Mid-Con Energy Update - Volumes And Distributions Set To Flow Higher [View article]
I would not expect to see a flood of units here. Listen to their conference calls, talk to them on the phone and you'll get a sense of their measured approach to running the company and caring the for the units. The revolver will continue to expand with reserve growth and as such there's no need, knowing what we know now, for more units at this time, barring a bigger acquisition in the near. If they came across a big deal then maybe they do a balanced offering of units and debt but the deal would have to be very good and my sense from talking to them is that, never say never, offering units is not on the near term list of things they want to do. They're growing at a nice clip as is. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying no new units ever (they did a small raise last Fall) but I think they will be more than a little careful with the way they fund growth, hedge to insure cash flow, and thereby protect and growth the distribution. Easiest way to do accretive deals is to fund them with low cost borrowings.
Mid-Con Energy Update - Volumes And Distributions Set To Flow Higher [View article]
I'm not a big fan of price targets, especially for yield names. I think it drifts higher with the distribution, as a back of the envelope distribution supported thought I'd say $28 to $30 6 months out would not be much of a surprise. Longer term will depend on how 2014 shapes up but thoughts are they up distribution for 2014 over 8% vs 2013 (as a start) and that it gravitates to a 10 to 12% as 2014 progresses; would see stock doing at least that well then too, better if they are able to take in more of these kinds of acquisitions and continue to show improving flood response.
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
Agreed Bill ... name has little following with whatever the SA crowd is, by far the weakest reading tally of any name I can write on. Ah well, someday they will take note, at a level high than this one.
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
BCEI 1Q13 Notes - we do not see high line pressures in the Wattenberg as a problem for us relative to guidance this year - over $300 mm in liquidity, see Spring redetermination adding modestly to revolver - 3 Niobrara C wells to be drilled this quarter - will be at 8 completed wells per month by end of the quarter (as opposed to 6.5 net for the whole 1Q which was covered in the post) Volumes hit by 500 BOEpd in the quarter due to offsetting completion downtime .. this is included in the guidance for the year - very pleased with the Codell 90 rate - Nio C – also holding in strong , consistent with B Bench decline rate - Long Lateral #2 – incorporated lessons from the first well, put the liner in the full lateral on the second well, successfully did 40 stage frac, - will drill one more long lateral in 3Q - 30 total days on the 40 acre well, not ready to call an IP, but very encouraged by this well and on data from industry neighbors. Cotton Valley program - 3 of the 5 acre wells at fracced at January, encouraged by pressures, trying to determine if they are finding undepleted sands or underdepleted sands … encouraged so far, 3 more get completed this quarter. - expansion of gas processing in the Mid Cont completed on time. LOE – up due to freezing conditions, but LOE will start to decline on a per unit basis.
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
Sure. Re REXX, growth profile there, under promise over deliver character of the last 8 quarters, and Utica on the cusp,and Illinois Basin program warrant a better multiple for them than their current level indicates.
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
You know you are comparing grapes and grapefruit, right?
Also, since you don't have a model, you should know that just using Street numbers, GST is more expensive, not less, on a forward cash flow basis than HK and that's pro forma the Hilltop sale and their new debt issue. I wouldn't put the two names in the same basket for valuation purposes as HK is much oilier than GST (83% for HK with GST moving from the 20%'s to 33%) and then there's the scale issue.
On the HK EBITDA, it has already come down from just over $800 mm prior to the reduction to full year guidance so "comes down" comment is pretty much taken care of.
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
On the Utica comment above, they had a detailed comment on the CC about why no IP. Well is still cleaning up, production is inclining, and he did later call the flowback "awesome". IPs are over rated. Longer term data are needed anyway. Said everyone up there is watching the well.
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
Mid-Con Energy Update - Volumes And Distributions Set To Flow Higher [View article]
Mid-Con Energy Update - Volumes And Distributions Set To Flow Higher [View article]
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
- we do not see high line pressures in the Wattenberg as a problem for us relative to guidance this year
- over $300 mm in liquidity, see Spring redetermination adding modestly to revolver
- 3 Niobrara C wells to be drilled this quarter
- will be at 8 completed wells per month by end of the quarter (as opposed to 6.5 net for the whole 1Q which was covered in the post)
Volumes hit by 500 BOEpd in the quarter due to offsetting completion downtime .. this is included in the guidance for the year
- very pleased with the Codell 90 rate
- Nio C – also holding in strong , consistent with B Bench decline rate
- Long Lateral #2 – incorporated lessons from the first well, put the liner in the full lateral on the second well, successfully did 40 stage frac,
- will drill one more long lateral in 3Q
- 30 total days on the 40 acre well, not ready to call an IP, but very encouraged by this well and on data from industry neighbors.
Cotton Valley program
- 3 of the 5 acre wells at fracced at January, encouraged by pressures, trying to determine if they are finding undepleted sands or underdepleted sands … encouraged so far, 3 more get completed this quarter.
- expansion of gas processing in the Mid Cont completed on time.
LOE – up due to freezing conditions, but LOE will start to decline on a per unit basis.
Bonanza Creek Q1 2013 Pre-Call Note: Drilling Down, The Story Is On Track For 60% Growth [View article]
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
http://bit.ly/15GpHuO
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]
Also, since you don't have a model, you should know that just using Street numbers, GST is more expensive, not less, on a forward cash flow basis than HK and that's pro forma the Hilltop sale and their new debt issue. I wouldn't put the two names in the same basket for valuation purposes as HK is much oilier than GST (83% for HK with GST moving from the 20%'s to 33%) and then there's the scale issue.
On the HK EBITDA, it has already come down from just over $800 mm prior to the reduction to full year guidance so "comes down" comment is pretty much taken care of.
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Halcon Resources: Does This Oily Hawk Still Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Energy Operations Updates: Halcon And Gastar [View article]