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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Melbourne, Florida-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 8000 US, Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes ValuEngine's complex... More
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  • ValuEngine Free Weekly Newsletter May 27, 2011

     

     

     

     
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 27, 2011

     

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      ValuEngine Index Overview
    Index
    Week Open
    Thurs. Close
    Change
    % Change
    YTD
    DJIA
    12511.29 12402.8 -108.49 -0.87% 7.13%
    NASDAQ
    2815.96 2782.92 -33.04 -1.17% 4.90%
    RUSSELL 2000
    820.05 830.87 10.82 1.32% 6.03%
    S&P 500
    1333.07 1325.69 -7.38 -0.55% 5.41%
    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    48.89%
    Stocks Overvalued
    51.11%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    20.28%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    20.9%

    .

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Utilities
    0.42%
    -1.75%
    5.53%
    8.79% overvalued
    28.86%
    23.51
    Oils-Energy
    0.78%
    -7.47%
    1.90%
    8.47% overvalued
    50.81%
    48.53
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates
    0.49%
    -5.16%
    1.71%
    8.22% overvalued
    35.39%
    27.40
    Consumer Staples
    0.37%
    -4.81%
    -5.78%
    5.01% overvalued
    22.77%
    21.11
    Business Services
    0.53%
    -3.40%
    3.74%
    4.66% overvalued
    17.88%
    37.10
    Retail-Wholesale
    0.93%
    -1.16%
    6.40%
    3.99% overvalued
    27.27%
    35.14
    Industrial Products
    0.66%
    -6.67%
    1.34%
    3.32% overvalued
    32.87%
    31.75
    Computer and Technology
    1.10%
    -4.08%
    9.18%
    2.40% overvalued
    38.95%
    44.70
    Medical
    0.76%
    -0.47%
    15.71%
    2.34% overvalued
    24.38%
    34.96
    Transportation
    0.68%
    -3.98%
    -2.47%
    2.05% overvalued
    22.79%
    19.97
    Finance
    0.66%
    -1.39%
    2.04%
    1.01% overvalued
    12.27%
    25.01
    Consumer Discretionary
    0.96%
    -2.34%
    4.74%
    0.86% overvalued
    19.94%
    29.40
    Aerospace
    0.10%
    -2.17%
    10.60%
    0.77% overvalued
    28.45%
    18.45
    Auto-Tires-Trucks
    0.76%
    -7.32%
    -8.50%
    0.46% overvalued
    52.78%
    19.10
    Basic Materials
    0.42%
    -5.86%
    -5.38%
    1.70% undervalued
    51.31%
    23.94
    Construction
    1.23%
    -4.78%
    -4.89%
    4.41% undervalued
    7.03%
    48.86
      Sector Talk--Consumer Staples

      Below, we present the latest data on the Consume Staples Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    MSO
    MARTHA STWT LIV
    4.63
    -36.66
    -21.79
    SNMX
    SENOMYX INC
    5.89
    -33.69
    60.93
    MED
    MEDIFAST INC
    25.89
    -16.02
    -16.46
    ADY
    FEIHE INTL INC
    9.72
    -29.35
    -40.26
    SWM
    SCHWEITZER-MAUD
    49.56
    -20.65
    -1.22

    Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    MSO
    MARTHA STWT LIV
    4.63
    -36.66
    -21.79
    SNMX
    SENOMYX INC
    5.89
    -33.69
    60.93
    MED
    MEDIFAST INC
    25.89
    -16.02
    -16.46
    JOBS
    51JOBS INC-ADR
    58.99
    5.28
    209.01
    ADY
    FEIHE INTL INC
    9.72
    -29.35
    -40.26

    Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    CCE
    COCA-COLA ENTRP
    28.68
    -4.45
    69.91
    FMX
    FOMENTO ECO-ADR
    61.48
    -5.32
    50.72
    BRFS
    BRF-BRASIL FOOD
    18.55
    -3.87
    46.99
    EL
    ESTEE LAUDER
    99.6
    9.58
    78.14
    COT
    COTT CORP QUE
    8.63
    -14.18
    16.15

    Top-Five Consumer Staples Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    ABV
    AMBEV-PR ADR
    30.96
    105.2
    70.58
    CIGX
    STAR SCIENTIFIC
    4.73
    82.66
    215.33
    HANS
    HANSEN NATURAL
    70.82
    56.67
    86.07
    CALM
    CAL-MAINE FOODS
    28.56
    55.77
    -6.51
    WBD
    WIMM-BILL-DANN
    32.75
    46.55
    78.96

      Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on the Consumer Staples Sector from our Models HERE.

      Not a ValuEngine.com Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.   ValuEngine's award-winning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets.  Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods. 

      Currently, you can research more than 400 ADRs and other foreign stocks
    with ValuEngine.com's software and website!
     

    We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our
    Research Report Web Page.

    Free Report Download for Subscribers

    As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

      This week's free download is our report on Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)Google is a company focused on search services. Named for the mathematical term googol, Google operates web sites at many international domains, with the most trafficked being google.com. The company also serves corporate clients, including advertisers, content publishers and site managers with cost-effective advertising and a wide range of revenue generating search services.   Google made news this week with its announcement of a new Google "wallet" designed to allow smartphones running on Google's Android OS to pay for goods and services at check out counters.

    Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on GOOG HERE.

     Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Google from our models HERE.  

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE

    If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE

      What's Hot--Universe Valuations Continue Decline

    Market Declines Confirm Valuation Watch Signal Again

      The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 5500 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges.  The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries.

      We track valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of the market. Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe and 27.5% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation watch.  When overvaluation exceeds 65%, we issue a valuation warning.  

      Our watches and warnings let us know that the model thinks things are overheated, but they cannot tell us when a correction will occur, nor can they tell us its duration and depth.  In some cases the market heads for a long dive, in others we see just a momentary drop before the market resumes an upward climb. 

      Our last Valuation Watch took place from April 28th to May 4th.  We began that Valuation Watch with the SP 500 at 1355 and saw it rise to 1363 before dropping for a few weeks to a recent low of 1316.   As of today, the market is at 1325 and the overvaluation figure is at 51% while the overvaluation by 20% or more figure has receded to @20%. 

      Below, we include updated charts for the most recent Valuation Watches and Warnings.  The Valuation Watch periods are depicted in yellow while Valuation Warnings are depicted in red.  We still see that when the overvaluation spikes upward we get some market dips, although these may not be sustained or approach the levels of decline necessary to call it a "correction."  Overall, we find that the metric continues to provide some utility for market timing, allocation, and hedging strategies.

     

    Suttmeier Says
    --Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier

    If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com 

     

    Treasury Yields
    10-Year--
    (3.059) This yield ended Thursday below its 200-day simple moving average at 3.085.
    This week’s pivot is 3.170 with today’s pivot at 3.095.

     

      The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury ended Thursday below its 200-day simple moving
    average at 3.085 for the first time since December 6th. This enhances the flight to quality
    scenario and should put pressure on US stocks.

     

    Commodities and Forex 

     

    Comex Gold--($1520.6) has held above its 50-day simple moving average at $1479.7. My quarterly pivot is $1523.7 the Troy ounce has been a magnet. This week’s risky level is $1566.6.

     

    Nymex Crude--($100.24) is still between my annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92. The 200-day simple moving average is at $90.39.

     

    The Euro--(1.4129) broke below its 50-day simple moving average at 1.4340 on May 11th then failed there on a rebound last Friday, May 20th. The 200-day simple moving average is 1.3690.

     

    Major Indices

     

      In the last hour of trading on Thursday the Dow Industrial Average, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were at the cusp of their 50-day simple moving averages at 12,424, 1328 and 2786 and all three faded into the close. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are poised for weekly closes below their five-week modified moving averages at 12,473, 1332.5 and 2803 respectively, which is a longer term bearish warning for stocks. Only the Dow will continue to be overbought technically.

     

    Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages

    Dow --(12,403) Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 12,424 increases the odds that the weekly close will be below the five-week modified moving average at 12,473. Weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale is still projected to be above 8.0 at 8.1 delaying a negative weekly chart. Daily and annual value levels are 12,362 and 11,491 with weekly risky level at 12,818.

     

    S&P 500 –(1325.7) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 1332.5 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. Daily closes below the 50-day simple moving average at 1328 is a warning with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s pivot is 1326.5.


    NASDAQ – (2783) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2803 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The NASDAQ gapped below its 50-day simple moving average at 2781 on Monday and was tested on strength at 2786 on Thursday with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s pivot is 2786.


    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2326) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 2355 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. NDX gapped below its 50-day at 2338 on Monday with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s risky level is 2331.


    Dow Transports – (5406) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 5356 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative. The Transports tested and held its 50-day at 5327 on Wednesday with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s risky level is 5432.


    Russell 2000 – (830.87) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 834.24 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The small cap index gapped below its 50-day at 831.65 on Monday with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 827.09.


    The SOX – (428.24) A close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 440.01 keeps the weekly chart profile negative. The SOX is below its 50-day at 435.48 with weekly technical momentum on my MOJO scale declining below 8.0. Today’s value level is 422.59.

    Note:  For my technical momentum metrics--"MOJO"--I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

     

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    May 27 10:47 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Costco (COST,$COST) Posts Decent Numbers, ValuEngine Concurs and Rates Stock a Buy
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 25, 2011

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    Not too Costly

    Costco (COST,$COST) Posts Decent Numbers, ValuEngine Concurs and Rates Stock a Buy

      Costco Wholesale Corp. operates membership warehouses based on the concept that offering members very low prices
    on a limited selection of nationally branded and selected private label products in a wide range of merchandise categories will produce high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. This rapid inventory turnover enables Costco to operate profitably at significantly lower gross margins than traditional wholesalers, discount retailers and supermarkets.

      Costco reported earnings that rose 6% with strong same-store sales and expense controls helping to mitigate some decline in overall margins. Costco reported a profit of $324 million-- 73 cents a share, up from $306 million year-over-year.   Revenue increased 16% to $20.62 billion.   The company beat estimates on revenues but slightly missed on earnings--which had been estimated at $0.77 share.  The biggest gains in sales were in the company's Mexican and international stores.

     ValuEngine has issued a BUY recommendation for Costco on May. 25, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Costco has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE company size, volatility and risk.

     Based on available data as of May. 25, 2011, we believe that COST should be trading at $72.7. This makes COST 11.90% overvalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For COST, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $3.20, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $3.61, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.26%.

      Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on COST from our Models HERE. 

    Market Indices Data
    Index
    Latest
    Change
    YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,396.10
    39.85
    7.07%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,761.65
    15.49
    4.10%
    Russell 2000
    817.83
    7.50
    4.36%
    S&P 500
    1,321.21
    4.93
    5.05%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    51.52%
    Stocks Overvalued
    48.48%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    20.88%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    19.51%
     
    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Utilities
    0.35%
    -2.52%
    4.67%
    8.43% overvalued
    27.14%
    23.42
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates
    -0.59%
    -5.91%
    0.80%
    6.88% overvalued
    32.75%
    27.04
    Oils-Energy
    0.33%
    -9.24%
    -0.21%
    6.57% overvalued
    47.48%
    47.46
    Consumer Staples
    -0.22%
    -4.89%
    -5.94%
    4.50% overvalued
    20.93%
    20.80
    Business Services
    -0.21%
    -4.59%
    2.47%
    3.41% overvalued
    15.39%
    36.58
    Retail-Wholesale
    -0.63%
    -2.68%
    4.74%
    2.67% overvalued
    24.74%
    34.60
    Industrial Products
    -0.88%
    -7.75%
    -0.07%
    1.92% overvalued
    28.69%
    31.35
    Transportation
    -0.45%
    -5.07%
    -3.73%
    1.75% overvalued
    22.53%
    19.80
    Computer and Technology
    -0.52%
    -5.97%
    6.78%
    0.78% overvalued
    33.57%
    43.98
    Medical
    -0.34%
    -1.89%
    14.08%
    0.68% overvalued
    21.52%
    34.26
    Consumer Discretionary
    -0.37%
    -3.82%
    3.03%
    0.57% overvalued
    17.81%
    29.13
    Aerospace
    -0.45%
    -3.09%
    9.84%
    0.40% overvalued
    25.44%
    18.30
    Finance
    -0.24%
    -2.36%
    1.01%
    0.34% overvalued
    10.79%
    24.79
    Auto-Tires-Trucks
    -0.88%
    -9.54%
    -10.76%
    1.91% undervalued
    48.50%
    18.71
    Basic Materials
    0.83%
    -7.53%
    -6.97%
    2.99% undervalued
    50.10%
    23.60
    Construction
    -0.58%
    -6.66%
    -6.79%
    5.49% undervalued
    5.19%
    48.22

     

     

     

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    Tags: COST
    May 25 12:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Data on Medical Stocks, Market Levels, and ADM from ValuEngine.com

     

     

    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 20, 2011

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    Free Report Download for Subscribers

    As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.  

      This week's free download is our report on Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE:ADM). Archer Daniels Midland Company is a world leader in agricultural processing and fermentation technology. ADM is one of the world's largest processors of soybeans, corn, wheat and cocoa. ADM is also a leader in the production of soybean oil and meal, ethanol, corn sweeteners and flour. The Company works with farmers across the world to turn these crops into soymeal and oil, corn sweeteners, flour, cocoa and chocolate, ethanol and biodiesel, as well as a wide portfolio of other value-added food ingredients, animal nutrition and industrial products.

    Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on ADM HERE.

     Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Archer Daniels Midland   from our models HERE.  

    If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

      ValuEngine Index Overview
    Index
    Week Open
    Thurs. Close
    Change
    % Change
    YTD
    DJIA
    12594.84
    12605.3
    10.46
    0.08%
    8.88%
    NASDAQ
    2815.9
    2823.31
    7.41
    0.26%
    5.48%
    RUSSELL 2000
    831.75
    835.16
    3.41
    0.41%
    5.24%
    S&P 500
    1334.77
    1343.6
    8.83
    0.66%
    6.84%
    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    46.18%
    Stocks Overvalued
    53.82%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    18.57%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    22.92%

    .

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates
    -0.45%
    -2.85%
    4.07%
    10.71% overvalued
    32.01%
    28.07
    Utilities
    0.32%
    -1.65%
    5.39%
    9.93% overvalued
    23.67%
    23.71
    Oils-Energy
    0.10%
    -7.45%
    1.71%
    7.31% overvalued
    43.80%
    47.46
    Consumer Staples
    0.05%
    -1.98%
    -2.96%
    6.98% overvalued
    19.65%
    21.13
    Business Services
    0.29%
    -0.93%
    6.19%
    6.86% overvalued
    13.38%
    37.31
    Retail-Wholesale
    -0.40%
    -0.48%
    7.06%
    5.09% overvalued
    22.39%
    35.02
    Transportation
    0.25%
    -2.43%
    -1.00%
    4.69% overvalued
    19.87%
    20.25
    Industrial Products
    0.02%
    -4.60%
    3.48%
    4.37% overvalued
    25.23%
    32.00
    Computer and Technology
    -0.11%
    -3.30%
    9.75%
    4.13% overvalued
    31.96%
    45.11
    Aerospace
    0.72%
    -0.58%
    12.62%
    3.81% overvalued
    26.14%
    18.86
    Consumer Discretionary
    0.45%
    -0.86%
    6.61%
    3.59% overvalued
    16.42%
    29.85
    Medical
    0.12%
    0.42%
    16.64%
    3.24% overvalued
    19.36%
    34.98
    Finance
    0.02%
    -0.10%
    3.33%
    2.73% overvalued
    8.79%
    25.20
    Auto-Tires-Trucks
    -0.04%
    -5.48%
    -6.65%
    1.83% overvalued
    48.51%
    19.56
    Basic Materials
    -0.24%
    -6.26%
    -5.91%
    2.34% undervalued
    44.84%
    23.79
    Construction
    0.49%
    -4.17%
    -4.19%
    2.48% undervalued
    3.45%
    49.12
      Sector Talk--Medical Stocks

      Below, we present the latest data on the Medical Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    BTX
    BIOTIME INC
    5.03
    N/A
    -19.39
    DCTH
    DELCATH SYS INC
    5.84
    N/A
    -59.16
    TTHI
    TRANSITN THERAP
    3.17
    -51.39
    -17.45
    BMTI
    BIOMIMETIC THER
    7.95
    -34.48
    -39.36
    DEPO
    DEPOMED INC
    8.04
    -11.62
    125.84

    Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    AFFY
    AFFYMAX INC
    6.77
    -61.01
    -73.31
    BMTI
    BIOMIMETIC THER
    7.95
    -34.48
    -39.36
    BTX
    BIOTIME INC
    5.03
    N/A
    -19.39
    DCTH
    DELCATH SYS INC
    5.84
    N/A
    -59.16
    BCRX
    BIOCRYST PHARMA
    3.33
    -47.91
    -56.3

    Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    LLY
    LILLY ELI & CO
    38.71
    -11.87
    20.59
    PDLI
    PDL BIOPHARMA
    6.52
    -47.09
    28.85
    PFE
    PFIZER INC
    21.03
    5.45
    38.54
    SNY
    SANOFI-AVENTIS
    39.23
    4.38
    37.22
    AZN
    ASTRAZENECA PLC
    51.99
    3.6
    29.68

    Top-Five Medical Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    VRUS
    PHARMASSET INC
    99.04
    300
    240.79
    NEOP
    NEOPROBE CORP
    5.03
    300
    197.63
    SVA
    SINOVAC BIOTECH
    4.01
    244.51
    -1.47
    INHX
    INHIBITEX INC
    3.51
    163.13
    36.05
    REGN
    REGENERON PHARM
    54.84
    148.19
    95.79

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    with ValuEngine.com's software and website!
     

    We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our
    Research Report Web Page.

    What's Hot--Suttmeier in the News

    Chief Market Strategist Makes the Financial Media Rounds

      ValuEngine.com Chief Market Strategist appeared on the Business News Network and Yahoo Finance this week to offer his market analysis and his take on the continued bad news for the housing market.   Suttmeier noted that  "Stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically," and went on to say that "the May 2nd highs for so many [assets classes] marked a significant top for this market." 

      Below, we link to his appearances so you may watch them yourself.  Click the images for clips of Suttmeier's latest financial media appearances.

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    May 20 1:21 PM | Link | Comment!
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