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Steve Zachritz  

PRO Articles
PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
  • Rosetta Resources - Pulls Back On Reins To Run Another Day - A Pre Call Note
       • Wed, Feb. 25 ROSE 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Capex slashed by 71% and growth put on hold as a result.
    • Estimates to fall and stock likely to over react to the downside.
    • New covenants and existing hedges provide further breathing room.
    • The move to slowdown preserves the balance sheet, removes risk of debt bloat and allows them to fight another day (at higher prices).
  • California Resources Corp.: Oily Name To Watch
       • Dec. 31, 2014 CRC 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Oily new California name likely to be overlooked given current oil market back drop.
    • Lack of hedges will be desirable when oil prices stabilize and rise in 2015.
    • Strong margins and deep asset base likely make it a target if it doesn't move up when oil does.
  • Northern Oil & Gas: Oil Price Move Overdone Relative To Oil's Impact On Cash Flow
       • Dec. 9, 2014 NOG 6 Comments

    Summary

    • NOG is off 62% since summer despite no move in 2015 EBITDA estimates.
    • A $15 move in oil vs current Street pricing yields a 7% corresponding move in EBITDA due to their hedges.
    • Shorts are trying to make smoke where there is no fire, acting on low oil prices - multiple refutations below.
  • Northern Oil & Gas Volumes Exceed Expectations; Valuation Disconnect Persists
       • Nov. 8, 2014 NOG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Record Q3'14 volumes exceeded street expectations.
    • The balance sheet remains solid, and 2015 expected production is largely hedged.
    • Valuation remains disconnected (more so than usual due to oil dip), but the non-operated model is clearly working.
  • Emerald Oil - Q314 Miss Due To Weather; Taking A More Conservative Tack On 2015 - Pre-Call Note
       • Nov. 5, 2014 EOX Comment!

    Summary

    • 3Q14 was a miss due to weather.
    • 2015 guidance reduced vs preliminary view to accommodate a lower oil price environment & preserve the balance sheet.
    • After modeling changes, the name remains cheap and the balance sheet is more safeguarded.
  • Parsley Energy ---- Addressing Inventory Concerns
       • Aug. 27, 2014 PE 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite strong economics, market concerns over leasehold have resumed since a strong 2Q14 report.
    • Acquisition addresses this by growing contiguous position in Core and Tier 1 acreage.
    • Bonus: Strong first Tier 1 result.
  • Carrizo Oil & Gas - Good Getting Better
       • Aug. 23, 2014 CRZO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Eagle Ford bread and butter play continues to improve, while driving volume and EBITDA growth.
    • The Niobrara play offers show-stopping early days results.
    • Niobrara and Utica plays to offer a plethora of H2'14 catalysts.
  • Bonanza Creek: Greater Wattenberg Play Keeps Getting Better - Q2 '14 Pre Call Note
       • Aug. 9, 2014 BCEI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 2Q14 EBITDA misses on in line volumes but higher production tax expense.
    • Better than expected longer term Nio B downspaced well results.
    • Successful thin zone Codell test will expand prospective acreage footprint.
    • And 3 more successful longer laterals (1 best in show so far, 2 others with very flat decline rates).
  • Memorial Resource Development: An Interesting New Pure Play Cotton Valley Name
       • Jun. 14, 2014 MRD 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Stacked Pay Cotton Valley Sand Player.
    • Strong returns from an unexpected area as Terryville area gets a reboot.
    • Strong balance sheet, big drilling inventory, and essentially cash flow neutral from the start.
    • Near-term catalysts and the potential for a big reserves upgrade at the end of the year.
    • Not overly pricey to "peers" at IPO.
  • Parsley Energy - An Inexpensive Pure Play, Core Of Core Permian IPO
       • May. 21, 2014 PE 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Parsley is coming to market at a reasonable valuation among a peer group of high priced Permian pure plays.
    • We expect the deal to be well received with future horizontal success driving the multiple (and volumes) higher.
    • Parsley's acreage is "Core of Core" in the Midland Basin with a Delaware Basin Wildcard.
  • Rex Energy - Group Swoon Provides Rare Opportunity
       • Jan. 16, 2014 REXX 12 Comments
  • Oasis - Big Bakken Buy Means More Of A Good Story To Like
       • Sep. 10, 2013 OAS 12 Comments
  • Triangle Petroleum - Undervalued Bakken Player
       • Sep. 6, 2013 TPLM 58 Comments
  • Bonanza Creek - Horizons Continue To Expand And Name Remains Cheap Despite The Run
       • Aug. 15, 2013 BCEI 5 Comments
  • Bonanza Creek - The Ponderosa Only Gets Better
       • Mar. 19, 2013 BCEI 9 Comments
  • Osage Exploration - Making Progress In The Miss Lime
       • Feb. 28, 2013 OEDV 28 Comments
  • Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash
       • Jan. 31, 2013 MCEP 17 Comments