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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • A Performance Past And Forward Look At Three Of My Twelve U. S. Sectors

    A Performance Past and Forward Look at Three of My Twelve U. S. Sectors

    The third of - - My (three) Sectors of Twelve are:

    Health Care

    Industrials

    Retail:

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    Note: This is a lengthy article - Please, I say please take the time to read it carefully and perhaps more than once. I believe there is much offered for you to profit by.

    The graphic below is simple and what you must understand - - IF - - You want to consistently be a profitable Investor.

    My Sector Performance Table below lists my select U.S. General Market - - Sectors which is a rather broad breakdown and perspective of the General Stock Market and Indices.

    In this Table, I share my current Forecasts and Opinions and 5-Year Performance - - Updated at least Semi-Monthly. My Sector focus is to constantly dissect each Sector to have a very accurate Forecast as to its direction - Bullish or Bearish.. There are other Sectors that I use for confirmation and "sub-groups" for each Sector and they are my select 350+ Industry Groups.

    I write a weekly article for a new Industry Group in Doug Short's - Advisor Perspectives blog. It is one of the very finest and elite financial blogs in cyber-space. You will find quite a number of excellent financial authors. I recommend you tune into his Blog.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/

    At this writing these three Sectors contribute to the suggestion that the very old Bull General Market is deteriorating. It is always a slow process of topping a multi-year bull market. It therefore requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework each day over the year helps much more than you might think.

    Forecasting the General Market for me is fun. It can only be done by breaking down (dissecting), first the Sectors and then the component Industry Groups of each Sector. I use very basic fundamental - valuations that are always confirmed by my technical analysis. My Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology has served both me and my Clients well for over 5- years. Simple stated - it works!

    Fundamental - Valuation is a very mechanical / mathematical process but over the more recent years it has become an art as well as a science.

    Cycle Analysis for me means identifying Bullish and Bearish Primary and Secondary Inflection Points for the General Market, Sectors, Industry Groups, Commodities, Companies and ETFs. Yes, it can be done and this series articles will share how I go about the task. You might find my specific article and animated graphic on Cycles may be of interest. Click here.

    Forecasting is a tool that I use primarily because it offers me what I call "lead time." That means, I have time to "Cherry Pick" the Best of the Best for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst for Bearish Cycles.

    Table of Past 5-Year Performance and Forecast for the Coming Year for: Health Care / Industrials / Retail Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Table of Current Status and Performance for: Health Care / Industrials / Retail Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Long Term Charts for the three Sectors

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Every Sector on the planet has at one time or another taken some big hits over the years. Check these longer-term 20-Year charts out!

    Just Click:

    Health Care -- $DJUSHC

    Industrials -- $DJUSIN

    Retail -- $DJUSRT

    Percent Chart for Perspective of the three Sectors

    (click to enlarge)

    Perspective, there are calculable reasons, ahead of making Investment Decisions, why some Sectors clearly out-perform other Sectors. This fact is also true with Industry Groups, Companies and ETFs. Note that the Financial Sector vs. the Gold Sector has a spread of over 100% in this two year period

    Again, this all can be determined "ahead of your making Investment Decisions." It simple requires more work, experience, a calculator and know-how.

    Combining my Fundamental - Valuations with my very unique Technical Analysis always provides a clear perspective of the Best of the Best (individual) Securities for Bullish Cycles and the Worst of the Worst (individual) Securities for Bearish Cycles. Anything in between the Best and the Worst - I call "Also Rans" and should never be considered to be part of your portfolio.

    Summary

    At this writing these three Sectors are suggesting that the very old Bull General Market is notable deteriorating. Topping a long-term Bull Market is always a slow process of that requires much patience and discipline. Doing your homework and gaining perspective each day helps more than you might think.

    Of the 12 Sectors, currently three are notable Losers, three more are on the Bearish Edge and six remain relatively Bullish Strong and a Hold. For reference, just six months ago there was only one Loser. My Forecasts suggest that within the next six months a notable number, (definitely not all), of my Sectors will become Losers.

    It is simple mathematics with a few caveats. When there are mostly Bullish Sector, Industry Groups and Companies you have a Bull market. It should be somewhat obvious that - when the, "vice-versa" occurs your have a Bear market.

    The trick is knowing the Bulls from the Bears! I do that task very well because I actually live with those critters. As this never ending Cycling Process occurs within the General Market Indices ( Dow 30, Nasdaq, S&P, etc) and the Sectors that make up the General - - both You and the Marketplace will be euphoric during Rallies - BUT - all Rallies followed by scary and expensive Pull-Backs. A little study on your part of the past few decades of the Marketplace will clearly confirm the above as FACT ! ( see my above three charts! )

    Be aware that a Bear Market is in the making. This Bearish fact has been on a crescendo for many months now!

    Selectivity / Discipline / Patience

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that are readily available. Consistent annual profitability comes only with long-hours / hard work and experience. Don't forget these three important words.

    My work with these Sectors is fun for me. Sharing it with the Public is a pleasure and I indeed hope you will profit by my work.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SPY, QQQ, DIA

    Tags: QQQ, DIA
    Apr 23 11:35 AM | Link | Comment!
  • General Electric Company – Consistently Profitable And Reliable - Except

    General Electric Company - Consistently Profitable and Reliable - Except

    General Electric Company consistently and reliable provided profits within the Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is on a Hold, but like all Large Cap Companies, it follows the Marketplace. That's a positive in Bull Markets but is financially very hurtful in Bear Markets. The trick is to know the difference? I DO !

    The highs of $28. this year to the lows of $24. should be telling you much about the Market and about GE. Are you listening?

    You may want to review my previous articles on GE (just click). They will provide you with the exact history of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations for Clients. I preach "selectivity" and that can be both calculated and quantified. Perspective of one Company vs. others within an Industry Group becomes a powerful tool for maximizing profits.

    My Performance for General Electric can be found in my table below and is about 34% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).

    Look at the Profits for GE - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    General Electric - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years - - PLEASE - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on GE. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My on going management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.31%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    General Electric Company and other Diversified Companies are tracking the marketplace well.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    (click to enlarge)

    If you own or are considering owning diversified companies, the securities are becoming a mixed bag. General Electric is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations and have placed it on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Nike, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be only moderate.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $27, is selling for $26.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for GE !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Aerospace Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (GE), (MMM), (ETN), (TYC), (HON), (CSL), (SI), (ATU), (OTCPK:TOSBF). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    GE, MMM, ETN, TYC, HON, CSL, SI, ATU, TOSBF

    Tags: GE, MMM, ETN, TYC, HON, CSL, SI, ATU, TOSBF
    Apr 23 10:34 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Citigroup, Inc. – Banks The Good, Bad And Ugly

    Citigroup, Inc. - Banks the Good, Bad and Ugly

    Citigroup, Inc. has ceased to be one of the leading Banking Companies. It should have been sold at about $50 - $52 - sell on the next rally. ( I gave it too much space, but that sometimes happens ! ) I said in recent articles that I believe it will continue to try to test its highs in the coming weeks - but will fail. It has been on a steady rise in price since the lows of $24.00 per share in June 2012. My weekly study / forecast of all my High Profile Financial / Major Banks is how I determine WHY.

    My previously written articles on C (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Citigroup can be reviewed in the below table and is over 100% per year for the last 1.5 years.

    Look at the Profits for Citigroup - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Citlgroup - has: a) gone nowhere in 20 years but DOWN - - BI Suggest You - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on C. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 0.08% This is one of those Companies that is stingy with dividends.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance:

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Citigroup, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in July 2011 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be relatively strong.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is off of its highs of $54. selling for $48.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for C !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Major Bank Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (C), (BAC), (WFC), (JPM), (KEY), (USB), (FITB), (BK), (STI), (BBT), (PNC), (STT), (CMA), (NTRS), (MTB), (BKU). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    C, BAC, WFC, JPM, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU

    Tags: C, BAC, WFC, JPM, KEY, USB, FITB, BK, STI, BBT, PNC, STT, CMA, NTRS, MTB, BKU
    Apr 23 9:34 AM | Link | Comment!
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