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Stephen Rosenman

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  • The Buckle: Upside On Special Dividends, Margins, And Upgrades [View article]
    I haven't heard anything to indicate a Nelson retirement. For my money, Karen Rhoads is incredible - she is my favorite CFO of all the companies I follow.
    As for #2: Buckle moves carefully when it expands. Most states don't have Buckle yet. I don't think Buckle has run out of locations. They usually go into busy malls and there are plenty of those.
    Mar 22 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks: Powerful Acquisition Strategy [View article]
    You are spot on. He is a remarkable CEO. He has tremendous judgement. He has been able to keep the bank profitable and growing despite some terrible economic time. And he is very dedicated: He continues to work 80- hour weeks.
    Mar 15 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Limited Brands: The Balance Sheet Needs Repairing [View article]
    LTD has underperformed the XLY and SPY since their December special dividend by about 12 to 8%. Not enough punishment for the balance sheet tear up, but they are in the penalty box nonetheless.
    Mar 10 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris Is Not Too Expensive [View article]
    Agree. PM is an international tobacco and needs to be judged against its real competitors: BTI, JAPAF, and ITYBY.
    Mar 10 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetSmart's Earnings: Oops [View article]
    Gsterling,
    You misread the article's intent.
    The takeaways of the piece:
    1. My prediction was correct. PETM needed a correction. The analysts and shareholders were way too exuberant.
    2. High expectation played a big role. That's been crushed.

    Frankly, now that PETM has come in, it's looking a bit appetizing.

    By the way, there were no misstatements.

    1. Your comment about beating 2012's outlook has nothing to do with the article.
    2. Credit Suisse did make that statement in the call.
    3. The CFO noted "So traffic is not as strong as it was." He and I are referring to the quarter reported. You are talking to the start of this quarter.
    4. No misstatements here. I expect margins to erode. They haven't yet.
    Mar 7 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Sell? Look Who's Trying To Dump J.C. Penney [View article]
    The "Big Brains" wrecked what little was left at JCP.

    Why they decided to totally revamp the company is beyond me. Better inventory management, incentivizing staff, improving store appearance, closing underperforming stores and maybe trying out Johnson's ideas in a few model stores...that was the way to go.
    Mar 5 12:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Late To Sell? Look Who's Trying To Dump J.C. Penney [View article]
    Pershing Square held 39 million shares as reported in February 2011. So far, there strategy hasn't worked. Shares traded at $37 back in Feb 2011; now JCP goes for $15. They've owned the same shares for over 2 years and lost more than half their position.

    In contrast, had they sold on my sell recommendation last March, they would have saved themselves over $800 million or 60% of their holding.
    Mar 5 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetSmart Due For A Correction [View article]
    awk78,

    PETM 18 full-time and 22 part-time employees a store while TSCO has 8 full-time employees a store. PETM would need more service staff but that much more? PETM is overstaffed with support and store workforce. Further support: PETM's revenue per employee is $130,000; TSCO's is $284,000.
    Feb 23 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: Replacing The MLPs In My IRA, Part 2 [View article]
    NYCB is not a new issue. It's been around since the 1859 and publicly traded forever.
    It changed its stock symbol from NYB to NYCB a few quarters ago, possibly that's why you thought it was an IPO.
    Feb 12 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney And Sears: More Museum Than Store [View article]
    The metric is DII rather than the inventory found on the balance sheet. DII measures inventory turnover. It's a calculation of average inventory divided by COGS and can be found on Morningstar.com.
    Feb 8 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Company Is Killing It In Retail [View article]
    BKE is one of my favorites, great special dividend and superb shareholder-friendly management.

    ANF has very high gross margins because occupancy costs are included in SG&A while BKE, AEO, and ARO account for them in cost of sales.

    Also, BKE gave a $4.50 special dividend in December, not $6.00.

    Feb 7 06:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney And Sears: More Museum Than Store [View article]
    Zeus2012,

    Similar criticisms to yours were made when I published my predictions a year ago.
    However, using DII, I was able to predict the stock movements of 5 stocks a year out.
    Feb 6 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
    Great article. I agree with your analysis.
    Feb 1 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing - How Will The Profits Hold Up? [View article]
    GarryGR,
    Thanks for the information.
    The article discusses deliveries, not orders.
    You'll note that, in Dec 2012 quarter, Boeing delivered 23 787s and 105 737s while in Dec 2011 quarter, Boeing delivered 2 787s and 91 737s.
    Yet, despite delivering a much greater number of the more expensive 787s, average aircraft profits dropped by $1.86 million a plane.
    While there are lots of moving parts (plane mix, timing of payments), the unit profit trend is not good.
    Feb 1 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing - How Will The Profits Hold Up? [View article]
    Some may be mix of product sold but the trend is concerning that the actual profit on each plane is declining.
    Feb 1 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
535 Comments
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