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Stephen Simpson, CFA

 
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  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    Trailing 10yr avg FCF margin is 2.6%
    May 23 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    Exactly. Lenovo is basically saying/going to say "We can do this, earn a 2% FCF margin and keep shareholders happy ... how 'bout you?"

    At which point a lot of their rivals are going to be asking themselves "do we really want to stay in this for the long term?" A company like Apple w/ huge brand cache has nothing to worry about, but in the large percentage of the server market (where it's pretty much "a server is a server is a server...") it's going to be like Thunderdome (ie "two men enter, one man leaves").
    May 23 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    I wouldn't say they'll "slash margins". Rather, they'll just do what Lenovo does ... which is operate a lower-margin business very effectively.

    I think we're probably talking about the same thing from an end result point of view, though ...
    May 23 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    IBM, HPQ, Dell. Maybe Huawei (they'd say they are, Lenovo would say they're not).
    May 23 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    As I said in the article, they're complementary and not redundant. IBM's servers address the high end of the Chinese server market, Lenovo's address the low and mid range market.
    May 23 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    They're (IBM's server business) losing share to HP and Dell.
    May 23 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lenovo Making The Right Strategic Moves To Build Value [View article]
    I own the US-listed ADRs and have owned US ADRs of other Chinese companies with no trouble (as well as some Hong Kong-listed shares). There are some who believe there is more fraud among Chinese listed companies but I've never found that to be true (there's fraud everywhere, unfortunately).

    As for Blackberry and Lenovo... For a long time, I thought Lenovo was going to be the company that bought Blackberry; Blackberry has always been stronger w/ business customers and that fits Lenovo's model. Given the Google/Motorola transaction, that's not going to happen. Lenovo needed a brand w/ name recognition in North America and W.Europe, but they don't need two.
    May 23 07:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semperit Offers Real Value In Obscurity [View article]
    Ahh, got it. Thanks.
    May 22 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semperit Offers Real Value In Obscurity [View article]
    Given that they sold the underlying tire operations and the licenses aren't much of a revenue driver, I didn't think it was all that relevant.

    As for the mechanisms ... I think just time and patience will have a lot to do with it.
    May 22 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semperit Offers Real Value In Obscurity [View article]
    I provided the 10yr revenue CAGR and FCF margins. Not sure what else you'd like in terms of the DCF analysis (given that I don't share my discount rates). If you have the revenue growth rate and the FCF margins, you can calculate the FCF growth. The share count and net cash/debt position are easily found, so it really just comes down to deciding the discount rate you want to use.
    May 22 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orange SA Needs Market Repair To Fuel Another Leg [View article]
    The price seems a little high, but not bad. I think the concerns are more about what the French govt will demand in terms of concessions.
    May 22 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COPEL Has Enjoyed A Good Run, But Brazilian Utilities Remain Tricky [View article]
    Old news to anyone who has followed this stock at all.
    May 21 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orange SA Needs Market Repair To Fuel Another Leg [View article]
    Thanks Mike. Agreed. I'd rather see Iliad getting gobbled up, but Bouygues will help
    May 21 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COPEL Has Enjoyed A Good Run, But Brazilian Utilities Remain Tricky [View article]
    5% to 6% LT rev growth, FCF margins in the low double digits.
    May 20 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • COPEL Has Enjoyed A Good Run, But Brazilian Utilities Remain Tricky [View article]
    Thanks Vieroman.
    May 20 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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