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Stephen Rosenman

 
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  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    To lbrtkng: Per SEC 10K, BA has incurred an $8.4 billion pension liability, largely owing to over a $7 billion loss (read sour investments). Its pension overfunding has disappeared, a $5.9 billion gone. Therefore, the apples, oranges, together become one big tomato of a $13 billion + drop in equity.
    Where are those acquisitions on the balance sheet? More goodwill, intangibles, and plants.
    As to 2 points, the market usually compares year over year earnings. This is a comparison to year over year equity, its breakdown into components of the asset and balance sheet.
    Feb 13 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    Opa-opa: "Doom" title was chosen by Seeking Alpha, not me.
    The future for BA is dimmer in great part because it has lost a vast amount of its assets. For those of us who have followed this company, it's pretty sad. Back, in 2005, tangible equity was $8.5 billion.
    Now it's in the hole $6.8 billion. That's $15.3 billion in damages in 4 years! Who else could wreck so much equity and prosper?
    As to the future? Negative free cash flow, currency issues. higher salaries and health costs (from strike), customers walking or renegotiating contracts after BA's failure to deliver, decreased air travel, quality issues with fasteners, likely more 787 delays, pension plan pressure, all should create more than their share of problems for BA.
    Feb 12 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    tatertot: I wanted to dramatize the collapse of BA's assets in one year. The market totally ignored the balance sheet. It will take a herculean effort to repair the balance sheet. Also the investing public ignored the looming problem BA faces with its new pension plan problems: pension plan assets went from $5.9 billion positive to a $8.4 billion liability. Someone needs to fire the guy in charge of the pension plan.

    Note above remark is a swing of $13 billion in the pension plan.
    Feb 12 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    Tatertot: I wanted to dramatize the collapse of BA's assets in one year. The market totally ignored the balance sheet. It will take a herculean effort to repair the balance sheet. Also the investing public ignored the looming problem BA faces with its new pension plan problems: pension plan assets went from $5.9 billion to a $8.4 billion liability. Someone needs to fire the guy in charge of the pension plan.
    Feb 12 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Late Payments on Credit Cards Reach Record Levels [View article]
    Sites you site do not allow reader to enter. Not helpful. Your information adds little as well.
    Feb 6 07:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • R&D Costs of the Pfizer / Wyeth Deal [View article]
    What valuable research at either company?
    Seems to me both companies have been unable to bring much new into the picture.
    PFE seems to have spent its cash for a similar doddering company.
    Jan 30 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoran: Latest Update Is Reassuring [View article]
    FCX concerns: 1. Must pay a lot of dough to keep government of Indonesia, Peru and now Congo happy.
    2. Copper prices have recently stopped going down while LME inventories are inexorably rising. Copper prices should drop when faced with a glut in supply and no demand.
    3. No moly.
    4. Lots of costs shuttering mines. Why do Congo and close existing mines elsewhere? Looks like a mess to me.
    5. The only good thing I see is Grasberg gold but the company is now overdiversified since its acquisitions in copper and moly.
    No position although would consider a short here at some time.
    Jan 30 09:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries' True Risk [View article]
    If the Federal Reserve buys long term Treasuries to bring down interest rates, doesn't that work against your short position. Don't they bury you in the end? After all, as you say in your piece, they have unlimited firepower (the printing press).
    Jan 18 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Apple Predictions for 2009 [View article]
    It looks like part of prediction 3 has come true. Steve Jobs has confirmed that his weight loss is due to a loss of nutrients (a common result after pancreatic surgery).
    Jan 5 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Apple Predictions for 2009 [View article]
    To who: With so much cash why is it not put to good use?
    Answer: Would Apple have been wiser to have used its cash to buy back its shares when it reached $200? Last year lots of companies bought themselves when their stocks were far higher, leaving themselves a whole lot poorer and starved for cash.
    Would Apple have put their cash to good use by buying another company? Should they have taken a cue from Manitowec's purchase of Enodis. How about Macy's buying Mays? Think how BHP would have looked if it had succeeded in its quest of RTP?
    Or, what if Apple had handed out their cash in big dividends? Apple would be facing the mother of all recessions with a far weaker hand. It's nice to have more cash on hand than any bank out there.
    I'd say Apple has used its cash more wisely than most other companies out there.
    ( And, after all, they did launch the iPhone, iPod, iMac using a fraction of their money.)
    Jan 4 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's' Goodwill Is a Red Flag [View article]
    Macy's' hope currently rests on its EBITDA: its reworked credit facility is testament to that. But that hope is quickly becoming dashed. To kevinm, EV/EBITDA will rise end of Q4 2008 (unless market cap continues to plunge). EBITDA was $3.5 billion 2006, $3.4 billion 2007, $3.1 billion TTM. Q4 2007 wasn't a bad quarter for EBITDA. That will be replaced by what is working out to be a far weaker Q4 tol be reported 2008. To date, for last 3 quarters, EBITDA is $1.3 billion. Q4 2007 EBITDA was about $1.4. Q4 2008 will be far lower, probably $1.1. If M makes the same as last year Q4 (doubtful), EV/EBITDA is over 5.
    More likely, EV/EBITDA goes to $13.24/$2.4 = 5.5 (dismal compared to current 4.2).
    Dec 25 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Happening at Apple: Trade Shows [View article]
    Apple is a smart phone company now. It is no longer about selling computers to geeks. It is about selling to the "in" and "wealthy".
    Dec 22 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nordstrom's Lost Weekend: Bitter Weather to Kibosh Christmas Shopping [View article]
    My thoughts exactly. Don't forget the Northeast which lost power to over a million homes.
    Dec 14 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Auto Industry Watch: You Can't Get Different Results Doing the Same Thing [View article]
    A bail out without any change in cost structure will only postpone the pain. We will also be committed to putting more lost money out there and in the end either GM and Chrysler or the U.S. will go under.
    Dec 13 03:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Cancels Acquisition of Four Carriers - What Does it Mean for the Stock? [View article]
    when the shipping industry is doing well, George gives himself and his privately owned Cardiff sweet heart deals on the back of Dryships' shareholders. When the industry collapses, he unloads his mistakes onto Dryships. As you alluded to, shareholders have no recourse with a company based in the Marshall Islands. George is the 21st century pirate and I would not suggest doing business with him.
    Dec 12 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
618 Comments
408 Likes