Steve Christ's  Instablog

After spending some serious time on the mat this summer, natural gas prices are showing some signs of life these days. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, prices for the fuel have turned markedly higher.

And with some forecasters predicting the "coldest winter in a decade," traders are now beginning to make big bets that wintry weather could send the down-beaten commodity even higher still.

One them is our own energy expert, Chris Nelder, whose mid-simmer natural gas forecast is looking to be spot-on of late.

On July 24, Chris told his readers:

"Natural gas under $4 was a steal in April, and it's even more of a steal now. Ignore the nattering nabobs of natty who worry on about inventory numbers; that's all noise. Lift your eyes from your shoes to the horizon, and you'll see that there's only one direction that gas prices can go over the coming year, and that's up."

A few weeks later, someone else who knows a thing or two about natural gas agreed. . .

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) CEO Sees More Upside

During conference call in August, CEO of Chesapeake Energy Aubrey McClendon told analysts that he expected natural gas prices to jump to between $6 and $8 per MMBtu by next summer.

That's 57% higher from here on the low end. . . and a catalyst for pushing shares of Chesapeake Energy stock (NYSE:CHK) higher.

As you can see, shares of the company have been on a tear lately, right alongside natural gas:

Yet despite this resurgence in natural gas prices, swelling storage levels, and lackluster demand have many investors wondering whether or not to chase Chesapeake Energy's share price higher.

And in this free six-page report, The Wealth Advisory research team has broken down the popular natural gas stock, answering the question on every investor's mind these days. . .

Is Chesapeake Energy Stock a Buy, Sell or Hold?

In this free report, Wealth Daily subscribers will receive:

• The results from The Wealth Advisory's proprietary scoring model
• A buy, sell, or hold recommendation
• A 12-month Price Target along with a current Stop/Loss
• A technical and fundamental analysis of the company's share price
• And much more. . .

To receive a free download of this report and our Buy, Sell or Hold recommendation for Chesapeake Energy Stock (NYSE:CHK), click here.

I hope you enjoy your free Chesapeake Energy report. . . I'll be publishing more of these in the weeks to come.

Your bargain-hunting analyst,

Steve Christ, Investment Director

The Wealth Advisory

Given the recent decline in shares of solar power stocks, the solar doom and gloomers just can't help themselves these days.  

They've come out of the woodwork with their scary tales of impending woe.

In fact, the chorus from these folks turned downright cloudy in August after analysts from Jeffries & Co. downgraded the entire solar sector amid new pricing fears.

"We expect rapid growth in solar volumes," Jeffries said in a note on August 21, "but a downward pricing spiral and lack of discipline around capital deployment leave us cautious on cell and module manufacturers."

Those dark warnings sent shares of nearly every company in the sector into an immediate tailspin, including shares of First Solar stock, which Jefferies cut to from a hold from a buy.

However, as my old pal Nick Hodge said to me on the morning of the news, the Jefferies call was a bit over the top. "It was," the green guru said, "completely unwarranted."

That has given investors with a time frame longer than it takes to eat a sandwich yet another opportunity to invest in one of the few true growth sectors, including in well-run U.S. companies like First Solar Inc.

As for the industry itself, it appears the anti-solar crowd's fears aren't warranted either.

In that regard, consider the following recent developments within the industry that will undoubtedly help to boost future sales:

•   On August 13, the U.S. government announced a program to award $2.3 billion in tax credits to manufacturers of advanced energy equipment. Authorized by the February stimulus bill, this new provides tax credits to manufacturers who produce clean energy equipment.

• On July 30, the Energy Department announced it is making up to $30 billion in loan guarantees available for renewable energy and electric grid modernization projects. The government-backed authority should help boost lending capital for renewable and other clean-energy technology projects, which has dried up with the financial recession.

On top of that, when it comes to renewable energy, let's just say the industry also has more than a few friends in high places, including Energy Secretary Steven Chu. An actual Nobel Prize-winning scientist, Chu is one of solar power's biggest supporters.

In fact, according to Chu, the administration's new goal is to double renewable electricity generation over the next three years. "To achieve that goal," Chu said, "we need to accelerate renewable project development by ensuring access to capital for advanced technology projects."

That means the government will be there to help push these new technologies forward — now and in the future — by whatever means necessary.

Of course, that's not to say that the solar power industry hasn't had its share of problems lately.  It has. The industry has definitely been hurt by excess capacity, tight credit, and a bloated inventory of panels that iSuppli predicts will not end until 2012.

On top of that, there is a supply glut of polysilicon that has hurt the industry's earnings and margins this year.

Even still, given the combination of eventual improvements in the technology and favorable government policies both here and abroad, solar power as a long-term investment is one whose time has definitely arrived. . . all doom and gloom aside.

And in this free six-page report, The Wealth Advisory Research Team has broken down the one of the most promising solar power giants, answering the question on every investor's mind these days. . .

Is First Solar Stock (NASDAQ: FSLR) a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

In this free report, Wealth Daily subscribers will receive:

• The results from The Wealth Advisory's proprietary scoring model
• A buy, sell, or hold recommendation
• A 12-month Price Target, along with a current Stop/Loss
• A technical and fundamental analysis of the company's share price
• And much more. . .

To receive a free download of this report and our Buy, Sell or Hold recommendation for First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), click here.

I hope you enjoy your free First Solar report.  We will be publishing many more of these in the weeks to come. . .

Just in time for back to school, new swine flu fears have suddenly returned. And like the lingering infection itself, the H1N1 virus is one that just won't seem to go away.

In fact, according to a 68-page report released last week, about half of all Americans can look forward to a brush with the swine flu this winter, while 1.8 million will likely end up with a trip to the hospital from exposure.

That's the good news.

The bad news is that the new strain is so virulent that the author of the report, Dr. Harold Varmus, believes 90,000 Americans may eventually die from it.  That's three times the average number of flu deaths experienced each year.

"This flu could be extremely dangerous," Dr. Varmus said ominously. "It needs to be taken seriously."

Swine Flu Investments

As a result, swine flu fears are now running at a fever pitch of their own, with U.S. health officials planning to spend up to $2 billion on flu vaccines this year, purchasing nearly 160 million doses.

But while the fear engendered by the virus has been a big bonus for swine flu investments in pharmaceutical companies like Glaxo-Smith-Kline and Roche, the return of the flu promises to be nothing but a headache for the travel industry — especially hotel REITS.

Because let's face it; even if the swine flu projections fall short of Dr. Varmus's "plausible scenario," consumers aren't exactly going to be eager to jump on a plane full of sniffling strangers or check into a room full of germs from who knows where.

For most would-be travelers, it just won't be worth the risk.

That has the potential to disrupt the entire $770-billion-dollar U.S. travel industry at a time when it can least afford it. And if the SARS outbreak of 2003 is any guide, a swine flu scare may be enough to send parts of this industry into the abyss.

Because by comparison, SARS caused only $18 billion in losses to the industry, as travel to Southeast Asia fell by almost 70%.  Moreover, SARS caused "only" 774 deaths worldwide before rapidly coming to an end just four months later.

Meanwhile, with over 1,000 swine flu deaths already so far, we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg. . . The worst is yet to come, along with the requisite hysteria. 

Swine Flu Means Big Headaches for Hotel Stocks

That puts hotel REITS, like Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT) and Marriot International Inc. (NYSE:MAR) on increasingly shaky ground these days, since vacancies are already running well above average.  

In fact, according to Smith Travel Research (STR), occupancy rates for luxury hotels worldwide have dropped to 57 percent this year through July. That's down from 71 percent occupancy just one year earlier. 

Additionally, according to the group, the average daily room rate will drop by 9.7 percent, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) will be down 17.1 percent this year. As for 2010, STR projects further occupancy declines of 0.6 percent, and additional RevPAR declines of 4.0 percent.  Neither metric is exactly encouraging.

In the meantime, things have already gotten so bad in the industry that some hotel owners are walking away from their business entirely, handing the keys back to lender as they default.

In fact, Real Capital Analytics now classifies $18 billion in hotel loans as distressed, meaning they are either delinquent, in foreclosure, in bankruptcy, or have already been restructured. That compares with just $1.3 billion in distressed hotel loans a year ago.

And when you add in the prospect of a swine flu scare into this already toxic mix, it's easy to see why hotel REITs make good short sale candidates these days. 

As for Starwood Hotels and Marriott International, they already have the symptoms that could easily turn into something much more dire.

Swine flu or no swine flu, these stocks are headed for the teens.

Disclosure: No positions