Stephen Rosenman

Three Factors that Will Drive New Home Sales

clreed1252 and 58robbo:

The point of the piece is that new home sales are depressed far below anything that has been seen in most of our lifetimes. If you go back through new home sales records that have been kept (about 46 years), it is hard to find anything similar. If you take into account the growth of the U.S. population, the numbers are even more startling. Were new home sales to rise to levels seen at any time in the 1960s or 70s, the builders' revenues would be tremendous. Whether a return to more normal sales will occur because of tax credit extensions, low rates, or simply population pressures, who cares? Quite simply, they will. Short term influences may do the job quickly; if not, certainly longer term pressures will move these sales back at least to those which held firmly for the last 45 years. Currently the eleven largest publicly traded builders account for about 17% of residential building. Their share prices have been smashed. I don't think that will continue.

Alcon Delivers, Moves Ever Closer to $181

ACL up 0.05%
Its closest eye competitor Allergan (AGN) down 4.87%
ACL's great quarter buried in an ugly market today in which QQQQ down 2.24%, SPY down 1.89%.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Jason:
I've been extremely bullish on AAPL and still am. However, $500 a share would put AAPL's market cap at $451 billion, eclipsing even XOM which is the leader in cap at $357 billion. Still quite a stretch regardless of gaining 10% market share.

Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500 (Part 1)

Jason:
I've been extremely bullish on AAPL and still am. However, $500 a share would put AAPL's market cap at $451 billion, eclipsing even XOM which is the leader in cap at $357 billion. Still quite a stretch regardless of gaining 10% market share.

It's All About Apple's R&D

utopianzhere: Apple spent $400 million + a year in total R&D. R&D as a percentage of income was far lower than listed techs.

Copper's Run Over

I've been amazed that copper prices have not fallen further in view of increasing LME stockpiles. The prolonged negative MACD and RSI has barely affected copper pricing. They should have killed copper. Makes me think that it is going to take an awful lot to bring price down. Speculators very entrenched. No position.

'Dog' Beazer Homes Outrunning the Pack

User:
They don't have to pay off all 1.5 billion. They just have to decrease it. Since June 30, they removed $255 million in bonds for a net increase in equity of $73 million. Each time they buy back high priced debt, they decrease that $1.5 billion, and, at the same time, they increase equity. The key will be an improving debt to equity ratio. It will make BZH more appetizing for banks to lend at more favorable rates. Look at what has already happened: 20% rates have declined to 13% in 6 weeks, still a high rate but a remarkable improvement. Now we have banks lending $250 million to BZH at 12%, something impossible 2 months ago. I expect the process repeats kicking rates lower.
Eventually, I expect BZH does a secondary offering at much higher stock levels and recapitalizes much the same as banks are doing now. Again, not too long ago, no one would have expected banks to be able to do that and still drive their share prices higher. Of course, the take down of debt and rebuilding of equity will buy BZH time until housing recovers. Thus, the start of the virtuous circle.

Ten Year Treasury Note: A Terrible Investment

For those who are not active investors, where would you put your money? Bruce, I am thinking of the average person here. Thank you.

Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors

You base your argument on FCF. I pointed out earlier that Apple has accelerating FCF. Your 15% FCF is fantasy and has no baring on Apple's last 4 years. You predicate your argument on faulty data. Why write an article that uses invalid numbers to justify a sell on Apple?

Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors

FCF: 2006 - 1.56 billion; 2007 - 4.7 billion; 2008 - 8.5 billion; TTM - 10.2 billion. I see FCF growth rate far greater than 15%, don't you?

Is Copper Running Out of Steam?

Paul,
Thanks for the insightful article.
What's also interesting is that FCX's MACD is trying to pierce through EMA. It's hit it twice in the last couple of days. The last time it broke through the stock price crashed. FCX momentum is going negative.

Beazer Homes: Buy the Biggest Dog and Teach It to Run

FLbuilder: You miss the point. The market right now loves this dog, fleas and all (I'm all all itchy thinking about them), and, sure, it's the worst of the worst, right. That's the point. But, it's not going bankrupt (you're wrong there). You can hop on the dog, along with the other fleas, and ride this up. Will they need to do a secondary when the stock reaches 11? Maybe, probably. And they'll buy back more debt on the cheap when they price the secondary at 10.25. Remember the key: this stock was $80, housing's coming back, BZH ain't going away. You can look at ten other sectors and see what has happened to the most awful companies, the road kill, the left-for-dead: LZB, ANN, LDSH. Once the market decides they aren't going under, up they go at a much faster pace than their peers.

Is Unemployment Improving or Are People Dropping Out of the Labor Force?

Most wall streeters and number crunchers forget that everybody else lives in the real world. If you can't get a "job", you get an alternative one i.e. enter the underground economy -- construction, taxi, nanny, family business, cleaning service, landscaping. Every single article misses this. Here you get to receive benefits, fed subsidies and no taxes/reporting. Unemployment benefits + Unreported wages = Not bad. The loser: the tax base. Rising unemployment misses the shift to the underground economy which is alive and well, in fact, burgeoning.

'Total Unemplyoment' July 2009

Unemployment numbers and the "spread" disregards the underground economy: those who now work for relatives, construction, lawn services, tutors, nannies. The market doesn't look at these in large part because the statistics are bad; these "workers" don't want to be counted. Many of those underemployed and unemployed are working under the counter.

Q4 Results: The Long Term Case for Procter & Gamble

Fair enough.
How do you view PG's foray into beauty products? Not so sure that is the right move. I'm also wondering whether selling Folger's to SJM was such a good move. Look at the strong profits that brought to SJM. I think it turned out that they sold their best not worst division. Thoughts?