Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
VD - all E&Ps trade on forward multiples of cash flow. I was an E&P analyst at Jefferies. It's not wishful thinking, its math. So you have no model here, apparently just muddle.
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
We wrote this piece not long ago, before the Street adjusted to the new guidance. There's a summary model included. Note the EBITDA multiples are all going to be close to 5x on 2013 estimates as its appreciated slightly since this was written. Pretty far from 30x my friend.
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
E&P's trade on forward multiples of cash flow, not rearview proforma looks. What do you have for 2013 EBITDA as they move to an 80% oil mix and move to move volumes to the 40,000 BOEpd range? And on what price deck and operation cost per unit assumptions? Thanks much!
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - Getting Paid To Wait As Natural Gas Recovers [View article]
Thanks Zorg.
Out of SJT as of yesterday after thinking changes on this year's revised budget. Will likely be interested from a lower price point or later with higher natural gas prices a little closer to reality.
Note the Coal county acreage listed, its been in the filings, but not highlighted. That's an oily Arkoma Woodford play. Probably gets tested before year end. page 17- much improved map of their activity in the Miss Lime in Logan County page 19 – good format for updating what's up. 5 wells producting, one more than I had, 2 more flowing back, 3 waiting on frac, and 3 drilling. Busy, busy, busy. They're also showing he operators, note the Stephens wells in the mix, that's the other brother of the brokerage firm. Smart outfit. Noting also the first Woodford test for them is flowing back, Devon already had a good Woodford producer in the area. (outlined on page 23) They are progressing as expected.
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]
Good potential for them to grow it at a modest annual rate (single digits %). That's the guidance for this year and you have ample inorganic growth opportunities out there they can bolt on from time to time, layering in new recompletion and/or flood opportunities on top of base production. Given the small size of their production base and the conservative style of management I'd look for that to be the game plan going forward. That would likely drag the units slowly higher over time to maintain something close to the current yield relative to other MLP's. We see gradually higher oil prices as well so given their almost 100% oiliness that's expected to, over time, increase the desirability of the units and the yield. Watch for them to hedge a big wedge of expected production each year to help ensure the program.
Bonanza Creek Energy Update: 2012 Model Highlights Value [View article]
Agreed Bill, thinking they offer their own shares by mid year at $35+, planning to chat with them soon to try and get a read. From the IPO until now they always suggested to me "not without a $30 handle" and my thought would be we could use a little more liquidity and a revolver reset after they get the reserves numbers out and we are moving into 2Q or so.
Oasis Petroleum - Fundamentals In Overdrive, Stock In Neutral But Not For Long [View article]
Jan 31 ops update. Production guidance mid is above where I had them for 2013, Capex down $110 mm but drilling same number of wells, they just got a lot cheaper on a proved barrels in the ground basis. Well costs have fallen as per plan. Saying back end loaded which should not be a shocker as that's normal. They have the liquidity in hand to pay for the 2013 budget but will be generating almost enough EBITDA to so as well, so less expansion of the balance sheet this year. Nice.
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]
Re Water - sourced from supply wells and then continuously recirculated (after separation). I only put the EPA piece in because SA wants people to think of any risks and post it. I don't consider it something that will be a problem.
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Halcon Resources: Why Does This Oily Hawk Fly At A Jumbo Jet Altitude? [View article]
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust - Getting Paid To Wait As Natural Gas Recovers [View article]
Out of SJT as of yesterday after thinking changes on this year's revised budget. Will likely be interested from a lower price point or later with higher natural gas prices a little closer to reality.
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]
Osage Exploration - Little Miss Lime Player Carves Out Niche [View article]
http://bit.ly/14M88GG
Note the Coal county acreage listed, its been in the filings, but not highlighted. That's an oily Arkoma Woodford play. Probably gets tested before year end.
page 17- much improved map of their activity in the Miss Lime in Logan County
page 19 – good format for updating what's up. 5 wells producting, one more than I had, 2 more flowing back, 3 waiting on frac, and 3 drilling. Busy, busy, busy. They're also showing he operators, note the Stephens wells in the mix, that's the other brother of the brokerage firm. Smart outfit.
Noting also the first Woodford test for them is flowing back, Devon already had a good Woodford producer in the area. (outlined on page 23)
They are progressing as expected.
Oasis Petroleum - Fundamentals In Overdrive, Stock In Neutral But Not For Long [View article]
Today's OAS comment (site open to the public today)
http://bit.ly/WjPYsZ
Bonanza Creek Energy Update: 2012 Model Highlights Value [View article]
http://bit.ly/pqYr1I
Bonanza Creek Energy Update: 2012 Model Highlights Value [View article]
Weekly natural gas storage review
Natural Gas Demand, Supply + Imports Slide Shows
OAS, PVA and some other comments.
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]
Bonanza Creek Energy Update: 2012 Model Highlights Value [View article]
Oasis Petroleum - Fundamentals In Overdrive, Stock In Neutral But Not For Long [View article]
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]
Mid-Con Energy Partners - The Flood That Yields A Rising Tide Of Cash [View article]