Seeking Alpha

Steve Birenberg...'s  Instablog

Steve Birenberg, CFA
Send Message
Steve Birenberg is founder and President of Northlake Capital Management, LLC. Northlake specializes in managing portfolios for high net worth individuals using a unique strategy combining monthly ETF rotation based on major market themes supplemented by carefully selected media and telecom... More
My company:
Northlake Capital Management, LLC
My blog:
Media Talk
View Steve Birenberg, CFA's Instablogs on:
  • TWX Takes Another Step Toward AOL Spin-off

    The WSJ is <a href="">reporting</a> that TWX has asked bondholders for consent to amend covenants.  The amendments essentially switch collateral on the bonds from AOL to HBO.  The idea is to set up AOL for a spin-off as a debt-free company.  I've written often on TWX noting that any divestiture of AOL will be positive for TWX shares as it will remove a no growth asset, free up management time, and increase the importance of well positioned cable networks and film and TV studio.  TWX popped nicely last week post the spin of TWC.  I think more upside lies ahead as long as cable networks ad growth gets no worse than flat to down low single digits.  Here is everything I have written on TWX over the years:

    Apr 06 7:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Impressive Close

    Breath Breadth stunk but I am impressed by the close.  The market seems to have a persistent bid on weakness.  Much better than prior rallies indicating the character of this rally has changed for the better. 

    Good to see APPL rise in sympathy with RIMM.  My thesis on smartphones has been that a risisng tide lifts both these boats.  The numbers on smartphone adoption are phenomenal.  I published the following on back in February:

    SNL Kagan recently published a long-term forecast for Smartphones in the U.S. At the end of 2008, smartphone subs were 52.6 million of 255.4 million total wireless subs. Kagan projects that in 2018 smartphone subs will represent 241.8 million of 316.3 million total wireless subs. Stated simply, smartphone penetration is going to rise from 33.7% to 74.4% over the next ten years.

    Tags: AAPL, BBRY, Market
    Apr 06 4:01 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • NII Holdings Lowers Subscriber Guidance

    NIHD is down 19% after announcing its 1Q subscriber figures.  The numbers were below expectations and the company lowered its full year subscriber forecasts.  Especially troubling was weakness in Mexico, the company's largest and most challenging market.  No change was made to full year financial guidance but an update was promised on the 4/23 1Q earnings call.  The news on financial figures amy not be so bad as subscriber growth brings acqusition expenses and handset subsidies.  Also, Peso and Brazilian Real have strengthened since 2009 guidance was given.

    This is a tough blow in the near-term for NIHD bulls, including myself.  I am inclined to sell if the stock lifts as analysts defend it.  Waiting to hear from Goldman which recently upgraded when the stock was near $11.  I am torn because even if growth slows, NIHD remains a double digit growth stock at the operating and subscriber level.  Not many of those in the world.  Management is top notch and EBITDA multiple is really low.

    Tags: NIHD
    Apr 06 12:18 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
  1. Box Office Boom Continues ( Comments)
  2. Impressive Close ( Comments)
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.