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Steven Bauer
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My Biography: In 2001, I retired and now permanently reside in Mexico. After 5 years of managing my own affairs, I resumed my career in 2007 as a financial analyst / asset manager. My career began while in University as a – manual chartist for some wealthy Investors, who had a fancy math formula... More
My blog:
Investing Wisely
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  • Travelers Companies, Inc. – Caution Is Warranted And There Is No Insurance

    Travelers Companies, Inc. - Caution is Warranted and there is No Insurance

    Travelers Companies has been, I said "has been" one of the leading Dow 30 - Industrials composite Companies. It is now on a very weak Hold, and my Fundamental and Technical Indicators are breaking down. My analytics endorses the above title.

    I suggest it is topping again like in December and that is BEARISH.

    My previously written articles on TRV (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Travelers can be found in my table below and is about 31% per annum for the last 5 years. (not including dividends).

    Look at the Profits for TRV - Over the Years

    It is simple, all Companies Cycle from "Favorable" to "Un-Favorable" and in between, they are "Also Rans." This horse-racing metaphor is the best guidance I have to explain how to know the Good / Bad and the Ugly for all securities on the planet.

    Travelers - has: a) gone WAY UP (too much!) in 20 years - - BUT - - (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." The Company - has: a) gone Up in 20 years (study the peak to peak and trough to trough); b) is UP over 100% in Favorable time-frames; is DOWN over 50% in Un-Favorable time-frames; and c) has spent years as an "Also-Ran." What a Waste of time and money during "Un-Favorable and Also-Ran time frames - don't you think?

    The Company like so many others has taken some big hits over the years!

    Have a long look at this Chart, it tells you a story about how to make and preserve your profits. Click on TRV. It is not hard to understand how Bear Markets can cause financial set-backs for years and in many cases those set-backs are never recovered. I have over 50 years of successfully doing what I call "preventative maintenance."

    Make just a 5 - 10 minute Study of this chart and the others I provide in similar articles you will be convinced that "Being Selective" with the "What" and the "When" of investing your money you will become a very profitable Investor. It is my clear answer to being a Consistently Profitable for my Clients. If you are not "convinced" - - then - - stay with your mutual funds and remain an Investor willing to accept Up and Down performance similar to this Company over the coming years. I suggest that - You deserve Better . . .

    ( Please go-to my Wednesday - Thumb-Nail - for my articles on ""Sectors." )

    You can do better / have it all and I can teach you how !

    More Support for My Dow 30 Forecasting Accuracy

    The following article supports my Methodology of "Investing Wisely" and with superior and consistent annual profits. Just Click.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 2.31%

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Travelers Companies, Inc. and other Property-Casualty Insurance Companies are tracking the marketplace well.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you would like guidance and direction to "Invest Wisely" in my "Income & Growth" Asset Allocation Model, please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing superior performance with a very low threshold of risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon your email request).

    If you own or are considering owning property-casualty insurance companies, the securities are increasingly becoming a mixed bag. Travelers is currently relatively strong technically, but I have reservations about my fundamental valuation. It is on my Stong Bearish Forecast - "Warning."

    My Current Opinion is to Hold in anticipation of taking profits. This may be at even higher prices, but there will be an end and time to sell, but that is not currently in my forecast. That is a balancing of my below three (weighted) pillars of research.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. Earnings continue to be only moderate.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35%): Within this outstanding company, my indicators remain strong. It is only slightly off its highs of $91, is selling for $86.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for TRV !

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Property-
    Casualty Insurance Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: (TRV), (PRG), (ACE), (MBI), (ALL), (XL), (CB), (BRO), (AGO), (HTH), (ORI), (AJG), (AXS), (FAF), (UVE), (OTCQB:AFAI), (L). And, more . . .

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    TRV, PRG, ACE, MBI, ALL, XL, CB, BRO, AGO, HTH, ORI, AJG, AXS, FAF, UVE, AFAI, L

    Tags: TRV, ACE, MBI, ALL, XL, CB, BRO, AGO, HTH, ORI, AJG, AXS, FAF, UVE, AFAI, L
    Apr 21 9:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Pan American Silver Corp. -- Temporarily Out Of Favor

    Pan American Silver Corp. -- Temporarily Out of Favor

    Pan American Silver is not a strong Silver Mining Company. There has not been a prudent time for Buying despite the recent 50+% appreciation. Yes, I also witnessed the near 100% rally in July to October 2012 and that was about as high of risk I could describe.

    My first job as an asset manager is to mitigate risk and profit when risky opportunities presents themselves. Right now the Mining Companies and Silver is simple on a very close watch.

    At this writing, I like Gold better than Silver, but Silver is more juicy and carries more risk.

    My previously written articles on PAAS (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance for Pan American Silver can be found below and is well over 20% per year for the last 5 years.

    My management objective is to identify changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    A Special Note for Seniors & Retired Investors - Dividend Yield: 3.89% (Talk to me before you get Excited about Buying - Please !)

    I believe you folks deserve much better service and investment direction and guidance that either Wall Street or the Brokerage Community is / has been providing. Being a retired Asset Manager / Financial Analyst is a joy for me to assist you and meet your investment - needs, goals and objective. Peace of Mind for you is my mission. Let me know when I can offer you support.

    Income & Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Pan American Silver Corp. and other Silver Mining Sector Companies are tracking well. Although (PAAS) remains in a Strong Down Trend however, it has always been an excellent contributor to my Analytics.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    Special Note: In this article on Silver I have very profitable completed Forecasting and Owning select Silver securities during the above Bullish Cycle ( April 2009 through August 2011 ) and am now working in and with the current Bearish Cycle.

    I do not share with the Investing Public my Short Sale Positions during Bearish Cycles - they are exclusively for my Clients with an Asset Allocation Model of "Aggressive Growth."

    However, I do continue to share my Forecasts with all. As for Formal Recommendations - they are private thing between myself and my Clients.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright as you may think! (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Silver Mining Companies or ETFs, the securities are definitely a mixed bag and mostly not very compelling for me to own. Pan American Silver Corp. is currently weak Technically. I have analytics regarding my Fundamental Valuation, but I have kept it on my Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning" List for over 2 years now.

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a future Buying Opportunity. Yes, I said "Buying" opportunity but don't get excited quite yet. Jumping the gun could be very costly.

    * Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics for my Fundamental Valuations play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of (PAAS) are not as bad as they were and are improving. They are definitely not as positive as perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are improving but currently VERY Un-Impressive. That could change but not for the foreseeable future.

    * Technically - ( weighting - - 35% ): This Mining Company rallies nicely for the current year, but my Indicators are notably breaking down. Just off its recent highs of $15 is not something to get excited about - YET! It is already back $12+ and descending. The next rally in Silver may be coming soon and that will tell a compelling story as to the future direction of the price of (PAAS). Pan American Silver remains a Company you do not want in your portfolio.

    * Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (PAAS) !

    - - -

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) has taken some big hits over the years.

    URL for (20-years of -(PAAS): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAAS&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p21473785359&a=316931583

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Silver Mining Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently: (PAAS), (SLW), (HL), (BVN), (EXK), (CDE), (SSRI), (AG), (GPL), (AXU), (FSM), (SVLC), (MVG), (ASM).

    Note: Should you have interest in my professional guidance and direction for your Portfolios, please Email Me with your questions or thoughts: senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com.

    For Daily Updates and a Deeper View into my work / Analytics, you might want to Click and Scroll Down to my "Thumb-Nail" Articles within my personal blog.

    Please spend some time reading my articles for a perspective of their and also viewing my Bio before making inquiries. Sharing a bit about yourself and your financial and needs, goals and objectives would be appreciated.

    A relationship between You and Your Asset Manager must be a "Win / Win" affair. You get the Performance and the Education and I get paid for my Analytics / Work and Experience.

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    PAAS, SLW, HL, BVN, EXK, CDE, SSRI, AG, GPL, AXU, FSM, SVLC, MVG, ASM

    Tags: PAAS, SLW, HL, BVN, EXK, CDE, SSRI, AG, GPL, AXU, FSM, SVLC, MVG, ASM
    Apr 20 11:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Silver Trust - - IShares - ETF (SLV) -- Semi-Monthly Update W/ 5-Year Performance – Patience Will Be Rewarded

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) -- Semi-Monthly Update w/ 5-Year Performance - Patience Will Be Rewarded

    In December, January and February - I Shared: "Silver could have a rally off of its current lows to the upside again, but caution is your first consideration. This all occurred as forecast.

    I also shared: "I won't get excited about buying Silver for awhile longer because trying to buy a Commodity like Silver just off its lows is usually a very expensive and not very bright investment strategy."

    At this writing Silver is being a difficult sister to Gold. Gold could rally soon. I said "could" with no current or sufficient support for Buying. That could change.

    My previously written articles on SLV (just click) provide you the history of my forecasting, its accuracy and support for my performance. For over 50 years my management objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. I simple want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this company and its industry peers.

    My Performance (my 5-Year Table) for iShares Silver Trust is available by clicking: ( SLV - Performance ) I treat this ETF just like any other Company / ETF, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my Clients to Cash when my Forecast dictates.

    My management objective is to identify the ever-changing trends for my Forecasting Analytics. Simple stated, I want to have current notes to quickly refer to on the anticipated direction of this Sector and Industry Group.

    Income & Growth Investors

    My Mission is to provide guidance and direction for conservatively providing consistent annual and superior profitable results for each Formal Recommendation I make to my Clients.

    Forecast w/ 5 Year Performance

    Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF and other Mining Companies are tracking Silver well. Although Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is in a strong Down-Trend / Bearish Cycle, it is always an excellent contributor to my Analytics. The July to date Rally my be terminating and yet there are Bullish signals being flashed. Be Patient and stay with me. I accept Email questions from serious Investors, not Traders.

    Note: The below Table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth & Income - Asset Allocation Model" - - please Email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of Risk.

    (click to enlarge)

    My Current Forecast is not as bright and shiny as you might wish!

    There are many, what I call "irresponsible" articles being written on precious metals that are grossly misleading. An example would be, I just read an article saying: "Silver will be going to $100 very soon." If you like that kind of advice, I doubt you will like what I share each and every day in SeekingAlpha.com and other Financial Blogs. (I will be more specific upon request).

    If you own or are considering owning Mining Companies - or - Silver / ETFs, the securities are currently not a pretty picture. Prudent investing just does not support ownership at this time. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF is currently very weak Technically and I have reservations about my very weak Fundamental Valuations. I placed it on a Strong Bearish Forecast - "Warning." That was way back in mid 2011. Not Bad - Forecasting (don't you think)?

    My Current Opinion is to HOLD-CASH in anticipation of a Bottom which at this stage cannot be Forecast. As far as it reaching "$100 soon" - - I strongly suggest that much will have to take place before that objective can even get started or be realized. I will keep you posted on my "Opinion" and I believe you will be well pleased.

    Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My Analytics (weighting) for my Fundamental Valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my Valuations of most all of the Silver Mining Companies (SLV) are not as positive at perhaps you are being told by other sources. Plainly stated they are Improving and then Descending again. This does not make for a positive fundamental valuation of any Company.

    You might also want or check out my Article on Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS). Just Click on the symbols.

    Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Even with this fine ETF, my Indicators have broken down and are possible on the mend. (SLV) is only currently slightly off of its declining highs of $24 selling for $20+. This is a time frame that you will want to - - stay tuned.

    Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of Research is one that is ALWAYS distorted to the Positive by most all financial analysts. I believe that is because they are afraid of being Bearish. I Am NOT! My articles on "Reality" are supportive of this - have a look.

    I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for (SLV) !

    A Twenty Year Perspective of Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV)

    It has NOT always been like you are being told by so many who do not take the time to "Investing Wisely" and doing their homework well. Silver Trust - - iShares - ETF (SLV) and Silver Spot Price has taken some big hits over the years. The entire period of 1980 through 2001 Gold was in a declining posture. That means, you lost money if you held Gold for over 20 years. It is no different for Silver or any other security. That is why I have such a disciplined Investment Methodology.

    URL for (20-years of Silver - Spot Price and a bit less for - (SLV): http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07896351310&a=310617222

    Selectivity

    "Selectivity" is what I preach (along with Patience and Discipline) and is what separates the Average Investor and Mutual Funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "Selectivity."

    (SLV), (PAAS), (SLW), (SSRI), (SWC), (AG)

    For a Daily Input and Deeper View of my Work / Analytics you might want to Click, and scroll down to my "Thumb-Nail" articles:

    Personal Blog. I post every day. Just Click - - > http://investingwisely-rotation.blogspot.mx/?spref=tw

    If I can be of help just Email me. Serious Investors Only - Please!

    senorstevedrmx@yahoo.com

    Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

    Dr. Steve

    SLV, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SWC, AG,

    Tags: SLV, PAAS, SLW, SSRI, SWC, AG
    Apr 20 10:28 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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