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Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Newtown, Pennsylvania-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 7000 US, Japanese, and Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes... More
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  • China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME, $CCME) Crashes and Burns on Short Sellers' "Pump and Dump" Claims
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    February 3, 2010
    ATTENTION Advanced Investors and Finance Professionals:
    If you are reading this you should download ValuEngine Institutional Software to see how VE’s powerful quantitative tools can increase your productivity and effectiveness.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    VALUATION WARNING:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 65% of our universe and almost 32% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  ALL sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

    Short Pick Success

    China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME, $CCME) Crashes and Burns on Short Sellers' "Pump and Dump" Claims

     China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (CCME, $CCME), is China's largest television advertising operator that generates revenue by selling advertisements on its network of television displays installed on over 18,000 express buses originating in thirteen of China's most prosperous regions. These regions include the five municipalities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing and eight economically prosperous provinces, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Sichuan, Hebei, Anhui, Hubei and Shandong which generate nearly half of China's GDP.

     China MediaExpress was the Business Services Sector short pick for our ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Newsletter for January.  After the initial selection and subsequent re-balance, the stock made some gains and looked like a loser for the short side.  But since January 28th, the stock has been on a downward slide and is currently showing a 35% gain for the portfolio.  Several analysts have downgraded the stock amidst allegations that the company has engaged in "pump and dump" activity designed to enrich its management at the expense of investors.  This stock has been extremely volatile and for the moment the shorts are certainly having their way.

     ValuEngine has issued a SELL recommendation for China MediaExpress on Feb. 03, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that China MediaExpress has the probability to UNDERPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits UNATTRACTIVE volatility.

     Based on available data as of Feb. 03, 2011, we believe that CCME should be trading at $15.76. This makes CCME 5.42% overvalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For CCME, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $2.54, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $2.88, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.64%.

      Remember that our models re-calculate all forecast and valuations at the of every trading day so the price declines for CCME are not included in the current model data.

      Subscribers can check out the latest figures on China MediaExpress from our models HERE. 

      Not a ValuEngine Premium Website member?  Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.   ValuEngine's award-winning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets.  Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods.  Please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    With the ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter, you can run your own portfolio like a hedge fund to manage risk and profit in any market environment.

    Click HERE or on the Image Below to Sign Up for the ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Newsletter

     

     

    Market Indices Data
      Latest Change YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,040.80 -1.21 4.00%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,749.62 0.06 3.65%
    Russell 2000
    796.51 0.35 1.64%
    S&P 500
    1,303.75 -0.28 3.67%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    35.17%
    Stocks Overvalued
    64.83%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    15.31%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    31.91%

     

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
    Oils-Energy 0.45% 0.52% 6.01% 35.66% overvalued 42.42% 46.60
    Basic Materials -0.15% -0.11% -1.38% 21.12% overvalued 54.24% 38.70
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.40% 0.45% 4.66% 15.98% overvalued 39.40% 36.23
    Industrial Products 0.32% 0.39% 3.30% 15.96% overvalued 34.23% 33.15
    Business Services -0.00% 0.07% 2.18% 15.64% overvalued 22.26% 33.51
    Computer and Technology 0.49% 0.67% 4.66% 14.63% overvalued 40.65% 38.31
    Auto-Tires-Trucks -2.71% -2.59% -2.25% 14.41% overvalued 35.98% 19.60
    Transportation -0.86% -0.79% -1.66% 13.61% overvalued 30.34% 28.06
    Aerospace 0.59% 0.32% 4.82% 13.00% overvalued 38.41% 19.34
    Finance -0.38% -0.32% 1.33% 9.42% overvalued 19.18% 28.16
    Utilities -0.26% -0.25% 0.68% 9.10% overvalued 18.38% 20.70
    Retail-Wholesale -0.84% -0.79% -2.32% 8.94% overvalued 30.19% 27.38
    Consumer Staples 0.11% 0.17% -0.90% 7.51% overvalued 20.01% 24.60
    Consumer Discretionary -0.03% 0.03% 0.67% 7.19% overvalued 25.44% 30.77
    Construction -0.24% -0.15% 4.40% 4.58% overvalued 16.52% 29.98
    Medical -0.34% -0.29% 2.41% 0.17% overvalued 19.99% 35.99

     

     
     
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    Tags: CCME
    Feb 03 2:52 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Manitowoc (MTW, $MTW) Jumps Hard on Good Earnings
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    February 2, 2010
    ATTENTION Advanced Investors and Finance Professionals:
    If you are reading this you should download ValuEngine Institutional Software to see how VE’s powerful quantitative tools can increase your productivity and effectiveness.

     

    VALUATION WARNING:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 65% of our universe and almost 32% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  ALL sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    Another Big Gain for the VE Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter

    Manitowoc (MTW, $MTW) Jumps Hard on Good Earnings

      Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW, $MTW) is a diversified, capital goods manufacturer. They are principally engaged in the design and manufacture of commercial ice machines, ice/beverage dispensers and refrigeration products for the food service, lodging, convenience store, healthcare and the soft-drink bottling and dispensing industries, the design and manufacture of cranes and related products which are used by the energy, construction, mining and other industries, and ship-repair, conversion, and new construction services for the maritime industry.

      Manitowoc was selected as the Industrial Products Sector pick for our ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Portfolio Newsletter on January 18th. In just two weeks since that recent re-balance, the stock is up @30% and currently leads all 32 equities in this month's portfolio.  On Monday Manitowoc reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings of $0.11 per share --compared to a loss of $0.09 per share last year.  The firm almost tripled the consensus estimate of $.04/share. The stock was upgraded by RBC Capital and jumped hard yesterday and is currently trading higher by 5.9% on above average volume so far today.

      Our models are not that sanguine for the firm's future, and it is currently only rated a "3-Engine" HOLD.  This is in line with other analyst estimates but could change as the recent positive earnings reports work their way through the system. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that Manitowoc Company has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE expected EPS growth and momentum, but UNATTRACTIVE market/book ratio and P/E ratio.

      Based on available data as of Feb. 02, 2011, we believe that MTW should be trading at $16. This makes MTW 6.95% overvalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For MTW, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $0.08, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $0.56, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.61%. 

      Our models' historical valuation analysis data indicates that the best time to buy MTW is when shares are under $16.94 and the best time to sell is when they are above $19.84.  Current price targets will have to be re-calculated due to the big jump in share price over the past two days.

      Subscribers can check out the latest figures on Manitowoc Company, Inc. from our models HERE. 

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    With the ValuEngine Forecast Model Market Neutral Strategy Newsletter, you can run your own portfolio like a hedge fund to manage risk and profit in any market environment.

    Click HERE or on the Image Below to Sign Up for the ValuEngine Forecast Model MNS Newsletter

     

     

    Market Indices Data
      Latest Change YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,041.20 1.06 4.01%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,754.24 3.05 3.82%
    Russell 2000
    798.62 -0.27 1.91%
    S&P 500
    1,304.83 -2.76 3.75%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    35.12%
    Stocks Overvalued
    64.88%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    15.36%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    31.84%

     

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
    Oils-Energy 1.98% 0.00% 5.25% 34.56% overvalued 44.17% 49.11
    Basic Materials 2.94% 0.00% -1.33% 22.70% overvalued 56.69% 40.28
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates 1.49% 0.00% 4.19% 18.88% overvalued 40.00% 35.41
    Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.86% 0.00% 0.37% 15.72% overvalued 39.74% 19.93
    Business Services 1.66% 0.00% 2.13% 15.64% overvalued 23.17% 33.40
    Industrial Products 2.52% 0.00% 2.84% 15.23% overvalued 35.06% 33.07
    Transportation 1.75% 0.00% -0.80% 14.49% overvalued 32.53% 28.32
    Computer and Technology 1.66% 0.00% 3.84% 13.27% overvalued 41.25% 37.73
    Aerospace 1.12% 0.00% 4.63% 12.42% overvalued 40.40% 19.25
    Finance 1.64% 0.00% 1.66% 9.42% overvalued 20.37% 28.20
    Utilities 1.33% 0.00% 0.94% 9.28% overvalued 19.54% 20.77
    Retail-Wholesale 1.16% 0.00% -1.59% 8.32% overvalued 28.06% 26.63
    Consumer Staples 0.84% 0.00% -0.85% 7.50% overvalued 21.13% 24.79
    Consumer Discretionary 1.70% 0.00% 0.63% 6.97% overvalued 26.34% 30.88
    Construction 2.01% 0.00% 4.51% 4.67% overvalued 18.40% 29.92
    Medical 1.41% 0.00% 2.74% 0.18% overvalued 21.44% 36.19

     

     
     
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    Tags: MTW
    Feb 02 12:32 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Builder Supply Company NCI Building Systems (NCS, $NCS) Ranks High in all Forecast Windows
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    January 31, 2010
    ATTENTION Advanced Investors and Finance Professionals:
    If you are reading this you should download ValuEngine Institutional Software to see how VE’s powerful quantitative tools can increase your productivity and effectiveness.

     

    VALUATION WARNING:  Our models find that overvaluation is approaching levels typically seen when a market correction is imminent. Overvalued stocks now make up almost 60% of our universe and 27% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  15 of 16 sectors are now calculated to be overvalued.

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    If you Build It...

    Builder Supply Company NCI Building Systems (NCS, $NCS) Ranks High in all Forecast Windows

     NCI Building Systems, Inc (NCS, $NCS). is an integrated manufacturers of metal products for the building industry. They operate manufacturing and distribution facilities and sell metal building components and engineered building systems, offering extensive metal product lines in the building industry with well-recognized brand names.

      ValuEngine has issued a STRONG BUY recommendation for NCI Building Systems on Jan. 31, 2011.  A screen for top One-Month Forecast Return stocks today placed NCS in the top-five of our more than 5500 equities.  This lower volume equity --@250k/shares yesterday--does not come with EPS estimates in our database so we cannot provide a valuation calculation.  But it is really beat down from its peak of $336.60 back in 2006 at the height of the building boom. A split since then and the blow up of the real estate boom and the recession means the stock is currently trading at $13. 

      Analysts have recently found that NCI Building shares at current price levels represent a value and note that the company is positioned to benefit from moves toward "green" building.

      Subscribers can check out the latest figures on NCI Building Systems, Inc from our models HERE. 

     Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

     

     

    Market Indices Data
      Latest Change YTD
    Dow Jones
    11,854.20 30.47 2.39%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,698.21 11.32 1.71%
    Russell 2000
    785.29 9.89 0.21%
    S&P 500
    1,283.53 7.19 2.06%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    40.16%
    Stocks Overvalued
    59.84%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    16.61%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    27.17%

     

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
    Oils-Energy -1.20% 1.82% 1.82% 28.47% overvalued 40.31% 47.90
    Basic Materials -1.14% -4.85% -4.85% 17.76% overvalued 54.59% 39.35
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates -1.97% 2.87% 2.87% 15.48% overvalued 38.80% 34.34
    Auto-Tires-Trucks -4.40% -1.35% -1.35% 14.16% overvalued 40.30% 20.11
    Business Services -2.59% 0.19% 0.19% 12.02% overvalued 20.88% 32.69
    Transportation -2.85% -2.85% -2.85% 11.91% overvalued 29.81% 27.99
    Industrial Products -2.37% -0.77% -0.77% 10.95% overvalued 32.53% 32.03
    Computer and Technology -2.39% 7.62% 1.60% 9.39% overvalued 38.33% 36.85
    Aerospace -2.10% 2.73% 2.73% 8.75% overvalued 37.29% 18.81
    Finance -2.16% -0.46% -0.46% 6.71% overvalued 18.24% 27.83
    Utilities -1.78% -0.90% -0.90% 6.58% overvalued 17.96% 20.36
    Retail-Wholesale -2.25% -2.81% -2.81% 5.56% overvalued 27.15% 26.09
    Consumer Staples -2.24% -1.84% -1.84% 4.98% overvalued 19.47% 24.52
    Consumer Discretionary -2.32% -1.54% -1.54% 3.76% overvalued 24.18% 30.46
    Construction -2.82% 1.89% 1.89% 1.58% overvalued 15.81% 29.25
    Medical -2.11% 0.81% 0.81% 2.28% undervalued 19.75% 35.88

     

     
     
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    Tags: NCS
    Jan 31 2:40 PM | Link | Comment!
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