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Stephen Rosenman

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  • How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1 [View article]
    I've been extremely bullish on AAPL and still am. However, $500 a share would put AAPL's market cap at $451 billion, eclipsing even XOM which is the leader in cap at $357 billion. Still quite a stretch regardless of gaining 10% market share.
    Oct 22 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's All About Apple's R&D [View article]
    utopianzhere: Apple spent $400 million + a year in total R&D. R&D as a percentage of income was far lower than listed techs.
    Oct 6 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper's Run Over [View article]
    I've been amazed that copper prices have not fallen further in view of increasing LME stockpiles. The prolonged negative MACD and RSI has barely affected copper pricing. They should have killed copper. Makes me think that it is going to take an awful lot to bring price down. Speculators very entrenched. No position.
    Sep 30 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Dog' Beazer Homes Outrunning the Pack [View article]
    They don't have to pay off all 1.5 billion. They just have to decrease it. Since June 30, they removed $255 million in bonds for a net increase in equity of $73 million. Each time they buy back high priced debt, they decrease that $1.5 billion, and, at the same time, they increase equity. The key will be an improving debt to equity ratio. It will make BZH more appetizing for banks to lend at more favorable rates. Look at what has already happened: 20% rates have declined to 13% in 6 weeks, still a high rate but a remarkable improvement. Now we have banks lending $250 million to BZH at 12%, something impossible 2 months ago. I expect the process repeats kicking rates lower.
    Eventually, I expect BZH does a secondary offering at much higher stock levels and recapitalizes much the same as banks are doing now. Again, not too long ago, no one would have expected banks to be able to do that and still drive their share prices higher. Of course, the take down of debt and rebuilding of equity will buy BZH time until housing recovers. Thus, the start of the virtuous circle.
    Sep 23 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors [View article]
    You base your argument on FCF. I pointed out earlier that Apple has accelerating FCF. Your 15% FCF is fantasy and has no baring on Apple's last 4 years. You predicate your argument on faulty data. Why write an article that uses invalid numbers to justify a sell on Apple?
    Aug 17 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still a Great Investment, Right? Not for Value Investors [View article]
    FCF: 2006 - 1.56 billion; 2007 - 4.7 billion; 2008 - 8.5 billion; TTM - 10.2 billion. I see FCF growth rate far greater than 15%, don't you?
    Aug 17 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Unemployment Improving or Are People Dropping Out of the Labor Force? [View article]
    Most wall streeters and number crunchers forget that everybody else lives in the real world. If you can't get a "job", you get an alternative one i.e. enter the underground economy -- construction, taxi, nanny, family business, cleaning service, landscaping. Every single article misses this. Here you get to receive benefits, fed subsidies and no taxes/reporting. Unemployment benefits + Unreported wages = Not bad. The loser: the tax base. Rising unemployment misses the shift to the underground economy which is alive and well, in fact, burgeoning.
    Aug 12 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Total Unemplyoment' July 2009 [View article]
    Unemployment numbers and the "spread" disregards the underground economy: those who now work for relatives, construction, lawn services, tutors, nannies. The market doesn't look at these in large part because the statistics are bad; these "workers" don't want to be counted. Many of those underemployed and unemployed are working under the counter.
    Aug 9 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Perfect Storm Affects Copper [View article]
    Fair enough. How do you put the data together? Where do you see copper prices going?
    Jul 28 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America Movil Benefits from Forex [View article]
    Plot FXM and UUP over the last year. FXM is still down 28% versus UUP from last year. UUP has been trading down as buyers flee the dollar and move to any currency but. FXM's weakness was extraordinary, way oversold. That's why FXM improves versus the dollar.
    Jul 25 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson City Bancorp Meets Estimates [View article]
    I'm puzzled. HCBK earned 26 cents according to their published quarter. Why 24 cents?
    Jul 22 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Isn't the Dollar Falling? [View article]
    Interesting. However, I think FXC and FXA move higher against $USD because they have the equivalent of "gold" within their borders: iron (FXA) and oil, nickel, copper, gold (FXC).
    Jul 20 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper ETFs: How China Controls Their Fate [View article]
    Thank you for the interesting post. China has been an important driver of copper. I don't think their buying is done because their infrastructure stimulus is so large. They've been adding to it with iron and nickel. Iron is a far bigger cost for them which is in part why they have gone so on a limb over Rio Tinto and commercial "espionage". They are in a ravenous mode with 2 trillion in foreign currency and a country with tremendous demand for minerals. The buying goes on, not necessarily in a straight line, certainly not back to 2008 and 2007 levels. In addition, we're seeing even the U.S. starting to pick up with CME copper stores decreasing. Not all that copper and mineral buying will come from China; the rest of the world is coming on board.
    Jul 19 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Loonie Falls to More Reasonable Levels - National Bank Financial [View article]

    Loonie is more than an oil play. Minerals should continue a nice run boosting the C$. Canadian banking is strong. Technically Loonie is poised for a nice bounce. For a while, it looked like a head and shoulders pattern would emerge; with today's action jump, that's off the table. Nice start to MCD. I suspect we make new highs and get true "reasonable" valuation.
    Jul 14 08:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UUP: An Exact Replacement for USD/EUR [View article]
    You are correct. Most investors look at UUP as a trade against 6 other currencies. In fact, UUP behaves like USD/EUR. UDN is a near perfect match for FXE.
    Jul 12 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment