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Steve Birenberg, CFA

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  • Remaining A Little Nervously Long Qualcomm [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments, pro and con. I have owned QCOM for years myself and would see a move sharply lower as a buying opportunity. Keep in mind as a professional money managed with both long only, long-term investors and a hedge fund I face some performance pressures that may or not matter to any individual pressures. In addition, how my strategy for managing overall portfolio's may be different from your strategy. Remember I am writing for my clients, specific to the strategy I have used for them for ten years in some cases. Sometimes that may not translate well to a forum like SA. I mention this only to add perspective to my comments.

    I don't know any more than anyone else about the Wells notice. Worst case is probably a modest fine that will be immaterial to QCOM but it creates some bad headlines. These sort of things tend to be a slap on the wrist for mega cap companies that can afford multi million or even tens of millions in fines.
    Apr 25 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty In Limbo [View article]
    Hey All,

    I maintain a blog for my clients and update it periodically so my clients have a sense of what is going on with the stocks they hold even if nothing much is going on. Seeking Alpha automatically picks up everything I post so not totally my fault if you find this particular post light on usable content. Honestly, it wasn't meant for the SA audience. My clients, however, like this sort of thing so they can generally keep up with their portfolios which I manage on a discretionary basis. So sorry, I didn't prove helpful but I think this may be a shortfall of SA's approach to just grabbing all content that advisors' post to their site.

    I think the disclosure is pretty clear that I am long LMCA for both my long only clients (Northlake) and my hedge fund (Entermedia). I have done nothing in LMCA for Northlake in the past 6 months. I view it as a long-term hold. My hedge fund sometimes trades around the core long position (one of my top 5 long holdings) but nothing meaningful this year.

    Hope this helps.
    Mar 5 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney All Good With More To Come [View article]
    Good clarification. I was thinking of $1B plus global movies when I made that comment. Those two films will do well but with no Pixar film and the tough comp on Frozen (heading to $1B global) and Iron Man 3 ($1.2B global) the film studio is likely down this fiscal year. Frozen will have long legs as far as profits are concerned however. Anyhow, Street seems likely to look right past any issue here if it occurs given setup for 2015/16.
    Feb 11 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On M&A At Liberty Media And Liberty Global [View article]
    I think that LBTYA or LBTYK would be excellent to cover cable and satellie exposure. But I would add a stock like DIS, DISCA, TWX, NWSA to round out media. LMCA is a special situation and stands on its own due to Malone's deal-making capabilities and creative ways that he monetizes value.
    May 17 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Complete Reset Of Expectations Could Mark The Bottom [View article]
    Thanks for the comments folks! Appreciated including the good and the bad.
    Apr 25 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Midcap And Growth Now In Favor [View article]
    My model has mostly been in MDY since the bottom in March 2009. Just recently it has been fluctuating between SPY and MDY. I think the small/mid cap period of outperformance may be coming to an end.

    Keep in mind this is a monthly model that generally holds its signal for four to six months. It is a thematic rotation strategy that has worked quite well since I started using it in 1999.
    Feb 4 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Looks Good As EMC Continues To Struggle [View article]
    Back out VMW and you get a 10-12 P-E on EMC. Not super cheap given multiple son other leading old school tech stocks but with the prospect for better earnings growth due to their exposure to major trends I think the multiple could expand....if, and it;s a big if, the earnings growth accelerates later this year.
    Feb 4 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northlake: Back To Mid Cap For April [View article]
    If you read old posts you will see that the models target major trends and typical holding periods are about six months. I've been using them successfully since 2000. Trading costs are low but as noted limited changes keep them lower. Taxes go both ways as this is a fully invested strategy. I also harvest losses in other parts of my portfolio management.
    Apr 5 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EMC's Strong Quarter Justifies Its Growth Story [View article]
    80%.

    Good analysis on value, Feckless. There is also about $5 in cash on the balance sheet earning virtually nothing.
    Jan 25 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google In The Penalty Box... For Now [View article]
    Hi Rob,

    I think you more or less have the ad pricing dynamics correct. I don't think you can say mobile has limited supply but I do think the pricing goes up as it (1) becomes ever more popular, and (2) it benefits fro proximity to need (e.g. find a restaurant, compare a price).
    Jan 25 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google In The Penalty Box... For Now [View article]
    I think selling $550 puts is a good play. Just be sure you can afford to buy them back or buy the stock if the shares crash. I don;t think that will happen but this remains a dangerous market.
    Jan 24 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is a Growth Stock Again [View article]
    I'd generally agree, Tom. One thing to watch is the Razor/Razor blade issue. Google will never have anything better than search, just like Gillette can;t do anything better than razor blades. Or for that matter, MSFT can;t do anything better than Windows/Office. I'm a Google bull but I am also aware that even success in new businesses will pale next to search.
    Jul 21 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shifting to Mid Cap and Sticking With Value to Start the New Year [View article]
    Thanks for the kind comments. Please note I said in the original comment I suggest that the shift form small to mid is not as a big idea as a shift from small or mid to large. This is a minor correction.

    The models measure a series of interest rate, economic, and stock market technical indicators. Each indicator on its own has historical accuracy calling small vs. mid vs. large and growth vs. value. When the indicators as a group line up consistent with past periods when small or mid or large or growth or value performed well, the signal switches. The recent uptick in rates does hurt the case for small cap relative to large cap. It is a fact that rising rates in the past have been consistent with large cap outperformance. But in the context of this month's models, the uptick in rates is just one of then factors and it helps to line up the overall model closer to large, further from small, and it now rests at mid.

    I hope that all helps.
    Jan 7 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Capital: New Buy Based on Asset Value and Narrowing Discount [View article]
    Roxieanne,

    I prefer the more diversified investment in LCAPA. If SIRI does not live up to expectations, I stil have others ways to make money in LCAPA. If SIRI does live up to expectations, admittedly I leave money on the table. Each investor must analyze their own risk-reward trade-off. I prefer a more balanced risk-reward situation. Once again, this does not mean there is anything wrong with SIRI. I like SIRI. LCAPA just fits my investment style better.
    Dec 29 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberty Capital: New Buy Based on Asset Value and Narrowing Discount [View article]
    Not necessarily, HBG. Think of it like Apple. IPhones are more important than Macs but both contribute to growth and value.
    Dec 27 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
85 Comments
24 Likes