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Stephen Rosenman

 
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  • Three Factors that Will Drive New Home Sales [View article]
    clreed1252 and 58robbo:

    The point of the piece is that new home sales are depressed far below anything that has been seen in most of our lifetimes. If you go back through new home sales records that have been kept (about 46 years), it is hard to find anything similar. If you take into account the growth of the U.S. population, the numbers are even more startling. Were new home sales to rise to levels seen at any time in the 1960s or 70s, the builders' revenues would be tremendous. Whether a return to more normal sales will occur because of tax credit extensions, low rates, or simply population pressures, who cares? Quite simply, they will. Short term influences may do the job quickly; if not, certainly longer term pressures will move these sales back at least to those which held firmly for the last 45 years. Currently the eleven largest publicly traded builders account for about 17% of residential building. Their share prices have been smashed. I don't think that will continue.
    Nov 4 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June Same-Store Sales Disappointing for Retailers [View article]
    Thanks. It's nice to see monthly sales in one place. Would be a great help if you could post this monthly.
    Jul 10 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AT&T Is a Strong Growth Story [View article]
    True they have enough cash flow to cover. But look at their balance sheet: $134 billion in intangible assets. They have -$37 billion tangible equity. The company has $74 billion debt. Current assets $23 billion, liabilities $37 billion. The company never builds real equity with its cash flow. Once the music stops, ATT is in great danger. I believe that VZ and T in the next three years may be the next GM and Chrysler.
    Jul 9 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Is Wrong: Why NII Holdings Is a Buy [View article]
    Both AMX and NIHD have suffered largely because of unfavorable forex. The combination of an extraordinarily strong dollar and flimsy peso killed both of these companies over the last 2 quarters. AMX's growth was hidden beneath the forex pounding. Recent weakness in the dollar should allow AMX and NIHD stock prices to appreciate because their fundamental businesses are good. Zack's consensus for growth in NIHD seems to be very optimistic. Yahoo consensus puts estimates of 5 year growth at a little over 11% which would put the two companies on a similar trajectory.
    Jun 27 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy, Sell or Hold? [View article]
    Apple's share price does not depend on sales growth. Rather, its price hinges on earnings. Nokia, for instance, increased its revenue from $34 billion to $58 billion over the last 3 years. Unfortunately, for Nokia, profit margins fell to 0.04%. Apple, in contrast, has not only grown revenue but driven net profit margins to 14.7% (and its iPhones which command greater margins have not yet been factored in). The author's thesis looks at only one variable (and not the key metric) to derive fair price.
    Jun 20 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Baltic Dry Index vs. the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: Which Is a Better Indicator? [View article]
    Seekingalpha changed the title. It had been: The BDI and BDTI: a disparity that cannot go on for long. Both indices are excellent. The article argues that the dirty tanker index's drop is unlikely to continue in part because the sharp divergence of the BDI and BDTI cannot stand.
    May 23 07:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Macy's and Whole Foods - Thesis Versus Fact [View article]
    Macy's overexpanded in the retail boom. They now are facing the bill for that venture. Currently, they have over $9 billion in debt with zero tangible equity. It is doubtful they will be able to manage that debt on cash flow alone given decreasing sales. I expect to see a combination of stock offerings and store closings.
    May 8 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Stuck in a Trading Range? [View article]
    Your argument that AAPL is too big to grow its market cap is way too late. When AAPL was trading at $182, the company was too large to justify the growth that their PE implied. The bear market took care of that. In October 2008, when the stock price dropped, I went positive on AAPL. The company is still quite a ways from those lofty market caps and still is undervalued. Per my article: seekingalpha.com/artic...
    " Think about it this way: When AAPL was trading at $182 it had a $156 billion dollar market cap but was slated to earn $5.22 for 2008. At that market cap, AAPL was the eight largest company in the world. Only Exon, EON, China Mobile, GE, Walmart, MSFT, and PG had market caps over $200 billion at the time.

    In order to vault to a $200 billion dollar market cap, AAPL needed to demonstrate either big profits or growth in earnings. The $5.22 just didn't do it. By the law of mass, companies that become larger grow more slowly; hence, small companies can have startling growth while large firms begin to slow theirs. "

    Unfortunately, it appeared to me that AAPL had a heavy load to lift if it was to increase its share price to a level of a $200 billion dollar company, $240 a share. At the time, it seemed AAPL had no where to go but down.

    The bar just got lowered substantially. AAPL is now a $99 billion market cap company, no longer a member of that tiny club of behemoths. It's a stock that has room to run. "
    Apr 21 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Prices Could Plummet in Q2 [View article]
    Copper has traded higher on decreasing LME stores and some weakening of the $. It's a great commodity to follow because stores and prices are so easy to follow. Iron and oil, for instance, are more critical to the world economy and likely better forecasters but they are a lot tougher to gauge. Iron doesn't trade on the future markets and it's much more difficult to get exact inventories. Oil, while having a future market, is really slippery when trying to figure out what's out there: supply and inventory are spread out all over. Traders will send copper up or down based on fairly transparent stores and strength of the dollar.
    Apr 7 06:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper Prices Leave S. American Producers Feeling Down [View article]
    LME stock piles for copper and zinc are going down. Even nickel looks like LME stores will start to drop. Nonferrous prices are climbing. Room for great optimism in the miners.
    Mar 10 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's in Apple's Wallet? Cash [View article]
    relayer75: Unfortunately, Seeking Alpha typed a comma instead of a period.

    crazylegs: Please see my previous article for rising cash positions.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Mar 9 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter and (Less) Gamble [View article]
    To: Marcap

    I've never been a great fan of goodwill and intangibles. Most of the time they have little worth and represent more of a sign that the company overpaid for its assets. In this case, however, they do have real value. Bounty, pampers, duracell, tide, crest are all household names. If PG were to sell one of them, the brand alone would command a high return. Witness the nice price PG sold Folger's. PG's goodwill and intangibles are valuable. PG's goodwill and intangibles only become quicksand if the brands lose their appeal to consumers. Rather, they dominate their markets bringing in a strong and reliable cash flow.
    Feb 15 06:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    tatertot: I wanted to dramatize the collapse of BA's assets in one year. The market totally ignored the balance sheet. It will take a herculean effort to repair the balance sheet. Also the investing public ignored the looming problem BA faces with its new pension plan problems: pension plan assets went from $5.9 billion positive to a $8.4 billion liability. Someone needs to fire the guy in charge of the pension plan.

    Note above remark is a swing of $13 billion in the pension plan.
    Feb 12 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It [View article]
    Tatertot: I wanted to dramatize the collapse of BA's assets in one year. The market totally ignored the balance sheet. It will take a herculean effort to repair the balance sheet. Also the investing public ignored the looming problem BA faces with its new pension plan problems: pension plan assets went from $5.9 billion to a $8.4 billion liability. Someone needs to fire the guy in charge of the pension plan.
    Feb 12 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • R&D Costs of the Pfizer / Wyeth Deal [View article]
    What valuable research at either company?
    Seems to me both companies have been unable to bring much new into the picture.
    PFE seems to have spent its cash for a similar doddering company.
    Jan 30 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
618 Comments
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