Steve Andrew

Steve Andrew
Contributor since: 2007
Nassarius- I think you have gotten to the right place but have missed the most important part of the story: Z-wave (2 sentences in your article). Z-wave will do $25-$30mm at 70%+ GM in 14 and is growing sequentially every q. Z-wave's biggest advantage at this point is the amount of products and service providers available for the protocol. The self space at Home Depot,, and Amazon gives the protocol a nice advantage in scale compared to the other protocols.
The values of Nest and CTRL show the investment appetite of home automation companies. For now Z-wave is wrapped in the Sigma Designs wrapper (which has a history most investors can't/won't get over for good reason) and getting no valuation.
HI WD- Glad I could could help shed some light on the stock.
After the conference call this morning I think management has done a bad job managing the company's fleet. They have not divested poor performing assets fast enough and not invested in rough terrain equipment quick enough. Their crawler cranes are reliant on a highway build project from the government that may not be coming. I have sold my shares.
I agree the opportunity for them to turn around the company has a higher upside IF it happens. Howard Penny, the restaurant analyst at HedgeEye (formally at Morgan Stanley I think, WSJ top analyst award winner) commented that a PNRA-COSI tie up would be "Highly Accretive".
Just another reason why this stock should trade higher. The first QTR is going to be good on the top line because of the warmer weather, improving economy. Stutz has already hinted at that in a few of the interviews she has done.
It is how a building parabolic rise always ends. I feel bad for the average guy who isn't experienced enough to recognize this pattern and buys at the top. Everyone who understands how to trade knew the end for this wasn't IF but WHEN. The when is always the hard part.
She isn't done going down.... too much down volume....
Disconnect the stock from the company for now.
I've never understood folks intense emotional attacks on people who say a stock is a sell. Every company is a sell at some price. Sometimes everyone needs to step back, lose the emotion, and be a little rational...
The new CEO wasn't granted 1,000,000 shares of stock. She was granted restricted stock that vest over the next 5 years based on stock price and company performance. She gets 200k shares after 1 year of employment and a stock price over $1.25 per share, 200k after 2 years of employment and a stock price of $2.00, and so on. It is a long term stock based comp incentive plan.
It looks like the insider selling was all options related. I don't read much into that.
In my opinion the stock hasn't gone up because investors are unaware of the value of the left over businesses (not doing the simple work on it).
Management could answer the other questions better.
The risk would be that they cannot achieve 5% operating margins next year. They divested a large chunk of fairly tightly integrated revenue. They seemed confident that the plan they had would allow them to get to 5% in FY2012.
They are growing 10%-15% YOY not sequentially QOQ. You have to break out last years results for Canvys and EDG then add the growth because obviously a big piece has been divested.