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Stephen Simpson, CFA  

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  • Arch Coal Holding On For An Appalachian-Driven Rebound [View article]
    I'm sorry, but no. ARLP hasn't been part of my regular watchlist in a long time and between my wife's cancer battle and keeping up with my regular workload, I don't think it is realistic to add a new one to the queue right now.
    May 5, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Holding On For An Appalachian-Driven Rebound [View article]
    ANR has less debt, but a lot lower EBITDA/FCF over the next few years and a less convenient maturity schedule.

    I think ACI's debt is something like 14x '15e EBITDA, while ANR's is about 21x. That's not a foolproof metric, of course, but that's part of the reason I'm less concerned about ACI's liquidity - the PRB/W.Bit assets will help them pay their bills for longer (relative to ANR).
    May 5, 2015. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cost Reductions Alone Can't Save Alpha Natural Resources [View article]
    Simple answer is - it's on the list of stocks I like to follow and I hadn't written about it in a while
    May 5, 2015. 08:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BRF Tastes Better Than It Looks [View article]
    Much of what CZZ does is commodity (sugar/ethanol), but they have pretty significant cost advantages and commodity businesses aren't bad when you have enduring low-cost production edges. Also, I'd note that their logistics, retailing (fuel/c-stores), and gas distribution operations offset that to some extent.

    The cost of labor advantage for BRFS is significant, and I think their production costs will decline as internal logistics within Brazil improve (see above - Cosan).
    May 3, 2015. 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ABB Surprises, But Definitely Not In The Clear Yet [View article]
    I need to do more work (and relatively quickly) on ROK.
    May 3, 2015. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lexicon Undervalued As It Approaches A Major Event [View article]
    Good question. I think the answer is that under the Hatch-Waxman Act a drug company can get back half the time it takes to go from IND to NDA up to 5 yrs. That wouldn't be specific to the indication, though, as I think it applies just to the first approval of the molecule covered by the patent.
    May 1, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play [View article]
    Well, 60 isn't a bad time to retire ... particularly if you get a good enough offer to ride into the sunset.
    Apr 29, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broadcom Still Undervalued, And With Cards To Play [View article]
    I'm betting on INTC, but I agree that M&A may make a lot of the "what happens next" discussion moot.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultratech Surprises To The Good, But Not Where Investors Want To See It [View article]
    It sounds as though it's the total cost issue. I've heard some argue that the competing systems are faster, but then I've heard the exact opposite from other people. I don't believe that UTEK has ever tried to position their system as the cheaper alternative on a list-price basis, but rather that users make up the difference from better yields. Apparently the rival systems haven't been as bad for yields as UTEK thought they would be.

    Management had been trying to play off the LSA issue with customers delaying orders, but I think it's pretty clear that Intel and TSMC have moved on without them (at 14/16). Samsung and GloFo could still "save the day", though, as I don't think they've committed to the capex yet. Those are the orders that need to start showing up in 2015.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ACE Limited Earns Its Premium, But Excess Capital Weighs On Returns [View article]
    Thanks EM. It'll be interesting to see what happens if/when there's a really bad cat year.
    Apr 25, 2015. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MOCON Has Some Headwinds For 2015, But A Good Underlying Business [View article]
    Thanks guys.
    One thing I'd add that I learned literally last night - their equipment is really well-regarded, but pretty expensive. Doesn't change my thesis or conclusions, but just a little piece of info to put out there...
    Apr 18, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 May Be Tough, But BorgWarner Is Tougher [View article]
    I think US build rates can hold fairly steady around this level, with BWA leveraging higher per-unit content to drive most of the revenue growth (so, price/mix vs. vol). But you're right about the cyclical part - "it's different this time" is a good way to lose money.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allison Transmission Hits Pause [View article]
    They're working on some interesting tech themselves that could have applications in that sector (tech they licensed from Fallbrook, I believe). But I agree that that is a meaningful concern. I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to make an acquisition to expand their capabilities there.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MSC Industrial Suffering From Weakening Markets And Execution Issues [View article]
    Thanks James. I appreciate the kind words.
    Apr 10, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HollySys Needs To Ease Concerns Over Slowing Automation And Rail Orders [View article]
    Nothing I've seen
    Apr 8, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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1,650 Comments
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