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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Caterpillar, Inc. – It Ran Like A Gazelle And Now Is Barely Crawling Again

    Caterpillar, Inc. - It Ran Like a Gazelle and Now is Barely Crawling Again

    Caterpillar, Inc. clearly has not been one of the leading Ex-Dow 30 Companies until recently. Since April - ten months ago, it began doing well again - BUT !. In 2009 through early 2011 it was the number one Dow 30 stocks to own. How things change! And there are always "hind-sight" reasons why. My job is to provide "fore-sight" and I do! It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down.

    My previously written articles on CAT (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Caterpillar can be found in the table below and is well over 140% per year for the three year holding period.

    Remember the primary trend is currently down! Remember the axiom - - "don't buck the trend?

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.48%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Caterpillar, Inc. and other Heavy Machinery Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Utility Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Caterpillar, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Poor - Flat" and on the Decline. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. The current price of $97.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for CAT !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Caterpillar, Inc.

    Caterpillar, Inc. has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of -(NYSE:CAT): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAT&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31500825899&a=304969448

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (CAT), (NYSE:MTW), (NYSE:DE), (NYSE:TEX), (NYSE:CMI), (NYSE:MTOR), (NASDAQ:WPRT), (NYSE:TRN). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN

    Tags: CAT, MTW, DE, TEX, CMI, MTOR, WPRT, TRN
    Mar 24 1:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Travelers Companies, Inc. – Caution Is Warranted And There Is No Insurance

    Travelers Companies, Inc. - Caution is Warranted and there is No Insurance

    Travelers Companies has been, I said "has been" one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is now on a Hold - Cash, and my Fundamental and Technical Indicators are breaking down. My analytics endorses the above title.

    My previously written articles on TRV (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Travelers can be found in my table below and is about 31% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.38%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Travelers Companies, Inc. and other Property-Casualty Insurance Companies are tracking the marketplace well.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like guidance and direction to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth" Asset Allocation Model, please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning property-casualty insurance companies, the securities are increasingly becoming a mixed bag. Travelers is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation. It is on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be only moderate.

    Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $91, is selling for $83.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for TRV !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Travelers Companies, Inc.

    Travelers has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of -(NYSE:TRV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37190349544&a=330115505

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Property-
    Casualty Insurance Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (TRV), (PRG), (NYSE:ACE), (NYSE:MBI), (NYSE:ALL), (NYSE:XL), (NYSE:CB), (NYSE:BRO), (NYSE:AGO), (NYSE:HTH), (NYSE:ORI), (NYSE:AJG), (NYSE:AXS), (NYSE:FAF), (NYSE:UVE), (OTCQB:AFAI), (NYSE:L). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    TRV, PRG, ACE, MBI, ALL, XL, CB, BRO, AGO, HTH, ORI, AJG, AXS, FAF, UVE, AFAI, L

    Tags: TRV, ACE, MBI, ALL, XL, CB, BRO, AGO, HTH, ORI, AJG, AXS, FAF, UVE, AFAI, L
    Mar 24 12:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple, Inc. – The Shinny Apple Has Too Many Brown Spots

    Apple, Inc. - The Shinny Apple has too Many Brown Spots

    Apple, Inc. clearly has not been one of the leading Companies on my Favorable List for a long time. I turned Bearish and went to cash in November 2012 over a year ago. It is currently on a Hold-Cash, and my Indicators are continuing to break down. This has been a nice rally, but I would never participate or consider owning with the amount of Un-Favorable data and information in my notes.

    My previously written articles on AAPL (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Apple, Inc. is available by clicking: (NASDAQ:AAPL). I treat Apple just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.27%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Apple, Inc. and other Computer Hardware Companies are tracking the Utilities sector well. There is always an end to a rally and many Technology Companies are not producing the price accent ion that is expected. There are very valid reasons why!

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like to "Invest Wisely" in my Income & Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may be lead to believe! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning conventional electricity companies, the securities are becoming a mixed and rather negative bag. Apple, Inc. is currently relatively weak technically and I have reservations about my fundamental valuation; however, it is on my Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold-Cash. Profits were taken in July and cash is my current safe haven. For me, cash is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains relatively strong but are "Flat" and un-impressive. That produces future declining valuation projections.

    Technically _ ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators are clearly breaking down. It is again in a current mini pull-back since December from about $558 to a current price of $535.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for APPL !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Apple, Inc.

    Apple, Inc. has taken some big hits over the years!

    URL for (20-years of -(OTC:APPL): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91377749790&a=300758175

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Conventional Electricity Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (OTC:APPL), (NYSE:EMC), (NASDAQ:NTAP), (NASDAQ:DELL), (NYSE:HPQ), (NYSE:DDD), (NYSE:FIO), (NASDAQ:WDC), (NASDAQ:SGI), (NASDAQ:SSYS), (NASDAQ:STX), (NASDAQ:SMT), (NYSE:AUO), (NYSE:NCR). And, more . . .

    If you are seeking guidance or direction, please feel free to email me. My personal blog or site is: Investing Wisely.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR

    Tags: AAPL, EMC, NTAP, DELL, HPQ, DDD, FIO, WDC, SGI, SSYS, STX, SMT, AUO, NCR
    Mar 24 12:47 PM | Link | 1 Comment
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