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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    My risk weightings are all-in with respect to failing to achieve my peak revenue estimate. The biggest factor in that is clinical risk.

    Insofar as my Pompe program odds being too low, they are consistent with the rates of clinical success for preclinical programs. About 15% of drug candidates that make it through Phase 1 are eventually approved and FOLD's Pompe program hasn't even managed that yet, so I believe 10% is appropriate. If you believe that their preclinical work justifies a higher weighting, you should be more bullish. I don't and am not.

    Hope that helps.
    Jun 18 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Grantley Open The Gates For Mellanox's Growth? [View article]
    Thanks Ashraf
    Jun 16 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    BB,

    I'm sorry I wasn't clear about the upside if 012 succeeds. It is definitely more than $0.30. I can't say how much I'd adjust my assumptions without seeing the actual data, but if it's "good ... but doesn't answer every single question", I would probably raise my odds on migalastat reaching $150M as monotherapy to at least 50%, and that would add about $0.90 to my estimated fair value.

    Basically, every 5% change in the odds of the drug achieving $150M in sales is worth about $0.30. Hope that helps.
    Jun 14 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Keeps Building For The Next Act [View article]
    I look at those as "gravy". Not to be ignored, I agree, but not likely to be a major profit contributor for a little while yet.
    Jun 13 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overlooked Hurco Still A Good Play On Europe's Recovery [View article]
    I certainly wouldn't mind things being easier for an acquirer!
    It's also the case, though, that excess cash pulls down returns.
    Jun 13 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    My track record is on my blog site.
    Jun 12 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    My $0.02 - I don't invest in biotechs like FOLD for a 17% gain. So, I'd be inclined to hold through 012, but that's how I invest and your mileage may vary.
    Jun 12 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amicus Therapeutics Still A "Show Me" Story [View article]
    I "fail to mention" because I don't care and don't believe it is relevant. Unless Hedge Fund Perceptive Advisors has a flawless investment track record, their involvement is no more, or less, valuable than any other institutional investor.
    Jun 12 02:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overlooked Hurco Still A Good Play On Europe's Recovery [View article]
    At the worst of the recession, their FCF was negative $5M/year. There's a difference between saving for a raining day and Noah's flood.
    Jun 12 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overlooked Hurco Still A Good Play On Europe's Recovery [View article]
    Good stuff. Thanks for sharing that!
    Jun 11 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching Up On PowerSecure [View article]
    Now, if you could just go tell the trolls and hate-mailers that! lol
    Jun 11 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching Up On PowerSecure [View article]
    Lousy model comes home to roost + over-popularity with the retail crowd?
    Jun 11 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkcell Executing On The Ground, But Litigation Still A Sizable Hurdle [View article]
    No. They have to wait until 2015 because it has to be two missed meetings since the passage of the law (this was the first missed meeting since the law was finalized). But I agree that the ownership situation may resolve and render that moot. It is testament to how messed up the situation is that the involvement of the Turkish govt is something for which investors are hoping.
    Jun 11 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    They (mgmt) says they'll have Motorola profitable in 12-18 mos. Cutting 70% immediately is probably too aggressive, but I think mgmt will surprise with how much they're able to cut. Google has run Motorola in a manner totally different than Lenovo will, and I think those results will show up pretty quickly (but not immediately).
    Jun 10 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Geely Auto, Opportunity Comes Ugly [View article]
    Brave ... and so far, absolutely right as the stock is down about 25% from the date of this piece.
    Jun 9 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,543 Comments
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