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Stephen Rosenman  

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  • Equity Market's Slippery Slope [View article]
    The argument of the paper is that long bull markets end in very long and deep bear markets. This bear market should be especially deep and long because there had been an unusually long and rapid growth in equities. That extraordinary bull run had been marked by companies overreaching: overbuilding, taking on enormous debt, expanding too rapidly. That takes a long time to unwind. This government is trying desperately to shorten the process and ease the pain. It will be near impossible to reengineer the whole economy. The process naturally occurs over years and is painful. The bear markets that have been short (a few years) have occurred after brief bull markets. This one has been long overdue. No bull market has lasted so long without years of pain following.
    Mar 31, 2009. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market's Slippery Slope [View article]
    To proximo: (11500 - 840)/840/20 = 0.63. Average slope of 0.63 a year.
    To 970slashX: I think we're talking about different numbers. I am not figuring CAGR but rate of rise of the slope. What I think has confused readers is the %s given. They refer simply to slope.
    The slope and duration of the 1980 to 2007 bull market is similar to that of the Nikkei 1970 to 2000, Dow 1921 to 1929, and Nasdaq 1990 to 2000. The bear markets that followed those three bull markets were severe and prolonged. I believe those bear markets last a long time because equities were priced way beyond normal values. The historical rate of rise in slope has been 0.2 which would put the Dow still overvalued.
    Mar 31, 2009. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Take 20% of China Smartphones Market - BofA / Merrill [View article]
    Analysts have spent these past 2 years bashing Apple. They have low balled Apple's earnings and been proven wrong time and again.
    Scott Craig has been among those who have underestimated Apple's
    sales. It is significant that analysts are rethinking Apple's upside potential.
    Mar 28, 2009. 11:39 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Prices Leave S. American Producers Feeling Down [View article]
    LME stock piles for copper and zinc are going down. Even nickel looks like LME stores will start to drop. Nonferrous prices are climbing. Room for great optimism in the miners.
    Mar 10, 2009. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in Apple's Wallet? Cash [View article]
    relayer75: Unfortunately, Seeking Alpha typed a comma instead of a period.

    crazylegs: Please see my previous article for rising cash positions.
    Mar 9, 2009. 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: An Investment Market Update [View article]
    Gold bounced off its 50 day moving average. Technically a good sign. In addition, these last 8 day GLD trades have been seeing declining trading volumes, likely indicating that selling pressure is weakening. Another good sign.
    Mar 5, 2009. 12:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    To ba-fact-checker: Pension fund assets, net did go from $5.9 billion to almost zero. See their earnings release. This is, indeed, the amount that is overfunded as you know. BA has relied on its pension fund overfunding as an asset. It no longer can. Instead its pension fund liability grew as noted in the article. Again, as noted, the balance sheet has deteriorated greatly from a number of perspectives. Investors need to look at the loss in net assets in BA's balance sheet in order to determine how likely the company will thrive in today's difficult economic environment.
    Feb 21, 2009. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With a King's Ransom in Cash, Why Still No Buying Spree in the Tech Space? [View article]
    Steve Jobs in October 2008 said: "...we have almost $25 billion safely in the bank and zero debt. This provides us tremendous stability and the ability to invest our way through this downturn. This is what we did during the last downturn. We [increased] R&D investments and created some of our best new products and businesses, like the Apple retail stores for one."
    Apple is usually not a buyer of companies. Rather, it makes its own way through innovation. And it does it on a relatively low budget compared to other tech companies.
    In any case, a fool and his money are quickly parted. I don't think that Apple is a fool. What better time to sit on your cash.
    Feb 18, 2009. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How About a Piece of the Apple Pie? [View article]
    "Another worry that plagues many investors is whether Apple's heyday is behind it; that the company's phenomenal cycle of innovation now is a thing of the past. Perhaps. No one, me included, can really confirm that possibility."

    R&D has increased from $782 million to $1.1 billion year over year ending 9/08, a 41% increase. Last quarter's R&D rose from $246 million to $315 million (Q1 08 to Q1 09).
    Apple has made fantastic use of its R&D. The higher budgets indicate that Apple is not done innovating.

    Feb 16, 2009. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter and (Less) Gamble [View article]
    To: Marcap

    I've never been a great fan of goodwill and intangibles. Most of the time they have little worth and represent more of a sign that the company overpaid for its assets. In this case, however, they do have real value. Bounty, pampers, duracell, tide, crest are all household names. If PG were to sell one of them, the brand alone would command a high return. Witness the nice price PG sold Folger's. PG's goodwill and intangibles are valuable. PG's goodwill and intangibles only become quicksand if the brands lose their appeal to consumers. Rather, they dominate their markets bringing in a strong and reliable cash flow.
    Feb 15, 2009. 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    Tatertot: Tangible equity for 2004 was $8.5 billion, 2005 dropped to $8.2 billion, 2006 went to zero, 2007 $2.7 billion. Now we are at minus $6.8 billion. That's a 5 year trend, almost a $4 billion dollar a year loss in tangible equity on average a year. The trend is worrisome.
    Opa-opa: This is a discussion about the balance sheet. However, looking at the above drops in tangible equity, it seems clear that BA has not been able to use its sales to keep its balance sheet in order.
    Feb 13, 2009. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    To lbrtkng:

    The balance sheet pension asset or liability is equal to the difference between pension assets and the actuary’s estimate of pension liability plus or minus the unrecognized (unamortized) portions of past and prior service costs, actuarial/experience gains or losses.

    In other words, pension assets - liabilities are apples to apples.
    Feb 13, 2009. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    To lbrtkng: Per SEC 10K, BA has incurred an $8.4 billion pension liability, largely owing to over a $7 billion loss (read sour investments). Its pension overfunding has disappeared, a $5.9 billion gone. Therefore, the apples, oranges, together become one big tomato of a $13 billion + drop in equity.
    Where are those acquisitions on the balance sheet? More goodwill, intangibles, and plants.
    As to 2 points, the market usually compares year over year earnings. This is a comparison to year over year equity, its breakdown into components of the asset and balance sheet.
    Feb 13, 2009. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    Opa-opa: "Doom" title was chosen by Seeking Alpha, not me.
    The future for BA is dimmer in great part because it has lost a vast amount of its assets. For those of us who have followed this company, it's pretty sad. Back, in 2005, tangible equity was $8.5 billion.
    Now it's in the hole $6.8 billion. That's $15.3 billion in damages in 4 years! Who else could wreck so much equity and prosper?
    As to the future? Negative free cash flow, currency issues. higher salaries and health costs (from strike), customers walking or renegotiating contracts after BA's failure to deliver, decreased air travel, quality issues with fasteners, likely more 787 delays, pension plan pressure, all should create more than their share of problems for BA.
    Feb 12, 2009. 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    tatertot: I wanted to dramatize the collapse of BA's assets in one year. The market totally ignored the balance sheet. It will take a herculean effort to repair the balance sheet. Also the investing public ignored the looming problem BA faces with its new pension plan problems: pension plan assets went from $5.9 billion positive to a $8.4 billion liability. Someone needs to fire the guy in charge of the pension plan.

    Note above remark is a swing of $13 billion in the pension plan.
    Feb 12, 2009. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment