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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • Transportation Stocks Ranked And Rated By ValuEngine.com And FREE REPORT On Chatham Lodging Trust

    Our Valuation WARNING is OFF: Valuation is now well within "normal" range. Overvalued stocks now make up 51.34% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 14.74% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Ten sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

    ValuEngine Index Overview

     

     

     

     

     

    IndexWeek OpenFriday PMChange% ChangeYTD
    DJIA17107.6917000-107.69-0.63%2.55%
    NASDAQ4465.844482.4216.580.37%7.32%
    RUSSELL 20001110.431108.29-2.14-0.19%-4.76%
    S&P 5001978.961968.03-10.93-0.55%6.47%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview

     

     


     

    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued48.66%
    Stocks Overvalued51.34%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%14.71%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%14.74%
    ValuEngine Sector Overview

     
















    SectorChangeMTDYTDValuationLast 12-MReturnP/E Ratio
    Consumer Staples0.50%-0.59%-0.00%9.78% overvalued9.42%23.74
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates-0.60%-1.60%-1.91%5.49% overvalued5.08%20.62
    Computer and Technology0.42%-1.18%1.50%5.29% overvalued6.05%30.03
    Medical0.75%-0.30%7.66%4.90% overvalued11.69%29.42
    Aerospace-0.25%-2.43%-3.75%3.53% overvalued18.58%19.62
    Finance0.13%-0.60%1.27%3.20% overvalued5.23%17.16
    Retail-Wholesale0.99%-0.27%-7.60%2.66% overvalued-2.74%23.31
    Transportation0.28%-1.76%3.39%2.57% overvalued10.16%18.73
    Utilities0.38%-0.63%4.19%2.03% overvalued6.54%19.37
    Consumer Discretionary0.35%-0.92%-5.72%0.94% overvalued2.34%26.72
    Business Services0.72%-0.64%-2.02%0.11% undervalued14.28%23.75
    Oils-Energy-0.91%-2.73%4.54%0.85% undervalued5.92%25.81
    Industrial Products0.02%-1.30%-5.59%2.27% undervalued5.89%22.09
    Auto-Tires-Trucks0.26%-2.48%-4.04%2.80% undervalued0.32%15.54
    Construction-0.51%-1.09%-4.00%3.79% undervalued5.16%24.05
    Basic Materials-0.88%-1.78%-2.91%12.71% undervalued-4.48%25.02

    Free Download for Readers

    As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Chatham Lodging Trust (NYSE:CLDT) is a self-advised hotel REIT, formed to invest in premium-branded upscale extended-stay and select-service hotels. The Company intends to invest primarily in hotels in large metropolitan markets in the United States. Chatham Lodging Trust expects that a significant portion of its portfolio will consist of hotels in the upscale extended-stay market, including brands such as Residence Inn by Marriott, Homewood Suites by Hilton and Summerfield Suites by Hyatt. It also intends to invest in premium-branded select-service hotels such as Courtyard by Marriott, Hampton Inn and Hampton Inn and Suites.

    ValuEngine updated its recommendation from BUY to STRONG BUY for Chatham Lodging Trust on 2014-10-02. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Chatham Lodging Trust has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Momentum.

    As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
    we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

    Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Chatham Lodging Trust HERE.

    Sector Talk--Transportation

    Below, we present the latest data on Transportation stocks from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI). Top five lists are provided for each category. We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    TRNTRINITY INDS IN41.53-5.4680.1
    TNKTEEKAY TANKERS3.54-45.0532.58
    DHTDHT HOLDINGS6.33-24.5141.29
    ALKALASKA AIR GRP42.92-6.6232.27
    ALAIR LEASE CORP32.48-14.7113.92

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    TRNTRINITY INDS IN41.53-5.4680.1
    TNKTEEKAY TANKERS3.54-45.0532.58
    DHTDHT HOLDINGS6.33-24.5141.29
    ALKALASKA AIR GRP42.92-6.6232.27
    ALAIR LEASE CORP32.48-14.7113.92

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    TRNTRINITY INDS IN41.53-5.4680.1
    ALKALASKA AIR GRP42.92-6.6232.27
    GMTGATX CORP58.53-8.9923.61
    ALAIR LEASE CORP32.48-14.7113.92
    DALDELTA AIR LINES35.286.7145.48

    Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TickerNameMkt PriceValuation(%)Last 12-M Retn(%)
    YRCWYRC WORLDWD INC19.5230010.53
    XPOXPO LOGISTICS37.4291.6869.94
    HAHAWAIIAN HLDGS13.3844.6978.4
    TKTEEKAY CORP66.8644.6659.27
    UALUNITED CONT HLD46.1343.2149.14

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: TRN, TNK, DHT, ALK, AL, GMT, DAL, YRCW, XPO, HA, TK, UAL, CLDT, transports
    Oct 03 2:58 PM | Link | Comment!
  • ValuEngine.com: Overvaluation Down To "Normal" Range, Buy Signal?

    VALUATION WATCH: Valuation is now well within "normal" range. Overvalued stocks now make up 50.36% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 15.45% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Fourteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued--one by double digits.

    With Latest Market Action, Overvaluation Now "Normal"

    ValuEngine tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges as well as @1000 Canadian equities. When EPS estimates are available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation calculation to more than 2800 stocks in our US Universe.

    We combine all of the equities with a valuation calculation to track market valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of the market. Two factors can lower these figures-- a market pullback, or a significant rise in EPS estimates. Whenever we see overvaluation levels in excess of @ 65% for the overall universe and/or 27% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation warning.

    We issued our last valuation warning on August 19, 2014. At that time, the S&P was at 1971.74. Prior to that warning, we had essentially operated under an overvalued market environment with a Valuation Warning or Watch in effect since May, 2013. We now calculate that 50.36% of stocks are overvalued and 15.45% of those stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. Yesterday's market pull back-- combined with changes in earnings and stock prices-- have resulted in figures that are now the lowest recorded since January 2, 2013.

    In addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis the declines in overvaluation have also relived some pressure. Fourteen of sixteen sectors remain overvaluedand only one of is calculated to be overvalued by double digits. This is quite different from the situation over the past few months.

    With these sorts of numbers, we find ourselves back in "normal" range from a valuation perspective. While the market may decline further, those investors looking for a "Buy" signal may certainly find one from the perspective of our valuation model. On the other hand, this rally has been unstoppable for most of the Obama Administration. Some analysts say we are due for a pullback.

    However, we do not believe that Ebola will pose a problem for the US. We do not believe that the Federal Reserve is going to hastily pull back from their current policies--which have provided the market so much succor. Nor do we find a negative economic environment within the US--with the exception of the lagging labor market and the failure of the recovery to really take off for workers.

    In the recent past, the market has shaken off these sorts of setbacks. We would expect that trend to continue. So, this momentary respite from high valuations may be a time to reinforce existing positions or make purchases of stocks which up until now had been overheated from a valuation perspective.

    The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 2013. It shows overvaluation levels in excess of 50%. We issue a Valuation Watch when the metric exceeds 60% and a Valuation Warning when the metric exceeds 65%.

    (click to enlarge)

    ValuEngine Market Overview

     

     

     

     

     

    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued49.64%
    Stocks Overvalued50.36%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%16.13%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%15.45%

     

    ValuEngine Sector Overview

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    SectorChangeMTDYTDValuationLast 12-MReturnP/E Ratio
    Consumer Staples-1.21%-1.15%-0.46%12.31% overvalued10.34%24.69
    Computer and Technology-1.83%-1.71%1.08%9.49% overvalued7.86%31.21
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates-1.09%-1.05%-1.24%9.21% overvalued6.11%21.61
    Medical-1.24%-1.15%6.65%7.50% overvalued12.86%30.15
    Aerospace-2.34%-2.21%-3.37%7.45% overvalued20.35%19.24
    Transportation-2.19%-2.08%3.03%6.37% overvalued12.37%19.62
    Retail-Wholesale-1.39%-1.32%-8.50%6.05% overvalued-0.52%23.64
    Finance-0.87%-0.76%1.14%5.22% overvalued6.19%17.31
    Consumer Discretionary-1.46%-1.33%-5.95%3.99% overvalued3.86%27.64
    Utilities-1.11%-1.07%3.85%3.32% overvalued8.40%19.69
    Business Services-1.52%-1.44%-3.04%3.01% overvalued15.12%23.60
    Oils-Energy-2.02%-1.91%5.64%2.05% overvalued7.55%24.89
    Industrial Products-1.53%-1.37%-5.48%1.06% overvalued6.41%22.04
    Auto-Tires-Trucks-3.44%-2.85%-4.43%0.38% overvalued2.43%16.31
    Construction-0.87%-0.80%-3.35%0.25% undervalued5.81%23.83
    Basic Materials-1.12%-1.01%-2.19%10.11% undervalued-3.69%24.73

    Tags: valuation
    Oct 02 1:43 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Navistar "Upgraded" To Sell By ValuEngine.com

    VALUATION WATCH IS OFF: Overvalued stocks now make up 56.6% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 18.83% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Fifteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued-- one by double digits. These are the lowest calculated overvaluation figures we have seen since May 3, 2013--at that time the SP500 was at 1597.

    Not a Star

    --Navistar "Upgraded" to Sell as it Boosts Short Side of Market Neutral Portfolio

    Navistar International (NYSE:NAV) is a holding company and its principal operating subsidiary is Navistar Int'l Transportation Corp. Navistar operates in three industry segments: truck; engine; and financial services. Its truck segment is engaged in the manufacture and marketing of medium and heavy trucks, including school buses. Its engine segment is engaged in the design and manufacture of mid-range diesel engines. The financial services operations consist of Navistar Financial Corp., its domestic insurance subsidiary and its foreign finance and insurance subsidiaries.

    Navistar shares have taken a dive over the past month, and this decline has been a boon for subscribers to our Market Neutral Newsletter. The only portfolio we offer with a short side, the Market Neutral Newsletter is uniquely positioned to profit when markets go down. Since inclusion in our latest edition, the stock has declined almost $6.00/share. As a short, it is thus providing a gain in excess of 15% in just a few weeks time.

    As Crain's Business detailed a week ago, the company recently posted a small profit, but that came about largely due to layoffs, divestitures, and plant closings rather than any real positive changes for the business. The company has failed to make the market share gains they had projected, and it has also failed to develop the sorts of new diesel technologies necessary to attract new business. So far, the company cannot provide a full product line capable of meeting newer/more stringent emissions standards.

    ValuEngine updated its recommendation from STRONG SELL to SELL for Navistar International on 2014-09-30. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Navistar International has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE P/E Ratio and Momentum.

    Below is today's data on NAV:


     






    ValuEngine Forecast
     Target
    Price*
    Expected
    Return
    1-Month32.63-0.84%
    3-Month31.97-2.86%
    6-Month31.25-5.04%
    1-Year29.60-10.06%
    2-Year29.70-9.76%
    3-Year40.3322.56%

     















    Valuation & Rankings
    Valuation3.92% overvaluedValuation Rank(?) 48
    1-M Forecast Return-0.84%1-M Forecast Return Rank 8
    12-M Return-9.79%Momentum Rank(?) 31
    Sharpe Ratio-0.06Sharpe Ratio Rank(?) 37
    5-Y Avg Annual Return-2.74%5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank 37
    Volatility45.40%Volatility Rank(?) 43
    Expected EPS Growth133.20%EPSGrowth Rank(?) 88
    Market Cap (billions)2.68Size Rank 77
    Trailing P/E Ration/aTrailing P/E Rank(?) 10
    Forward P/E Ratio20.27Forward P/E Ratio Rank 27
    PEG Ratio0.05PEG Ratio Rank 90
    Price/Sales0.25Price/Sales Rank(?) 93
    Market/Bookn/aMarket/Book Rank(?) n/a
    Beta2.08Beta Rank 12
    Alpha-0.33Alpha Rank 20

    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Oct 01 1:58 PM | Link | Comment!
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