PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
Rosetta Resources - Pulls Back On Reins To Run Another Day - A Pre Call Note
- Capex slashed by 71% and growth put on hold as a result.
- Estimates to fall and stock likely to over react to the downside.
- New covenants and existing hedges provide further breathing room.
- The move to slowdown preserves the balance sheet, removes risk of debt bloat and allows them to fight another day (at higher prices).
California Resources Corp.: Oily Name To Watch
- Oily new California name likely to be overlooked given current oil market back drop.
- Lack of hedges will be desirable when oil prices stabilize and rise in 2015.
- Strong margins and deep asset base likely make it a target if it doesn't move up when oil does.
Northern Oil & Gas: Oil Price Move Overdone Relative To Oil's Impact On Cash Flow
- NOG is off 62% since summer despite no move in 2015 EBITDA estimates.
- A $15 move in oil vs current Street pricing yields a 7% corresponding move in EBITDA due to their hedges.
- Shorts are trying to make smoke where there is no fire, acting on low oil prices - multiple refutations below.
Northern Oil & Gas Volumes Exceed Expectations; Valuation Disconnect Persists
- Record Q3'14 volumes exceeded street expectations.
- The balance sheet remains solid, and 2015 expected production is largely hedged.
- Valuation remains disconnected (more so than usual due to oil dip), but the non-operated model is clearly working.
Emerald Oil - Q314 Miss Due To Weather; Taking A More Conservative Tack On 2015 - Pre-Call Note
- 3Q14 was a miss due to weather.
- 2015 guidance reduced vs preliminary view to accommodate a lower oil price environment & preserve the balance sheet.
- After modeling changes, the name remains cheap and the balance sheet is more safeguarded.
Parsley Energy ---- Addressing Inventory Concerns
- Despite strong economics, market concerns over leasehold have resumed since a strong 2Q14 report.
- Acquisition addresses this by growing contiguous position in Core and Tier 1 acreage.
- Bonus: Strong first Tier 1 result.
Carrizo Oil & Gas - Good Getting Better
- Eagle Ford bread and butter play continues to improve, while driving volume and EBITDA growth.
- The Niobrara play offers show-stopping early days results.
- Niobrara and Utica plays to offer a plethora of H2'14 catalysts.
Bonanza Creek: Greater Wattenberg Play Keeps Getting Better - Q2 '14 Pre Call Note
- 2Q14 EBITDA misses on in line volumes but higher production tax expense.
- Better than expected longer term Nio B downspaced well results.
- Successful thin zone Codell test will expand prospective acreage footprint.
- And 3 more successful longer laterals (1 best in show so far, 2 others with very flat decline rates).
Memorial Resource Development: An Interesting New Pure Play Cotton Valley Name
- Stacked Pay Cotton Valley Sand Player.
- Strong returns from an unexpected area as Terryville area gets a reboot.
- Strong balance sheet, big drilling inventory, and essentially cash flow neutral from the start.
- Near-term catalysts and the potential for a big reserves upgrade at the end of the year.
- Not overly pricey to "peers" at IPO.
Parsley Energy - An Inexpensive Pure Play, Core Of Core Permian IPO
- Parsley is coming to market at a reasonable valuation among a peer group of high priced Permian pure plays.
- We expect the deal to be well received with future horizontal success driving the multiple (and volumes) higher.
- Parsley's acreage is "Core of Core" in the Midland Basin with a Delaware Basin Wildcard.
- Rex Energy - Group Swoon Provides Rare Opportunity
- Oasis - Big Bakken Buy Means More Of A Good Story To Like
- Triangle Petroleum - Undervalued Bakken Player
- Bonanza Creek - Horizons Continue To Expand And Name Remains Cheap Despite The Run
- Bonanza Creek - The Ponderosa Only Gets Better
- Osage Exploration - Making Progress In The Miss Lime
- Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash