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Stephen Rosenman  

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  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    For what it's worth, the Kinder family of stocks have held BBB- ratings since the 90s.

    KMI will pay $2 this year - and likely more the next. By then, the investing conversation will have changed - maybe oil will be higher, maybe long-term interest rates stabilize, maybe Kinder makes a transformational acquisition. My advice: Collect your dividend and let them reinvest - and, in a year or two, energy transport companies will have returned to favor.

    If you ever checked KMI's pattern of trading (the defunct MLP's graphs have unfortunately disappeared), that's what happens.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:22 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Bancshares: Master Of The Deal [View article]
    HOMB just delivered superb numbers, particularly the 5.6% organic loan growth Q over Q - supplying the one "missing ingredient".
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Third Hidden Asset [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.

    It is unlikely OZRK could ever monetize its branch properties. However, investors worry about the stock's high P:TBV. I believe the company's hidden assets - premise undervaluation, committed CRE and RESI, and aggressively marked down purchased loan portfolio - renders the TBV on the balance sheet meaningless.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Gain Exposure To Gold, Silver And Copper Without Capital Risk [View article]
    Thanks, Accident, you are absolutely correct.
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Bancshares: Master Of The Deal [View article]
    Greg,

    ROE (TTM) is up YOY, although a better fundamental to follow is ROTE because of mergers. ROTE is 18.99%.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Bancshares: Master Of The Deal [View article]
    Thanks for your interest.

    1. About 30 bp is residual covered loans, the rest is HOMB's emphasis on higher yielding CRE and construction.
    Management doesn't take on much credit risk.

    2. So far, pretty meager organic growth which I alluded to in my final paragraph. The bank just bought a New York LPO with a strong track record with $300 million CRE loan in place 6% yield and 50% loan-to-cost. The LPO used to do $1.6 billion but stopped because the parent failed miserably outside of New York. I expect this LPO will be a growth driver (and keep yields up).

    HOMB bought Liberty in 2013 which added $2.8 billion in assets on to its then $4.2 billion frame using all stock. The stock at that time backed $655 million of their own assets, so this was a beautiful purchase. Liberty was a 0.8 ROA bank and the division now is a 1.7.

    You are right about strong stock - makes lots of deals accretive. As HOMB is willing and able to buy other banks, it can lever assets. Then brings in efficiencies and scale and moves ROA up.
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avago Technologies: Growing By Acquisition [View article]
    Quarter revenue up 130% y/y.
    Jun 24, 2015. 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Gain Exposure To Gold, Silver And Copper Without Capital Risk [View article]
    Copper and silver also did poorly during each of those periods. In fact, from 1980 until 2001, gold and silver were an unmitigated disaster. I remember: Silver went from $25 to $5. Gold went from $1250 to $250.

    The nice thing about the CD is you would have lost nothing.

    The cost for zero loss is less upside. Maybe not a bad trade off.

    And if all the gold bugs lose big, you can always boast you bet on the yellow metal and lost nothing.
    Jun 22, 2015. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    Ozarks has made over half of its loans outside of Arkansas since 2008. It's been in Texas since 2004.

    You may have missed the multi-state footprint. This is a regional going national story.

    By the way, the NY LPO originated $460mm - the rest are largely from the Intervest deal.
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Gain Exposure To Gold, Silver And Copper Without Capital Risk [View article]
    If you bought gold in 1980, you would have lost half your position by 1985. More recently, buyers in 2012 at $1750 got scorched - gold is at $1180.

    Don't suggest you buy the CD (I'm not) but it is intriguing. Kind of appealing - you can't lose any principle. You get the chance to get decent upside from a usually dull investment with zero risk of loss. Of course, the trade off is a 5 year lock-in with a manicured profit.
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    They certainly are very different post 2008.

    2008 - No subprime.
    2009 - Loaded up on gov't securities at average 8% yields. Who else did that?
    2009-2010 - Acquired 7 FDIC-assisted failed bank at over $100 million discount. How many other banks did that?
    2011- Acquired 7 "live" banks in Arkansas, Texas, and states entered via FDIC transactions. All mergers have been accretive to TBV/share and EPS. How many banks do you know can claim that?
    2014- Added LPOs in Texas, NY and LA. Their LPO model was established in Texas in 2004 and has maintained low NPL%s.

    Additionally, kept industry-low net charge-offs all along the way.

    Attention to risk with 50% LTV.

    I'd say Ozarks is anything but a "weed". This is called taking market share while the rest of banking snoozes.
    Jun 22, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Gain Exposure To Gold, Silver And Copper Without Capital Risk [View article]
    The price you pay not to lose 54.3%.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    These loans are secured by the real estate itself.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    Loonsong,

    Agree with reaching your price target in less than a year. Also look for Ozarks to split again as approaches the low 50s.
    Jun 21, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    As far as I know, Intervest was not a major contributor. The unfunded closed pool originates almost entirely from Ozarks' RESG loan production offices.

    Ozarks aggressively writes down the acquired portfolio. Only $14 million out of $2 billion are impaired.
    Jun 21, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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