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  • My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
    Yes ... sort of.
    It's not overpriced on the current business/business prospects, and there are some potential growth levers that are likely not in the price today.
    Jan 1, 2013. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
    Sadly, Alan, they'll only publish it in English!
    Jan 1, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
    At the risk of shameless self-promotion, I have a FCFS piece in the editorial hopper at Seeking Alpha, so that might be coming out in a couple of days.
    Jan 1, 2013. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
    Nope, I'm Self-Interested. Trust me, the level of access/conversation never got to a point where politics would have entered into the conversation! lol
    Jan 1, 2013. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 20 Picks To Start 2013 [View article]
    Curious to see how MASI works out.

    When I was a sell-sider, they were hands-down the most unpleasant and unprofessional company I ever dealt with. If you weren't from Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan, you could just as soon f*ck off. Clearly that has no direct bearing on their ability to run a med-tech business, but it makes me wonder how many enemies they've made over the years.
    Jan 1, 2013. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Turkcell's Upcoming Transformation Enough Reason To Hold The Shares? [View article]
    Thanks, ss
    Dec 27, 2012. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FutureFuel Looks Undervalued, But Mind The Volatility [View article]
    Anirudh -
    Hard to answer #1 definitively. They seem to have done a reasonable job so far and they own more than half the shares. That said, there's very little industry-relevant experience at the highest levels.

    As for #2, I can't really say "why" other than that mgmt either thinks that there's no better use for the capital or (or and/or) they want to take some capital out of the business. I think it's a mistake (as I said in the piece), but they have the balance sheet to support it.
    Dec 27, 2012. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Boom's Unexpected Beneficiaries: Railcar Manufacturers [View article]
    Bret - Another "pro-rail" argument (and one that appeared to factor in the recent ONEOK cancellation/deferment) is that producers seem to like the flexibility that rail gives them. Instead of being committed to large, over-supplied hubs, they can ship to places with higher differentials. Basically, using rails to arb the differentials.
    Dec 24, 2012. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does SABMiller Taste Great, Or Is The Valuation Too Filling? [View article]
    I think they would move if they thought another large brewer was going buy Molson and try to unwind the MillerCoors venture. More probable, though, would be that they simply can't find any more high-value targets and decide that the margin leverage inherent in TAP would be worthwhile.
    Dec 21, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is America Movil Still A LatAm Growth Story? [View article]
    AT&T holds "AA" and "L" shares through a Mexican trust.
    Dec 18, 2012. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Occultation Of Rigel Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Be careful about including cash in that assessment - the value of those earlier-stage compounds is predicated on ongoing development, which eats into that cash.

    I know there's a lot debate and/or difference of opinion on including cash in biotech valuations, but I usually exclude it unless the compounds in question are in development partnerships w/ someone else picking up the tab.
    Dec 13, 2012. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Occultation Of Rigel Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Off the top of my head, about $4 - $5 (excluding cash).
    Dec 13, 2012. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Occultation Of Rigel Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Nope. Not the only drug, but the others are pretty early stage and probably not worth much more than a $1/sh apiece.

    I don't mean this to sound smug or sarcastic, but "seems like very little downside from here" are dangerous words in biotech.
    Dec 13, 2012. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YM BioSciences's Strange Journey Comes To A Strange Conclusion [View article]
    WtT -
    I'm not quite sure I understand your meaning as to "if their competitor's drug didn't sell well as expected". Jakafi has been something of a disappointment so far, so I'm not sure if you're referring to that or if you think Jakafi has actually done better than expected...

    Do I think it's enough? Well, as I said in this piece and my prior one (from September, I think), I thought the stock was worth $4-ish on the assumption of 40% share in the U.S.

    Now, if my cost basis was $0.40 I'd probably be happy too ... but wouldn't you rather have a roughly 1000% return? It's not a bad deal (like I said, I think it's fair relative to what Sanofi paid for TargeGen), but I'm not going to pretend that my ego wouldn't have liked to have seen GILD see the same value as I did!
    Dec 12, 2012. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should The Amylin Example Discourage Amarin Shareholders? [View article]
    No, you didn't miss any head-to-head studies. DURATION-6, though, showed an uncommonly high HbA1c reduction for Victoza and an uncommonly low one for Bydrureon.

    No question that it was a failed study for Amylin and a major screw-up from a marketing perspective, but most endocrinologists and diabetes specialists I've spoken to have commented that they believe that the totality of studies for the two drugs points to superiority for Bydureon. And I agree with that position.
    Dec 12, 2012. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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