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Stephen Simpson, CFA  

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  • Don't Judge Monsanto By A Slow Quarter [View article]
    Given MON's share in North America and South America, as well as its leading global position in vegetable seeds (SYT is #2), I find your statement about SYT's "far better global reach" completely unsupportable.

    Emerging markets are indeed more than 40% of SYT's revenue and they are strong in rice (where MON is not), but SYT has 9% global share; making it #3 in the world (and has only gained 2 share points over the last seven or eight years). That's not even close.

    If/when Monsanto dedicates itself to competing in the rice market (which it has said it is looking to do in 2015-2017), Syngenta may well find itself in serious trouble.
    Oct 4, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Judge Monsanto By A Slow Quarter [View article]
    Sorry, should have said "largest at the time".

    I don't disagree that DuPont stepped in it in a big way ... I just don't like depending upon judges and juries for upside. Besides, even a $3B award works out to about $6/sh ... so not really a game-changer in my book (though I won't refuse a special dividend!).
    Oct 3, 2012. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Judge Monsanto By A Slow Quarter [View article]
    Funfun -
    I wouldn't be so sure that the penalty will be increased. If I'm not mistaken, that's the largest judgement of its kind so far, and I think the general expectation is that it will be reduced on appeal.

    Don't disagree that MON is well ahead in the lab and in the fields, though.
    Oct 3, 2012. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fonar: At Last, Light At The End Of The Tunnel? [View article]
    I've followed this one off and on since '95 and I definitely remember that win against GE. Never actually owned it; seems like this is a company that can't get out of its own way.
    Oct 2, 2012. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is ImmunoGen More Than T-DM1? [View article]
    Gary,

    Of course you're free to believe what you'd like, but I don't think there's any way the royalties go into 9%. The company has never suggested anything of the sort. More likely, the tiers are 3-4%, 4-5%, and 5-6%. You could be right, of course, but I don't agree that "tiered mid-single digit royalties" means 9%.

    And as for testing in other cancers, gastric cancer would be the best bet, and that's a small application. There's some HER2 over-expression in uterine and ovarian cancer, but that's about 10% of the population (http://bit.ly/VdzsKX)
    Oct 2, 2012. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    Good points Rod. I think the best strategic is to pay more careful attention to valuation and trial/drug quality. I don't think it's a great time to buy iffy companies unless you have a trader's outlook.
    Oct 2, 2012. 07:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is ImmunoGen More Than T-DM1? [View article]
    Fair enough, SlumDawg, but I prefer to play it more conservative - particularly with biotech on the whole looking pretty bubbly.
    Oct 2, 2012. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Red Hat Now [View article]
    Good overview of the top-line prospects, but what do you make of their margin leverage (or lack thereof)? That's always been my biggest roadblock with these stocks - they just don't seem to be able to leverage S&M spending the way that their forerunners did at similar points in the lifecycle.
    Oct 2, 2012. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca Suspends The Buyback: Let The M&A Speculation Commence [View article]
    I think the dividend is pretty safe for the near-term. But clearly Soriot needs to fix this business if that is going to be sustainable.
    Oct 2, 2012. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca Suspends The Buyback: Let The M&A Speculation Commence [View article]
    Good call on Shire, EquiMan
    Oct 2, 2012. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca Suspends The Buyback: Let The M&A Speculation Commence [View article]
    I don't think so, Valueplay.

    The corporate chronology here (http://bit.ly/SZlRki) doesn't mention that, and the following quote from a long-ago 10-K seems to be consistent with the timeline:

    "In September 1990, Roche Holdings, Inc. (Roche)
    acquired approximately 60% of the Company's voting stock in a merger transaction (Merger). The common stock Roche acquired in the Merger and redeemable common stock subsequently purchased on the open market represented approximately 65% of the outstanding equity of the Company as of March 13, 1995. "

    As for expensive, Roche paid about 9-10x trailing sales at the time of the deal ... though it's a little harder to analyze since Roche bought about 60% upfront and then bought the rest later at a higher price (during which time Genentech grew a lot).

    Hope that answers your question(s)!
    Oct 2, 2012. 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    Michael - Thanks for the praise.

    No need to feel scourged, though. Where I was/am coming from is that, traditionally, "blockbuster" has meant a drug with $1B in revenue. That doesn't mean that a drug like Rytary isn't important to Impax, but in the lingo of biotech as used amongst the buy- and sell-side it pretty much is assumed to mean $1B.
    Oct 1, 2012. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AstraZeneca Suspends The Buyback: Let The M&A Speculation Commence [View article]
    Would you kindly quote/identify which analyst is estimating $7/sh of earnings for 2020? Thank you.
    Oct 1, 2012. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    Thanks Whitehawk
    Oct 1, 2012. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Getting Too Frothy? Investor Sentiment Suggests Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    David - I'd go with the risk-on/risk-off angle. Exchange rates are too trivial to the financials of biotechs to make that much difference, in my opinion.
    Oct 1, 2012. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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