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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • Receptos Could Meet With A More Positive Reception [View article]
    Receptos has come along nicely since the original article, with two meaningful clinical trial updates that have improved the odds of clinical and commercial success. Receptos increasingly looks as though it has a very exciting drug in RPC 1063 given that it appears efficacious in treating both multiple sclerosis and ulcerative colitis. Receptos will also be exploring the use of 1063 in Crohn's disease and is still developing RPC 4046 for eosinophilic esophagitis.

    In multiple sclerosis, data from the RADIANCE study has supported that notion that 1063 is roughly as effective as Novartis's drug Gilenya in reducing lesions and relapses, but with a better safety profile. Receptos is underway with enrollment in the Phase III RADIANCE study and will begin enrollment for the second Phase III study (SUNBEAM) later this year or in early 2015. Both studies should have data read-outs in 2017. Depending upon the results of a Phase III study that Novartis is conducting for Gilenya in PPMS, Receptos may begin a study in this indication as well.

    Early data from the TOUCHSTONE Phase II study in ulcerative colitis produced an 8-week remission rate (16%) on par with drugs like Humira, Simponi, and Entyvio. Longer-term maintenance data won't be available until 2015, but it is very likely that Receptos will move 1063 into Phase III studies. While the data so far do not suggest that 1063 will revolutionize UC/CD treatment from the standpoint of efficacy, the convenience of an oral medication and the safety benefits argue for the drug having $1 billion potential in ulcerative colitis, and potentially a similar amount for Crohn's disease.

    Receptos is also continuing to develop 4046 for the rare condition eosinophilic esophagitis and management has indicated that it should have a lead development compound identified from its oral GLP-1R PAM program in 2015.

    The valuation of Receptos shares is now much closer to fair value, but additional clinical data on its compounds can unlock more value (by favorably altering the odds of approval and/or market share) and the company is now a much more attractive potential licensing partner and/or acquisition candidate.
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due [View article]
    I'm sorry, but no, I'm not going to go into the level of detail you request. I do not share my models at that level of detail.
    Jul 13, 2014. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Execution Helping Hudbay Minerals Get Its Due [View article]
    The change in valuation on Lalor and Constancia is due overwhelmingly to the change in share count after the Augusta deal.

    Reed is still in my valuation. I simply did not include mention of it in the article, as I do not include the same level of detail in non-Top Idea pieces. And the debt still "features" in my valuation, again I simply did not make an explicit mention of it.
    Jul 13, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Companies Offers Growth, Upside, And Risk [View article]
    It's not just the ownership structure; everything ETE does is complex.
    Jul 12, 2014. 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Companies Offers Growth, Upside, And Risk [View article]
    I just think that ETE has a more fully-developed strategy (owning GP interests of multiple MLPs), a more robust development pipeline, and a more interesting collection of assets. I also believe they have a lower cost of capital and less execution risk. As I said in my prior comment, I think WMB is moving in a direction where it will be ETE-like in the coming years.
    Jul 11, 2014. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Companies Offers Growth, Upside, And Risk [View article]
    I think ETE is the better company. WMB is cheaper today and could become ETE-like over time. Honestly, I'd probably invest in both but I'd say WMB is the higher risk/higher reward pick today.
    Jul 11, 2014. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Controversial Gazprom Still Cheap, Still Risky [View article]
    It's early... the comments may show up yet...
    Jul 10, 2014. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Energy Targeting Multiple Growth Plays [View article]
    Perhaps part of the reason is that they're not as well-quantified yet?
    Jul 9, 2014. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oneok Partners Still Looking At Significant Growth Opportunities [View article]
    This could be of interest for that:
    http://bit.ly/1ouBrpb
    Jul 7, 2014. 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners And Equity Offer Complicated Value [View article]
    I'm sorry, but I do not reveal/discuss that level of detail in my models.
    Jul 7, 2014. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dover Still Excellent, But Not Currently A Bargain [View article]
    You'd think so (and I don't mean to imply that you're not serious or sincere), but those pieces don't actually do that well in terms of pageviews.

    Now, doing it just because it's a good piece and it would be helpful in my own investing *IS* a good reason ... so once I knock my backlog back to a more manageable level, that's something I'm going to look into doing
    Jul 6, 2014. 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dover Still Excellent, But Not Currently A Bargain [View article]
    Yeah, it's not a bad story (has the turnaround angle too). It's the one that jumps out from my sheets as the most expensive, though since I rarely have all of the stocks I follow equally "fresh" there's definitely a margin of error.
    Jul 6, 2014. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dover Still Excellent, But Not Currently A Bargain [View article]
    "You write "Dover isn't the most expensive quality industrial out there ...". Which, in your view, is?"

    Probably Colfax.
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keppel Corp.'s Frustrating Lack Of Progress [View article]
    Thanks Tom. Much appreciated
    Jul 5, 2014. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Copco Is Great Everywhere But In Value [View article]
    Pretty sure Atlas is the leader ... I think this is an area where Gardner Denver is relatively strong as well.
    Jul 5, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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