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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • RF Micro Devices Near A Major Transformation [View article]
    BUT ... if the deal would fall apart for some reason (very unlikely, I grant), TQNT would likely get another bid. The proxy said that there were other interested parties. RFMD would be hard-pressed to find another deal that would offer as much value.
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Share, Prices, And Costs Seem To Be Working In Nucor's Long-Term Favor [View article]
    Thanks Ray
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Partners And Equity Offer Complicated Value [View article]
    Thanks for signing up!
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Popular's Credit Is Getting Better Faster Than Its Market's [View article]
    The de-risking of the TARP repayment would add a little more to my fair value, but likely not more than $2 or $3 (I say "likely" because my model is not in front of me now).
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Popular's Credit Is Getting Better Faster Than Its Market's [View article]
    Yes, I would agree that 20% probably understates it ... though that is mitigated by the "informal" economy to some extent
    Jun 20, 2014. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Popular's Credit Is Getting Better Faster Than Its Market's [View article]
    Labor force participation (Forbes):
    http://onforb.es/1hoekKS

    Govt employment (21% of identified labor force):
    http://1.usa.gov/1uHJpxu
    Jun 19, 2014. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glencore PLC: A Mining Major With A Different Approach [View article]
    I don't think they'll do anything large. They've already "reallocated" a portion of it with that Caracal acquisition and they've made it clear they'd like to buy more.
    Jun 19, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BASF Has Lagged On A Relative Basis, But Excels On Its Own Merits [View article]
    Mike,
    I personally think that the advice to not pay attention to taxes is bad advice. If you're going to have to pay 20%+ of your profits to Uncle Sugar, that has to factor into the decision. If BASF is 10% overvalued, but still structurally sound, I think it may make sense to sit tight unless/until you have a better idea.

    But, in the interests of full disclosure, I refer to my investment approach as "enlightened torpor", so I'm generally reluctant to leave a good position.
    Jun 19, 2014. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BASF Has Lagged On A Relative Basis, But Excels On Its Own Merits [View article]
    Thanks, TNflash, I appreciate that. And I like that point on treating it like an index fund.
    Jun 18, 2014. 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Less Bad Is Good Enough For Cheung Kong [View article]
    Nicklaas,

    #1 - I believe you are mistaken. The Li family & trust owns about 43% of Cheung Kong. Maybe you were thinking of CKI, which Hutchison does own a majority of?

    #2 - strong insider ownership is likely a part of the discount, yes.

    #3 - a little bit, but not too much in my opinion

    #4 - I think some of them could be larger businesses in the future. A lot of those small companies are created so as to limit liability to the larger parent company
    Jun 18, 2014. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multi-Color Light On Growth, But Stronger On Margins [View article]
    Thanks Spikes
    Jun 18, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    Sorry you feel that way. We'll have to agree to disagree, as I see no benefit in arguing with you about this.
    Jun 18, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    My risk weightings are all-in with respect to failing to achieve my peak revenue estimate. The biggest factor in that is clinical risk.

    Insofar as my Pompe program odds being too low, they are consistent with the rates of clinical success for preclinical programs. About 15% of drug candidates that make it through Phase 1 are eventually approved and FOLD's Pompe program hasn't even managed that yet, so I believe 10% is appropriate. If you believe that their preclinical work justifies a higher weighting, you should be more bullish. I don't and am not.

    Hope that helps.
    Jun 18, 2014. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Grantley Open The Gates For Mellanox's Growth? [View article]
    Thanks Ashraf
    Jun 16, 2014. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    BB,

    I'm sorry I wasn't clear about the upside if 012 succeeds. It is definitely more than $0.30. I can't say how much I'd adjust my assumptions without seeing the actual data, but if it's "good ... but doesn't answer every single question", I would probably raise my odds on migalastat reaching $150M as monotherapy to at least 50%, and that would add about $0.90 to my estimated fair value.

    Basically, every 5% change in the odds of the drug achieving $150M in sales is worth about $0.30. Hope that helps.
    Jun 14, 2014. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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