Stephen Rosenman

Is Unemployment Improving or Are People Dropping Out of the Labor Force?

Most wall streeters and number crunchers forget that everybody else lives in the real world. If you can't get a "job", you get an alternative one i.e. enter the underground economy -- construction, taxi, nanny, family business, cleaning service, landscaping. Every single article misses this. Here you get to receive benefits, fed subsidies and no taxes/reporting. Unemployment benefits + Unreported wages = Not bad. The loser: the tax base. Rising unemployment misses the shift to the underground economy which is alive and well, in fact, burgeoning.

Why Isn't the Dollar Falling?

John,
Interesting. However, I think FXC and FXA move higher against $USD because they have the equivalent of "gold" within their borders: iron (FXA) and oil, nickel, copper, gold (FXC).

Equity Market's Slippery Slope

The argument of the paper is that long bull markets end in very long and deep bear markets. This bear market should be especially deep and long because there had been an unusually long and rapid growth in equities. That extraordinary bull run had been marked by companies overreaching: overbuilding, taking on enormous debt, expanding too rapidly. That takes a long time to unwind. This government is trying desperately to shorten the process and ease the pain. It will be near impossible to reengineer the whole economy. The process naturally occurs over years and is painful. The bear markets that have been short (a few years) have occurred after brief bull markets. This one has been long overdue. No bull market has lasted so long without years of pain following.

Equity Market's Slippery Slope

To proximo: (11500 - 840)/840/20 = 0.63. Average slope of 0.63 a year.
To 970slashX: I think we're talking about different numbers. I am not figuring CAGR but rate of rise of the slope. What I think has confused readers is the %s given. They refer simply to slope.
The slope and duration of the 1980 to 2007 bull market is similar to that of the Nikkei 1970 to 2000, Dow 1921 to 1929, and Nasdaq 1990 to 2000. The bear markets that followed those three bull markets were severe and prolonged. I believe those bear markets last a long time because equities were priced way beyond normal values. The historical rate of rise in slope has been 0.2 which would put the Dow still overvalued.

Under The Radar News - Friday

Has there been a day when AAPL has not appeared in Under The Radar?
Something is always happening somewhere with the Big Apple.

Is the Market Turning Around?

Market turned in mid January.

What Credit Crunch?

seems like everybody is maxing out their current available credit. what's harder is obtaining new credit. problem is credit can be gotten for outrageous cost i.e. expensive credit cards.

Tuesday's Rally Shows How Much Negativity Was Priced In

No stand. Nada.

Tuesday's Rally Shows How Much Negativity Was Priced In

Nothing new added.

Warning Signs of a Modern Depression: See 1990 Japan

MDR, AAPL, HOC all American companies with perfect balance sheets, growth, exquisite management -- the Ibanks, mortgage lenders are one part of the economy; there's alot that is right with the rest.

Tuesday Was 4th Largest Point Gain in Dow's History

1.People do take profits after a big up day.
2.What happened on 3/15/2000 and 3/16/2000? Tells you how important a few big days can be to overall gains long term.

The Advantages of Short Selling

I concur. If you only go long a basket of picked stocks, it's difficult to do anything but follow the ups and downs of the broad market. If you go long stocks you like and short those you don't, you avoid mimicking the indexes.