Seeking Alpha

Stephen Rosenman's  Instablog

Stephen Rosenman
Send Message
I enjoy analyzing the financial health of companies and pointing out areas the market is either not recognizing or ignoring. A long time investor, I put my money where my mouth is. That's why I'm passionate about my positions. I trumpet companies I believe in and back my articles up with data... More
My blog:
Stephen Rosenman
View Stephen Rosenman's Instablogs on:
  • Best Buy's iPhone Lament
         BBY beat street earnings consensus and raised guidance. 

         Not all was roses. The company lamented about limited availability of the iPad at its stores.  In fact, BBY singled out very limited iPad supply as being responsible for market share weakness:
        "The decline was primarily driven by the impact of lost traffic associated with constrained inventory during the initial iPad lauch which adversely impacted traditional mobile computing traffic".  
        In other words, the lack of iPad supply kept customers away from BBY stores.  They weren't buying netbooks.  Mobile computing wasn't as strong.  Shoppers were waiting for the "magical device".  I can almost hear the CEO sighing: "If only I'd had a million more iPad..."
       (I know.  I was one of those who walked out of BBY due to the unavailability of the iPad.)  
       Startling that even with the iPad limited supply, BBY noted:  "tablets in particular were very strong for us".  BBY could have sold a ton of iPads if supply was there.
        BBY just announced that it will roll out the iPhone to all of its 1,093 U.S. stores (www.bby.com/2010/09/14/best-buy-expands-.../) on September 26.  That's up from the current 673 stores.  They made the announcement the same day they reported earnings.  BBY is telling us that the product will be strong and implies inventory problems are solved.  
       This is another sign of the incredible future for the iPad and, therefore, AAPL's earnings.
       



    Disclosure: Long AAPL
    Sep 14 8:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple Doesn't Need To Buy Its Growth
        HPQ, DELL, INTC, IBM, ORCL -- all big techs, all buying their way into growth. They're spending billions on small and mid cap companies.  One only has to look at HPQ and DELL's bidding war for 3PAR to see crazy shopping at the stock supermarket. 3PAR Enterprise Value/EBITDA is currently at 236.  Dell care to raise? Hyperinflation is alive and well when it comes to tech M&A.  Quite frankly, it's getting scary to buy shares of large cap tech companies.

         The one big tech missing from the fray, AAPL, hasn't made the billion dollar buy. The Bank of Apple has $46 billion in cash, short and long term investments.  It could take out fistfuls of midsize tech companies.  So far, it's only purchased microcaps like Quattro and Lala.  

         Why then, is it sitting on the sidelines? Because it's got organic growth, something very few big tech names can say.  For $4 billion in R&D spent from fiscal years 2006 through 2009, they were able to grow their revenue from $14 in 2005 to $56 billion (NYSE:TTM).  Apple didn't takeover RIMM to get its smart phone.  It didn't buy 5 overpriced companies to build the iPad?  AAPL doesn't need to buy billion dollar tech companies to get growth.  AAPL is the Whole Foods of organic growth. 



    Disclosure: Long AAPL
    Tags: AAPL, HPQ, DELL, IBM, INTC, ORCL
    Aug 29 8:32 PM | Link | Comment!
  • By Land and By Sea: PART 2 - Norfolk Southern Reports An Amazing March
        Norfolk Southern, in their conference call, gave strong evidence of a recovery (seekingalpha.com/article/201225-norfolk-...).  Total shipments were up 9% over first quarter last year.   Each of their business groups reached year high loadings except for automotive.  The numbers are starling:
            "...merchandise volume increased by 16% in the quarter, of that total, agricultural volume up 21% was our second highest quarter ever and was led by increased shipments of ethanol, up 23%, export grain up 5200 carloads or nearly 450% and fertilizers up 128%."
         However, the big story was March, which saw extraordinary growth, up 19% over last year, way beyond expected.  The conference call talks about it, but the full impact of the data isn't evident unless you look at the slides (www.nscorp.com/nscorphtml/pdf/1q-2010-al...): agriculture up 25%, metals up 31%, chemicals up 30%,  and intermodal up 24%.  
         The data shows a bullish market in agriculture, metals, and chemicals, boding well for the economy. 
        

    Disclosure: no positions
    Tags: NSC
    May 16 6:10 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.