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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at, a Melbourne, Florida-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 8000 US, Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes ValuEngine's complex... More
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  • ValuEngine Weekly: Transport Stocks, Valuation Warning,AB-InBev, Fed Meeting, And Market Neutral Results

    VALUATION WARNING: Overvalued stocks now make up 66.43% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 28.41% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with eight at or near double digits.

    ValuEngine Index Overview






    IndexWeek OpenFriday AMChange% ChangeYTD
    RUSSELL 20001259.381285.9826.602.11%6.75%
    S&P 5002091.342118.3627.021.29%2.89%


    ValuEngine Market Overview




    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued33.57%
    Stocks Overvalued66.43%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%12.37%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%28.41%
    ValuEngine Sector Overview

















    SectorChangeMTDYTDValuationLast 12-MReturnP/E Ratio
    Medical1.04%2.77%15.88%25.03% overvalued18.60%30.67
    Aerospace0.71%0.86%5.69%20.56% overvalued-4.29%22.61
    Computer and Technology0.49%1.13%8.59%17.03% overvalued8.02%30.83
    Business Services0.78%2.02%5.98%15.49% overvalued3.32%25.44
    Consumer Discretionary0.65%1.33%10.06%14.59% overvalued2.03%28.00
    Retail-Wholesale0.48%0.70%2.24%14.20% overvalued8.15%26.20
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates0.76%-0.51%3.19%13.83% overvalued1.07%23.01
    Consumer Staples0.61%1.54%4.48%13.72% overvalued2.84%24.57
    Finance0.55%1.52%4.77%8.89% overvalued3.40%17.84
    Oils-Energy-0.23%-1.44%-0.43%8.04% overvalued-34.72%24.42
    Auto-Tires-Trucks0.75%-1.17%3.51%5.70% overvalued-5.43%16.87
    Industrial Products0.50%0.39%4.22%5.41% overvalued-4.23%20.60
    Transportation0.64%-0.56%0.65%4.37% overvalued0.72%19.45
    Utilities1.08%-1.10%1.06%4.00% overvalued-5.05%21.93
    Basic Materials0.22%-0.92%0.95%3.03% overvalued-14.40%24.14
    Construction0.62%0.75%2.98%2.80% overvalued0.70%24.66


    Sector Talk--Transportation

    Below, we present the latest data on Transportation stocks from our Professional Stock Analysis Service Top five lists are provided for each category. We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns







    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    TNKTEEKAY TANKERS7.53-35.43%108.01%
    UALUNITED CONT HLD52.01-15.67%17.22%
    AYRAIRCASTLE LTD23.131.02%37.84%
    TNPTSAKOS EGY NAVG9.9-3.52%37.88%
    CVTICOVENANT TRANS26.87-19.44%152.54%

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns







    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    TNKTEEKAY TANKERS7.53-35.43%108.01%
    UALUNITED CONT HLD52.01-15.67%17.22%
    AYRAIRCASTLE LTD23.131.02%37.84%
    TNPTSAKOS EGY NAVG9.9-3.52%37.88%
    CVTICOVENANT TRANS26.87-19.44%152.54%

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score







    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    LUVSOUTHWEST AIR33.86-28.79%28.02%
    UALUNITED CONT HLD52.01-15.67%17.22%
    TNKTEEKAY TANKERS7.53-35.43%108.01%
    ALKALASKA AIR GRP63.99-6.94%29.98%
    JBLUJETBLUE AIRWAYS19.96-4.72%106.63%

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued







    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    YRCWYRC WORLDWD INC13.8300.00%-38.37%
    GOGLGOLDEN OCEAN GP3.73149.19%-71.83%
    RLGTRADIANT LOGIST7.23112.92%133.98%
    XPOXPO LOGISTICS47.4779.93%88.90%
    ATSGAIR TRANSPT SVC10.557.69%15.64%

    Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know,
    ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and

    Free Download for Readers

    As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD) is the leading global brewer and one of the world's top five consumer products companies. Their portfolio of well over 200 beer brands continues to forge strong connections with consumers. They invest the majority of their brand-building resources on their Focus Brands - those with the greatest growth potential such as global brands Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's, alongside Leffe, Hoegaarden, Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Antarctica, Quilmes, Michelob Ultra, Harbin, Sedrin, Klinskoye, Sibirskaya Korona, Chernigivske, Hasserder and Jupiler. In addition, the company owns a 50 percent equity interest in the operating subsidiary of Grupo Modelo, Mexico's leading brewer and owner of the global Corona brand.

    VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on ANHEUSER-BU ADR for 2015-06-18. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that ANHEUSER-BU ADR has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Price Sales Ratio.

    As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on AB InBev HERE.

    (click to enlarge)







    ValuEngine Forecast
















    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation14.24% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 36
    1-M Forecast Return0.86%1-M Forecast Return Rank 95
    12-M Return42.20%Momentum Rank(?) 90
    Sharpe Ratio1.06Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 93
    5-Y Avg Annual Return25.34%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 92
    Volatility23.90%Volatility Rank(?) 71
    Expected EPS Growth9.35%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 43
    Market Cap (billions)749.01Size Rank 100
    Trailing P/E Ratio15.29Trailing P/E Rank(?) 77
    Forward P/E Ratio13.98Forward P/E Ratio Rank 68
    PEG Ratio1.63PEG Ratio Rank 31
    Price/Sales3.53Price/Sales Rank(?) 28
    Market/Book6.23Market/Book Rank(?) 22
    Beta0.83Beta Rank 58
    Alpha0.29Alpha Rank 90

    What's Hot? Good News From Fed Sparks Rally

    Markets have jumped hard this week on a variety of good news for equities. The NASDAQ has reached a level not seen since the dotcom boom of 2000 and both the S&P 500 and the Dow have also jumped up once more. The latest leg up caused yet another valuation warning because at these levels our models find that more than 65% of the stocks we can assign a valaution are calculated to be overvaued.

    Investors reacted positively to the latest news from the Fed that the economy is firming up and while it is looking like rates are going up, the central bank is not quite ready to boost them just yet and may let the economy run a bit more before easing off the throttle.

    Highlights from the Fed's latest FOMC meeting included the following:

    Economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady.

    Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.

    Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate.

    The Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation

    The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

    The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. (emphasis added)

    We thus see a Fed that is properly balancing inflation concerns with efforts to promote full employment. While it is often tough to read the tea leaves, here we have a clear restatement of the Fed's dual mandate (manage inflation and promote employment) and a clear indication that they are prepared to keep rates low until they are sure the labor market has properly recovered. Thus it appears as though equities will remain the only game in town for a while longer.

    VE Forecast Market Neutral Newsletter Posts Strong Pick Up Due to Short Positions

    May/June was another good month for our portfolio as we posted a gain of 2.53% and beat both the SP500 loss of 0.31% and the MLSAX pick up of 0.97%. The modified stop-lossed strategy with a suggested 60-40 allocation trailed the standard market neutral allocation with a gain of 2.26%. The trailing 12 month percentage return is 23.38% for the newsletter and 8.75% for the MLSAX Long-Short Fund-and 9.46% for the SP500. Since inception, our portfolio has returned 129.92% vs the MLSAX return of 33.25%.

    It was another strange month as longs were lackluster despite the hard jump for the markets in the past few days due to the recent FOMC announcements. We didn't break 50% with our hit ratio-long or short-but we managed a beat thanks to some outstanding results from individual positions. Bright spots for longs were Net1, Gilead, and the still strong TeeKay Tankers. Our shorts also featured major gains from Caesar's-again!--Peabody, and Navistar. Our three 30% gainers really helped to cover the losses from the laggards in the portfolio.

    Here are the primary long and short-side selections and their performance for the month.






































    PositionTickerCompany Name

    Entry Price 5/20/15

    Exit PriceChange%ChangeSector
    Long 1AXLAMERICAN AXLE & MFG25.0921.96-3.13-12.48AUTO TIRES TRUCKS
    Long 1WUWESTERN UNION22.2621.28-0.98-4.41BUSINESS SERVICES
    Long 1BZHBEAZER HOMES18.6618.750.090.48CONSTRUCTION
    Long 1BFRBANCO FRANC-ADR18.4315.39-3.04-16.49FINANCE
    Long 1GILDGILEAD SCIENCES110.16121.2111.0510.03MEDICAL
    Long 1FSSFED SIGNAL CP15.4215.27-0.15-0.97MULTI-SECTOR CONGLOM
    Long 1PZEPETROBRAS EGY7.276.68-0.59-8.12OILS ENERGY
    Long 1FLWS1800FLOWERS.COM9.7710.710.949.62RETAIL WHOLESALE
    Long 1TEOTELECOM ARGENTINA21.0218.08-2.94-13.99UTILITIES
    Short 1AVAVAEROVIRONMENT26.3827.05-0.67-2.54AEROSPACE
    Short 1CDECOEUR MINING5.346.33-0.99-18.54BASIC MATERIALS
    Short 1ENOCENERNOC INC9.5710.80-1.23-12.85BUSINESS SERVICES
    Short 1KBRKBR INC18.1019.77-1.67-9.24CONSTRUCTION
    Short 1GNWGENWORTH FINANCIAL7.907.93-0.03-0.38FINANCE
    Short 1BTUPEABODY ENERGY3.762.461.3034.57OILS ENERGY
    Short 1CLNECLEAN EGY FUELS7.597.66-0.07-0.92UTILITIES
    Jun 19 3:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Boeing Lands Major Deal At Paris Air Show
    --Order Up! Boeing Lands Major Deal at Paris Air Show

    The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is one of the world's major aerospace firms. The company operates in three principal segments: commercial airplanes; military aircraft and missiles; and space and communications.

    We saw last week that the airline industry is having some issues with growth this year and that while shareholders have been happy with various profit-raising measures, squeezing customers for every last dime may not be the wave of the future when it comes to earnings growth.

    Many airlines are using older aircraft which are beginning to be more trouble than they are worth do to poor fuel mileage, high maintenance costs, and outdated cabins. One possible path to greater profits is newer equipment that is more fuel efficient, carries more customers, and allows for the sale of even more profit-boosting amenities to a captive audience.

    It seems that this upgrade process is ongoing and may even be accelerating with the news today that Boeing has landed a mega deal for 100 brand new, state-of-the-art 737 Max aircraft at the Paris Air Show. The Wall Street Journal reports that Boeing, working with Aercap Holdings NV (NYSE:AER), has signed a $10.7 billion dollar deal for the new planes. Aercap is the world's largest independent lessor of aircraft.

    Aercap Holdings is an integrated global aviation company with a leading market position in aircraft and engine leasing, trading and parts sales.They also provides aircraft management services and performs aircraft and engine maintenance, repair and overhaul services and aircraft disassemblies through its certified repair stations.

    Aercap is rated more highly by our models than BA, we continue our STRONG BUY recommendation on AERCAP HLDGS NV for 2015-06-15. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that AERCAP HLDGS NV has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Company Size.

    The newly announced Aercap deal is in addition to 737 orders already announced for SMBC Aviation, Indonesia's Sriwijaya Air, and China's Rulli Airlines and Minshing Financial. The only bad news for Boeing seems to be word that Russian Carrier Aeroflot canceled an order for Boeing's 787.

    (click to enlarge)
    Boeing 737 Max in Southwest Livery

    So far, the Paris Air Show has thus resulted in more than 400 planes being sold from Boeing and European rival Airbus. The WSJ notes that " the new business Boeing and rival Airbus Group SE have racked up underscores the undiminished appetite for new aircraft from airlines and lessors, driven in part by robust world-wide growth in demand for air travel and low interest rates."

    Boeing also issued a forecast for more than 38,000 new jets over the next 20 years and expects that many of those will be for single-aisle jets like the 737. That's a lot of business for Boeing and Aerbus to fight over in the not-so-distant future.

    It appears that while airlines may have hit a temporary rough patch, increased competition means a move to new equipment and this will be good news for Boeing moving forward. Of course, it will take a while for analysts to adjust earnings estimates and to run the numbers on these latest sales announcements. We currently have a HOLD on Boeing, but that may change as we have seen some fluctuation in Boeing's rating, with the latest change in status coming on May 18th--downgrade to HOLD.

    Below is today's more extensive data on BA:

    VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on BOEING CO for 2015-06-15. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that BOEING CO has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Book Market Ratio.


    ValuEngine Forecast


    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation0.59% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 62
    1-M Forecast Return0.37%1-M Forecast Return Rank 78
    12-M Return5.21%Momentum Rank(?) 61
    Sharpe Ratio0.79Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 87
    5-Y Avg Annual Return15.67%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 80
    Volatility19.77%Volatility Rank(?) 79
    Expected EPS Growth4.81%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 34
    Market Cap (billions)101.44Size Rank 100
    Trailing P/E Ratio16.55Trailing P/E Rank(?) 72
    Forward P/E Ratio15.79Forward P/E Ratio Rank 56
    PEG Ratio3.44PEG Ratio Rank 12
    Price/Sales1.10Price/Sales Rank(?) 66
    Market/Book874.51Market/Book Rank(?) 1
    Beta0.98Beta Rank 50
    Alpha-0.05Alpha Rank 54

    Jun 16 11:52 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Wal-Mart Pay Raises Help Workers And Business?

    VALUATION WARNING: Overvalued stocks now make up 66.07% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 28.18% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with nine at or near double digits.

    --Lesson (Re)Learned : Honey is Better then Vinegar Wal-Mart Pay Raises Help Workers and Business?

    Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is the world's largest retailer. They are engaged in the operation of mass merchandising stores, which serve their customers primarily through the operation of three segments, which are the Wal-Mart Stores segment, the SAM'S Club segment and the International segment.

    For a very long time now, much of the information about retail giant Wal-Mart was decidedly negative. Crowded stores, substandard goods, closed-down main streets across the USA, poorly-paid workers, etc. For many shoppers, the lure of low prices was easily overcome by a reticence to subject one's self to the Wal-Mart "experience."

    It didn't help that a variety of viral stories on the internet discussed employees on government assistance, food drives for full-time workers, "random" scheduling that took no account of employee needs or family life, wealthy family heirs and heiresses on the Forbes list of the wealthiest prone to making gaffes, employees locked inside for night shifts, and other topics more reminiscent of the Gilded Age than one of the largest employers in the 21st Century United States.

    Faced with increasing labor issues like high turnover, union agitation, and various protests, the company responded in April with the news that they would immediately take steps to raise the wages of employees to a level that exceeded the US Federal minimum.

    Of course, as we noted at the time of that increase, one wonders whether this was a benevolent move on the part of workers, or more of a PR effort designed to undercut unions and perhaps stave off additional governmental regulation. it may have also had more to do with an improving economy and tightening labor market than good will as well. Shortly after Wal-Mart made its announcement, competitors like Target, TJ Maxx, and Marshalls announced similar pay increases for their workers.

    However, while it may have served a variety of purposes at the time, we are beginning to see signs that it may also have some beneficial effects for the firm itself beyond good PR. Company CEO Doug McMillon told shareholders at a briefing last Friday that managers have begun to report measurable decreases in turnover and a concurrent increase in job applications.

    At the same briefing, McMillan announced additional increases to the minimum wage for @100,000 US employees working in store delis and those that manage departments. He also went on to say that the company is considering further increases in minimum pay beyond the already promised increase to $10/hour. "This won't be the last jump,"McMillon noted. "There will be other moves above that as we manage the overall portfolio."

    There were also other changes announced which are designed to improve conditions for employees-- such as relaxed dress codes, more comfortable store HVAC settings, etc.

    Company management may be in the process of relearning the lesson that happy employees are better, more-productive employees and that good employees can play a role in boosting the bottom line. Or, they may merely be dealing with labor pressures due to a better economy--which may also hurt as shoppers with more revenue decide to head for the "greener pastures" of Target or competitors offering a nicer experience.

    Workers seem to be winning so far with this change in attitude, but it t will take some time to see if these changes also bolster the bottom line. The stock hit a 52-week low this week and has decreased @20% this year. Sales have been flat year-over-year, and Q1 earnings were down @6% yoy as well. Our models remain non-plussed and have ranked the stock a "3-Engine"--HOLD-- since September 10, 2014. The stock has declined @4% since the downgrade.

    As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Wal-Mart HERE.

    Below is today's data on WMT:

    VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION:ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on WAL-MART STORES for 2015-06-10. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that WAL-MART STORES has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Earnings Growth Rate.


    ValuEngine Forecast


    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation0.84% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 65
    1-M Forecast Return0.33%1-M Forecast Return Rank 75
    12-M Return-5.00%Momentum Rank(?) 43
    Sharpe Ratio0.51Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 75
    5-Y Avg Annual Return7.69%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 61
    Volatility15.17%Volatility Rank(?) 89
    Expected EPS Growth-2.01%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 23
    Market Cap (billions)235.07Size Rank 100
    Trailing P/E Ratio14.66Trailing P/E Rank(?) 79
    Forward P/E Ratio14.97Forward P/E Ratio Rank 62
    PEG Ration/aPEG Ratio Rank n/a
    Price/Sales0.48Price/Sales Rank(?) 84
    Market/Book3.76Market/Book Rank(?) 34
    Beta0.43Beta Rank 75
    Alpha-0.07Alpha Rank 50

    Tags: WMT, retail
    Jun 11 3:27 PM | Link | Comment!
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