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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • Hologic Seems A Little Underrated [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words.

    The valuation on HOLX frustrates me. I usually look for a min 30% below my price target, and HOLX is at about 25% under now. So ... do you make an exception to the rule or go look for something else? Never an easy answer for those questions.

    Of the higher-quality names I've been following closely lately, only St. Jude meets that minimum, though Stryker is close at 27% and my estimates there feel conservative to me.

    As you might have noticed, bigger healthcare stocks have done reasonably well this year, so there aren't a lot of bargains left. If you want significantly undervalued names, you have to significantly up your risk tolerance and look at names like ANGO, ARAY (which I own), and BMTI (which I also own).
    Aug 19 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Another Sprint In The Market, A Company With Massive Upside Potential? [View article]
    Good luck w/ LVLT. It's often struck me as a company with a great future in its past. Maybe, finally, they have a plan that can work.

    Enjoyed the article, though.
    Aug 17 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere Smacks Into The Wall Of Worry [View article]
    Retail growth-by-acquisition stories (funded with debt) can be really dangerous. They tend to shine brightly for a while and then implode.

    Not saying that that's what's going to happen to TITN, but I've seen that pattern before.
    Aug 15 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Big Move: What's Behind It? [View article]
    It'd be really uncommon (if virtually unheard of) to see a deal prior to launch.

    The typical buyout sweetspots are between Ph2 and Ph3, between Ph3 and NDA filing, and about 9-12 mo post-launch. In the later case, it de-risks the process for the buyer.

    Given the nature/terms of the partnership, it would/will make economic sense for Eisai to do the deal if there's real demand (ie. good scrip growth)
    Aug 15 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty Is The Trade-Off For Salix's Appealing Price [View article]
    Depends on the buyer, really.
    A company that doesn't really play in GI right now could look at SLXP as a "drop shipment" and just pare away the superfluous G&A. A company like PFE, though, would probably cherry-pick the salesforce and fire a lot of people.

    Also, I might give them a little slack on the diversification process. It's tough to diversify away from your top drug when it's still growing approx 30%yoy. It's true that that's a vulnerability, but being chained to a fast-growing drug with few competitors isn't the worst fate for a drug co.
    Aug 15 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uncertainty Is The Trade-Off For Salix's Appealing Price [View article]
    Thanks Alan!

    I'd be shocked if this company didn't get bought at some point in the next 2-3 yrs. Not only for the reason you mentioned (CEO's age), but also just because you don't see many specialty pharmas stay independent. For every VRX or ENDP, I'd say 10 co's sell out along the way.
    Aug 15 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elan's Split Will Create 2 Very Different Companies [View article]
    I'm not an expert on Prana (not yet, anyway), but I suspect it's because of the slow pace of the studies and the low probability of success. If biotech is a casino, AD is the roulette wheel (the lowest/worst odds in the house)
    Aug 15 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching Up With Celldex Therapeutics [View article]
    Thanks everybody for your support. I really appreciate it.
    Aug 14 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elan's Split Will Create 2 Very Different Companies [View article]
    Well, it's been an approved indication since 2008 and they've had minimal sales there, so I don't see why that would change much. The label for the Crohn's indications isn't the easiest or most favorable, since a lot of CD patients have difficulty tapering off the steroids (which, I believe, is required for Tysabri use).
    Aug 14 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brasil Foods A Bipolar Brazil Play [View article]
    Yikes, Nick ... looks like you have had a challenging year with that much Brazil exposure. Appreciate the thoughts, and good call (pardon the pun) on the options strategy.
    Aug 14 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Copco: Maybe The Best Industrial You Don't Know [View article]
    Which might be relevant if Atlas Copco got more than a few percentage points of its revenue from U.S. coal miners.
    Aug 13 04:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novo Nordisk Still A Top-Notch Healthcare Growth Story [View article]
    Paul - I do, but it will take time and the Victoza/degludec could prove to be a very "sticky" combo. Also, remember that Victoza is less than 20% of the diabetes business
    Aug 13 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alzheimer's Drug Bapi Looks Done (Again) [View article]
    Thanks, Noreika.
    Aug 7 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lexicon Needs Differentiated Data To Drive Deals And Value [View article]
    Then we'll have to agree to disagree, James. I don't wish to debate this any further with you.
    Aug 7 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lexicon Needs Differentiated Data To Drive Deals And Value [View article]
    James, I'd be careful with "money in the bank" wrt 1032 - it's unclear to me that there's enough market potential to even justify clinical development. And while 1033 may be distinct, 1031 wasn't impressive enough to encourage me towards optimism at this point.

    We'll see, though. I've just never found any alpha in over-estimating the pipeline value of an early-stage biotech.
    Aug 6 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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