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Stephen Rosenman  

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  • Which is rising fastest: Gold, Copper, Corn, Tankers? [View instapost]
    Sorry. I have not owned NAT for years and no longer follow it.

    Best of luck.
    Steve
    Feb 9, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Constant Contact: Acceleration In ARPU Growth, Upward Revision In EPS Estimates To Drive Further Upside [View article]
    Remember that analyst estimates are for nonGAAP EPS. GAAP earnings are quite a bit lower so that real PE is 100. Forward GAAP PE is probably 60 to 70 range.

    Don't think investors focus on earnings as much as revenue. If CTCT delivers accelerated revenue growth, stock goes higher. If sales underperform, so will the shares.
    Jan 7, 2015. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opus Bank: Can History Repeat Itself? [View article]
    Thanks, Praveen. It's easy to see why Abrams and Singer were drawn to Opus. The bank is rapidly growing and is run by a CEO who has successfully built banks before. However, I'd stay on the side-line for now. My concern: In its race to grow, Opus has taken on too much credit and interest rate risk.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Trashed US Ecology And Consolidate A Niche Market [View article]
    Thanks, Matt, for your question. You bring up a very good point. ECOL is required to carry environmental impairment insurance as well as a slew of other liability insurance. The company actually got into trouble in the 1970s and 1980s because of leaking landfills. Their record has been excellent since. Hazardous waste management has come a long way over the last 30 years.

    So what could else could adversely affect the stock? A failure to integrate EQ or a marked industrial slowdown.
    Jan 2, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Trashed US Ecology And Consolidate A Niche Market [View article]
    Thank you for your kind words. Much appreciated.
    Jan 1, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVS Health: Uninspiring Yields [View article]
    The $10 billion is a big deal - equal to a tenth of CVS's market cap.

    As for your thought the company will only spend $6 billion of the $10 billion: During CVS's last analyst forum in 2013, the company announced a $6 billion share repurchase to also be completed over a "multi-year period" and said it expected to spend $4 billion in 2014 buybacks. Instead, CVS exhausted the whole $6 billion in 2014.

    I expect the same pattern in 2015: CVS takes back $10 billion of stock, a very nice tailwind for shareholders.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Banc Of California's Rapid Growth Overcome Its Sky-High Overhead? [View article]
    Management is considering offering senior debt in 2015, presumably to improve the costs of its existing debt. BANC has rather burdensome debt and reducing that will give them breathing room. So yes, expect to have BOCA called away.
    Nov 18, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Valley Financial Corporation Q3 Earnings [View article]
    Nice call.
    Nov 17, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofI Holding: Powerball, Legal Settlements, Costco, MultiFamily, And Soon H&R Block's Bank [View article]
    Nicely said.
    Nov 2, 2014. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why New York Community Bancorp's Shares Are Essentially Bonds [View article]
    NYCB does trade like a bond - a very good bond. As long as management can keep assets below $50 billion for at least one out of four quarters, NYCB can maintain a nice profit to cover its bountiful dividend. In fact, management is voluntarily curtailing growth in order not to go over the dreaded $50 billion mark, something Ficalora believes he can accomplish for years. Ficalora would love to do a big deal - and gain much needed low cost deposits to ensure the bank's growth. Unfortunately, that would entail going over the $50 billion - and draw all the extra costs and regulation brought by joining the TBTF. In the meantime, NYCB and other banks near the $50 billion level bide their time until Dodd-Frank is amended.
    The stock isn't for those seeking growth. Quite the opposite - NYCB is for dividend-seekers. You could do a whole lot worse than NYCB with its 6+% dividend. And sleep well. After all, NYCB has paid the 25 cents divi for 43 consecutive quarters.
    Oct 23, 2014. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofI Holding: Powerball, Legal Settlements, Costco, MultiFamily, And Soon H&R Block's Bank [View article]
    Efficiency ratio is noninterest expense divided by interest and non interest income. An high ratio means the bank's costs are high relative to its revenue. Unencumbered by physical branches, BOFI has an extremely low overhead and, therefore, a low efficiency ratio.
    Oct 23, 2014. 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes Virginia, The Market Can Go Down - Part I [View article]
    Bret, why only 25% in cash?
    Sep 25, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side To The Buckle's Earnings Release [View article]
    The company pre-announces its revenues so no surprise is ever possible on earnings day. Buckle's outperformance today was due to the quarter's lower inventory per store despite limited promotional activity - refreshing and remarkable considering the rest of the shopping mall.
    Aug 21, 2014. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peregrine Semiconductor: Heed Management's Warnings Of Further Market Share Loss [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words. And you are correct about AVGO, LSI will be a major contributor to revenue. And true, SWKS is the leader.
    Aug 21, 2014. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News Is Oversold At First Republic Bank [View article]
    Enjoyed your take.

    Frank-Dodd practically mandates a bank slowdown when it hits the $50 billion asset wall. Shares of FRC have outperformed NYCB for years now by wide margins but the Market understands growth at FRC is about to stall. Investors would rather go over that $50 billion cliff with NYCB's 6.4% dividends than FRC's 1.2% dividends.
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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