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Stephen Rosenman
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I enjoy analyzing the financial health of companies and pointing out areas the market is either not recognizing or ignoring. A long time investor, I put my money where my mouth is. That's why I'm passionate about my positions. I trumpet companies I believe in and back my articles up with data... More
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  • Do The Housing Permits Indicate A Housing Recovery Is At Hand?
        Hidden in the slew of news today, GE earnings, Bank of America, housings starts, was a hidden gem, one that portends well for the economy and ravaged housing industry:  March's unadjusted home building permits (www.census.gov/const/bpua.pdf).
        Certainly housing starts were good with seasonally adjusted starts at 626,000, better than expected 610,000.

       But it is the unadjusted monthly permits that wow us.  March permits are up 42.5% for all housing permits over 2009.  March is up 42.2% over February's. The breakdown of permits for 1 unit dwellings looks great, whether it's in the Northeast 15%, South 48%, or West 37%.  However, it's the Midwest building permits for single family homes that drop the drawers:  they have almost doubled from February.  The data on housing permits indicates a strong housing market is on its way, something that will play well for DHI, TOL, BZH, HOV, NVR, KBH among others.


     
        


     

    Disclosure: Long the home builders
    Tags: DHI, TOL, BZH, HOV, NVR, KBH
    Apr 16 11:25 AM | Link | Comment!
  • North American Currencies In Lock Step Climb
    The currency markets have shifted to the Americas.  The Western Hemisphere is the place to be in forex.  Brazil, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico have been handily beating the Europeans and Japanese these past 3 months. Usually, continents don't rise in such lock step.  In particular, note, how the Mexican peso has been on a tear. 

    Disclosure: No position
    Apr 05 7:29 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple vs. RIMM

       Research in Motion (RIMM) got slaughtered when it missed its earnings.  Investors debated the gross margins, weighed the guidance, opined on the growing subscriber base.   Hey, none of the above should be the important number.  Market share? Should that be our focus?  After all, as RIMM points out, it's the number one seller of smart phones in the United States. No, that isn't the key number that leads RIMM into the future. 
       What RIMM doesn't say (and, as far as I can tell, no one else has noted) is that Apple has surpassed them in total smart phone revenues.  This quarter RIMM reported sales of $4.1 billion.   Apple surpassed them, selling $4.6 billion worth of iPhones in Q4 2009 and, more recently, $5.6 billion in Q1 2010.  Remember the iPhone didn't exist until mid 2007.  IPhone sales have gone from zero to $5.6 billion in about 900 days.  It's very hard to compete against that explosive growth.  The key metric to focus on is money.  And, here, Apple has already left the pack far behind. 



     



    Disclosure: long AAPL
    Apr 01 8:08 PM | Link | Comment!
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