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Stephen Rosenman  

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  • Why Teva's Dip on Earnings Is an Opportunity [View article]
    1. Copaxone represents 20% of TEVA's revenues. This proprietary product commands a much higher profit margin than most of its generic line. Thus, copaxone is extremely important to TEVA. Recently, several companies are trying to breach copaxone's patent. Any thoughts on whether TEVA will maintain the patent, and, if not, what will be the effect?
    2. TEVA's earnings are confusing because of their acquisition costs, amortizations, and legal costs. They ask investors to look at their non-GAAP rather than GAAP earnings to get a better picture of the company's financial future. Any idea as to when these costs will no longer be in the picture? When will GAAP represent TEVA properly?
    Feb 17, 2010. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molybdenum Poised for Massive Comeback - Thompson Creek a Way to Take Advantage [View article]
    4Tom: Moly prices are at $15. Not a bad price for the metal. LME begins the first ever moly futures market. There is a good chance moly will go higher as speculators buy the mineral. The other metals have climbed more. Moly should play catch up. The stock should go higher. If minerals correct, copper and gold stocks will get hit harder as these minerals have run more.
    TC sold off because of a non-cash charge they need to make as the company must use American rather than Canadian accounting, a nonissue and not a huge amount of money. The earnings will take that hit but it should be priced in.
    Feb 1, 2010. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings: Analysts Miss Apple's Key Metric [View article]
    KenC and dm1717: AAPL (along with all other smart phone carriers) has until Q1 2011 to adopt the new regulations. They can do so during any of the quarters from now until the start of next fiscal year. Since AAPL pushed for the change, it stands to reason that they will do so sooner than later.
    Jan 25, 2010. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Holdings: Strong Growth, Low Valuation [View article]
    The last 6 months this stock has been playing catch up with AMX, rising over 100% versus AMX 30%. If you look back over the last 3 years, AMX is up 14% versus NIHD loss of 36%. It is time for one of two things to happen: 1. AMX rises faster than NIHD or 2. both AMX and NIHD decrease with NIHD tumbling faster. Either way, AMX should outperform NIHD.
    Jan 8, 2010. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retailers Post Stronger than Expected December Same-Store Sales [View article]
    Thanks again. This is extremely helpful. Really appreciate your excellent work.
    Jan 7, 2010. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novartis Could Be the Biggest Loser in Alcon Deal with Nestle [View article]
    Interstock: NSRGY has a put option that they can exercise starting January 1. That is solely in NSRGY's hands.
    Dec 7, 2009. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Testing the Benjamin Graham Formula on Microsoft, Apple, Dolby Labs [View article]
    On August 14, you wrote an article on AAPL stating fair market value was $146 based on the DCF method. You indicated that AAPL was therefore overvalued. The stock rose above $200. Now you approach the stock using the above equation which again fails for several reasons: Apple must be valued in nonGAAP earnings (you understate EPS as a result which is really $9.67 nonGAAP trailing earnings) and higher earnings growth (analyst expectations for this stock have been consistently wrong).
    Dec 2, 2009. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Buckle: Steady Growth Through Conservative Management [View article]
    About a month ago, BKE surprised the market delivering a special dividend of $1.80 sending the stock up to almost $37. This was after the company had been tanking due to disappointing the market's expectations of same store sales. Part of the reason they did that unexpected special dividend was to "gain respect". Since the high, investors have backed off because they feel BKE has given out all the good news (and cash) and there is nothing left to own here. Remember that a large portion of the shares are owned by insiders who love dividends. It would be likely that BKE will boost its dividends this quarter or next to benefit holders and continue to "earn respect".
    Nov 17, 2009. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do Investors Continue to Pour Money into Bonds? [View article]
    Finally someone is differentiating the risks between holding individual bonds and bond funds. The first requires thought and the promise of a steady pay out while the second gets slaughtered by fees, interest moves and the vagaries of the market.
    Nov 13, 2009. 10:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Factors that Will Drive New Home Sales [View article]
    clreed1252 and 58robbo:

    The point of the piece is that new home sales are depressed far below anything that has been seen in most of our lifetimes. If you go back through new home sales records that have been kept (about 46 years), it is hard to find anything similar. If you take into account the growth of the U.S. population, the numbers are even more startling. Were new home sales to rise to levels seen at any time in the 1960s or 70s, the builders' revenues would be tremendous. Whether a return to more normal sales will occur because of tax credit extensions, low rates, or simply population pressures, who cares? Quite simply, they will. Short term influences may do the job quickly; if not, certainly longer term pressures will move these sales back at least to those which held firmly for the last 45 years. Currently the eleven largest publicly traded builders account for about 17% of residential building. Their share prices have been smashed. I don't think that will continue.
    Nov 4, 2009. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcon Delivers, Moves Ever Closer to $181 [View article]
    ACL up 0.05%
    Its closest eye competitor Allergan (AGN) down 4.87%
    ACL's great quarter buried in an ugly market today in which QQQQ down 2.24%, SPY down 1.89%.
    Oct 28, 2009. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    I've been extremely bullish on AAPL and still am. However, $500 a share would put AAPL's market cap at $451 billion, eclipsing even XOM which is the leader in cap at $357 billion. Still quite a stretch regardless of gaining 10% market share.
    Oct 23, 2009. 12:02 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    I've been extremely bullish on AAPL and still am. However, $500 a share would put AAPL's market cap at $451 billion, eclipsing even XOM which is the leader in cap at $357 billion. Still quite a stretch regardless of gaining 10% market share.
    Oct 22, 2009. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All About Apple's R&D [View article]
    utopianzhere: Apple spent $400 million + a year in total R&D. R&D as a percentage of income was far lower than listed techs.
    Oct 6, 2009. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper's Run Over [View article]
    I've been amazed that copper prices have not fallen further in view of increasing LME stockpiles. The prolonged negative MACD and RSI has barely affected copper pricing. They should have killed copper. Makes me think that it is going to take an awful lot to bring price down. Speculators very entrenched. No position.
    Sep 30, 2009. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment