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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Continues To Post Encouraging Results [View article]
    This one (ALNY).
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    The tuner content increase is tied to multi-room networking, WiFi and things of that nature.
    Dec 20, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyclacel Now An Exercise In Futility [View article]
    I think ego is far and away the biggest reason why. And to be honest, I think we've all seen a fair bit of trolling and mocking when people *do* actually admit mistakes.

    Truth is, though, the only word that springs to mind when someone claims that they've never made a bad pick in biotech is "liar".
    Dec 20, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of Business Problems Past Visit Accuray Again [View article]
    My piece? lol
    I don't know ... nothing I'm aware of in terms of sell-side coverage, product announcements, or reimbursement. Could just be an institution buying a position and getting sloppy or maybe a bank put it on a list for 2015 buys.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    To add extra details.

    3b) The per-STB tuner content is shooting up, and BRCM is well-placed to exploit that.

    5b) I use a higher discount rate to capture some of the GAAP/non-GAAP risk, and my EV/rev multiple is based on projected GAAP margins.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philips Looks To Long-Time Laggard Volcano To Perk Up Its Healthcare Biz [View article]
    Thanks! Appreciate it!
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    1) Acknowledging a risk is not the same thing as assuming a high probability of its occurrence.

    2) I said at multiple points that BRCM has a bad history with large M&A. NetLogic was a large M&A deal. Connect the dots.

    3) Content value per box in STBs is set to grow.

    4) A few years back TI launched a restructuring program in which getting out of non-core businesses (particularly mobile).

    5) I was clear about how I value BRCM. Discounted FCF and EV/rev.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    Thanks David. Now they just need to convince the Street that their high-end connectivity business has staying power.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ghosts Of Business Problems Past Visit Accuray Again [View article]
    Thanks! I really appreciate that.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyclacel Now An Exercise In Futility [View article]
    We've all been there!
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Priorities Leading To Better Outcomes For Broadcom [View article]
    thanks Mike!
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Receptos Could Meet With A More Positive Reception [View article]
    Receptos has come along nicely since the original article, with two meaningful clinical trial updates that have improved the odds of clinical and commercial success. Receptos increasingly looks as though it has a very exciting drug in RPC 1063 given that it appears efficacious in treating both multiple sclerosis and ulcerative colitis. Receptos will also be exploring the use of 1063 in Crohn's disease and is still developing RPC 4046 for eosinophilic esophagitis.

    In multiple sclerosis, data from the RADIANCE study has supported that notion that 1063 is roughly as effective as Novartis's drug Gilenya in reducing lesions and relapses, but with a better safety profile. Receptos is underway with enrollment in the Phase III RADIANCE study and will begin enrollment for the second Phase III study (SUNBEAM) later this year or in early 2015. Both studies should have data read-outs in 2017. Depending upon the results of a Phase III study that Novartis is conducting for Gilenya in PPMS, Receptos may begin a study in this indication as well.

    Early data from the TOUCHSTONE Phase II study in ulcerative colitis produced an 8-week remission rate (16%) on par with drugs like Humira, Simponi, and Entyvio. Longer-term maintenance data won't be available until 2015, but it is very likely that Receptos will move 1063 into Phase III studies. While the data so far do not suggest that 1063 will revolutionize UC/CD treatment from the standpoint of efficacy, the convenience of an oral medication and the safety benefits argue for the drug having $1 billion potential in ulcerative colitis, and potentially a similar amount for Crohn's disease.

    Receptos is also continuing to develop 4046 for the rare condition eosinophilic esophagitis and management has indicated that it should have a lead development compound identified from its oral GLP-1R PAM program in 2015.

    The valuation of Receptos shares is now much closer to fair value, but additional clinical data on its compounds can unlock more value (by favorably altering the odds of approval and/or market share) and the company is now a much more attractive potential licensing partner and/or acquisition candidate.
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due [View article]
    I'm sorry, but no, I'm not going to go into the level of detail you request. I do not share my models at that level of detail.
    Jul 13, 2014. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due [View article]
    The change in valuation on Lalor and Constancia is due overwhelmingly to the change in share count after the Augusta deal.

    Reed is still in my valuation. I simply did not include mention of it in the article, as I do not include the same level of detail in non-Top Idea pieces. And the debt still "features" in my valuation, again I simply did not make an explicit mention of it.
    Jul 13, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Companies Offers Growth, Upside, And Risk [View article]
    It's not just the ownership structure; everything ETE does is complex.
    Jul 12, 2014. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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