Seeking Alpha

Steve Funk

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Steve Funk's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    Zelaza,
    Fact: Elon Musk is not trained as an engineer.
    Fact: Elon Musk has never worked as an engineer.
    Fact: Elon Musk does not hold utility patents on cars or rockets.

    The good news is I would not invest in a company with a "real" engineer type at the helm. Like all really successful businessmen Elon is a financier and salesman extraordinaire. The engineering is comparatively easy to hire but seems to make better folklore.
    Jul 13 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla May Have A Huge Unfunded Warranty Problem Due To Defective Drivetrains [View article]
    Value Horizon,
    Conjecture; an opinion or conclusion based on incomplete information.

    Seems that any stock I have ever bought was based on conjecture.

    It is pretty easy to verify the Edmunds problems with their long term tester. The probability that three drive units would go bad on one vehicle are pretty remote if there are very few bad drives. That lead me to suppose that there is a rather large population of "bad" drives. The primary alternative thesis would be that the Edmunds folks have a lead foot and are hard on cars. Only Tesla will know the real failure rate as LT points out. No manufacturer routinely gives information on component failure rates so we will be left to guess for the next few quarters.
    Jul 13 09:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    Neil,
    "ought to translate to 6% greater range, or 6% less weight in batteries"

    If only the real engineering calculations were that easy.... With your assumptions and linearization of non-linear effects the probability you are in the ball park is very small.
    Jul 9 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Stock Forecast Based On Predictive Analytics [View article]
    Gordonr,
    "no, the patents are not worthless"

    Yes, they are. Just saying patents are worth money does not make it so. I have read many of the patents and I can't find one that could be licensed in the industry, at least not for significant cash. If you really believe Tesla patents are valuable just name one patent and a potential buyer for it. You can't or you would have mentioned it.
    Jul 8 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Stock Forecast Based On Predictive Analytics [View article]
    Interesting speculation on open sourcing the patents. Did you investigate the fact that most of Tesla's patents are encumbered by liens? Basically they were taken as collateral by Tesla's creditors.

    What makes you think the creditors would sign off on giving away valuable patents? Then again, maybe the patents are not so valuable as everyone thinks. There are very few seminal patents in the auto industry and Tesla has none. Maybe this is a last ditch effort to generate some publicity with worthless patents? While Mr. Musk is not an engineer he most definitely is a world class promoter and would not let an opportunity like this pass.
    Jun 11 10:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: An Amazing Company, But Shares Are Still Too Expensive [View article]
    David,
    "Nummi is a great place for Tesla's first factory and they should be able to reach 500K production there."

    How do you figure this? Toyota never produced 500k/ year at NUMMI. How is Tesla going to produce 500k when they are putting two models through one paint shop (maybe 50k units in 2015) and the other idle paint shop only has a 250k rating? The other problem is that Tesla is using Fremont for battery pack assembly, motor manufacture, and apparently some plastics work. There will not be enough room for the required assembly lines to make 500k. That is assuming Tesla can get the necessary California permission to fire up the second (and probably third) paint shop. Like Ken says in the article, there is not going to be more Tesla manufacturing in California after Models S and X.
    May 22 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Will Slowly Lose Credibility With The Market [View article]
    Ford,
    "Then respectfully you do not understand disruption. "

    You are rarely respectful in your rebuttals. I would suggest that the inevitable future that you foresee in transportation and the inevitable domination of Tesla in that future may not be all that inevitable.

    To achieve Tesla's domination, and hence warrant it's valuation, one of the major car companies will have to go under. Which will it be? Will Germany sit by while Volkswagen folds? Will Japan's METI stand by while Mazda hands over it's factories? Or will the US government give up on GM and the UAW in order to throw all it's weight behind Tesla? In a perfect world they would all divide up the pie equally and be happy, but that is not how it will end. The realities of huge capital investments and break-even production volumes will see to that.
    Apr 23 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Will Slowly Lose Credibility With The Market [View article]
    winfield100,
    Perhaps you mean this rebuttal;
    http://nyti.ms/QFtnqJ

    The editorial hardly calls Broder to be completely at fault in the article. My read is that the editor feels there were wrongs on both sides. Sort of, let's move on from this silly argument.

    Fact is, Tesla refuses to acknowledge that driving with batteries in the northern winter is a problem. Why did the recent Tesla cross country trip take a 150 mile detour to Wyoming when any normal person would have taken I-76 out of Denver? Perhaps it is not possible to make the 200 mile I-76 stretch where there is no charger?
    Apr 23 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Will Slowly Lose Credibility With The Market [View article]
    David,
    "when the Gen III is introduced the company will be in a much better position to sell 500K units per year."

    Several times in this thread there have been assertions that Tesla will produce 500k/year Gen III. That is a distortion of facts. Tesla has announced a "nameplate" maximum capacity of the Gigafactory at 500k car equivalents/ year. Since the Gigafactory is still a dream it is highly doubtful maximum capacity will be reached in three years.

    There is no auto assembly line in the world that has a 500k capacity that I am aware of. A more reasonable assembly line capacity would be 200k/ year and there is little chance Tesla would reach that number in 2015.
    Apr 23 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    teddyg,
    "previous capacity of the Nummi plant in Fremont of 500,000 units/year "
    "average big auto plant produces around 350,000 vehicles/year."

    You are very misinformed on your numbers....
    Feb 24 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Elon Musk: If It Flies, Drives, Or Electrifies, Lease It [View article]
    Ford,
    Quite the personal attack. You are quite anonymous here. Can you share what automotive knowledge you have that makes you so confident you understand what you are talking about.

    Here is some homework on On-Star, established in 1996 (and, yes, it is wireless). http://bit.ly/1pfofqu

    Seems someone did tell.
    Feb 23 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Ambitious SuperCharger Infrastructure Build Is SuperExpensive [View article]
    Jonas,
    "Is it really
    "grid connected"? Is it really "net metered" (sends clean power to grid at peak demand hours of the day--for peak income to Tesla?)."

    It depends. Every public service commission sets their own rules. In much of Colorado you have to sell ALL your power to the utility at wholesale and buy it back retail. This helps pay for the infrastructure and eventually all localities will need some form of charging solar producers for the infrastructure. Superchargers will be a cost center for Tesla, not a revenue generator.
    Feb 23 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An opinion piece titled "The Other Government Motors" from the WSJ isn't too subtle about taking apart the Q1 profit Tesla Motors (TSLA +1.4%) reported as it hitched a free ride with U.S. taxpayers. The zero-emission tax credits Tesla can sell to other automakers and the generous $7.5K federal tax credits to motivate buyers are the big two complaints. But what isn't entirely clear is why other car companies selling EVs aren't lumped into the same discourse? [View news story]
    Dan,
    "Patents are essentially a clerical function. "

    This is not really true either. Getting a patent might be a clerical function but in order to prosecute a patent it needs to be "useful". In order for it to be useful it needs to be operative. Check out the legal requirements: http://bit.ly/1cFkup4

    I just glanced at several Stanley Meyers patents. You are going to have to explain how these several patents prove anything. Just because someone is issued a patent does not mean it is legally binding if they did not adhere to all the legal requirements above.
    Feb 23 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Elon Musk: If It Flies, Drives, Or Electrifies, Lease It [View article]
    John,
    Check out GM's On-Star. Generally acknowledged as the first to do this somewhere around 15-20 years ago. How is this amazing to you? I do not know the details on all systems, but most luxury cars offer this type of crash alerting and system diagnostics.
    Jan 28 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Elon Musk: If It Flies, Drives, Or Electrifies, Lease It [View article]
    Ford Perfect,
    You do not seem to know about cars, testing, or the data that Ford and GM have about your vehicles. If you did you would not claim that Tesla has more data. Of course you are aware that for ten or fifteen years GM's Onstar system provides the same information to GM in real time as well? Ever call Mercedes with a dead battery and they diagnose the car and get the part number from your car while on the phone? Then the Mercedes tech arrives to install the battery in less time than you can have a sandwich? You could easily be 200 miles from a Tesla repair facility that has few parts. What good is data if you can't help your customer?

    "Moreover it has machine-searchable real world data in actionable engineering detail. " Do you think all other car companies are using file cabinets for the data? How do you think air bags go off? Because all cars are constantly monitoring g-forces. This is just more rhetoric that Tesla fans throw out with absolutely no factual basis. Seems to be a good pump and dump tactic.
    Jan 28 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
574 Comments
687 Likes