is Killing It In Retail [View article]
BKE decides specials by cash on hand, free cash flow, and retained earnings - not by net income.
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Heads: Apple Short Sellers Win, Tails: Apple Shareholders Lose [View article]
Analysts Will Move Toll Brothers Higher [View article]
We have five or six homebuilders reporting this week from Ryland to Pulte. It is likely they will tell a good story -- each time boosting Toll. By the time, Toll reports in May your position will be very difficult.
Analysts Will Move Toll Brothers Higher [View article]
Analysts Will Move Toll Brothers Higher [View article]
There was very good reason for them to have pulled back. Now, the pull back is a very good reason for them to recover, especially Toll.
Steve
Toll Brothers' Crystal Ball [View article]
As to homes delivered, Toll gave correct guidance. Your note implies I left out 2009 numbers - please look at the table - they're there. Making their outlook during the housing debacle is impressive. By the way, they have lately been forecasting tighter ranges of 750 to 800 homes.
Michael, if you'd read the conference call, you'd realize that inventory is high because of aggressive land purchases in expectation of increasing demand - however, THAT WOULD TAKE EIGHTH GRADE READING SKILLS.
According To The Analysts, The Stock Market Is Near The Top [View article]
Housing Stocks: Will A Buy Low And Sell Higher P/E Strategy Work? [View article]
After removing the income tax benefit for Toll, EPS would have been about 45 cents rather than $2.86. Analysts expect 73 cents for 2013 and $1.38 for 2014 - a nice climb from the 45 cents. Most likely estimates are too low. When Toll gets cranking, operating margins will likely revert to their 2005 19 to 20% level.
Housing Stocks: Will A Buy Low And Sell Higher P/E Strategy Work? [View article]
Apple - It's All About Earnings [View article]
Spring Planting And Pruning: The Buckle? [View article]
Thanks for the plug.
BKE outperformed XRT and SPY for years 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 from April to August. BKE's sell-offs from April to August had much to do with general market sentiment rather than because of any shortfall in earnings or revenue.
BKE does a lot more than "hang around" after the Xmas season. Q1 through Q3 contributes substantially to BKE's bottom line. The company makes 2/3 of its money from February to November.