Seeking Alpha

Steve Hach's  Instablog

Steve Hach
Send Message
Steve Hach is the Senior Editor at ValuEngine.com, a Melbourne, Florida-based stock valuation and forecast service. ValuEngine utilizes Ivy League financial research as the basis for its coverage of more than 8000 US, Canadian, and other foreign stocks. Hach utilizes ValuEngine's complex... More
My company:
ValuEngine
View Steve Hach's Instablogs on:
  • ValuEngine.com Rates Top-Forecast Utilities Stocks
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 17, 2011

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE. Power to the People

    ValuEngine.com Rates Top-Forecast Utilities Stocks

      Below, we present the latest data on the Utilities Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.  Utilities--along with Medical Sector tickers-have come to the fore lately as investors seek safety from faltering Tech, Finance, and Commodities stocks.  Here we provide a top-twenty list of utilities tickers sorted by one-month forecast return.  All of these tickers are currently Buy-rated.

    Ticker
    Name
    Mkt Price
    Valuation(%)
    Last 12-M Retn(%)
    Forecast 1-Month Retn(%)
    Forecast 1-Yr Retn(%)
    P/E Ratio
    Industry
    SBS
    SABESP -ADR
    56.91
    30.07
    49.8
    3.24
    14.12
    7.59
    UTILITY-WATER SUPPLY
    KKPNY
    ROYAL PTT-ADR
    14.62
    -9.72
    20.43
    2.96
    11.95
    9.21
    DIVERSIFIED COMM SERVICES
    BTM
    BRASIL TELECOM
    26.96
       
    N/A
    59.91
    2.75
    8.39
       
    N/A
    DIVERSIFIED COMM SERVICES
    BT
    BT GRP PLC-ADR
    31.4
    -15.08
    73.1
    2.7
    11.03
    9.69
    DIVERSIFIED COMM SERVICES
    TEF
    TELEFONICA S.A.
    23.71
    -3.37
    37.29
    2.61
    11.47
    7.57
    DIVERSIFIED COMM SERVICES
    EE
    EL PASO ELEC CO
    30.2
    -0.32
    42.79
    2.52
    10.13
    14.2
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    PPL
    PPL CORP
    27.75
    -23.71
    14.57
    2.5
    11.59
    9.64
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    HNP
    HUANENG POWER
    22.87
    -35.76
    9.69
    2.49
    10.73
    13.9
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    BIP
    BROOKFIELD INFR
    24.17
    7.91
    50.59
    2.44
    10.08
    12.31
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    VIP
    VIMPELCOM LTD
    14.09
    -4.21
    -9.16
    2.42
    10.51
    9.69
    DIVERSIFIED COMM SERVICES
    POR
    PORTLAND GEN EL
    25.48
    4.38
    37.21
    2.29
    9.6
    13.75
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    ETR
    ENTERGY CORP
    68.89
    -12.67
    -6.93
    2.21
    10.01
    9.71
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    AES
    AES CORP
    12.53
    -12.42
    17.54
    2.17
    7.3
    13.42
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    UGI
    UGI CORP
    32.12
    -4.32
    23.73
    2.16
    8.67
    13.29
    UTILITY-GAS DISTRIBUTION
    IDA
    IDACORP INC
    39.31
    10.65
    17.34
    2.11
    8.55
    12.94
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    AEE
    AMEREN CORP
    29.91
    -0.15
    26.2
    2.09
    8.17
    11.16
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER
    NTLS
    NTELOS HOLDINGS
    19
    -9.41
    8.32
    2.07
    7.6
    17.34
    WIRELINE - REGIONAL (RURAL)
    TNDM
    NEUTRAL TANDEM
    16.36
    -10.6
    20.83
    2.05
    8.61
    15.84
    WIRELINE - NATIONAL
    ALSK
    ALASKA COMM SYS
    9
    -12.82
    16.88
    2.03
    5.3
    38.76
    WIRELINE - REGIONAL (RURAL)
    EXC
    EXELON CORP
    41.86
    -17.48
    5.6
    2.02
    8.41
    9.91
    UTILITY-ELECTRIC POWER

      Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on the Utilities Sector from our Models HERE. 

      Market Indices Data
    Index
    Latest
    Change
    YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,561.70
    -68.38
    8.50%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,832.66
    -12.40
    6.78%
    Russell 2000
    838.55
    -2.11
    7.01%
    S&P 500
    1,335.42
    -6.66
    6.18%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    48.44%
    Stocks Overvalued
    51.56%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    18.85%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    20.47%
     
    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates
    -1.02%
    -1.99%
    4.36%
    9.53% overvalued
    27.15%
    28.07
    Utilities
    -0.78%
    -2.46%
    4.50%
    8.72% overvalued
    20.05%
    23.61
    Consumer Staples
    -0.83%
    -2.47%
    -3.53%
    5.59% overvalued
    16.30%
    20.82
    Oils-Energy
    -1.42%
    -8.74%
    -0.00%
    5.41% overvalued
    33.21%
    46.60
    Business Services
    -1.29%
    -1.89%
    4.90%
    5.31% overvalued
    9.60%
    36.73
    Retail-Wholesale
    -1.69%
    -0.65%
    6.54%
    4.79% overvalued
    19.27%
    34.99
    Transportation
    -1.52%
    -3.17%
    -1.84%
    3.95% overvalued
    15.18%
    20.10
    Computer and Technology
    -2.03%
    -4.00%
    8.56%
    3.10% overvalued
    27.17%
    44.44
    Industrial Products
    -0.88%
    -4.77%
    3.13%
    3.02% overvalued
    20.02%
    31.73
    Aerospace
    -0.51%
    -1.15%
    12.22%
    2.77% overvalued
    20.16%
    18.80
    Medical
    -0.77%
    -0.58%
    14.85%
    2.30% overvalued
    15.05%
    34.92
    Consumer Discretionary
    -1.57%
    -1.64%
    5.35%
    1.81% overvalued
    12.14%
    29.74
    Finance
    -0.77%
    -0.79%
    2.63%
    1.60% overvalued
    5.07%
    24.98
    Auto-Tires-Trucks
    -1.12%
    -4.93%
    -6.02%
    0.98% overvalued
    42.00%
    19.66
    Construction
    -0.87%
    -5.19%
    -4.52%
    3.35% undervalued
    -0.68%
    48.59
    Basic Materials
    -1.08%
    -7.49%
    -7.22%
    3.93% undervalued
    34.04%
    23.46

     

      Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE  

     
     
    Close this window
    ValuEngine.com - Rational advice, smarter investing.
    2
     
     
     
    Tags: SBS, OIBR, BT, TEF, EE, PPL, HNP, BIP, VIP, POR, ETR, AES, UGI, IDA, AEE, NTLS, IQNT, ALSK, EXC, utilities
    May 17 2:47 PM | Link | Comment!
  • ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter, May 13, 2011

     

     

    Go to ValuEngine.com
      May 13, 2011

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

    VALUATION WATCH: Valuation at current levels is considered to be within "normal" range and therefore the Valuation Watch is OFF.

    ValuEngine Index Overview
    Index
    Week Open
    Thurs. Close
    Change
    % Change
    YTD
    DJIA
    12637.83 12695.9 58.07 0.46% 9.66%
    NASDAQ
    2828.24 2863.04 34.8 1.23% 7.92%
    RUSSELL 2000
    832.38 847.53 15.15 1.82% 8.15%
    S&P 500
    1340.2 1348.65 8.45 0.63% 7.24%
    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    42.41%
    Stocks Overvalued
    57.59%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    16.68%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    24.34%

    .

    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector
    Change
    MTD
    YTD
    Valuation
    Last 12-MReturn
    P/E Ratio
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.72% 0.23% 6.56% 12.16% overvalued 26.94% 28.59
    Utilities 0.57% -0.62% 6.54% 11.40% overvalued 20.67% 23.96
    Business Services 0.56% 0.75% 7.95% 9.12% overvalued 11.32% 38.05
    Oils-Energy -0.31% -6.84% 2.35% 8.16% overvalued 32.07% 47.37
    Retail-Wholesale 0.75% 1.88% 9.27% 7.90% overvalued 17.82% 35.64
    Consumer Staples 0.47% -1.31% -2.27% 7.73% overvalued 15.07% 20.98
    Computer and Technology 0.47% -1.02% 12.21% 7.26% overvalued 28.62% 45.70
    Transportation -0.10% -0.81% 0.62% 6.84% overvalued 15.00% 20.49
    Industrial Products -0.00% -2.73% 5.48% 6.35% overvalued 19.93% 32.39
    Aerospace 0.81% 0.55% 14.15% 5.70% overvalued 19.34% 19.18
    Consumer Discretionary 0.23% 0.91% 8.06% 5.50% overvalued 12.22% 30.39
    Medical 0.80% 0.72% 16.39% 4.77% overvalued 15.02% 35.30
    Auto-Tires-Trucks -0.09% -2.44% -3.50% 4.39% overvalued 40.47% 20.17
    Finance 0.35% 1.07% 4.50% 4.17% overvalued 4.78% 25.34
    Construction 0.16% -3.09% -2.35% 0.63% undervalued -1.90% 49.08
    Basic Materials -0.32% -5.35% -5.10% 1.45% undervalued 33.77% 23.90
      Sector Talk--Utilities Stocks

      For the first time in a very long while utilities stocks were in the news this week as some sector rotation took place.  The decline in commodities prices led to a flight to safety.  Below, we present the latest data on the Utilities Sector from our Institutional software package (Pending:VEI).  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares.

    Please Click Here to Download a FREE Demo of ValuEngine's Professional VEI Software Package.

    Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    PT PORTUGAL TELCOM 12.5 3.72 23.76
    SBS SABESP -ADR 58.76 34.99 52.46
    TEF TELEFONICA S.A. 24.24 -0.67 29
    BT BT GRP PLC-ADR 32.71 -11.1 90.29
    PPL PPL CORP 28.03 -22.52 14.04

    Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    PT PORTUGAL TELCOM 12.5 3.72 23.76
    SBS SABESP -ADR 58.76 34.99 52.46
    PPL PPL CORP 28.03 -22.52 14.04
    TEF TELEFONICA S.A. 24.24 -0.67 29
    HNP HUANENG POWER 22.93 -35.26 8.83

    Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Composite Score

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    BT BT GRP PLC-ADR 32.71 -11.1 90.29
    TEF TELEFONICA S.A. 24.24 -0.67 29
    PPL PPL CORP 28.03 -22.52 14.04
    PT PORTUGAL TELCOM 12.5 3.72 23.76
    NZT TELECOM CORP NZ 9.12 -18 31.6

    Top-Five Utilities Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

    Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M Retn(%)
    S SPRINT NEXTEL 5.17 300 24.58
    VG VONAGE HOLDINGS 4.84 102.73 164.48
    GLBC GLOBAL CROSSING 29.75 96.22 98.47
    TWTC TW TELECOM INC 22.74 80.73 25.64
    GAS NICOR INC 55.82 41.95 34.18

     

      Currently, you can research more than 400 ADRs and other foreign stocks
    with ValuEngine.com's software and website!
     

    We also offer research reports on more than 700 Canadian Companies on our
    Research Report Web Page.

      What's Hot--Latest FDIC Report is Posted

    Richard Suttmeier Warns of Continued Housing/Banking Trouble in Latest ValuEngine FDIC Report

      ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is an expert on the US Banking System and uses the health of the system as a leading economic indicator.   He distills his thoughts on the banking system in our FDIC Report.  The latest update of the report is now available. 

     

      In his summary of the report he notes the following:

     

    Our banking regulators, Congress, and the Obama Administration have ignored the root causes of “The Great Credit Crunch” – the bursting of the housing bubble and the problems in community banks, which are the key to economic growth on Main Street, USA. The costs of the wave of bank failures continues to stifle the recovery, and more problems come to the fore the longer the crisis drags on...

      Recently, the FDIC projected that the cost of bank failures between 2011 and 2015 will be $21 billion, compared to $24 billion for all failures in 2010. The FDIC projects that at current assessment rates the DIF will end 2011 positive and will reach 1.15% of estimated insured deposits in 2018.

      The FDIC also remains too optimistic about additional bank failures. The FDIC list of problem banks rose to 884 FDIC-insured financial institutions at the end of 2010, which is 11.5% of all 7,657 banks under the FDIC’s watch. Because of the $250,000 per bank guarantee on insured deposits, the size of the pool of insured deposits is also on the rise.

      Before the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Bill, the DIF was required to be at 1.15% of insured deposits by the end of June 2013--five years from when the ratio fell below 1.15%.

      Under Dodd-Frank, the DIF fund reserve ratio must reach 1.35% by September 30, 2020. So Dodd-Frank kicked this can down the road by seven years and increased the percentage deemed to be in regulatory balance. In my opinion, the Dodd-Frank Bill puts additional pressure on the larger FDIC-insured financial institutions, including those considered “too big to fail.”

      Due to these new requirements, as well as the continued trouble in the banking system, I don't believe that the FDIC will be able to meet the funding requirements for the DIF-- even by 2020.

      In addition, as the FDIC increases bank assessments consumers will face additional costs which will hinder the recovery. Banks will most likely pass on the costs associated with higher assessments in the form of new consumer and business loan fees, higher interest rates, tighter credit standards, etc.  I am sorry to say that even at this late date I remain convinced that we are nowhere near the end of the crisis in our banking system and the associated ills plaguing the credit and housing markets.

      A critical portion of this report is the ValuEngine List of Problem Banks.  Problem banks are publicly traded FDIC insured financial institutions who are overexposed to Construction & Development Loans and/or Nonfarm nonresidential real estate loans, with “1-Engine”--Strong Sell, or “2-Engine”—Sell.  The report also includes a listing of all other engine-rated banks-- and those with “n/a” ratings but forecast figure data points according to our models-- in violation of FDIC guidelines vis-a-vis loan exposures.

    Our latest ValuEngine FDIC Report is now posted. The report contains loan exposure and/or ValuEngine datapoints on valuation, forecast, and ratings for all of the institutions on our List of Problem Banks. 

    Subscribers can download it HERE.

    Others interested in the report may find out more on our website by clicking the image below.

     

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE.

     

     

     An archive of this weekly newsletter is available here.

     
     
    Close this window
    ValuEngine.com - Rational advice, smarter investing.
     
     
     
    Tags: JNJ, PT, SBS, TEF, PPL, HNP, NZTCY, S, VG, GLBC, TWTC, GAS, utilities
    May 13 11:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • ValuEngine.com Rates British Telecom Firm BT Group (BT,$BT) a Buy
    Go to ValuEngine.com
    May 9, 2011

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE

    VALUATION WATCH:  Valuation at current levels is considered to be within "normal" range and therefore the Valuation Watch is OFF.

    Universe Leader

    ValuEngine.com Rates British Telecom Firm BT Group (BT,$BT) a Buy

     BT Group plc is a holding corporation which operates primarily through British Telecommunications plc, an
    international provider of tele-communications services. The Company provides local and long-distance telephone call products and services in the United Kingdom, telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, international telephone calls to and from the United Kingdom and telecommunications equipment for customers' premises.

      A screen of our 5500 equity universe with our valuation and forecast tools for stocks with minimum market prices of $3, daily volume in excess of 100k shares/day, undervaluation, and short-term forecasts above the 95 percentile ranking put BT at the top of the results on a composite score basis.

    Please Click Here to Sign Up for a FREE TRIAL of Our Award-Winning Stock Valuation and Forecast Service

     ValuEngine has issued a BUY recommendation for BT Group plc on May. 09, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that BT Group plc has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE company size, momentum and P/E ratio.

     Based on available data as of May. 09, 2011, we believe that BT should be trading at $36.93. This makes BT 13.57% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For BT, we base this on actual earnings per share (NYSEARCA:EPS) for the previous four quarters of $3.24, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of $3.46, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 4.30%.

     Subscribers can check out the latest figures on BT Group plc from our models HERE.  

     

    Market Indices Data
      Latest Change YTD
    Dow Jones
    12,704.00 65.27 9.73%
    NASDAQ Composite
    2,846.57 19.01 7.30%
    Russell 2000
    842.20 8.86 7.47%
    S&P 500
    1,347.57 7.37 7.15%

     

    ValuEngine Market Overview
    Summary of VE Stock Universe
    Stocks Undervalued
    46.05%
    Stocks Overvalued
    53.95%
    Stocks Undervalued by 20%
    17.59%
    Stocks Overvalued by 20%
    21.24%
    ValuEngine Sector Overview
    Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12-MReturn P/E Ratio
    Multi-Sector Conglomerates 1.29% -0.54% 5.99% 10.64% overvalued 32.49% 28.42
    Utilities 0.43% -1.74% 5.24% 9.03% overvalued 24.02% 23.70
    Oils-Energy 0.74% -6.03% 3.55% 8.25% overvalued 39.34% 47.51
    Business Services 0.53% -1.12% 5.88% 6.65% overvalued 15.86% 38.28
    Transportation 0.72% -0.74% 0.44% 5.91% overvalued 20.24% 20.40
    Aerospace 0.77% -1.70% 11.78% 5.41% overvalued 24.82% 19.05
    Consumer Staples -0.16% -2.33% -3.34% 5.41% overvalued 17.47% 20.86
    Computer and Technology 0.52% -1.99% 10.81% 4.89% overvalued 31.32% 45.04
    Industrial Products 0.30% -3.25% 4.53% 4.60% overvalued 24.47% 31.82
    Retail-Wholesale 0.19% -0.84% 6.63% 4.21% overvalued 21.93% 35.09
    Consumer Discretionary 0.08% -0.37% 6.92% 3.48% overvalued 14.58% 29.74
    Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.62% -1.80% -2.82% 2.83% overvalued 47.42% 20.04
    Finance 0.12% -1.92% 1.76% 2.57% overvalued 8.24% 25.12
    Medical 0.35% -1.55% 13.97% 1.80% overvalued 16.51% 34.82
    Construction 0.02% -2.87% -2.22% 0.57% undervalued 3.35% 49.37
    Basic Materials 1.05% -4.56% -4.35% 0.65% undervalued 44.41% 24.51

     

      April 29, 2011

    Seeking Alpha Readers should check out our Seeking Alpha VE Investment App HERE

       

     
     
    Close this window
    ValuEngine.com - Rational advice, smarter investing.
     
     
     
    Tags: BT
    May 09 2:38 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.