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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • Despite Some Challenging Markets, Microsemi Continues To Move Forward [View article]
    Thanks for the explanation. Agreed that 10%+ FCF growth is aggressive, but I think the combination of margin leverage and capex leverage will get them there. But we'll see...

    Oh, and I do account for the stock-based compensation, but through an adjusted FD share count. Not suggesting that they arrive at the same answer, but wanted to clarify that point since it is relevant to the FCF analysis.
    Jan 27, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Latest Stumble An Opportunity At Altera? [View article]
    Seems to vary with the company and the specific application. I don't disagree that the general premise is the shift away from ASIC/ASSP
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Some Challenging Markets, Microsemi Continues To Move Forward [View article]
    Not sure how you get $150M, but I'm starting with an estimate for this FY of $228M, growing at a long-term annualized rate of more than 10.X%, with OPM leverage and leverage tied to lower capex spending (from its fab agreement w/ INTC) providing the bulk of the upside beyond rev growth.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Some Challenging Markets, Microsemi Continues To Move Forward [View article]
    I look at cash flows (and to a lesser extent GAAP OPM and rev). I pay no attention to what they report as GAAP/non-GAAP EPS.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Third Looks Undervalued, But Not Without Some Reasons [View article]
    Very unlikely.
    Jan 24, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PNC Financial Running A More Cautious, Steady Long-Term Plan [View article]
    You'll have to wait for the 10-K for an exact number. Based upon what they do disclose, it's <10% of revenue and <20% of income for the fourth quarter.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Shares Spin Out On Weakness In Product Sales [View article]
    Thanks Mike!
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Has Driven Value Through The Clinic [View article]
    I believe the cost of Fabrazyme is in the neighborhood of $200K/yr
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celldex Therapeutics Still Building Its Immuno-Oncology Story [View article]
    Thanks. I have to be at the cancer center tomorrow again tomorrow. I'll see if I can get any comments from the oncologist.
    Jan 20, 2015. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Still The Heart Of Middleby's Story [View article]
    If you're primarily asking whether MIDD can buy them, the answer is that I don't think so - unless MTW would be willing to take a large equity component (which they might...).

    If they're sold to private equity, the buyer could look to cut costs, boost margins, and/or do additional deals.

    If they're spun as an independent company ... then a lot depends upon how they structure the deal. An independent MTW could be a more aggressive bidder in the market.
    Jan 20, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Still The Heart Of Middleby's Story [View article]
    I'm hoping I might be able to take advantage of some of that volatility at some point (no offense intended, as that does of course mean a temporary decline in a large position of yours).
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growth Still The Heart Of Middleby's Story [View article]
    I don't think it's a priority.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trial Data Add Little Clarity And Much Confusion To Conatus [View article]
    You know, that latter point is a really good one. At a minimum, it's going to put a premium on ID'ing pts at a stage where enrollment is worthwhile.

    As for the question of mgmt failure ... I think they could have communicated the problems with the trial in a better fashion. I think if they'd lowered the expectations previously (with more specificity that so few pts made it to the halfway point), it would have gone over better.

    I'm going to have mull over that question of whether ACLF really even is a viable target. I originally thought about that in terms of patient selection issues, but you may be right that it fundamentally undermines this indication.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Core Ops Showing Some Progress [View article]
    Because the GM Chevy is trading below Blue Book value, while the Mercedes is trading at/above Blue Book, and the "Chevy" is highly levered to what could prove to be a lucrative income improvement opportunity.
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citigroup On The Right Track, But It's Not A Fast Lane [View article]
    If you cannot earn your cost of capital, you will erode tangible book value. And yes, if they cannot earn their cost of capital they *should* shut down and return the money to shareholders.
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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