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Stephen Rosenman

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  • Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB) declares $0.075/share quarterly dividend, 50.0% decrease from prior dividend of $0.15. Forward yield 1.09%. For shareholders of record Aug. 14. Payable Sept. 4. Ex-div Aug. 12. (PR[View news story]
    Incorrect. HOMB increased divi by $0.015.
    Jul 24 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best- And Worst-Performing Stocks On Earnings [View article]
    TAYC's rise had nothing to do with earnings. TAYC presented its earnings along with a simultaneous announcement that it was being acquired for a 20% premium.
    Jul 20 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Dividends Become Sidelined By The Fiscal Cliff? [View article]
    Congratulations Ed! Nice call on ARDNA.
    Jul 15 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks Growing Gangbusters, But Not At All Cheap [View article]
    I'm puzzled. EPS were in-line as far as I can tell. Can you send me a link verifying OZRK's coming in light?
    Jul 13 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ponzi Or MLP? Linn Energy's Unsustainable Distributions [View article]
    It's important to note that other MLPs such as KMP have distributions that are well covered by operating cash flow.

    LINE's uncovered distributions are concerning.
    Jul 12 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard Pacific Corp. Is Definitely Worth A Look [View article]
    Please research articles before publishing. PE of 6.2 looks cheap only if you forget to mention a half million dollars in a one-time tax benefit! Otherwise, SPF would have lost $ for the year.
    Jul 10 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years [View article]
    Look at the Q4 FY 2012 and you will note a $351 million tax benefit due to reversal of NOL.
    That one-time event is responsible for the lion's share of that $2.85.
    Do check the data and you will see your predicted earnings are impossible.
    I've linked the comany's report.
    Jun 28 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years [View article]
    Your future earnings estimates are way off base - even the conservative ones. Toll made $2.87 in 2012 because of a $374 million tax benefit. In reality, Toll earned about $0.50 taking out this one-time event. FY 2013 consensus estimate is $0.83 and probable. Your "conservative" FY 2013 of $2.87 would represent over a five fold EPS increase. Toll has earned $0.17 so far this year and would need to make $2.70 over the next 2 quarters to reach your estimate.
    Jun 28 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Is Immune To The Fed And Could Double In 2 Years [View article]
    Low PE 2012 due to tax refunds. They go away 2013.
    Jun 28 05:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks: High Growth Bank With A High Growth Price Tag [View article]
    One correction: OZRK did not grow by acquiring "live" banks. Rather, it made 7 FDIC-assisted acquisitions of failed banks and those acquisitions fueled its stellar growth. Only since December has it begun taking over "live" banks.

    I would suggest that rising long interest rates will ultimately give OZRK a boost.
    Jun 24 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Staples Stocks Fear The Fed? [View article]
    As 10 yr Treasuries start yielding more, dividend paying stocks decrease. However, historically that decline doesn't last very long - and they do perform well. During the dreaded 1994 Treasury yield run-up, dividend payers dropped initially but by the end of that year, PG had risen 7% over all and CL lifted 4%. Those Ts rolled up to a majestic 7.8% yield, 500 BP above PG, yet the dividend payers held up remarkably well. I lived through that time.
    We are in a better position than at that time. Treasuries are at 2.35%, not 4.5% and dividend payer like PG are at 3.1%, not 2%. So the Procters and Colgates may do better than back then.
    Again, a historical perspective on how markets have behaved in the past on dramatic 10 year run ups.
    Jun 19 08:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Staples Stocks Fear The Fed? [View article]
    Historically dividend yields are already high. When the Fed backs off, current staples stock yields may be high enough to protect them from much of a further correction. Should their share prices decline, it is unlikely those declines will last.
    Jun 19 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Homebuilders: Can You Believe Them? [View article]
    Thanks. Management are straight shooters. I sold the homebuilders in 2005 and 2006 because the CEOS basically said to on their conference calls. Since 2010, they have become more upbeat. This last quarter, the reports were bullish. They've earned credibility.
    Jun 11 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.M. Smucker Needs More Balance Between Growth And Value [View article]
    SJM bought Folgers for $3.3 billion and sells over $2 billion coffee each year with over $500 million operating profit. Not a bad use of stock I'd say.
    Jun 3 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Is Not In A Bubble, But Housing Stocks Are Not Cheap [View article]
    Most stocks are close to their price targets.

    The 30 stocks in the DJIA are close to consensus 1-year price targets (on average now about 1-2% below consensus). Only CAT and AA have targets 10% or more above current share price.

    The S&P 500 itself has a forward PE of 14.6, about where many of the homebuilders are. On the basis of price targets and forward PE, very few stocks are cheap.
    May 30 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment