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Stephen Simpson, CFA  

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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Competition Will Be Tough, But Clovis Oncology Has Legitimate Compounds [View article]
    I'll be curious to see how that plays out. I'm not sure the luci market is big ... but we've seen plenty of examples of drugs developed on the basis of "it works here" and then they realize "... it also works here and here".
    May 22, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Nektar Therapeutics, Value Never Comes Easy [View article]
    On the fence w/ BAX as a stock or a partner for NKTR?
    May 21, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Math Could Get Weird, But Intercept Pharmaceuticals Looks Too Cheap [View article]
    Yes, I agree. That's why I made the point about "bizarre placebo responses". I don't think there's much doubt about the basic activity of OCA. There are some questions as to its impact on fibrosis - I think the most credible bear argument is that it might not be good enough in helping severe fibrosis resolve - but I think the larger trial size will minimize the risk of "well ... we just don't know" navel-gazing at the panel meeting.
    May 21, 2015. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Math Could Get Weird, But Intercept Pharmaceuticals Looks Too Cheap [View article]
    Thanks Jim, I appreciate it.
    May 21, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Dug In For The Long Haul [View article]
    At $3/mmbtu, I don't think there are going to be too many PRB mines that are cash flow negative. There may be some, but I don't think there will be many ... and I would expect that they'd have "site-specific issues" like rail access, etc.

    I think Arch is at a point where contracted prices are about $1/ton above cash mining costs. On the whole, Arch and ANR are the high-cost producers, though, so that's where you want to watch to see signs of strain (BTU has some high-cost PRB assets, but they're about 25%-33% of the total).

    Sorry I can't answer your question in a more helpful (or granular) way ... I'd love to see the per-mine cash flows, but I just don't have access to that info.
    May 19, 2015. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cloud Peak Energy Dug In For The Long Haul [View article]
    It's a fair question, but somewhat beside the point with CLD. Most of the mines tied to bankruptcies are Appalachian, so it's more relevant to ACI, ANR, CNX, and WLT as to whether they stay open. For the most part, utilities that use CAPP or NAPP could/would switch to ILB, but they wouldn't switch to CLD and given the big differences in dispatch curves, the incremental production isn't that much of a factor for CLD positive or negative.
    May 19, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Ailing Economy Keeps Gerdau Under The Weather [View article]
    Thanks, I appreciate that!
    May 17, 2015. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil's Ailing Economy Keeps Gerdau Under The Weather [View article]
    I don't think it will be this year. I think it could improve as the year goes on, but I expect that this will be a down year overall for infrastructure investment there.
    May 17, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied World Offers A Healthy Balance Sheet, But Market Conditions Are Tough [View article]
    @EM - Haven't really had a chance to dig into AXS-PRE. Made sense to me on a superficial basis, but that and a nickel is worth $0.05, right?
    May 16, 2015. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied World Offers A Healthy Balance Sheet, But Market Conditions Are Tough [View article]
    It's tough if you don't know the space really well (and even then...). For instance, if the businesses are largely overlapping, you can usually count on a pretty decent amount of synergy from G&A and acquisition costs. If they're not overlapping, then there can still be some G&A synergy, but not as much from the acquisition costs. And then there's the question of scale - in some cases, getting bigger puts you in place to underwrite larger pieces of business that simply wouldn't have been available before.
    May 16, 2015. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied World Offers A Healthy Balance Sheet, But Market Conditions Are Tough [View article]
    I think it's likely to continue. There's a lot of capital out there and falling rates don't make underwriting attractive. What I'm less sure about is whether there will be intra-segment consolidation (a marine insurer buying another marine insurer) or consolidation aimed at entering new markets.
    May 15, 2015. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heartland Payment Once Again Going Off On Its Own [View article]
    I'm not sure it's a philosophy so much as an insanity directed along productive lines...

    My specialty used to be med-tech (I was a sell-side and buy-side analyst for close to 10yrs), but by virtue of being on the buy-side for a while I started branching out pretty early in my career.

    I think my philosophy is a mix of growth at a reasonable price, unbalanced risk-reward opportunities, evergreen quality stories, and transformative growth opportunities. I know that a really messy description, but I think it's the best I can do for explaining how it is I can own MMM and ALNY in the same portfolio.
    May 15, 2015. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novadaq Knocked Back By Looming Competition And A Tough Transition [View article]
    "Strong competition" is at best an optimistic assessment. The Hamamatsu PDE device is only for open surgeries and has barely made any impact on the market.
    May 13, 2015. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • W.R. Berkley Pushing On Through A Tough Market [View article]
    Got it. Makes sense now. Thanks for the back-and-forth.
    May 12, 2015. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • W.R. Berkley Pushing On Through A Tough Market [View article]
    Fair enough ... except that WRB invests a pretty healthy chunk in areas like real estate and energy.

    Not trying to bust your chops or anything. I think WRB is quite well-run, but I just don't think of them as a conservatively-run insurance company (I'd use that word more for ACGL-types of insurance co's).
    May 12, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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