Seeking Alpha

Stephen Rosenman  

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  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    Nerisdetum,
    Since I've turned negative on Apple, I've written 2 bearish pieces. Prior to that (40 or so articles over a 4 year period), they were all positive.

    The graph is a continuation of data I've been publishing for 4 years. Nothing has been changed to "skew" the data.

    I don't think that Apple can increase their unit volume enough to make up for future declines in unit profits.
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    $480 is my one-year target price.

    As for shorting Apple at its current price? Apple shares are a play thing of traders. They could take it way up or way down depending on the weather that day. $480 is not my one-month target.

    Dec 11, 2012. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    User 208961,

    Apple's an incredible company. That hasn't changed. However, right now Apple earns $214 on each and every item it sells. That extraordinarily high unit profit is very vulnerable to competitive pressures and cost increases.

    While Apple does design its hardware and software, it is far from vertically integrated: It does not manufacture its products. That is a major area of vulnerability.
    Dec 11, 2012. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    Pedro,
    Don't assume these sales will come in. Remember - the iPhone 5 was out of stock for much of the quarter due to production snafus.

    If Apple cannot maintain its extraordinary unit profits, it is going to need much higher units sold to make the numbers.
    Dec 11, 2012. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out Below: Apple's Unit Profits Are Falling [View article]
    No bias here. I sold all my shares and no longer have a position in Apple.
    The analysts are incorrectly predicting higher EPS for 2013 and 2014. Unit profits have been decreasing and will continue to decrease.
    Steve
    Dec 11, 2012. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Performance Following Major Product Launches [View article]
    Johnny,
    Recently I've noticed various statements that Apple goes up after announcements and others that Apple goes down after announcements. The truth is in-between. Its most recent launches were followed by dramatic moves higher. However, the stock disappointed after the original iPad and the iPhone 3GS launch.
    For those long Apple, hopefully the iPhone's effect will be similar to the action seen after the 4S and new iPad launches.
    Steve
    Sep 12, 2012. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Value Apple Stock As It Sets Market Value Record [View article]
    Apple trades at 12x operating cash flow TTM, not 9X.
    Aug 22, 2012. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And The Overseas Tax Showdown [View article]
    thompr,
    No tears for Apple coming out of my eyes.
    This has far greater implications for us at home.
    Steve
    Jul 12, 2012. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And The Overseas Tax Showdown [View article]
    Remember that multinationals like Apple get tax credit for paying overseas taxes on any repatriated cash. Apple would not see a 35% tax rate. It would see a lessened, although still hefty U.S. tax on profits brought back to shore.

    Otherwise I agree with you. Apple is unlikely to bring its offshore profits here due to unfavorable tax consequences, a problem for both Cupertino and the U.S.
    Jul 12, 2012. 05:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: When Does The Sleeping Giant Awake? [View article]
    Kim, you're right if you sell options on margin. However, if you sell covered calls or sell options not on margin, you stand to make 100%.
    Steve
    Jun 18, 2012. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Indicator Is Flashing A Clear Buy Signal [View article]
    Jangandeh,

    The period is days.

    To see a 14 day period RSI chart, see http://bit.ly/duZ1er

    Steve
    May 18, 2012. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Indicator Is Flashing A Clear Buy Signal [View article]
    Cgrudy,

    Thanks. I used a period of 14. (The 14 period is the one suggested by Wilder, the originator of the technical.)

    Using RSI (14) the technical has been uncannily predictive of strong upside Apple moves as detailed in the article.

    Steve
    May 18, 2012. 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Price Is Back To Pre-Earnings Levels [View article]
    Gutone,

    The reason price went down was due to increased deferred revenue per device. Since June 2011, Apple's deferring $16 on each iPhone and iPad, $11 on every iPod Touch, and $22 on every Mac. These revenues will be recognized straight-line over 24 to 48 months, depending on the device. That wasn't the case in quarter ending 3/11.
    Steve
    May 8, 2012. 05:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Brick-And-Mortar Supremacy [View article]
    berylrb,
    MCD operating income is much higher than YUM. YUM's is comparable to Apple retail.
    Steve
    May 7, 2012. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Apple Earnings Estimates [View article]
    skepticL,
    In FY 2011, Q2 thru Q4's operating income per unit sale were higher than Q1 by $50. This time, I am looking for only a $10 increase from FY 2012 Q1, in part because of deferred revenue.
    Steve
    Apr 20, 2012. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Stephen Rosenman
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