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Stephen Rosenman

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  • America Movil Benefits from Forex [View article]
    Plot FXM and UUP over the last year. FXM is still down 28% versus UUP from last year. UUP has been trading down as buyers flee the dollar and move to any currency but. FXM's weakness was extraordinary, way oversold. That's why FXM improves versus the dollar.
    Jul 25, 2009. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enormous Downside Risk for Stocks [View article]
    I think you underestimate the momentum we're seeing into stocks after the last correction.
    Already, since this was written, we've broken through June resistance and moved above the long term down trend of May 2008 (I'm presuming you're speaking of 2008).
    In addition, the earnings being presented are quite good which bring investors in. Apple deserves its rise. Investors are pleased with GAAP earnings of $1.35 but, I suspect, are not looking closely at the bigger story of nonGAAP $2.14.
    You're previous predictions of a crash have been not fulfilled. I believe you will again be wrong in this prediction.
    Jul 23, 2009. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson City Bancorp Meets Estimates [View article]
    I'm puzzled. HCBK earned 26 cents according to their published quarter. Why 24 cents?
    Jul 22, 2009. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Isn't the Dollar Falling? [View article]
    Interesting. However, I think FXC and FXA move higher against $USD because they have the equivalent of "gold" within their borders: iron (FXA) and oil, nickel, copper, gold (FXC).
    Jul 20, 2009. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper ETFs: How China Controls Their Fate [View article]
    Thank you for the interesting post. China has been an important driver of copper. I don't think their buying is done because their infrastructure stimulus is so large. They've been adding to it with iron and nickel. Iron is a far bigger cost for them which is in part why they have gone so on a limb over Rio Tinto and commercial "espionage". They are in a ravenous mode with 2 trillion in foreign currency and a country with tremendous demand for minerals. The buying goes on, not necessarily in a straight line, certainly not back to 2008 and 2007 levels. In addition, we're seeing even the U.S. starting to pick up with CME copper stores decreasing. Not all that copper and mineral buying will come from China; the rest of the world is coming on board.
    Jul 19, 2009. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loonie Falls to More Reasonable Levels - National Bank Financial [View article]

    Loonie is more than an oil play. Minerals should continue a nice run boosting the C$. Canadian banking is strong. Technically Loonie is poised for a nice bounce. For a while, it looked like a head and shoulders pattern would emerge; with today's action jump, that's off the table. Nice start to MCD. I suspect we make new highs and get true "reasonable" valuation.
    Jul 14, 2009. 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UUP: An Exact Replacement for USD/EUR [View article]
    You are correct. Most investors look at UUP as a trade against 6 other currencies. In fact, UUP behaves like USD/EUR. UDN is a near perfect match for FXE.
    Jul 12, 2009. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Same-Store Sales Disappointing for Retailers [View article]
    Thanks. It's nice to see monthly sales in one place. Would be a great help if you could post this monthly.
    Jul 10, 2009. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AT&T Is a Strong Growth Story [View article]
    True they have enough cash flow to cover. But look at their balance sheet: $134 billion in intangible assets. They have -$37 billion tangible equity. The company has $74 billion debt. Current assets $23 billion, liabilities $37 billion. The company never builds real equity with its cash flow. Once the music stops, ATT is in great danger. I believe that VZ and T in the next three years may be the next GM and Chrysler.
    Jul 9, 2009. 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stimulus or No Stimulus? [View article]
    Before we declare defeat, let's see what really is going on in the economy. We're going to find out over the next month as earnings get rolled out. Focusing on one month's job number (which was alot lower than the 600,000+ losses not too long ago) is not the answer. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised by improving earnings, the result of companies cutting, changing lines of business and better forex.
    Jul 8, 2009. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Is Wrong: Why NII Holdings Is a Buy [View article]
    Both AMX and NIHD have suffered largely because of unfavorable forex. The combination of an extraordinarily strong dollar and flimsy peso killed both of these companies over the last 2 quarters. AMX's growth was hidden beneath the forex pounding. Recent weakness in the dollar should allow AMX and NIHD stock prices to appreciate because their fundamental businesses are good. Zack's consensus for growth in NIHD seems to be very optimistic. Yahoo consensus puts estimates of 5 year growth at a little over 11% which would put the two companies on a similar trajectory.
    Jun 27, 2009. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Plea for Better Balance (Sheets) [View article]
    The lack of solid equity in companies is widespread. I chose M, BA, and VZ for the discussion. They are not unusual. Even "stalwarts" like IBM have negative tangible equity. What is worrisome is that many of these mature companies have deepening tangible equity holes. For example, VZ has dropped from a negative $13 billion to a negative $59 billion in a little over 2 years. It seems prudent to me that mature large companies would build their equity: cash, stock, property, factories. I have no problem with "paying up" for an acquisition. Once accomplished the acquirer should turn its attention to turning new business into real equity. Too often, companies merely to keep acquiring with total disregard of their balance sheets. You or I would be cut off. These companies instead are rewarded with renewed credit lines.
    Jun 21, 2009. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy, Sell or Hold? [View article]
    Apple's share price does not depend on sales growth. Rather, its price hinges on earnings. Nokia, for instance, increased its revenue from $34 billion to $58 billion over the last 3 years. Unfortunately, for Nokia, profit margins fell to 0.04%. Apple, in contrast, has not only grown revenue but driven net profit margins to 14.7% (and its iPhones which command greater margins have not yet been factored in). The author's thesis looks at only one variable (and not the key metric) to derive fair price.
    Jun 20, 2009. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion vs. Nokia [View article]
    Naveen: Thanks for the nice comparison. Eventually enough players will enter the smart phone arena that margins will thin out (that should be a few years out).
    Jun 19, 2009. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts Just Can't Support Copper [View article]
    NYMEX copper stores have been the odd man out when it comes to the direction of inventory. NYMEX stores have been going up in a straight line for many months while LME stores have been going down steadily. Copper pricing has ignored NYMEX instead focusing on LME. LME has been the prime driver of copper pricing because it it much larger than NYMEX stores and because it is further away from the U.S. housing debacle and closer to China buying. Housing seems to be bottoming in the U.S. and federal stimulus infrastructure is just starting. I expect NYMEX stores to begin to fall. Copper are a long way from their highs. International stimulus plans should continue to propel copper. In addition, miners have moth balled copper projects and are hesitant adding capacity.
    Jun 19, 2009. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment