Seeking Alpha

Stephen Rosenman

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  • What Happens When 10 Million Apple Shares Get Dumped? The Stock 'Goes On A Tear' [View article]
    HenTor,
    "Do you really think that selling 10,000,000 shares is going to make a big difference?" The trade happened back in April and it did weigh on the stock. Apple dropped from $348 (May 1) to a low of $315 (June 20), in part because of the rebalance.
    The shares in question were held in passive ETFs and normally would have not been trading. Instead, all at once, they were dumped into the market, having to find "new homes". On April 29 the daily volume reached almost 40 million shares. Many of the chucked shares ended up in the hands of traders rather than investors adding to the volatility of May and June.

    Oct 14 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone Product Cycle: As Simple As 1-2-3-4 [View article]
    Stefan,
    You've made an excellent argument. A yearly form factor upgrade would be something of a logistical nightmare. Far easier to revamp the internal components and save the externals for every other year.
    Thanks for an excellent article. Welcome back.
    Oct 12 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs More Momentum To Keep Its Market Share [View article]
    Puzzling. The author is long Apple but is suggesting shorting the stock. Explanation?
    Sep 27 05:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Onto Your Apple: Its PE Is About To Experience A Gut Wrenching Drop [View article]
    Francis,
    Apple's earnings come out in October. Analysts are expecting $27.72. At $404 price when article written, PE drops to 14.6. Apple has usually beating consensus handily. I'm expecting $29.49 EPS for FY 2011, a 13.7 PE. You can find those numbers in the article's table.
    As to why the market gives Apple such a low PE? Two reasons: 1. the market doesn't like big cap tech companies except for Amazon and 2. investors believe Apple's days of high growth will be ending in the not too distant future. I think Apple's best days are ahead.
    Sep 26 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Onto Your Apple: Its PE Is About To Experience A Gut Wrenching Drop [View article]
    You are correct. My dumb mistake. Sorry.
    Sep 26 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Onto Your Apple: Its PE Is About To Experience A Gut Wrenching Drop [View article]
    Camden,
    Great point. PE was over 40 in 2007 and over 20 in 2009.
    Sep 26 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Onto Your Apple: Its PE Is About To Experience A Gut Wrenching Drop [View article]
    David,
    I take credit for the title completely. I'm shocked that the market has given Apple such a low PE and wanted to point out where the PE will be after another blockbuster quarter.
    You can read how I got to the $29.29 estimate here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    So far, my estimates have been done better than the analysts.
    As to adding to the debate, it is the debate. Should this remarkable growth story be given a higher PE? That is the key issue for all Apple shareholders.
    Sep 26 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hold Onto Your Apple: Its PE Is About To Experience A Gut Wrenching Drop [View article]
    Thanks User 4121 for noticing the typo. "longer" should be "lower".
    Sep 26 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Turnovers Win The Tech Bake-Off [View article]
    406597,
    I'm drawn to AAPL because the stock is so undervalued. I've been blogging on AAPL for 4 years. Throughout much of that period, the market has been blind to the company's full potential. At this time, the investing community seems particularly myopic. I'm hoping to open eyes to Apple's great story.
    Sep 12 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market Pricing Apple Correctly? [View article]
    Thanks, Dutch Trader.
    Sep 10 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Has Sent Apple's PE Off A Cliff: Whether You Should Buy [View article]
    The only rational explanation:
    Either other companies' PEs are too expensive or Apple's PE is too cheap.
    Probably a combination of both.
    Sep 6 01:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once You Master Apple's 'Under Promise/Over Deliver,' You Know More Than The Pros [View article]
    Camden,
    You're not missing anything. $9 is suggested by the trend line. My article suggests "north of $8.50". I'm simply inserting a "conservative" base for EPS.
    Sep 4 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Enters A New Super Cycle [View article]
    Camden,
    I'm glad you liked the series. As to your comment about accelerating earnings, this piece doesn't suggest earnings will accelerate. Rather, Apple's EPS will likely beat guidance by 35 to 62% over the next 3 to 5 quarters. Apple may give lower guidance in the future, for instance. I do see increasing EPS over the next year. As to accelerating yoy earnings growth, that's quite a bit more difficult.
    Sep 1 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Enters A New Super Cycle [View article]
    SMaturin,
    I'm glad you liked the "earnings beat" chart in my previous article (seekingalpha.com/artic...).
    The chart helps to predict upcoming earnings rather than share price growth.
    The bullish nature of the chart does indicate higher Apple share prices in the future.
    Sep 1 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Enters A New Super Cycle [View article]
    Augustom,
    $8.87 or greater.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Sep 1 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Stephen Rosenman
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