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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Amazon.com, Inc. – Performing As It Was Forecast And Should Be - Except

    Amazon.com, Inc. - Performing as it was Forecast and Should Be - Except

    Amazon (was), as expected and Forecast reaching new highs in each previous market rally. This is WHY Fundamentals supported by sound Technical Analysis - ALWAYS produces superior profits. Finding these gems is not all that hard.

    This is a standard and general remark that I often make to my Clients: "It's fundamentals tell me that it should continue to do well until there is a major break in the general market. Yes, it is over-priced but it has been for many months.

    The current pull-back is telling a similar, yet different story. The next rally will be extremely important as to whether or not it is prudent to Hold Amazon.com. A one-hundred point drop in any stock is significant. Asset Managers MUST - preserve profits for their Clients and few do a decent job of that. I Do !

    My previously written articles on AMZN (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Amazon.com, Inc. is available by clicking: (AMZN) An annualized profit 109% over the past few years Ain't Bad! I treat Amazon just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My High Profile Cyclicals / Consumer Services / Internet Commerce Companies continue to be strong with few exceptions. Companies like (AMZN) have Earned their strong position in the marketplace.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth Investors - - As you know Amazon pays no Dividend !

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Amazon.com, Inc. and other Retail - Internet Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (AMZN) is in a strong Rally it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. My Forecasts have been "on the button" even with the 20+% Pull-Back of late 2011. Re-Buying after that was easy.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth and (sometimes) Aggressive Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is even more bright as you may think - the only thing that can stop it is a General Market that turns Bearish!

    If you own or are considering owning Internet Commerce Companies, the securities require "Selectivity" (see below). Amazon.com, Inc. is currently strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuations, therefore I have placed it on an Initial (very light - but increasing) Bearish Forecast - "Warning." This is because I am a very cautious Asset Manager.

    That means: I am cautiously and continuing to HOLD - Nike, Inc. since having sent Formal Recommendations in May 2009 to my Clients -- the Public never sees my timely Email communications to my Clients until well after my - Emailing those Formal Recommendations - - - I do respond to prospective Client's - Questions and Thoughts. )

    My Current Opinion is Hold with (modest) Caution !

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ), my Valuations remains very strong but are producing some declining projections. Even with greatly superior earnings when a decline begins the price of the Company most often follows.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ), my Indicators have not started to break down, but they will in time. A re-bound rally is in force - - the strength of which is very positive. I spend time looking back at the price movement and compare them with my Fundamental Valuation notes. (AMZN) is on or near its recent highs of $405. Current price is $316. The current pull-back is going to do two things: a) be stronger than investors would like and b) tell us if the Top has been made.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (AMZN) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to do their homework and "Invest Wisely." Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), like most all other quality Companies, has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of) (AMZN): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48666896104&a=311129746

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Discipline and Patience) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Internet - Commerce Industry Group that I focus on: (AMZN), (GRPN), (EBAY), (NFLX), (OWW), (IACI), (PCLN), (MELI), (MCOX), (PETS), (OSTK).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    If I can be of help with guidance and direction for your portfolio(s) just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    AMZN, GRPN, EBAY, NFLX, OWW, IACI, PCLN, MELI, MCOX, PETS, OSTK

    Apr 14 10:07 AM | Link | Comment!
  • DuPont Company -- Strong And Charging But For How Long Is A Good Question

    DuPont Company -- Strong and Charging but for How Long is a Good Question

    DuPont clearly is one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies in this time frame. It is on a Strong Hold but my Indicators are breaking down. The current rally is showing strength, but I have my longer-term fundamental and technical doubts about holding for the long-term. There is reason to monitor DuPont closely in the coming weeks.

    My previously written articles on DD (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for DuPont can be found below and is about 38% per year for the past five years.

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My weekly study of all my High Profile Basic Materials / Chemicals is complete and there is little support for notably higher prices in the making.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.72%

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission.

    Income and Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Note: The Difference Between You and the Pros: Clearly you should be profitable and making money by owning Dupont. Via my Emails, I have found that many Investors are struggling with other securities they are holding. I have offered direction to hundreds of Investors and can share with you why you are perhaps holding losing securities and provide a conservative and low risk remedy.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Dupont Company and other Basic Materials Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (DD) is in a recovering Rally and not doing what I have expected. The Company has supported my Forecasts for many years, so be prudent and careful at this time.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Chemical Companies, the securities have in recent month become both favorable and un-favorable. That is often a good indicator that further upside is waning. Dupont Company is currently relatively strong Technically but I have reservations about my Fundamental Valuation, therefore, I have placed it on an Initial Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD in anticipation of taking profits.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (DD) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are going down-hill. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company for a long-term Hold.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Even with this fine Company, my Indicators are notably breaking down. It is only currently near its highs of $67. This current rally (October 2012 to Date) will likely be coming to an end in the coming few weeks or less.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (DD) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Dupont Company (DD)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to Invest Wisely. Dupont Company (DD) has taken some big hits over the years. Have a look.

    URL for (20-years of -(DD): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75871129104&a=330115213

    Selectivity

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Chemical Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (DD), (DOW), (LYB), (HUN), (CE), (PX), (EMN).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    DD, DOW, LYB, HUN, CE, PX, EMN

    Tags: DD, DOW, LYB, HUN, CE, PX, EMN
    Apr 14 9:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Income Investors – Only! - - 5-Year Performance - - April 14th. - Update

    Income Investors - Only! - - 5-Year Performance - - April 14th. - Update

    My logo for over 50 Years is: "Investing Wisely."

    There is almost always a group of Companies and ETFs that are "In-Favor" for the "INCOME" Investor. Companies that will provide - Both - Good Dividend Income and Consistent Annual Growth.

    These Companies are not ready to Buy every day or even every week but definitely at Bullish Inflection Points as they occur throughout the year. (If you can understand this sentence - YOU will be a very profitable Investor)!

    Yes, I have read the "Book" and hundreds like it over the years. None of them, I said "none of them" ever impressed me with their advice. As a professor of finance and economics you would likely be surprised to know I believe there is a BIG difference between what the books offer and being in the trenches of actually profitable managing assets.

    I suggest Senior and Retired Investors are getting plain old vanilla when you deserve to be getting a much better taste (performance) for your risk of investing your nest-egg. Yes, Income Investing has risk, but risk can be mitigated to almost zero if you use your head, are patient and are a disciplined Investor. I hope you will let me share with you how I get consistent annual results. (Please see my Table below).

    My Performance over these many years has been good to me and my Clients with few set-backs. The table below listing of ten (10) specific Companies is clearly strong performance but also prudently attained. My performance goes back to the late 1950s! Click here for that long-term record and narrative.

    Asset Allocation Model Performance

    You will want to review all four of my Asset Allocation Model Performance for a perspective of my focus on "results" for my Clients. Here are my four URLs / Links for recently published performance:

    Income: ( This article is my most current performance for my "Income" Allocation ).

    Income & Growth: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2780143-income-and-growth-portfolios-5-year-performance-record-march-24th-update

    Growth: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2799313-growth-5-year-performance-record-march-31st-update

    Aggressive Growth: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/2818083-aggressive-growth-portfolios-5-year-performance-april-7th-update

    How I Go About Producing Consistent Annual Profits for my Clients

    Well Forecasted and "In-Favor" Companies will always outperform in Bull Markets and sometimes hang in there in Bear Markets. I am a BIG believer in CASH, which is not often found with most Financial Advisors and Asset Managers. When my Forecast for a given Income Company suggests that is more prudent to Hold-Cash - that is where I go. Holding a descending security just has never made sense to me even when they pay a decent dividend!

    I like working / doing my analytics on Income Companies / ETFs and maintain a list of over 200 of them to monitor. The Table below will give you an idea of what can be expected from my providing you guidance and direction with your portfolios.

    Income Companies that are "In-Favor" are easy for me to identify and I make it a policy of always have at least a twenty or thirty in my "Income List" as possible / future Buys. That may be several months ahead but remember that is one of the primary reasons I Forecast. Oh, yes these Companies and ETFs can turn Bearish and when they do over the ensuing months they can hurt you Big-Time. And that is why I offer a 20-year Chart (for Perspective) in most all of my articles.

    When Inflection Points occur it is quite easy for me to identify those that will "greatly outperform" for that Rally or Pull-Back. This makes my work both enjoyable and fun, by following and frequently Forecasting those Companies that are on my "List."

    My on going objective is to identify changing trends with in my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group. With that in my pocket, I can make well prepared and informed investment decisions to Buy / Sell or even Short-Sale / Cover.

    Income Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Table w/ 5 Year Performance

    The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking, what I call "Decent Income Performance" - - please Email me to open a dialog - there is no obligation. I do not manage Client accounts with less than $100,000 in the Clients Portfolio. There are exceptions. . .

    (click to enlarge)

    My management of "Income" Assets is unique. If I cannot identify a Company that is paying a decent dividend that has a Forecasted Upside, e.g. projected growth I Hold-Cash. Holding Cash presents a very low income flow but I believe that owning a Company that is paying a "decent" dividend during times when my Forecast is Bearish is definitely not following my logo. My logo is "Investing Wisely." There are very few times over the past 50 years that I have professionally managed the assets of my Clients that there was not some Companies to Hold.

    You will note that the 10 Companies in the below Table have Dividend Payments ranging from a low of about 1.50% to over 5.00%. I wish to stress that a few percentage points of Dividend Payments can be erased in just a day or two of trading. My, point which differs greatly from most Financial Analysts / Asset Managers is that - - If you are not holding a Company that is clearly Appreciating and appears to have the propensity to continue to Appreciate, you are going to substantially restrict your over-all profitability - - that means both disappointment and LOSSES!

    These are all conservative Companies but they historically they take the same "HITS" on the downside as other more growth oriented securities. This is my way of saying: Guidance and Direction in your "Income Portfolio" is equally as important in your "Growth Portfolio."

    Notes for Table:

    * You will alsonote in most of my Articles I use the words "Favorable" and "Un-Favorable - - I maintain just these two Asset Management Lists. ( please see the below "Report Card." )

    * Bullish ("Alerts" and Bearish "Warnings" are each subdivided into either - "Initial" - or - "Strong." The time-frame from my "Initial" to my "Strong" ("Alert" / "Warning") provides me sufficient lead time for selecting the currently most ("Favorable" & " Un-Favorable") e.g. PROFITABLE ( Bullish & Bearish ) Investment Choices. That time frame may be weeks or even a couple months!

    * Fundamental Valuation and Technical Analytics calculations are (quantitatively computed) and then translated by formula into a Rating (ranging from: ( 0 to 100 ). Just like in school: A's are 90 - 100 and F's are 59 - 0 and thus the Letter Grade.

    * Opinion is my on going strategy of Analytics to - Hold - an investment for as long as possible. Those - Holding Periods - prior to Selling or Covering are very strategic and effective. Alternatively, - Hold-Cash - is my investment strategy that demands that - - until I have both a General Market Bullish or Bearish Inflection Points coincident with the Industry Group and its component Company - I Hold CASH ! Yes, I " Cherry Pick " very carefully! Bullish (Buying / Selling) - or - Bearish (Shorting / Covering) - - Formal Recommendations or Positions Being Held are never provided Publicly, they are exclusively for my Clientele.

    * As an Ex-Professor of Finance & Economics I refer to my Securities Rating Procedures as a "Report Card" - - ( A's are for Buying and F's are for Shorting ) and anything in between is MUTE. My Report Cards for each Index / Company / ETF, etc. permits me to remain Focused on the Companies / ETFs with the highest probability for Profit!

    I am seeking new Clients and Consulting relationships. Please feel free to open an Email dialog. I hope you are interested.

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    Companies: SPY, QQQ, DIA, AET, CLF, COP, DUK, EXC, MO, NEM, PPL, SE, UNH

    Tags: SPY, QQQ, DIA, AET, CLF, COP, DUK, EXC, MO, NEM, PPL, SE, UNH
    Apr 14 9:16 AM | Link | Comment!
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