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Steve Picarillo

 
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  • Chair Yellen, Where Have You Been? Fed Lowers GDP Forecast Again - Why So Long?
    Sun, Jun. 22 5 Comments

    Summary

    • As 2014 ticks away, it becomes apparent the GDP would not grow by the Fed's 3.0% forecast rate, yet the Fed did not revise its forecast until just now.
    • Once again, the Federal Reserve’s forecast that “stronger growth is right around the corner” (but it doesn’t ever seem to materialize) has become the norm. Markets clearly recognize this.
    • Stronger growth remains on the more distant horizon. This, however, is good for those concerned about increased interest rates, as rates are not likely to move higher anytime soon.
  • The May 2014 Jobs Report - Back To The Starting Line - However, The Blocks Have Been Moved
    Wed, Jun. 11 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Employers hired 217,000 workers in May 2014, effectively lifting the job numbers to where they were before the financial crisis and recession.
    • However, since 2008, the US population grew by almost 15 million. As such, an additional 8+ million jobs must be created to be truly at par with pre-recession levels.
    • While jobs were created, the quality of these jobs has diminished. Yet the job numbers will allow the Fed to continue its current trajectory of gradually reducing monthly bond purchases.
    • Given the weakness in GDP since the beginning of 2014, it is unlikely that the job situation will get materially better in the coming months. Good news for Fed watchers!
  • Madame Chair Please Note: There Is Something Brewing On The Horizon
    Sun, Mar. 23 16 Comments

    Summary

    • US economic growth is slowing, suggesting that the US is at risk of slipping into recession.
    • Recessions typically occur every seven to 10 years. Although external or shock events may alter the normal pattern, nonetheless, the timing for a recession is right.
    • While the severe weather that blanketed much of the US was certainly a driver behind the drop in certain activity, there are more deep-rooted economic causes.
  • Investors Take Note: China's 'Lehman Moment' Is Looming, Help Is Not On The Way
    Fri, Mar. 21 FXI, PGJ, GXC 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Recent defaults in China are threatening to change investor perceptions of the safety of Chinese investments.
    • The weakening property markets in China could slow the Chinese economy and potentially weaken Chinese banks.
    • Investors have seen this before with Bear Stearns, Lehman and the Irish Banks, so we know how the book could end.
    • Help may not be on the way as it appears that the Chinese government is willing to see defaults as it shifts to a more market-driven economy.
  • J.C. Penney Shifts Into Reverse Mode, But It May Be Too Late
    Apr. 9, 2013 JCP 6 Comments
  • Investors Should Dig Deep And Look Beyond The Standard Economic Statistics
    Apr. 4, 2013 SPY, DIA Comment!
  • The Norwegian Oil Fund Surges, Investors Should Take Note
    Mar. 12, 2013 1 Comment
  • The U.S. Adds 236,000 Jobs, Unemployment Falls To 7.7% - But Do The Numbers Tell The Real Story?
    Mar. 8, 2013 Comment!
  • Banking Reform: Do We Need More Regulation Or Just Better Regulation?
    Jan. 25, 2013 5 Comments