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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • Apple Posts Most Profitable Quarter In History

    VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 53.66% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 14.73% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Eight sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with three at or near double digits.

    Kiss the Cook
    --Apple Posts Most Profitable Quarter in History

    Apple Inc. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company's products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

    There were a lot of questions about Apple's future following the death of founder and CEO Steve Jobs, but replacement Tim Cook did a lot to bury doubts once and for all with the most recent earnings report. Apple posted the greatest profit of any company in history yesterday. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $74.6 billion and record quarterly net profit of $18 billion, or $3.06 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $57.6 billion and net profit of $13.1 billion, or $2.07 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.9 percent compared to 37.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 65 percent of the quarter's revenue.

    The tech juggernaut's profit of $18 billion dollars handily beat the @ $16 billion prior record posted by Exxon/Mobil back in 2012. The latest iPhones led to the staggering number, with 74.5 MILLION of the devices sold for the quarter. The company's cash reserves now approach $180 BILLION. That's enough cash to buy major competitors outright--if they wanted.

    Buyers purchased large quantities of the bigger, more expensive, and more profitable iPhone 6 Plus, and that really boosted the company's bottom line. Sales of iPads were less impressive, but that didn't matter due to the huge demand for the latest iPhone models during the Christmas season. Analysts note that the phones were also wildly popular in China, a fact which bodes well for the future. Since the death of Steve Jobs, Cook has essentially increased quarterly profits 300%. He has also helped the company by getting rid of management figures who were apostles of Jobs, but perhaps not as effective as they should have been.

    ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on APPLE INC for 2015-01-27. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that APPLE INC has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

    As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Apple HERE.

    Below is today's data on AAPL:


     






    ValuEngine Forecast
     Target
    Price*
    Expected
    Return
    1-Month109.720.53%
    3-Month110.671.40%
    6-Month111.862.49%
    1-Year116.146.42%
    2-Year132.1821.11%
    3-Year69.42-36.39%

     















    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation8.21% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 32
    1-M Forecast Return0.53%1-M Forecast Return Rank 86
    12-M Return38.78%Momentum Rank(?) 89
    Sharpe Ratio1.04Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 96
    5-Y Avg Annual Return25.98%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 93
    Volatility25.02%Volatility Rank(?) 72
    Expected EPS Growth17.53%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 52
    Market Cap (billions)640.09Size Rank 100
    Trailing P/E Ratio15.68Trailing P/E Rank(?) 73
    Forward P/E Ratio13.34Forward P/E Ratio Rank 67
    PEG Ratio0.89PEG Ratio Rank 47
    Price/Sales3.50Price/Sales Rank(?) 27
    Market/Book6.23Market/Book Rank(?) 20
    Beta0.89Beta Rank 58
    Alpha0.22Alpha Rank 88

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jan 28 3:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Latest On APPLE And A Look At Top-5 Rated Energy Stocks

    Valuation Watch: Overvalued stocks now make up 50.04% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 15.32% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Eleven sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with one sector at double digits.

    ValuEngine Index Overview

     

     

     

     

     

    IndexWeek OpenFriday PMChange% ChangeYTD
    DJIA17821.317728.8-92.5-0.52%6.95%
    NASDAQ4700.344695.54-4.8-0.10%12.43%
    RUSSELL 20001192.361183.71-8.65-0.73%1.73%
    S&P 5002054.442043.19-11.25-0.55%10.54%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued49.96%
    Stocks Overvalued50.04%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%20.7%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%15.32%

     

    ValuEngine Sector Overview

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    SectorChangeMTDYTDValuationLast 12-MReturnP/E Ratio
    Aerospace0.94%-1.25%-1.25%11.13% overvalued-1.54%20.45
    Retail-Wholesale1.31%0.30%0.30%7.86% overvalued0.73%26.82
    Medical1.52%1.93%1.93%7.32% overvalued7.98%29.95
    Consumer Staples1.27%-0.30%-0.30%5.30% overvalued2.81%24.84
    Utilities1.11%-1.66%-1.66%2.70% overvalued7.18%20.98
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates1.06%-1.05%-1.05%2.35% overvalued1.10%20.46
    Computer and Technology1.48%-0.40%0.89%2.00% overvalued-2.62%30.65
    Consumer Discretionary1.02%-1.08%-1.08%1.48% overvalued-3.88%27.07
    Finance0.65%-0.42%-0.42%0.10% overvalued2.28%17.69
    Business Services1.23%-1.05%-1.05%0.96% undervalued0.83%24.74
    Transportation1.58%-1.16%-1.16%5.21% undervalued2.65%19.46
    Auto-Tires-Trucks1.27%-0.89%-0.89%7.35% undervalued-4.90%15.40
    Industrial Products1.17%-1.64%-1.64%7.76% undervalued-8.86%19.63
    Construction1.26%-1.01%-1.01%8.33% undervalued-2.33%25.94
    Basic Materials0.78%0.30%0.28%12.13% undervalued-12.60%22.94
    Oils-Energy1.54%-3.75%-3.75%26.44% undervalued-29.76%19.03

    Free Download for Readers

    As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Apple Inc. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company's products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

    ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on APPLE INC for 2015-01-08. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that APPLE INC has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

    Below is today's data on Apple:


     






    ValuEngine Forecast
     Target
    Price*
    Expected
    Return
    1-Month112.340.40%
    3-Month113.000.99%
    6-Month113.941.83%
    1-Year117.304.83%
    2-Year139.2224.43%
    3-Year67.20-39.94%

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation13.15% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 25
    1-M Forecast Return0.40%1-M Forecast Return Rank 80
    12-M Return44.12%Momentum Rank(?) 92
    Sharpe Ratio1.04Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 96
    5-Y Avg Annual Return25.98%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 93
    Volatility25.02%Volatility Rank(?) 72
    Expected EPS Growth17.92%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 51
    Market Cap (billions)656.22Size Rank 100
    Trailing P/E Ratio16.17Trailing P/E Rank(?) 72
    Forward P/E Ratio13.71Forward P/E Ratio Rank 63
    PEG Ratio0.90PEG Ratio Rank 46
    Price/Sales3.59Price/Sales Rank(?) 27
    Market/Book6.38Market/Book Rank(?) 20
    Beta0.89Beta Rank 58
    Alpha0.22Alpha Rank 88

    As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Apple HERE.

    Sector Talk--Oils/Energy

    Below, we present the latest data on Oils/Energy stocks from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI). Top five lists are provided for each category. We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Top-Five Oils/Energy Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    PEIXPAC ETHANOL INC9N/A63.64
    PTRPETROCHINA ADR114.23-20.349.85
    ARLPALLIANCE RES41.75-12.418.99
    EMESEMERGE ENRG SVC51.27N/A15.73
    SNPCHINA PETRO&CHM81.52-7.916.94

    Top-Five Oils/Energy Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    PEIXPAC ETHANOL INC9N/A63.64
    PTRPETROCHINA ADR114.23-20.349.85
    ARLPALLIANCE RES41.75-12.418.99
    EMESEMERGE ENRG SVC51.27N/A15.73
    SNPCHINA PETRO&CHM81.52-7.916.94

    Top-Five Oils/Energy Stocks--Composite Score

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    PTRPETROCHINA ADR114.23-20.349.85
    SNPCHINA PETRO&CHM81.52-7.916.94
    ARLPALLIANCE RES41.75-12.418.99
    CNQCDN NTRL RSRCS27.94-31.51-14.45
    RDS.AROYAL DTCH SH-A65.04-13.12-7.63

    Top-Five Oils/Energy Stocks--Most Overvalued

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    WLLWHITING PETROLM30.95190.61-47.62
    MURMURPHY OIL48.5761.99-22.77
    POWRPOWERSECURE INT10.9750.4-41.93
    CVICVR ENERGY INC39.5547.45-4.93
    FFFUTUREFUEL CORP12.3440.82-22.63

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jan 14 3:05 PM | Link | Comment!
  • ValuEngine.com: Oil-Driven Unrest Causes Retreat To "Normal" Valuations

    VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 50.52% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 15.04% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Nine sectors are calculated to be overvalued--one by double digits.

    With Latest Market Unrest, Valuations in "Normal" Range Again

    ValuEngine tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges as well as @1000 Canadian equities. When EPS estimates are available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation calculation to more than 2900 stocks in our US Universe.

    We combine all of the equities with a valuation calculation to track market valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of the market. Two factors can lower these figures-- a market pullback, or a significant rise in EPS estimates. Vice-versa, a significant rally or reduction in EPS can raise the figure. Whenever we see overvaluation levels in excess of @ 65% for the overall universe and/or 27% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation warning.

    We now calculate that 50.52% of stocks are overvalued and 15.04% of those stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. We saw overvaluation figures as low as 45% earlier this week. These sorts of figures are down significantly from where they were for much of 2014.

    With these sorts of numbers, we now operate well within "normal" range for valuation. We saw a brief dip into the 40s during October during the pre-election ISIS/Ebola scare, but other than that, the last time overvaluation was this low on a sustained basis was December 2012 when the S&P 500 was in the 1400s.

    The crash in oil prices has unsettled the markets, and volatility has returned at a time when money managers should be padding their results for the year with a traditional holiday uptick. We keep getting good economic news in the US, and are especially optimistic due to the--finally--improving labor picture. But the ruble crisis and the energy chaos has hurt equities, and the US may be effected by this contagion. For this reason, we cannot use the valuation figures to make a buy call just yet despite the vastly improved valuation picture.

    Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews

    The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 2014. It shows levels in excess of 40%.

    (click to enlarge)

    This chart shows overall universe over valuation in excess of 40% vs the S&P 500 from January 2013

    (click to enlarge)

    This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 40% vs the S&P 500 from March 2007*

    (click to enlarge)

    *NOTE: Time Scale Compressed Prior to 2011.

    In addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis overvaluation has greatly declined. Only nine sectors are overvalued according to our Valuation Model, and only one of them is overvalued by double digits. Oils/Energy is now calcualted to be undervalued by almost 30%.

    Tags: valuations
    Dec 18 12:23 PM | Link | Comment!
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