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Stephen Rosenman  

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  • The Bull Market in Dry Bulk Shipping [View article]
    coprophagus,
    BALT still has no debt.
    To purchase their 4 Supramax and 2 Capes, they will spend $284 million. They have raised approximately $300 million between their IPO and GNK contributions. No other dry bulker has new vessels at this price with no debt. This particular bulker is well placed.
    Daniel,
    The group usually follows closely the BDI. For the last 3 months, the group has lagged the rising BDI. This is in part due to debt loads and stock dilution. A further rise in the BDI will pull the boats along. However, I think investors need to start "fresh" with BALT to avoid both the debt and stock dilution baggage.


    t
    May 17, 2010. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Freight Volumes Begin to Level Off [View article]
    Wildebeast,
    I am puzzled. The report indicates a continuing improvement over comparable week 2009. Carloads, intermodals both over 14% and ton miles up over 16%. Metallic up over 200%, coke up over 120% for example. Seems to me the industry is not seeing a leveling off in commerce.

    WASHINGTON, D.C. - May 13, 2010 - he Association of American Railroads today reported that for the week ended May 8, 2010, U.S. freight railroads continued to experience traffic gains for the 11th consecutive week. U.S. railroads originated 288,905 carloads last week, up 14.7 percent from the comparable week in 2009.
    May 17, 2010. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fear Isn't Likely to Kill the Economy [View article]
    Very few pundits have been right this year. Scott has been 100% right in his accessments. He called the bottom in March 2009 and has been correctly bullish about rising equities all along the way. Please look at every other popular SeekingAlpha author with over 500 readers. You are going to be hard pressed to find one who has had as stellar a record. For the most part, the comments these past 13 months have been extremely negative and have proven dead wrong. Following his advice would have kept you long equities and produced fabulous gains.
    May 8, 2010. 06:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for Buying Dry Bulk Shipping [View article]
    Today, spot rates for Capes jumped over 12%. That's on top of the earlier rally in rates, proving once again that 170,000 DWT vessels are more valuable than 50,000 DWT ones. Hopefully, readers have bought GNK and BALT, which are up nicely since the article.
    Apr 28, 2010. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Homebuilder Is Strongest? [View article]
    User,
    Agree that the potential for outperformance for BZH is incredible. The point of the piece was to highlight the extraordinary and unique gaining of market share for DHI. No other builder shares that characteristic. With a decent balance sheet and cash coming back from NOL, this is a nice play for the "conservative" investor. Less down side risk and, yet, an opportunity for substantial upside. I, too, am long BZH.
    Numbers,
    DHI's debt/cap (net cash out) is 28%, not bad leverage for the group.
    Apr 26, 2010. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prime Time: Hudson City Bancorp Non-Performance [View article]
    Sold At The Top has been negative on the banks and the recovery for almost a year now. Each article this last year has predicted the collapse of the financial world. If you followed his advice this last year, you would have missed the whole market move off Dow 6500.
    HCBK did not sell because of nonperforming loans as argued in the piece. HCBK's NPL numbers are far better than the vast majority of banks. The stock went down for 3 reasons: the market hoped for a dividend boost (something that didn't materialize), the company hasn't taken over a failed bank (Mr. Hermance has foresworn that move), and the company manufactured its tepid beat through a gain of $31 million by selling securities. HCBK's problem is not busted loans; rather, it has been too conservative when the market is looking for a bit of daring.
    Apr 25, 2010. 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Top Corporate Tax Evaders [View article]
    Guys,
    CVX also paid an additional $18 billion in taxes aside from its U.S. and international income taxes. Of the $18 billion, $4.5 billion went for U.S. excise taxes, and another $1 billion for a variety of other U.S. taxes. In all, CVX paid $26 billion in total taxes of all varieties. They made $11 billion in 2009 net income. I can't see how CVX has been profligate in paying taxes. If they paid say another $5 billion to the U.S., one might argue it would be better to nationalize them and avoid all the paper work.
    Apr 15, 2010. 12:59 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Baltic Dry Index Falling if World Is Recovering? [View article]
    Geez and jbde,
    Remember the BDI covers the 26 most widely traveled routes. Capes make up approximately 46% of the index (C1 to C12 routes) while Handis are about 9%.
    Capes can't go lots of places. Smaller ships can. There is a whole lot bigger world to shipping than that. The pricing for supramaxes and handimaxes tell a more accurate story.
    Apr 15, 2010. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Baltic Dry Index Falling if World Is Recovering? [View article]
    Daniel,
    Thanks for the kind comments. As to which dry bulkers stand to benefit, next article.
    Apr 14, 2010. 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is a Boom in U.S. Homebuilding Coming? [View article]
    Don't feel bad. Those who suggest buying the homebuilders get lots of negative feedback.
    It's nice to see someone else willing to take a chance on the most vilified industry in the market.
    The home building industry has indeed been decimated.
    However, as you start to analyze the publicly traded homebuilders, you will realize that most of them are actually in not bad shape. In fact, many of them predict profitability this year.
    If you want incredible bargains, you go there.
    They actually have performed quite well this year, although I suspect they have multiyear out performance ahead.
    Apr 12, 2010. 05:12 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Trajectory [View article]
    Dear Doc Poly,
    These last 2 years the law has held up. Wonder what you would have said about Moore in 1966?

    Dear Gautam0686,
    Jobs nixed the idea of using their bountiful cash on buy backs or dividends. He left open the possibility of a very big acquisition. Who knows? In a couple of years, he could use some of the cash to buy MSFT. (A case of retribution for Gates slights in the past?)
    Apr 10, 2010. 04:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Trajectory [View article]
    George,
    Apple's cash, short investments, and long term investments are often equated with cash. See below articles for confirmation. In addition, if you go to SEC documents, you will see their long term holdings are comprised of long term Treasuries and high grade corporates. They don't do "risk". They are crazily conservative in their holdings. Used to be Steve wouldn't even trust Treasuries longer than 3 years. Luckily, he's mellowed into longer term AAA and AA rateds.
    So lighten up. (I do hope you didn't lose too much shorting AAPL this month.) To summarize, the "Law" stands.


    Business Week: Almost $40 Billion In Cash: What Is Apple Waiting For? (www.businessweek.com/t...)
    Reuter's: Feb 26, 2010 ... CUPERTINO, California (Reuters) - Steve Jobs defended Apple Inc's decision to maintain a $40 billion cash pile
    (reuters.com/article/id...)
    Apple's current stock valuation includes that $40B cash hoard (tuaw.com/.../on-apples...- dividends-or/)
    Apr 9, 2010. 03:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple vs. Research in Motion: Which Stock Is a Better Buy? [View article]
    Roger,
    RIMM and AAPL sold 10.5 and 8.74 million smart phones for their last quarters respectively. Those are worldwide sales. In contrast, Canalys data is for North America alone.
    In addition, RIMM's quarter covers 12/09 thru 2/10, AAPL's 10/09 thru 12/09. The revenue/phone gives a rough idea of pricing of phones.
    I presented Canalys's data primarily to show RIMM's market share in the U.S. Their forecast may or may not come true as to this year's phone sales.
    Apr 4, 2010. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moly: Best Metal of the Decade [View article]
    Let's hope you're right about Mosquito.
    Mar 22, 2010. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ExxonMobil: No Brainer or Puzzler? [View article]
    Tom,
    The problem I have with big oil is their enormous tax load. In 2009, XOM made $19 billion on $302 billion. Their 10K indicates they paid a total of $79 billion in income taxes, sales taxes, other taxes and duties, and that's way down from 2008 and 2007. The majors are about the most heavily taxed sector in the market. In addition, the administration that has demonized XOM is unlikely to give it any slack. The upside has more to do with the price of oil. There are easier ways to play this market.
    Mar 12, 2010. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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